IOWA Interviews with 2,002 adult Iowans conducted by telephone by ORC International on January 15 - 20, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The sample also includes 266 who were likely to participate in the Republican presidential caucus and 280 who were likely to participate in the Democratic presidential caucus. This sample includes 1,202 interviews among landline respondents and 800 interviews among cell phone respondents. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, January 21 at 4:00 p.m. BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 266 REPUBLICAN LIKELY CAUCUS GOERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS. RP1. If the Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump (RANDOM ORDER) Jan. 15-20 2016 Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Huckabee Paul Christie Fiorina Kasich Santorum Gilmore Graham Jindal Pataki Perry Walker Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion RP2. 37% 26% 14% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * * 4% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 33% 20% 11% 16% 4% 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% 1% * * N/A * N/A N/A 1% 1% 1% 25% 11% 13% 23% 5% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% * * 2% 4% * N/A N/A * * 3% 22% 8% 5% 14% 5% 7% 5% 3% 7% 2% 1% * 2% 2% * 1% 9% * 2% 4% Have you definitely decided who you will support in the Iowa Republican caucus, are you leaning toward someone, or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Jan. 15-20 2016 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion 49% 22% 28% * Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 26% 26% 48% * 27% 23% 50% * 15% 19% 66% * RP2A. Has anyone personally contacted you about caucusing on February 1 for the candidate you support? Jan. 15-20 2016 Yes No No opinion POLL IA1 3 28% 72% * -2- January 15-20, 2016 RP3. Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected president. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: (RANDOM ORDER) The economy Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huckabee Kasich Gilmore Santorum Graham Jindal Pataki Perry Walker Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion Illegal immigration Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Huckabee Christie Fiorina Paul Gilmore Kasich Santorum Graham Jindal Pataki Perry Walker Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion POLL IA1 3 Jan. 15-20 2016 54% 16% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% * * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * * 5% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 52% 49% 37% 10% 8% 5% 5% 8% 3% 10% 9% 6% 7% 9% 7% 4% 4% 10% 3% 1% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 5% 2% 3% 3% * * 1% 1% 1% 1% * 1% * N/A 3% 2% * * * N/A N/A 2% N/A N/A 8% * * * 1% * 2% * 1% 3% Jan. 15-20 2016 51% 23% 12% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% * * * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * 1% 1% Nov. 28-Dec 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 49% 44% 35% 16% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 9% 10% 4% 6% 8% 5% 1% 1% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1% * 2% 1% 1% 1% * * * 1% 1% 1% * * 1% * * 1% N/A 3% 3% * * * N/A N/A 10% N/A N/A 3% * * 1% 1% * 1% 2% 3% 4% -3- January 15-20, 2016 RP3. Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected president. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: (RANDOM ORDER) Foreign policy Jan. 15-20 2016 27% 26% 25% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% * * N/A N/A N/A * * 2% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 2015 2015 30% 18% 13% 14% 21% 14% 9% 14% 2% 3% 8% 11% 4% 2% 3% 5% 3% 4% 2% 1% * * 1% 1% * 2% N/A 2% * 1% 1% * 1% 3% 3% 5% Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Jan. 15-20 2016 Cruz 29% Trump 18% Rubio 12% Carson 10% Huckabee 9% Bush 6% Paul 4% Fiorina 2% Kasich 1% Santorum 1% Christie * Gilmore * Graham N/A Jindal N/A Pataki N/A Someone else (vol.) 2% None/ No one (vol.) 3% No opinion 4% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 2015 2015 17% 12% 19% 13% 8% 10% 21% 27% 6% 6% 4% 6% 4% 2% 7% 8% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% * * * * N/A 3% * 1% 1% * 4% 2% 4% 4% Trump Rubio Cruz Bush Huckabee Carson Paul Christie Fiorina Kasich Gilmore Santorum Graham Jindal Pataki Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion POLL IA1 3 -4- January 15-20, 2016 RP4. Now I’m going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: (RANDOM ORDER) Best represents the values of Republicans like yourself Jan. 15-20 2016 Cruz Trump Rubio Carson Huckabee Bush Christie Kasich Fiorina Paul Gilmore Santorum Graham Jindal Pataki Perry Walker Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion 29% 28% 15% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% * * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * 1% 3% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 2015 2015 22% 25% 11% 18% 4% 7% 2% 1% 3% 5% * 1% * N/A * N/A N/A 1% * 1% 12% 20% 10% 25% 6% 7% 3% 2% 3% 2% * 1% 1% 4% * N/A N/A * * 1% Aug. 7-11 2015 10% 12% 4% 14% 11% 6% 3% 3% 5% 6% 1% 1% 1% 5% * 2% 9% 1% 1% 5% Has the best chance of winning in the general election in November Jan. 15-20 2016 Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Christie Paul Fiorina Gilmore Huckabee Kasich Santorum Graham Jindal Pataki Perry Walker Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion POLL IA1 3 46% 27% 16% 4% 3% 1% 1% * * * * * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * * 3% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 2015 2015 42% 17% 11% 11% 7% 1% 1% * * 1% 1% * * N/A * N/A N/A 1% 1% 5% 33% 8% 17% 25% 6% 1% 1% 1% * 1% 1% * 1% * * N/A N/A * 1% 5% -5- Aug. 7-11 2015 22% 7% 9% 5% 16% 3% 2% 3% * 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% * * 11% 1% 2% 7% January 15-20, 2016 RP4. Now I’m going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: (RANDOM ORDER) Is the strongest leader Jan. 15-20 2016 Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Christie Huckabee Fiorina Gilmore Kasich Paul Santorum Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion POLL IA1 3 47% 27% 11% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% * * * * 1% 1% 1% -6- January 15-20, 2016 BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 280 DEMOCRATIC LIKELY CAUCUS GOERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS. DM1. If the Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support? Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders (RANDOM ORDER) Jan. 15-20 2016 Sanders Clinton O'Malley Biden Chafee Webb Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 51% 43% 4% N/A N/A N/A * 1% 1% 36% 54% 4% N/A N/A N/A 2% * 3% 37% 55% 3% N/A N/A N/A 1% 1% 3% 31% 50% 1% 12% * 1% 1% * 4% DM2. Have you definitely decided who you will support in the Iowa Democratic caucus, are you leaning toward someone, or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Jan. 15-20 2016 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 64% 16% 20% * 38% 22% 39% * 40% 21% 38% * 30% 16% 54% * DM1A. And who would be your second choice? FIRST CHOICE SECOND CHOICE (Question DM1) (Question DM1A) Sanders Clinton O’Malley Biden Chaffee Webb Someone else (vol.) None/No one No opinion POLL IA1 3 51% 43% 4% N/A N/A N/A * 1% 1% 38% 35% 15% N/A N/A N/A 4% 6% 2% -7- January 15-20, 2016 DM3. I’m going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected president. