Conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Interviews with 953 adults in New Hampshire conducted by land line and cellular telephone on February 3-6, 2016 including 362 who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary and 406 respondents who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The margin of sampling error for results based on Republican primary voters is plus or minus 5.2 percentage points and for results based on Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Sunday, February 7 at 8:00 a.m. CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll -1- January/February, 2016 1. (UNDECLARED / INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS ONLY) “"Which Presidential primary election do you think you will vote in ... the Republican Primary or the Democratic Primary?" PROBE: “As of RIGHT NOW, which primary do you think you will vote in?” Dec. 2015 48% 38% 14% REPUBLICAN PRIMARY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY UNDECIDED 2. Jan. 27-30 47% 42% 11% Jan 28-31 46% 43% 11% Jan 29- Feb Feb 1 2-4 43% 46% 45% 44% 12% 10% EARLY FULL Feb Feb 2-4 3-6 46% 46% 46% 46% 9% 8% (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?” June 2015 DEFINITELY DECIDED 8% LEANING TOWARD SOMEONE 17% STILL TRYING TO DECIDE 75% 3. Jan. 13-18 44% 48% 8% Sept 2015 13% 28% 59% Dec 2015 18% 26% 56% Jan 13-18 31% 26% 43% Jan. 27-30 39% 24% 37% Jan 28-31 37% 24% 39% EARLY FULL Jan 29- Feb Feb Feb 1 2-4 2-4 36% 41% 45% 23% 25% 26% 41% 34% 30% Feb 3-6 45% 25% 30% (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) "I’m going to read you the names of the candidates who are running for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination Jeb Bush … Ben Carson … Chris Christie … Ted Cruz … Carly Fiorina … Jim Gilmore … John Kasich … Marco Rubio … Donald Trump … or someone else?" ROTATE CANDIDATES June 2015 DONALD TRUMP 11% MARCO RUBIO 6% TED CRUZ 3% JOHN KASICH 2% JEB BUSH 16% CARLY FIORINA 6% CHRIS CHRISTIE 5% BEN CARSON 5% JIM GILMORE 0% BOB EHRLICH 0% MARK EVERSON --LINDSEY GRAHAM 1% MIKE HUCKABEE 2% BOBBY JINDAL * PETER KING 0% GEORGE PATAKI 1% RAND PAUL 9% RICK PERRY 4% RICK SANTORUM 0% SCOTT WALKER 8% SOMEONE ELSE 1% DK / NOT SURE 21% CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll Sept. 2015 26% 9% 5% 7% 7% 16% 5% 8% 1% --0% 1% * 0% --* 3% --* * * 11% Dec. 2015 32% 14% 6% 7% 8% 5% 9% 5% * ----1% 1% ----0% 2% --* --0% 9% Jan. 13-18 34% 10% 14% 6% 10% 4% 6% 3% * ---1% ---6% -0% -* 6% -2- Jan 27-30 30% 11% 12% 9% 6% 4% 8% 3% 0% ---1% ---3% -0% -3% 10% Jan 28-31 29% 11% 13% 9% 7% 5% 9% 3% 0% ---1% ---4% -0% -2% 7% Jan 29Feb 1 29% 11% 12% 10% 9% 4% 9% 2% 0% ---1% ---4% -0% -2% 9% EARLY Feb 2-4 29% 18% 13% 12% 10% 4% 4% 2% 0% -----------2% 8% FULL Feb 2-4 28% 17% 13% 13% 9% 5% 4% 1% 0% -----------2% 8% Feb 3-6 33% 16% 14% 11% 7% 6% 4% 2% * -----------1% 6% January/February, 2016 4. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Which of the candidates who are running for the Republican nomination would you NOT vote for under any circumstance?” June 2015 DONALD TRUMP 23% TED CRUZ 4% JEB BUSH 10% MARCO RUBIO 2% CARLY FIORINA * JIM GILMORE 0% CHRIS CHRISTIE 10% JOHN KASICH * BEN CARSON 0% BOB EHRLICH 1% MARK EVERSON --LINDSEY GRAHAM 2% MIKE HUCKABEE 3% BOBBY JINDAL 2% PETER KING 1% GEORGE PATAKI 2% RAND PAUL 3% RICK PERRY 1% RICK SANTORUM 2% SCOTT WALKER 2% SOMEONE ELSE 1% NONE / ALL OK 13% DK / NOT SURE 19% CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll Sept. 2015 25% 3% 11% 0% 1% 1% 5% * 1% --1% 4% 8% 1% --2% 10% --2% * 0% 10% 15% Dec. 2015 26% 3% 11% 1% 4% 2% 6% 2% 5% ----3% 4% ----2% 7% --3% --1% 11% 9% Jan. 13-18 30% 4% 18% 4% 4% 3% 9% 2% 2% ---2% ---5% -1% -* 10% 6% -3- Jan 27-30 35% 9% 12% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% ---1% ---4% -1% -1% 14% 9% Jan 28-31 36% 9% 11% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% ---1% ---5% -2% -1% 