CLIMATE WATCH THE BULLETIN OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE COALITION Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1994 Thomas F. McLarty. Congressman John on climate change. These countries U.S. ASKS INC TO 5 RETHINK TREATY he US. State Department has declared that the UN. Framework Convention on Climate Change doesn?t go far enough in dealing with reductions in greenhouse gas emis- sions after the year 2000. A statement by the US. delegation to the Intergovern- Dingell, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, also expressed his concern in a letter to the State Department. (See page 2.) Several countries including Aus- i tralia, Brazil, China, Japan, Russia, Sau- di Arabia and Kuwait agree with industry representatives that the current commitments are more than adequate given the lack of scientific information also said that they prefer to wait until 1995, when the Intergovernmental Pan- el on Climate Change will deliver its next scientific assessment, before decid- ing what needs to be done on the issue. The INC meeting was another in a series being held before the first Confer- ence of Parties to the Framework Con- vention, scheduled for March 1995 in Berlin. . mental Negotiating Committee (INC) said the climate treaty, signed at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, is ?inadequate? and called on the INC to ?begin a will lead to con- Qeration of future actions." 0 specific recommendations were offered. The statement came at a meeting of the INC held from February 7 to 18 in Geneva, Switzerland. The delegation quoted the purpose of the Framework Convention ?the stabiliza- tion of greenhouse gas con- centrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"? and said that these requirements are not being met. Stating that ?this threat will not disappear in the year 2000," the delega- tion also said that the current goal of the Clinton Climate Change Action Plan to reduce greenhouse gases to their 1990 levels by the year 2000 is not adequate in scope. he Global Climate Coali- expressed serious concern over the policy change, calling the move ?inappropriate" and ?premature" in a letter to White House Chief of Staff Concerned about the impending policy change by the State Department in the week preceding the INC meeting, the Global Climate Coalition sent the following letter to White House Chief of Staff Thomas F. McLarty. ?The Global Climate Coalition (GCC) has been briefed by members of the State Department that the US. delegation to the 9th lntergovemmental Negotiating Committee (INC) meeting will state that the commitments of the industrialized countries under the Framework Convention on Climate Change are 'not adequate.? We are very concerned this may be perceived as the ?rst step toward mandatory targets and timetables. ?The GCC believes this is an inappropriate policy position for the US. government and that it is premature to consider reopening the treaty because: There is no new scienti?c information to jmtify such a change in policy. The Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCIZ) Second Assessment Report is not due to be completed until the fourth quarter of 1995. Scienti?c data since the signing of the Framework Convention does not support increased concern over the possibility of man?induced global warming. The relevant technical, social and economic impacts of climate change and the cost of mitiv gation efforts are not established with any reasonable degree of certainty. Mitigation efforts which go beyond those called for in the treaty and President Clinton?s Climate Change Action Plan could have a signi?cant negative effect on the US. and international economy. The Climate Grange Action Plan, with its correct emphasis on voluntary actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is less than four months old. Many bminesses and trade associations have indicated that they will participate in costeffective voluntary action plan programs, such as Climate Challenge, Motor Challenge and Green Lights. To conclude that the efforts now being takenare'notadequate,? of voluntary actions and could discourage participation by many organizations in these programs. National Action Plans by developed countries, including the US. are currently unavailable Alloftheseplans must be evaluated before a determination of 'adequacy' can be made. Warm) Executive Director '5 Column CLIMATE TREATY CHANGES MAY STIFLE ECONOMIC GROWTH he Global Climate Coalition Is very concerned about statements made by some countries, including the United States, that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change does not go far enough in dealing with reductions in greenhouse gas emis- sions after the year 2000. The US. delegation to