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Democratic candidate do you think would do the best job handling: (RANDOM ORDER) The economy Jan. 15-20 2016 Sanders Clinton O'Malley Biden Chafee Webb Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion 58% 36% 3% N/A N/A N/A 1% * 1% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 2015 2015 42% 47% 7% N/A N/A N/A 1% 2% 2% 36% 57% 3% N/A N/A N/A 1% 2% 1% Aug. 7-11 2015 31% 42% 3% 14% * 1% 1% 3% 4% Health care Jan. 15-20 2016 Sanders Clinton O'Malley Biden Chafee Webb Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion 51% 45% 2% N/A N/A N/A * 1% 1% Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 2015 2015 31% 63% 3% N/A N/A N/A 1% * 2% 32% 61% 3% N/A N/A N/A * 2% 1% Aug. 7-11 2015 28% 54% * 13% * * * 2% 2% Foreign policy Jan. 15-20 2016 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Biden Chafee Webb Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion POLL IA1 3 65% 25% 6% N/A N/A N/A 3% * * Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 72% 21% 3% N/A N/A N/A 1% * 3% 74% 19% 2% N/A N/A N/A 1% 1% 2% -8- 66% 9% 2% 18% * 1% 1% 3% 1% January 15-20, 2016 DM4. Now I’m going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: (RANDOM ORDER) Best represents the values of Democrats like yourself Jan. 15-20 2016 Sanders Clinton O'Malley Biden Chafee Webb Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 Aug. 7-11 2015 2015 2015 57% 38% 5% N/A N/A N/A * 1% 1% 44% 46% 5% N/A N/A N/A 1% 2% 2% 42% 50% 4% N/A N/A N/A * 1% 2% 33% 41% 3% 16% * 1% 1% 2% 3% Has the best chance of winning in the general election in November Jan. 15-20 2016 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion Nov. 28-Dec. 6 Oct. 29-Nov. 4 2015 2015 60% 38% * * 1% 1% 77% 18% 3% 1% * 2% 76% 20% 2% 1% 1% 1% Would do the most to help the middle class Sanders Clinton O'Malley Someone else (vol.) None/ No one (vol.) No opinion POLL IA1 3 Jan. 15-20 2016 Nov. 28-Dec. 6 2015 67% 30% 2% * 1% * 50% 43% 4% * * 2% -9- January 15-20, 2016 DM5. Would you rather see the next president: (OPTIONS 2/3 ROTATED) Jan. 15-20 2016 Generally continue Barack Obama’s policies Change to more conservative policies Change to more liberal policies No opinion POLL IA1 3 48% 14% 33% 4% -10- January 15-20, 2016 5. Which of the following issues will be MOST important to you when you decide how to vote for president? (RANDOM ORDER) BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 266 REPUBLICAN LIKELY CAUCUS GOERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS. The economy Terrorism Foreign policy Social issues, such as abortion and same sex marriage Illegal immigration Health care Other (vol.) No opinion Jan. 15-20 2016 Nov. 28-Dec. 6 2015 37% 20% 17% 29% 27% 13% 10% 7% 5% 3% 1% 9% 10% 8% 2% 2% BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 280 DEMOCRATIC LIKELY CAUCUS GOERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS. The economy Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same sex marriage Foreign policy Terrorism Illegal immigration Other (vol.) No opinion POLL IA1 3 Jan. 15-20 2016 Nov. 28-Dec. 6 2015 46% 20% 38% 22% 16% 6% 6% 3% 1% 2% 10% 10% 13% 4% 3% 1% -11- January 15-20, 2016 6. How well do you feel the government in Washington represents the views of people like yourself? BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 266 REPUBLICAN LIKELY CAUCUS GOERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS. Jan. 15-20 2016 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion 3% 9% 30% 58% * BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH 280 DEMOCRATIC LIKELY CAUCUS GOERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 6 PERCENTAGE PTS. Jan. 15-20 2016 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion POLL IA1 3 4% 31% 36% 27% 1% -12- January 15 – 20, 2016 METHODOLOGY A total of 2,002 Iowa adults were interviewed by telephone statewide by live interviewers calling both landline and cellphones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state. Respondents were asked questions about whether they are registered to vote, their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign. Based on the answers to those questions, 546 respondents were classified as likely caucus-goers, including 266 who were likely to participate in the Republican presidential caucus and 280 who were likely to participate in the Democratic presidential caucus. The Iowa regions are composed of the following counties: the "East" region is composed of Cedar, Clinton, Dubuque, Jackson, Johnson, Jones, Linn, Muscatine and Scott counties; the "East Central" region is composed of Allamakee, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Chickasaw, Clayton, Delaware, Des Moines, Fayette, Floyd, Grundy, Henry, Howard, Iowa, Jefferson, Keokuk, Lee, Louisa, Mitchell, Poweshiek, Tama, Van Buren, Wapello, Washington and Winneshiek counties; the "Des Moines Area" region is composed of Dallas, Madison, Polk, Story and Warren counties; the "Central" region is composed of Adair, Appanoose, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Cerro Gordo, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Emmet, Franklin, Greene, Guthrie, Hamilton, Hancock, Hardin, Humboldt, Jasper, Kossuth, Lucas, Mahaska, Marion, Marshall, Monroe, Palo Alto, Pocahontas, Ringgold, Union, Wayne, Webster, Winnebago, Worth and Wright counties; and the "West" region is composed of Adams, Audubon, Buena Vista, Cass, Cherokee, Clay, Crawford, Dickinson, Fremont, Harrison, Ida, Lyon, Mills, Monona, Montgomery, O'Brien, Osceola, Page, Plymouth, Pottawattamie, Sac, Shelby, Sioux, Taylor and Woodbury counties. Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the population of Iowa to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed. POLL IA1 3 -13- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP1 If the Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------3% 2% 6% 6% 1% 1% 26% 24% 1% 1% * * 3% 4% 1% 1% 2% 3% 14% 11% 1% 1% 37% 42% * * * * 4% 5% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 6% 1% 26% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 14% 1% 37% * * 4% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 6% 1% 26% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 14% 1% 37% * * 4% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----3% 5% 1% 27% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 13% 1% 37% * * 4% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------4% 5% * 30% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 14% 1% 34% * * 4% +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 2% N/A 5% N/A 1% N/A 24% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 5% N/A 1% N/A 2% N/A 10% N/A 1% N/A 43% N/A * N/A * N/A 5% +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------4% 9% 3% 21% 2% * 2% 2% 4% 21% 2% 28% * * 3% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------3% 3% * 30% * * 4% * 2% 10% * 41% 1% * 6% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----6% 