14% 9% Jan 29Feb 1 31% 10% 9% 3% 2% 1% 3% 4% 3% ---1% ---6% -2% -1% 15% 10% EARLY FULL Feb Feb 2-4 2-4 37% 36% 13% 14% 7% 9% 5% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 3% 2% ----------------------1% 2% 13% 13% 11% 10% Feb 3-6 30% 14% 12% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% -----------1% 13% 9% January/February, 2016 5. (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the New Hampshire Republican primary?” DONALD TRUMP TED CRUZ MARCO RUBIO CHRIS CHRISTIE JOHN KASICH JEB BUSH CARLY FIORINA BEN CARSON JIM GILMORE MARK EVERSON LINDSEY GRAHAM MIKE HUCKABEE BOBBY JINDAL GEORGE PATAKI RAND PAUL RICK SANTORUM SCOTT WALKER SOMEONE ELSE DK / NOT SURE CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll Sept 2015 40% * 5% 2% 3% 12% 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% * 0% 24% Dec. 2015 59% 2% 6% 6% 1% 4% 1% 1% 0% --0% * --0% 1% 0% --0% 20% Jan. 27-30 66% 6% 2% 1% 1% 2% * 1% 0% --0% --1% 0% -1% 19% -4- Jan 28-31 69% 4% 4% 1% 1% 2% * 1% 0% --0% --1% 0% -2% 17% Jan 29Feb 1 70% 3% 4% 1% 1% 2% * 0% 0% --0% --1% 0% -2% 17% EARLY FULL Feb Feb 2-4 2-4 61% 63% 11% 11% 9% 8% 0% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% * 0% 0% 0% 0% ----------------* * 17% 16% Feb 3-6 65% 10% 9% 1% 1% * * 0% 0% --------1% 13% January/February, 2016 6. (DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?” June 2015 DEFINITELY DECIDED 20% LEANING TOWARD SOMEONE 26% STILL TRYING TO DECIDE 54% 7. Dec 2015 36% 21% 44% Jan 13-18 52% 23% 26% Jan. 27-30 58% 17% 24% Jan 28-31 56% 19% 25% Feb 3-6 61% 23% 16% (DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:)"I’m going to read you the names of the candidates who are running for the Democratic nomination. If the Democratic primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Democratic nomination … Hillary Clinton … Bernie Sanders … or someone else?" ROTATE CANDIDATES BERNIE SANDERS HILLARY CLINTON JOE BIDEN LINCOLN CHAFEE LAWRENCE LESSIG MARTIN O’MALLEY JIM WEBB SOMEONE ELSE DK / NOT SURE 8. Sept 2015 25% 28% 47% EARLY FULL Jan 29- Feb Feb Feb 1 2-4 2-4 58% 64% 64% 19% 20% 20% 23% 17% 16% June 2015 35% 43% 8% * --2% 1% 2% 9% Sept 2015 46% 30% 14% * * 2% 1% 1% 6% Dec 2015 50% 40% ------1% --3% 6% Jan 13-18 60% 33% ---1% -0% 6% Jan. 27-30 57% 34% ---1% -2% 7% Jan 28-31 57% 34% ---1% -1% 7% EARLY FULL Jan 29- Feb Feb Feb 1 2-4 2-4 58% 61% 61% 33% 30% 31% ---------2% -----2% * * 6% 9% 8% Feb 3-6 58% 35% -----1% 6% (DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Which of the candidates who are running for the Democratic nomination would you NOT vote for under any circumstance?” HILLARY CLINTON BERNIE SANDERS JOE BIDEN LINCOLN CHAFEE LAWRENCE LESSIG MARTIN O’MALLEY JIM WEBB SOMEONE ELSE NONE / ALL ARE OK DK / NOT SURE CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll June 2015 11% 6% 6% 4% --2% 3% 4% 35% 30% Sept 2015 13% 5% 3% 8% 5% 2% 3% * 30% 31% Dec 2015 15% 5% ------11% --3% 50% 16% -5- Jan 13-18 14% 4% ---26% -2% 42% 13% Jan. 27-30 20% 4% ---23% -1% 45% 7% Jan 28-31 21% 5% ---27% -1% 39% 7% EARLY FULL Jan 29- Feb Feb Feb 1 2-4 2-4 24% 19% 18% 5% 8% 7% ---------26% -----1% 11% 8% 39% 52% 55% 6% 11% 11% Feb 3-6 21% 7% -----5% 59% 8% January/February, 2016 9. (DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Regardless of who you are voting for, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary?” BERNIE SANDERS HILLARY CLINTON JOE BIDEN LINCOLN CHAFEE LAWRENCE LESSIG MARTIN O’MALLEY JIM WEBB SOMEONE ELSE DK / NOT SURE CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll Sept. 2015 42% 42% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 9% Dec. 2015 28% 59% ------0% --1% 12% Jan. 27-30 54% 31% ---0% -1% 15% -6- Jan 28-31 52% 32% ---* -1% 15% Jan 29Feb 1 54% 30% ---* -1% 14% EARLY Feb 2-4 61% 25% -----0% 14% FULL Feb 2-4 62% 24% -----0% 14% Feb 3-6 66% 21% -----* 14% January/February, 2016