1995-2020 Global Scenarios 

1995-2020 Global Scenarios

The 1995 Global Scenarios were distributed to managers in Operating Companies and Central Offices in October 1995.
The Scenarios are in two volumes. The first volume covers the forces shaping the global environment and the two new
scenarios; the second volume focuses on topics of special interest. Below is a short introduction to the Scenarios.

The Scenarios begin with an analysis of forces which are seen to he almost ore-determined: the tomes of globalisation,
liberalisation. and technology. The phrase, 'There is No Altemative' (TINA). has been used to discuss the and reach
of these forces. It is also clear that these forces are impersonal and apparently beyond the control of individuals and even
national governments. The two new scenarios therefore ask the question 'What sort of society would be best able to
harness the tomes of TINA and thus be more successful?"

In 'Just Do ltl'I individualism is the key value which is reflected in a political View that
government should get out of the way and where the economy is characterised by fast-paced

innovation. Successful companies will seize the opponunities offered by 'bubbles of value'. The
e; exemplar country is the United States.

    
  

 

1 In 'Da Wo'. on the other hand. successful societies are cohesive.

governments matter as the enabler of basic physical and social
infrastructure, and successful companies pursue clear and shared
long-term strategies. East Asia becomes the fastest growing area or

the world and the twenty'nrst century is the Asian Century.

Both scenarios imply wands of strong competition but with different success factors. Both
worlds involve major change and also create very serious challenges for Shell companies.

Wnlle there were requests to produce the Scenarios on a CD-ROM. the costs of production to a sufficient quality that would add value uverthe hooks. and the
less than ubiquitous mutability of CDVROM drives in the Group. are not make an attradtve utenrative

 

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