8% * 24% 2% * 6% * 1% 14% 1% 30% 1% 1% 5% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----4% 4% 2% 30% 1% * 4% * 1% 13% * 37% 1% 1% 4% +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -14- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP1 If the Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 6% 1% 26% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 14% 1% 37% * * 4% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 6% 1% 26% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 14% 1% 37% * * 4% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 6% 1% 26% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 14% 1% 37% * * 4% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----3% 5% 1% 28% 1% * 3% * 1% 15% * 38% 1% * 3% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------2% 6% 1% 31% 1% * 4% * 2% 12% 1% 33% 1% * 6% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 5% N/A 5% N/A 2% N/A 21% N/A 1% N/A * N/A * N/A 1% N/A 3% N/A 15% N/A 1% N/A 42% N/A * N/A * N/A 4% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -15- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP2 Have you definitely decided who you will support in the Iowa Republican caucus, are you leaning toward someone, or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Base = Republican likely caucus goers Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------49% 50% 22% 24% 28% 26% * 1% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 22% 28% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 22% 28% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 22% 28% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 22% 28% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 22% 28% * +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------47% 20% 33% * +/-8.5 College Grad ------50% 26% 22% 1% +/-8.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----52% 22% 26% * +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 51% N/A 23% N/A 26% N/A * +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------48% 22% 30% 1% +/-8.0 East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----48% 23% 29% * +/-6.0 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----54% 19% 27% * +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----50% 23% 28% * +/-8.5 Conservative ------52% 20% 28% 1% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 48% N/A 24% N/A 28% N/A 1% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -16- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP2A Has anyone personally contacted you about caucusing on February 1 for the candidate you support? Base = Republican likely caucus goers who plan to support a specific candidate Yes No No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------28% 25% 72% 75% * * +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Yes No No opinion Sampling Error Total ----28% 72% * +/-6.0 Yes No No opinion Sampling Error Total ----28% 72% * +/-6.0 Yes No No opinion Sampling Error Total ----28% 72% * +/-6.0 Yes No No opinion Sampling Error Total ----28% 72% * +/-6.0 Yes No No opinion Sampling Error Total ----28% 72% * +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------24% 76% * +/-8.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A Republican -----25% 75% 1% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 24% N/A 76% N/A * +/-8.0 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------26% 73% 1% +/-8.0 East Central ------N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A White ----26% 73% * +/-6.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----30% 69% 1% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A Rural ----23% 77% * +/-8.5 Conservative ------30% 70% 1% +/-7.5 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 31% N/A 69% N/A * +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -17- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3A Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: A. The economy Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------4% 2% 6% 6% 1% 2% 16% 10% 3% 3% * * 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 8% 5% * * 54% 61% * * * 1% 5% 4% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 6% 1% 16% 3% * 1% 1% 2% 8% * 54% * * 5% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 6% 1% 16% 3% * 1% 1% 2% 8% * 54% * * 5% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----4% 6% 1% 15% 3% * 2% 1% 2% 8% * 53% * 1% 4% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------5% 7% 1% 18% 3% * 2% 1% * 6% * 53% * * 4% +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 2% N/A 6% N/A 2% N/A 10% N/A 3% N/A * N/A 2% N/A 1% N/A 3% N/A 6% N/A * N/A 62% N/A * N/A 1% N/A 3% +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------6% 8% 1% 12% 6% * * 3% 5% 9% * 48% * 1% 3% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------3% 4% 2% 19% 1% * 2% * * 7% * 56% * * 6% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----5% 8% 1% 13% 4% * 4% * 1% 8% * 49% * 1% 6% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----5% 6% 1% 18% 2% * 2% * 3% 7% * 51% * 1% 5% +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -18- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3A Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: A. The economy Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 6% 1% 16% 3% * 1% 1% 2% 8% * 54% * * 5% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 6% 1% 16% 3% * 1% 1% 2% 8% * 54% * * 5% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 6% 1% 16% 3% * 1% 1% 2% 8% * 54% * * 5% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----4% 5% * 17% 3% * 1% * 1% 8% * 55% * 1% 4% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------3% 6% * 20% 3% * 2% * 1% 8% * 50% * 1% 6% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 5% N/A 5% N/A 2% N/A 15% N/A 3% N/A * N/A * N/A 1% N/A 2% N/A 7% N/A * N/A 56% N/A * N/A * N/A 5% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -19- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3B Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: B. Illegal immigration Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------3% 3% 4% 4% 1% * 23% 19% 1% 1% * * 2% 1% * * 1% 2% 12% 9% * * 51% 60% * * 1% * 1% * +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 23% 1% * 2% * 1% 12% * 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 23% 1% * 2% * 1% 12% * 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----4% 4% 1% 24% 1% * 2% * 1% 12% * 52% * * 1% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------5% 5% * 25% 1% * 2% * 1% 13% * 48% * * 1% +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 3% N/A 4% N/A * N/A 19% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 1% N/A * N/A 2% N/A 9% N/A * N/A 60% N/A * N/A * N/A * +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------7% 4% 1% 23% 2% * 2% * 2% 18% * 40% * * 1% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------1% 4% 1% 24% * * 1% * * 9% * 58% * * 1% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----4% 3% 1% 20% 2% * 2% * 1% 13% * 52% 1% * 1% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----2% 5% 1% 20% * * 1% * 1% 9% * 59% * * 