the recent Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) meeting, held in Geneva from February 7-18, stated that the climate treaty, signed at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, is ?inadequate? because it does not address the post-2000 period. The U.S. delegation called on the INC to 'begin a process that will lead to consideration of future actions,? although no specific recorrunendations were offered. However, statements offered by Germany and several developing countries went even further, calling for global carbon taxes, international mow vehicle fuel economy standards and extraordinary reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from OECD coun- tries by early next century. Such calls for changes to the convention are inappropriate and would increase the burdens on maJor industrialized counties. As some nations noted, the international commu~ nity has no information that would warrant commitments 18shortmonthsago a the 'Earth Summit? in Rio de Janeiro. In many respects, scienti?c uncertainty about global climate change may be increasing, not diminishing, even for very basic components of the science. For example, one recent Scienu'?cAmen'can article concluded, "We don?t really know what?s happening with respect to CO). the most important man-made green- house gas.? Despite much effort to date, the reality is that mudtofglobal climatechareescienoeand modeling isvery much in an embryonic state. Public policy on climate diange, particularly in imemaional fora, is getting far ahead ofscienceandeasilyoould lead in policy- making. UnitedStates remaining isnies. Interna- tionalwlationsand?ortaxes. Allofthiswithwtanade- qua: mderrtanding of the underlying science and econom- iclrmactsoftluedecisions, city limit economic growth worldwide. indeed U.S. Misty is already working with goverrvnent on designing a variety of proguns promote a wide range of vohattary actions. The actions will reduce the growth of emissions in a col decilve way both in the United ?NMIMIasfac?mthMofhch- (bi-dc-) L?l NATE ?All? McLartyLetter i There has been no 'procen' for the development of: U.S. position on Such Include careful evaluation of the View: of the public. the business and scientific males. the members of Congreu and the various agencres within the federal government working with voluntary wognmc goodfaith withtheUS. government in the developmentof the ueaty.and Cluttge Action Planandus implementation. Wcurge position.? 0 Rep. Dingell Questions Climate Policy Shift Oceans and International Environmental and Scienti?cAffairs Eleanor G. Constable, Rep. John Dingell tD?Mtchigan), chair- concernsabouttheunexpected triesapoliticladvantage,? Dingellsald. ?fe-rutheywill spotllditofithekdiortcomhm' corin- BLASTS LITICIZED SCIENCE ineteen ninety-three was the year of the backlash about environmental hype and hoax. The quality papers articles that questioned some of the assumptions about envr- ronmental disasters and pointed out for the first time that there were other views, that the scientific community was not in agreement on many of these 50 said Fred Singer, executive direc- tor of the Science and Environmental Policy Project in Washington, DC, in an interview for 'Nightline" last month. What made the ?Nightline' story so interesting, in addition to Dr. Singers comments, was the source of the seg- ment itself. According to Mr. Koppel, few weeks ago, Mr. Gore called to draw our attention to some of the forces, political and economic, behind hat he would regard as the anti-envi- mental movement.? It turned out that the vice president had been pitchinga story, not about his views on global warming, but on his view of the skeptic who disagreed with him. "The vice president suggest- ed that we might want to look into connections between scientists who scoff at the so-called greenhouse effect, for We, and the coal indus- try.? Comedian with other special interests were brougln up as well by Mr. Gore. Mr. Koppel went on to whine Mr. SCIENCE UPDATE LATEST DATA SHOW WARMING FORECASTS INACCURATE verage global temperatures since 1979 have risen only one- fourth as much as was predicted by theories of an enhanced greenhouse effect, said Drs. John Christy and Richard McNider of the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) Earth Sys- tem Science Laboratory. Supported by a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAAJ, the UAH team has been analyz- ing NASA satellite data from the past 15 years. Their ?ndings show slight temper- ature drops over this period. The satellite data, which measure the temperatures of mostpointson Earthevery 12 hours, pro- vide more complete coverage of the globe than previous networks of surface based or balloon-launched thermometers. Critic of