1 NTRODUCTION

In 1988. James Hansen caught the 1111111111l1.111~

and policy 111al1e1's when he testified 1111111111 .1 511-1111-



    
  
   

I
unusually hot summer 1i1ftl1at year was evitlenu ll

already under 11111?. Since tltL?H. tl?tt? allegctl llil't'rising; levels 1.1l'ereenl111use gases has 111111111111 ?l11' 1 1? i

P011111 WW 111 11111111: and 1111 the international s1'1'111'.

With a steatn' anti. compelhne sue-.1111 of evidence 1.111.131 at
11t climate change apocalypse, 111111'e1-1er, 1111111111: . 11

predictions 111 tlrastic manning made 113' c111111'1ut111'
cli111ate dynamics.

1

Nevertheless, policy makers have 1:1111tiI'111c1l 111 11111-1- 1
clin?iate chanee 111iti151ation strategies, despite the 11
scientisisi Though most nations have bacltecl 1111111 1121;- 1
?targets and timetables? for e111issions reductions 11111112.] 1
conference, 11111111; responses are still heine consitlt-rcci. :11- 111
energyr taxes. Thus, 131111111111 change has become as 1111111112112

as an e111'ir1111111e11tal concern.

The prevaili111?I international caution 1111111111 strict 1'1'111'1
reduce greenhouse 1.111s emissions reflects a recoenition 1.1" 1:11-
that must he considered when addressing climate chine-e 
across the alohe have earned that measures such [11: a 1'11'1'11

could severely clisrupt domestic econ11111ies anti 1111111111111. 11:. 1:

Global climate change is positioned to l1ec11111e a 1 e1'111'11e 1
and do111esti1' economics and politics in the near 11111111: 11:
the United States and other nations make 11111111111111: 1:111:1111-
dramatic impact on America's future.

This broehurc highlights important aspects ot the cl1111111~ 1 11
the words of scientists, economists and other cart-11.11 11i111 
in various areas 111 the debate.

 

 

 

 

.LOBAL 

    
   
 
   

?There are ominous signs that the earth?s [not
change dramatically and these changes may; portend [ls-or,
production?with serious political implications for just about tor-mi

This statement appeared in a Newsweek article warning: of ti.
year was 1975, and the alleged danger was global cooling. ?1 - 
catastrophic warming resemble closely those made in tln?
cooling. Claims about global cooling remind us or the

complicate our understanding of climate change science. 
the need to approach global warming with caution out al i

justify drastic policy responses. i

?When meteorologists take an average of temperature 
find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for rim
The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological (Lass
increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are 
harbinger of another ice age. 

From ?Another Ice Age," Time, June 24, 1974.

?The facts have emerged, in recent years and months .,
pastice ages. Tho)! imply that the threat of a new ice age must i
nualiear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for 

From ?In the Grip of a New Ice Age," by Nigel Calder,
5 international Wildlife, Jul? 19?5.
?The cooling has already killed hundreds of tlioasano
It?has already made feed and fuel more precious tints i

buy. I it continues and no strong measures are 
will carts ;world famine, world chaos, and p: h-alrlja

by year 2000. 

4 {Ms hr Pom? 1976

 
  



   

  

   
  

 

 

 

 

 

  
   
 
 
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
   
 
 
  
 
   
 
   
  
 
  

IDELLING

111s called general circulation models 
{inns to the dynamics nicli111ure ci1n11t-i; -
111111, the results are only as reliable. 11s the 11mm- 1111 

icientlt' sophisticated for purposes of predictitn- .. in.

iirculation computer models used to project climate chc:
basis for policy decisions because they do not fu't't it
as cloud cover, ocean interactirms, and . i
'rrnnot he duplicated by the models.?1

L11 :hai f{Iiitnnte Change: hat is 
'gtnn International Energy-r Group, 1992.

injections of large warming depend on projected large tmy.
1d mechanisms within the models tt-?hieh act to 
increasing: CO2. The projections depend on nit-cum
and energy amplification THECiit?L?tliats . .
to he a severe misrepresentation of the relet'tg-ir jigs-1
data suggest that these processes magi he acting; in y: 

ll ent models produce. Under the circumstances, the 51- ~dir-
not disprooen, is also without a meaningful scientific Fm 

l1ser1ce of Scientific Basis," National Geom'tthhic Research anti
1? ion, by Lindeen, professor of 111eteort1loey tit
,usetts Institute of Technology, 1993.

nakers must be aware of the severe limitations oi :91; 1 .
may prrimide some useful information on 
tmerican Meteorological Society and the Royal My

concluded in their respective policy statements tho: 1.1: -

oviding detailed predictions at highly localize..- -

if policies regarding global change are going to he 
dels, it is absolutely imperative that the policy ntala
sses, and limitations of the esisti11ggeneral circulath 

he Heated Dehate, in; Robert Bolling, director of the
of Climatology at Arizona State University, Will