2% +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -20- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3B Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: B. Illegal immigration Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 23% 1% * 2% * 1% 12% * 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 23% 1% * 2% * 1% 12% * 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 23% 1% * 2% * 1% 12% * 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----4% 3% 1% 26% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 50% * * 1% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------1% 5% 1% 27% 1% * 2% * * 9% * 53% * * 1% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 4% N/A 2% N/A 1% N/A 16% N/A 1% N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A 2% N/A 14% N/A * N/A 55% N/A 1% N/A 2% N/A 1% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -21- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3C Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: C. Foreign policy Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 25% 25% 1% 1% * * 4% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3% 26% 23% * * 27% 34% * * * * 2% 2% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----5% 3% 2% 25% 1% * 4% 1% 3% 26% * 27% * * 2% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----5% 3% 2% 25% 1% * 4% 1% 3% 26% * 27% * * 2% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----6% 3% 2% 24% 1% * 4% 1% 2% 27% * 27% * * 2% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------6% 4% 1% 28% 1% * 3% 1% 4% 28% * 25% * * 1% +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 5% N/A 1% N/A 2% N/A 25% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 3% N/A 1% N/A 2% N/A 23% N/A * N/A 34% N/A * N/A * N/A 2% +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------10% 6% 2% 20% 2% * 1% * 5% 30% * 22% * * 1% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------3% 2% 2% 29% * * 5% 1% 1% 24% * 29% * * 3% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----7% 3% 1% 25% 2% * 5% 1% 1% 30% * 22% 1% * 3% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----4% 2% 1% 27% 1% * 4% 1% 2% 23% * 33% * * 1% +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -22- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3C Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: C. Foreign policy Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----5% 3% 2% 25% 1% * 4% 1% 3% 26% * 27% * * 2% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----5% 3% 2% 25% 1% * 4% 1% 3% 26% * 27% * * 2% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----5% 3% 2% 25% 1% * 4% 1% 3% 26% * 27% * * 2% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----6% 3% 1% 26% 1% * 5% 1% 1% 26% * 28% * * 1% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------4% 5% 1% 28% 1% * 3% 1% 2% 26% * 27% * * 3% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 6% N/A 3% N/A 2% N/A 25% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 2% N/A 1% N/A 3% N/A 26% N/A * N/A 27% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 4% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -23- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3D Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: D. Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------6% 3% 10% 10% * * 29% 28% 2% 2% * * 9% 9% 1% 2% 4% 4% 12% 13% 1% 1% 18% 25% 2% * 3% 2% 4% 2% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----6% 10% * 29% 2% * 9% 1% 4% 12% 1% 18% 2% 3% 4% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----6% 10% * 29% 2% * 9% 1% 4% 12% 1% 18% 2% 3% 4% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----6% 9% * 29% 2% * 10% 1% 4% 13% 1% 19% 2% 2% 2% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------6% 10% * 31% 3% * 10% 2% 3% 14% 1% 16% * 3% 2% +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 3% N/A 8% N/A * N/A 29% N/A 2% N/A * N/A 9% N/A 2% N/A 3% N/A 13% N/A 1% N/A 25% N/A * N/A 2% N/A 2% +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------5% 10% * 24% 5% * 12% 2% 3% 14% 2% 19% 1% 2% 2% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------6% 10% * 33% * * 8% 1% 5% 12% * 18% 3% 3% 3% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----7% 14% * 30% 3% * 14% 1% 2% 8% * 15% 1% 4% 2% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----4% 11% * 31% * * 10% 1% 5% 15% * 20% 1% 2% * +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -24- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP3D Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me which Republican candidate you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Republican candidate do you think would do the best job handling: D. Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----6% 10% * 29% 2% * 9% 1% 4% 12% 1% 18% 2% 3% 4% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----6% 10% * 29% 2% * 9% 1% 4% 12% 1% 18% 2% 3% 4% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----6% 10% * 29% 2% * 9% 1% 4% 12% 1% 18% 2% 3% 4% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----7% 9% * 28% 3% * 11% 1% 3% 13% * 18% 2% 2% 3% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------4% 11% * 36% 2% * 12% 1% 2% 11% 1% 16% 1% 2% 1% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 6% N/A 8% N/A * N/A 23% N/A 2% N/A * N/A 5% N/A 1% N/A 5% N/A 14% N/A 1% N/A 20% N/A 4% N/A 3% N/A 6% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -25- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP4A Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: A. Best represents the values of Republicans like yourself Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------4% 3% 8% 9% 2% 4% 29% 28% 1% 1% * * 6% 6% 2% 3% 1% 1% 15% 12% * * 28% 29% * * 1% 1% 3% 3% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 8% 2% 29% 1% * 6% 2% 1% 15% * 28% * 1% 3% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 8% 2% 29% 1% * 6% 2% 1% 15% * 28% * 1% 3% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----4% 7% 2% 28% 1% * 6% 1% 1% 15% * 28% * 1% 3% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------5% 8% 2% 31% 1% * 7% 2% 1% 12% * 26% * 1% 3% +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 3% N/A 8% N/A 4% N/A 27% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 6% N/A 3% N/A 1% N/A 12% N/A * N/A 30% N/A * N/A 1% N/A 3% +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------7% 10% 1% 26% 4% * 6% 3% 2% 20% * 19% * 1% 1% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------2% 6% 3% 31% * * 6% 1% * 12% * 32% * 1% 5% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----5% 10% 1% 29% 3% * 9% 1% 1% 16% * 20% * 1% 4% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----3% 8% * 30% 1% * 7% * 1% 17% * 29% * 1% 4% +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -26- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP4A Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: A. Best represents the values of Republicans like yourself Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 8% 2% 29% 1% * 6% 2% 1% 15% * 28% * 1% 3% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 8% 2% 29% 1% * 6% 2% 1% 15% * 28% * 1% 3% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 8% 2% 29% 1% * 6% 2% 1% 15% * 28% * 1% 3% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----6% 8% 2% 29% 2% * 6% * * 15% * 30% * 1% 3% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------2% 9% 2% 35% 1% * 8% * 1% 13% * 25% * 1% 3% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 6% N/A 6% N/A 2% N/A 23% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 2% N/A 3% N/A 2% N/A 17% N/A * N/A 31% N/A * N/A 2% N/A 4% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -27- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP4B Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: B. Has the best chance of winning in the general election in November Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------3% 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 27% 24% * * * * * * * * 1% * 16% 15% * * 46% 49% * * * * 3% 2% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 27% * * * * 1% 16% * 46% * * 3% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 27% * * * * 1% 16% * 46% * * 3% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----3% 3% 1% 26% * * * * 1% 16% * 46% * * 3% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------3% 4% 2% 27% * * * * 1% 18% * 42% * * 3% +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 3% N/A 3% N/A 2% N/A 24% N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A 15% N/A * N/A 50% N/A * N/A * N/A 2% +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------5% 4% 1% 20% 1% * * * 2% 25% * 37% * * 6% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------2% 4% 1% 32% * * * * * 10% * 50% * * 1% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----6% 7% * 26% 1% * * * * 17% * 40% * * 3% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----2% 2% 1% 30% * * * * * 13% * 47% * * 4% +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -28- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP4B Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: B. Has the best chance of winning in the general election in November Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 27% * * * * 1% 16% * 46% * * 3% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 27% * * * * 1% 16% * 46% * * 3% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 4% 1% 27% * * * * 1% 16% * 46% * * 3% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----4% 4% 1% 26% * * * * 1% 15% * 46% * * 3% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------1% 5% 1% 29% * * * * 1% 16% * 45% * * 2% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 5% N/A 4% N/A * N/A 22% N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A 19% N/A * N/A 47% N/A * N/A * N/A 2% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -29- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP4C Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: C. Is the strongest leader Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------3% 3% 5% 3% 2% 2% 27% 26% 1% 1% * * 2% 2% * * * * 11% 9% * * 47% 52% 1% * 1% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 5% 2% 27% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 47% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 5% 2% 27% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 47% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----3% 5% 2% 27% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 47% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------2% 7% 1% 31% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 44% 1% * * +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 3% N/A 2% N/A 2% N/A 26% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 2% N/A * N/A * N/A 9% N/A * N/A 53% N/A * N/A * N/A 1% +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------3% 5% 1% 23% 2% * 1% * 1% 19% * 43% * 1% 1% +/-8.5 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------3% 5% 2% 30% * * 2% * * 7% * 48% 1% 1% 1% +/-8.5 White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----6% 4% 2% 28% 2% * 3% * 1% 12% * 37% 2% 2% 3% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----3% 4% 1% 32% * * 2% * 1% 10% * 43% 1% 1% 1% +/-8.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -30- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question RP4C Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Republican candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Republican candidate do you think: C. Is the strongest leader Base = Republican likely caucus goers Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 5% 2% 27% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 47% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 5% 2% 27% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 47% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 5% 2% 27% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 47% 1% 1% 1% +/-6.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----4% 4% 1% 26% 1% * 2% * * 12% * 48% * * 1% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------1% 5% 1% 32% 1% * 2% * * 11% * 44% 1% 1% 1% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 4% N/A 3% N/A 3% N/A 23% N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A * N/A 13% N/A * N/A 50% N/A 2% N/A 1% N/A 2% +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -31- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM1 If the Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support. Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------43% 32% 56% 45% 4% 4% 4% 3% 51% 63% 38% 49% * * * * 1% * 3% 2% 1% 1% * 1% +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----43% 4% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----43% 4% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----43% 4% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----43% 4% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----43% 4% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----47% 3% 48% * 2% 1% +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------43% 3% 50% * 3% 2% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------39% 3% 55% * 2% * +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------49% 4% 44% 1% * 2% +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----32% 1% 63% * 3% * +/-8.5 White Women -----54% 4% 39% * 3% * +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----63% 2% 34% 1% * * +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------45% 3% 49% * 2% 1% +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 43% N/A 4% N/A 52% N/A * N/A * N/A 1% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 POLL IA1 3 -32- January 15 – 20, 2016 Question DM2 Have you definitely decided who you will support in the Iowa Democratic caucus, are you leaning toward someone, or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------64% 63% 65% 68% 16% 19% 12% 14% 20% 18% 22% 17% * * * * +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----64% 16% 20% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----64% 16% 20% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----64% 16% 20% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----64% 16% 20% * +/-6.0 Definitely decided Leaning toward someone Still trying to decide No opinion Sampling Error Total ----64% 16% 20% * +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----66% 15% 