the UAH results say the tern- perature drop does not invalidate global warming predictions; rather, they say, it merely reflects the temporary cooling effectsofvolcanic emptions, such as El Chichon in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991,aswellastheEl Ninophenome- non in the Paci?c Ocean. To respond to these aitic, the UAH of at least 0.3 degrees Celsius per events and found a warming trend of 0.09 degrees Celsius (about 0.162 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. Climate models have predicted a warmmg trend decade. A trend as small as 0.09 degrees Celsrus per decade probably represents nothing more than natural vanatrons In the global climate, the UAH team concluded. ?But it could also be the magnitude of an enhanced greenhouse effect." ChrIsty said. If thIs posSIbIlIty proves true, how- ever, the potential for a dangerous future global warming still will be much lower than previously thought. ?The most rapid increase in greenhouse gases has been in the past is years. Since that follows more than 100 years of accumulated greenhouse gases, you would expect to see the greatest impact In the years since McNider said. The UAH team?s results appeared in the January 27 issue of Natureand were pre- sented on January 26 at the American Meteoroltgical Society/s FIfth Conference on Global Climate Change Studies In Nashville, Tennessee. 0 TheGCChasbeencorrvnitnibwk- mw?twa?WhCorw andtl'ieirundionalcorrmiyto White House to Hold Climate Change Conference in April On April 21, the eve of Earth Day, the White House will host a one?day climate change conference at George Washing- ton University. Although the agenda for the meeting is still tentative, Matt Gen- teel at the White House Office of Envi- ronmental Policy (OEP) said that it will be scheduled around a series of interac- tive ?break?out sessions.? The exact for- mat of these sessions will be determined by the agencies that lead them. OEP is also considering including a panel dis- several federal agencies, state and local governments, non-governmental organi- zations, utilities, and other private sector organizations, and hopes to have a guest list prepared by the end of March. OEP also has tentative plans to prepare a con- ference packet or some other type of solar activity. 0 Global Climate Coalition 1331 Ave, NW Suite 1500 - North Tower Washington. DC 200044703 cussion. OEP recently sent invitations to publication that will be available either during or after the conference. 0 For more informalion, call the White House Of?ce of Environmental Policy at 202/456-6224. Global Climate Change Conference The Air Waste Management Association, along with a host of other scientific societies and US. government agencies, is sponsoring a conference enti- tled ?Global Climate Change: Science, Policy, and Mitigation Strategies." The conference will be held April 5-8 in Phoenix, Arizona. The purpose of the conference is to bring together a group of people to exchange the latest information on the science, technology, policy, social and economic impacts, and mitigation/ adaptation strategies associated with global climate change. . For more information, call Pam McCalla at the Air Waste Management Association, 412/232-3444, or fax MARSHALL INSTITUTE FINDS No WARMING March 3, the George C. Marshall Institute released a study that casts doubt on 0 global warming. The report, written by former National Academy of Sciences President Frederick Seitz, listed the following findings: 0 Satellite data show ?insignificant temperature change in the last 15 years, despite high levels of [greenhouse gas] emissions." 0 The lifetime of atmospheric carbon dioxide a major factor in the greenhouse effect may be closer to 10 years than to the conventional estimate of 50 years. 0 There is a correlation between the rise and fall of the Earth's temperature and 'Wightline" a. 1 closing remarks. ?The issues have to be debated and settled on scientific grounds, not politics,? he said. ?The measure of good science is neither the politics of the scientist nor the people with whom the scientist associates. It is the immersion of hypotheses into the acid of truth." "There is some irony," said Mr. Kop- pel, ?in the fact that Vice President Core, one of the most scientifically lit- erate men to sit in the White House in this century, that he [sic] is resorting to political means to achieve what should ultimately be resolved on a purely sci- entific basis.? 0 Copies of the "Nightline? transcript are available from ClimCoaleorganizaionofbminss change. Wisrumryforrepro? Elton BrianHertzog MWM DeborahUebe John Bagwell Art Director: Drew Mitchell 0?09: 1331 Ave, NW Suite North Tower Washington, DC 20004-1703 For me My John Shlas, Executive Director, (202) 637-3158.