    
     

  
 
 
 
 
 
 
    
   
   
   
  
 
  
  
   

"It took meteorology nearly forty :?thtiTI?i to {no 
numerical weather forecasts for as little as a 
weather prediction e?ectively ends a day after it starts; II1II 1111.-
are wishful thinking. With that kind of record. 
promise rapid advances in climate modeling. 
magnitude more complex than the physics of 111:" j.
atmosphere; if we Iwere to be realistic 
tentative initial results some twenty years 

Professor H. Tentlekes1 former teseilttli I. I .I 

Institute, from the Journal of the Royal II"One ofthe major shortcomings ofthe use of I. Iii:- 

 

dealer to make a IOU-year forecast in a reasonable II 

number of months the surface of the Earth has to he I1I.I 
11 1 PI) The unavoidable oversimpli?cation Is that each hi:- .I. .II:
I I :cl1araetenzed by only one temperature ?12m Intities affectingthe climate This poor denree 
.. tapproximation of the reality that it II 

1. . rigs, how severe they may be.?

 

 

 

 

cover,1one for average height above sea level and also 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From "Science and Fiction of the Greenhouse I. I II

by Frits Boetehet of the Global Institute For tlII I - 

 

 

 

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ll.

I?1Modellers will continue to develop and. II 

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Is to run them and more observations to 1'1 in

indulgence of society to recognize that 

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ascoupling of higher-Iresoliition I 

-. 1 1 subnwdels will take a decade or more: to ale-II elop

 

 

      
  
 
  
 
  

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.. II..-

Fromm-Ibo Science ofClimate Model I. 
-. I It 3153th Schneider from Global Weaning The 

 

 

 

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- past eeiitin?jt], the temperature tif the planet ttjipett'ts 
n?ees Celsius; much of this the}: he explained
'eenhtittse fttettj?t?s. ln atlclititm, full}; 75 pett'ei'lt Hf the 
tieetii'i'eil hid?{WC the end (if the Seetmtl \Vtii'ltl lune liefrite
ses it'ei?e tiiltletl ten the titmtisjihei?e. Ft.ti"tlietm.iite., the 
'Us is sei'itiitsl}f Challenged hji 
thtit shew essentially iiti tit till. . fl'he
le tlesjiite it public perspective it] the Ctml't?tftt'jij the 
lie-titles little suppm?t: felt the Ultl'w Hf the 

lie Liliilitil Temperature Data," Geiigttipliie Itl?
Linn, by Hubert Belling, jti, direetut {if the Office infClitniitiilnqt- hart-t
professor tit Atimna State 1995.

 

 

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I PRUDENT RESPONSE

The jury is clearly out on the validity of predictions of an t'HlI"
effect. However, uncertainty is not a justification for tiller-m,
must act in the face of uncertaint?,I to craft a climate t?l'titt?ltii:
that is consistent with 0111' country's econtnnic and ism-?in a tin..-
same time, further research on climate chi-tinge 17- i
lingering questions.

The consensus among scientists, economists and policy. mu! r:
understanding of climate change improves, the Linimtl 1:
drastic action, Instead, the United States should talus liltin':
country achieve its economic goals as well as reduce grew-tit; 
Examples of such measures include the Environmental lain:
voluntary ?green" programs and technology ct'it'iperation t:
under the National Energy Policy Act.

five-year delay on major policy decisions regartiirt 
will lead to a small amount of additional warming in the 
will the additional warming be? The calculations Sl?lt?i?tt' that .
limiting carbon emissions will make the world warmer in the tier-it 
oneetenth of a degree, compared to how warm it iirtniltl l:
additional warming of oneetenth of a degree in the 3 
small penalty to pay' for better infomation on government tleti.
unwisely, can be extraordinarily costly to the US. economy.?

All

From ?Global Warming Update: Recent Scientific Fin-tie
by the George C. Marshall Institute, Washington, ?ii-ii,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

is time. There is little risk in delaying pol ichL I'se 'ponses LII
there is every {.1pr tation that scientifiL 
In the next decadeAbout Greenhouse WL Inning: Look L, 
Mil Roger Rev elle ILLII

I ride Lat sLientists atmospheric and 
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agenda the United Nations LII 
being developed by environmental activist LLILLI ..
policy initiatives derive from high If; uncertain 
I based on the unsupported assumption that catastrophic

I I the burning offossil fuel and requires immediate action

5- disturbed that activists, anxious to stop energs and eL II
ahead vith drastic policies without taking note of recent . .
ILce. fear that the rush to impose global regulations It? .L .
I on the world economy, standard of living, and health care. .

eqaences falling upon developing countries and the poor. 

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letter signed by more than 50 scientists, most of are or more in
I positions in the American Meteorologieal Society, 199 1.

LifIcl Jase for a greenhouse LLvaLILnLing is too uncertain to II: .

 

 

 


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