20% * +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------62% 20% 17% * +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------61% 16% 23% * +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------68% 15% 17% * +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----70% 16% 14% * +/-8.5 White Women -----65% 12% 24% * +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----73% 14% 14% * +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------70% 19% 11% * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 66% N/A 16% N/A 18% N/A * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -33- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM1A And who would be your second choice? Base = Democratic likely caucus goers with a first choice Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------35% 46% 22% 33% 15% 14% 17% 16% 38% 29% 47% 38% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 6% 7% 2% * 4% 3% +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.5 +/-6.5 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 15% 38% 4% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 15% 38% 4% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 15% 38% 4% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 15% 38% 4% 6% 2% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----35% 15% 38% 4% 6% 2% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----38% 13% 40% 3% 4% 1% +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------36% 14% 40% 2% 7% 1% +/-8.5 Non College Grad -------37% 16% 33% 6% 6% 2% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------33% 15% 43% 1% 7% 2% +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----46% 16% 30% 2% 6% 1% +/-8.5 White Women -----23% 17% 45% 4% 6% 4% +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----25% 14% 47% 2% 8% 4% +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------34% 18% 39% 4% 4% 2% +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 34% N/A 17% N/A 38% N/A 4% N/A 6% N/A 2% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -34- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM3A Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Democratic candidate do you think would do the best job handling: A. The economy Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------36% 27% 46% 38% 3% 1% 4% 3% 58% 70% 46% 57% 1% 1% 1% 1% * * * * 1% * 2% * +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 3% 58% 1% * 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 3% 58% 1% * 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------31% 4% 64% 2% * * +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------42% 2% 54% 2% * * +/-8.0 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------32% 4% 63% * * 2% +/-8.5 White Women -----45% 5% 48% 1% * 1% +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----50% 2% 47% 2% * * +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -35- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM3A Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Democratic candidate do you think would do the best job handling: A. The economy Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 3% 58% 1% * 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 3% 58% 1% * 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----36% 3% 58% 1% * 1% +/-6.0 Democrat ----40% 3% 57% * * * +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----29% 4% 66% 1% * * +/-8.5 Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------38% 3% 59% * * * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 38% N/A 3% N/A 57% N/A 1% N/A * N/A 1% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -36- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM3B Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Democratic candidate do you think would do the best job handling: B. Health care Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------45% 38% 52% 46% 2% 4% 1% 2% 51% 55% 47% 51% * * * * 1% 2% * 1% 1% 2% * * +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----45% 2% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----45% 2% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------43% 3% 53% * 1% * +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------50% 3% 45% * 2% * +/-8.0 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------40% 2% 56% * * 1% +/-8.5 White Women -----49% 1% 49% * * * +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----67% 2% 31% * 1% * +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -37- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM3B Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Democratic candidate do you think would do the best job handling: B. Health care Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----45% 2% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----45% 2% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----45% 2% 51% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Democrat ----49% 3% 47% * * 1% +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----32% 1% 66% * 1% * +/-8.5 Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------45% 2% 53% * * * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 45% N/A 2% N/A 51% N/A * N/A 1% N/A 1% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -38- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM3C Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Democratic candidate do you think would do the best job handling: C. Foreign policy Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------65% 65% 66% 64% 6% 6% 7% 6% 25% 28% 22% 26% 3% 1% 4% 3% * 1% * * * * * * +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----65% 6% 25% 3% * * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----65% 6% 25% 3% * * +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------70% 5% 23% 1% 1% * +/-8.0 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------77% 3% 19% 2% * * +/-8.0 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------58% 9% 30% 3% 1% * +/-8.5 White Women -----64% 8% 24% 5% * * +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----81% 3% 15% * 1% * +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -39- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM3C Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me who you think would best handle that issue if he or she were elected President. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for that person. Which Democratic candidate do you think would do the best job handling: C. Foreign policy Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----65% 6% 25% 3% * * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----65% 6% 25% 3% * * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----65% 6% 25% 3% * * +/-6.0 Democrat ----72% 6% 18% 3% * * +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----63% 3% 31% 3% * * +/-8.5 Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------72% 6% 19% 2% 1% * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 64% N/A 7% N/A 26% N/A 3% N/A * N/A * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -40- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM4A Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: A. Best represents the values of Democrats like yourself Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------38% 28% 48% 40% 5% 4% 5% 4% 57% 67% 46% 56% * * * * 1% 1% * 1% 1% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 5% 57% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 5% 57% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 5% 57% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 5% 57% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----38% 5% 57% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----39% 4% 56% * 1% 1% +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------33% 6% 61% * * * +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------34% 5% 60% * 1% 1% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------42% 4% 54% * * * +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----28% 5% 67% * * * +/-8.5 White Women -----45% 5% 48% * * 1% +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----55% 2% 41% * * 1% +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------37% 5% 58% * * * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 37% N/A 5% N/A 57% N/A * N/A 1% N/A 1% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM4B POLL IA1 3 -41- January 15 – 20, 2016 Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: B. Has the best chance of winning in the general election in November Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------60% 44% 77% 62% * * 1% 1% 38% 55% 21% 36% * * * * 1% 1% * 1% 1% * 2% * +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----60% * 38% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----60% * 38% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----60% * 38% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----60% * 38% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----60% * 38% * 1% 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----64% * 35% * 1% * +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------55% * 44% * * 1% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------55% 1% 42% * 1% 1% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------66% * 33% 1% * 1% +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----55% * 44% * * 1% +/-8.5 White Women -----76% 1% 22% * * 1% +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----74% * 24% 1% * 1% +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------68% * 31% * * 1% +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 59% N/A 1% N/A 38% N/A * N/A 1% N/A 1% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM4C POLL IA1 3 -42- January 15 – 20, 2016 Now I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the candidates, and for each one, tell me which Democratic candidate you think that phrase best describes, regardless of who you are voting for. Which Democratic candidate do you think: C. Would do the most to help the middle class Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------30% 25% 36% 32% 2% 2% 1% 2% 67% 73% 60% 66% * * * * 1% * 2% * * * * * +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----30% 2% 67% * 1% * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----30% 2% 67% * 1% * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----30% 2% 67% * 1% * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----30% 2% 67% * 1% * +/-6.0 Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Someone else None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----30% 2% 67% * 1% * +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----32% 1% 67% * * * +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------27% 1% 72% * * * +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------27% 2% 70% * 1% * +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------34% 1% 65% * * * +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----19% 1% 80% * * * +/-8.5 White Women -----35% 1% 63% * * * +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----47% 2% 51% * * 1% +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------31% 1% 68% * * * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 30% N/A 2% N/A 67% N/A * N/A 1% N/A * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question DM5 Would you rather see the next president: POLL IA1 3 -43- January 15 – 20, 2016 Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Continue Obama's policies Have conservative policies Have liberal policies No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------48% 42% 55% 51% 14% 17% 11% 14% 33% 39% 27% 31% 4% 2% 7% 3% +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Continue Obama's policies Have conservative policies Have liberal policies No opinion Sampling Error Total ----48% 14% 33% 4% +/-6.0 Continue Obama's policies Have conservative policies Have liberal policies No opinion Sampling Error Total ----48% 14% 33% 4% +/-6.0 Continue Obama's policies Have conservative policies Have liberal policies No opinion Sampling Error Total ----48% 14% 33% 4% +/-6.0 Continue Obama's policies Have conservative policies Have liberal policies No opinion Sampling Error Total ----48% 14% 33% 4% +/-6.0 Continue Obama's policies Have conservative policies Have liberal policies No opinion Sampling Error Total ----48% 14% 33% 4% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----52% 12% 34% 3% +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------50% 12% 35% 4% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------46% 17% 32% 5% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------55% 10% 32% 3% +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----49% 6% 45% * +/-8.5 White Women -----57% 12% 26% 5% +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----59% 10% 28% 3% +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------55% 6% 37% 2% +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 47% N/A 14% N/A 35% N/A 4% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -44- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question 5 Which of the following issues will be MOST important to you when you decide how to vote for president? Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Total ----6% 3% 20% 16% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 6% The economy 46% Other 1% No opinion 2% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----6% 3% 20% 16% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 6% The economy 46% Other 1% No opinion 2% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----6% 3% 20% 16% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 6% The economy 46% Other 1% No opinion 2% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----6% 3% 20% 16% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 6% The economy 46% Other 1% No opinion 2% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----6% 3% 20% 16% Men ----7% 1% 20% 6% 6% 58% 1% * +/-8.5 Women ----4% 5% 20% 27% 5% 34% 1% 3% +/-8.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----7% 4% 23% 15% 5% 44% 1% 2% +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----7% 3% 22% 19% 6% 40% 1% 2% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POLL IA1 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------6% 3% 19% 17% College Grad ------12% * 20% 12% Non College Grad -------3% 4% 21% 19% 5% 48% 1% * +/-8.0 3% 52% 2% * +/-8.0 8% 42% 1% 3% +/-8.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 6% The economy 46% Other 1% No opinion 2% Sampling Error +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question 5 3 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -45- Liberal ----8% * 21% 24% 6% 39% * 2% +/-8.5 White Women -----4% 5% 21% 28% 4% 34% 1% 4% +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----9% 5% 27% 7% 6% 42% 1% 2% +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A January 15 – 20, 2016 Which of the following issues will be MOST important to you when you decide how to vote for president? Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Total ----6% 3% 20% 16% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 6% The economy 46% Other 1% No opinion 2% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------6% 2% 22% 16% 2% 49% 2% * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 6% N/A 3% N/A 18% N/A 16% N/A N/A 5% N/A 50% N/A 1% N/A 1% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -46- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question 5 Which of the following issues will be MOST important to you when you decide how to vote for president? Base = Republican likely caucus goers Total ----17% 7% 5% 10% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 20% The economy 37% Other 3% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----17% 7% 5% 10% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 20% The economy 37% Other 3% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----17% 7% 5% 10% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 20% The economy 37% Other 3% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----17% 7% 5% 10% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 20% The economy 37% Other 3% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Total ----17% 7% 5% 10% Men ----18% 5% 5% 10% 21% 37% 4% * +/-7.5 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----15% 7% 5% 9% 21% 40% 3% 1% +/-6.0 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POLL IA1 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------19% 4% 4% 9% College Grad ------19% 6% 9% 10% Non College Grad -------13% 8% 3% 10% 19% 42% 2% * +/-8.0 13% 41% 3% 1% +/-8.5 25% 36% 3% 1% +/-8.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----16% 6% 4% 10% 23% 40% * 1% +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 20% The economy 37% Other 3% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 3 White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 18% N/A 4% N/A 5% N/A 9% N/A N/A 21% N/A 39% N/A 4% N/A * +/-7.5 -47- Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----17% 11% 3% 9% 26% 28% 5% 1% +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----16% 12% 9% 4% 20% 34% 4% 1% +/-8.5 Conservative ------15% 8% 3% 13% 18% 40% 2% 1% +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A January 15 – 20, 2016 Question 5 Which of the following issues will be MOST important to you when you decide how to vote for president? Base = Republican likely caucus goers Total ----17% 7% 5% 10% Foreign policy Illegal immigration Health care Social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage Terrorism 20% The economy 37% Other 3% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-6.0 Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 20% N/A 8% N/A 7% N/A 6% N/A N/A 19% N/A 38% N/A 2% N/A * +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -48- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question 10 How well do you feel the government in Washington represents the views of people like yourself? Base = Democratic likely caucus goers Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------4% 3% 6% 5% 31% 38% 25% 30% 36% 32% 40% 36% 27% 27% 27% 27% 1% * 2% 1% +/-6.0 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 31% 36% 27% 1% +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 31% 36% 27% 1% +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 31% 36% 27% 1% +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 31% 36% 27% 1% +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----4% 31% 36% 27% 1% +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----6% 36% 37% 20% 2% +/-6.5 East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------4% 26% 39% 29% 2% +/-8.0 Non College Grad -------2% 32% 34% 30% 2% +/-8.5 Republican -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A College Grad ------8% 31% 37% 23% * +/-8.0 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Liberal ----5% 32% 38% 24% * +/-8.5 White Women -----6% 26% 38% 26% 3% +/-8.5 Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----8% 28% 32% 32% 1% +/-7.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------3% 27% 40% 29% * +/-7.0 White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 3% N/A 32% N/A 36% N/A 27% N/A 1% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -49- January 15 – 20, 2016 Iowa CNN/ORC International Poll -- January 15 to 20, 2016 Question 10 How well do you feel the government in Washington represents the views of people like yourself? Base = Republican likely caucus goers Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total Men --------3% 3% 9% 9% 30% 29% 58% 59% * * +/-6.0 +/-7.5 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 9% 30% 58% * +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 9% 30% 58% * +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 9% 30% 58% * +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 9% 30% 58% * +/-6.0 Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well No opinion Sampling Error Total ----3% 9% 30% 58% * +/-6.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under $50K ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A East ---N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Women ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Non College Grad -------3% 8% 32% 56% * +/-8.5 College Grad ------2% 11% 27% 61% * +/-8.5 Independent -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----1% 10% 28% 61% * +/-7.0 Des Moines Area -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Neutral ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Non-White Men --------- -----N/A 3% N/A 10% N/A 28% N/A 59% N/A * +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------2% 11% 32% 55% * +/-8.0 East Central ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Support ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White ----2% 9% 30% 59% * +/-6.0 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Women -----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under 55 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 55 and Older -----2% 9% 28% 60% * +/-8.0 Suburban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rural ----3% 14% 22% 62% * +/-8.5 Conservative ------1% 9% 29% 61% * +/-7.0 Central West ------- ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Tea Pty Oppose ------N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White All Evang. Others ------- ------N/A 2% N/A 12% N/A 28% N/A 58% N/A * +/-8.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL IA1 3 -50- January 15 – 20, 2016