Interviews with 1,020 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on November 27 – December 1, 2015. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 930 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points). This sample includes 620 interviews among landline respondents and 400 interviews among cell phone respondents. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Friday, December 4 at 4:00 p.m. BASED ON 919 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 11 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 930 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS. 25. 26. 27. 28. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? [READ LIST] (IF NEITHER OR DON’T KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --? [READ LIST] Clinton Trump Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion Nov. 27 - Dec. 1, 2015 49% 46% 1% 3% * Oct. 14-17, 2015 50% 45% 2% 4% * If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Ben Carson were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? [READ LIST] (IF NEITHER OR DON’T KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --? [READ LIST] Clinton Carson Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion Nov. 27 - Dec. 1, 2015 47% 50% * 2% 1% Oct. 14-17, 2015 47% 48% 1% 4% * FOR COMPARISON: For the next few questions, let's assume that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016. I'm going to read the names of a few Republicans who may run for their party's nomination. After I read each one, please tell me if you would be more likely to vote for that Republican candidate or if you would be more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. (RANDOM ORDER) Businessman Donald Trump Registered Voters Sept. 4-8, 2015 Aug. 13-16, 2015 July 22-25, 2015 June 26-28, 2015 Clinton Trump Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 48% 51% 56% 59% 48% 45% 40% 35% * * * * 3% 4% 4% 6% * * * * Clinton Carson Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 46% 51% 1% 2% * Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson Registered Voters Sept. 4-8, 2015 POLL 12 3 -2- November 27 – December 1, 2015 BASED ON 919 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 11 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 930 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS. 29. 30. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Marco Rubio were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? [READ LIST] (IF NEITHER OR DON’T KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --? [READ LIST] Nov. 27 - Dec. 1, 2015 Clinton Rubio Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 48% 49% 1% 2% * FOR COMPARISON: For the next few questions, let's assume that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016. I'm going to read the names of a few Republicans who may run for their party's nomination. After I read each one, please tell me if you would be more likely to vote for that Republican candidate or if you would be more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. (RANDOM ORDER) Florida Senator Marco Rubio Clinton Rubio Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion Registered Voters June 26-28, 2015 56% 40% * 3% * All Adults May 29-31, 2015 Apr. 16-19, 2015 Mar. 13-15, 2015 Dec. 16-19, 2013 49% 55% 55% 57% 46% 41% 42% 36% * * * 1% 4% 3% 3% 4% 1% 1% * 2% POLL 12 3 -3- November 27 – December 1, 2015 31. 32. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Ted Cruz were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? [READ LIST] (IF NEITHER OR DON’T KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --? [READ LIST] Nov. 27 - Dec. 1, 2015 Clinton Cruz Other (vol.) 50% 47% 1% Neither (vol.) No opinion 2% * FOR COMPARISON: For the next few questions, let's assume that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016. I'm going to read the names of a few Republicans who may run for their party's nomination. After I read each one, please tell me if you would be more likely to vote for that Republican candidate or if you would be more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. (RANDOM ORDER) Texas Senator Ted Cruz All Adults May 29-31, 2015 Apr. 16-19, 2015 Dec. 18-21, 2014 POLL 12 3 Clinton Cruz Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 52% 60% 60% 43% 36% 35% * * 1% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% -4- November 27 – December 1, 2015 BASED ON 919 REGISTERED VOTERS AND 11 INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAN TO REGISTER TO VOTE, FOR A TOTAL OF 930 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS. 33. 34. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Jeb Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? [READ LIST] (IF NEITHER OR DON’T KNOW) As of today, do you lean more toward --? [READ LIST] Clinton Bush Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 49% 47% 1% 4% * Nov. 27 - Dec. 1, 2015 FOR COMPARISON: For the next few questions, let's assume that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016. I'm going to read the names of a few Republicans who may run for their party's nomination. After I read each one, please tell me if you would be more likely to vote for that Republican candidate or if you would be more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. (RANDOM ORDER) Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush Clinton Bush Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion Registered Voters Sept. 4-8, 2015 Aug. 13-16, 2015 July 22-25, 2015 June 26-28, 2015 47% 52% 51% 54% 49% 43% 46% 41% * * * 1% 3% 5% 3% 3% * * * * All Adults May 29-31, 2015 Apr. 16-19, 2015 Mar. 13-15, 2015 Dec. 18-21, 2014 Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2014 Dec. 16-19, 2013 51% 56% 55% 54% 59% 58% 43% 39% 40% 41% 36% 36% * * * 1% * 1% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 1% 1% 1% * 2% 1% POLL 12 3 -5- November 27 – December 1, 2015 METHODOLOGY A total of 1,020 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Among the entire sample, 30% described themselves as Democrats, 26% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "N/A". POLL 12 3 -6- November 27 – December 1, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- November 27 to December 1, 2015 Question 25/26 Q25. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- ? Q26. As of today, do you lean more toward -- ? Base = Registered Voters Total Men Women White ----------------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% 43% 55% 37% Donald Trump, the Republican 46% 53% 40% 58% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% Neither 3% 3% 4% 4% No opinion * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Donald Trump, the Republican 46% Other 1% Neither 3% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under Total $50K --------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% 54% Donald Trump, the Republican 46% 43% Other 1% 1% Neither 3% 2% No opinion * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 3549 ----45% 50% 1% 4% * +/-8.0 $50K or more ------46% 49% 2% 3% * +/-4.5 Non-White --------76% 21% 1% 2% * +/-6.5 5064 ----47% 48% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 65+ ----44% 50% 2% 4% * +/-5.0 No College Degree ------48% 49% 1% 3% * +/-4.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Donald Trump, the Republican 46% Other 1% Neither 3% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Democrat ----92% 7% 1% * * +/-6.0 Independent -----45% 49% 1% 5% * +/-5.0 Republican -----9% 85% 2% 4% * +/-6.0 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Donald Trump, the Republican 46% Other 1% Neither 3% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 North east ----55% 41% 1% 3% * +/-7.0 Midwest ----54% 43% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 South ----41% 55% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Donald Trump, the Republican 46% Other 1% Neither 3% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------6% 90% * 4% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------42% 54% 1% 3% * +/-4.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------84% 12% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 Under 50 ----53% 44% 1% 2% * +/-6.0 50 and Older -----46% 49% 1% 4% * +/-4.0 College Degree -------53% 42% 1% 4% * +/-5.0 Lean Democrat -----88% 9% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----86% 10% 1% 3% * +/-7.0 Moderate ----55% 40% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 West ----51% 42% 2% 5% * +/-7.0 Urban ----67% 28% * 4% * +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----10% 85% 1% 3% * +/-4.5 Conservative ------24% 71% 1% 4% * +/-5.0 Suburban ----45% 51% 2% 2% * +/-5.0 Rural ----34% 62% 1% 3% * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 12 3 -7- November 27 – December 1, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- November 27 to December 1, 2015 Question 27/28 Q27. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Ben Carson were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- ? Q28. As of today, do you lean more toward -- ? Base = Registered Voters Total Men Women White ----------------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47% 38% 55% 37% Ben Carson, the Republican 50% 59% 42% 61% Other * * 1% * Neither 2% 2% 2% 2% No opinion 1% * 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47% Ben Carson, the Republican 50% Other * Neither 2% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under Total $50K --------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47% 54% Ben Carson, the Republican 50% 45% Other * * Neither 2% 1% No opinion 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 3549 ----43% 53% * 3% * +/-8.0 $50K or more ------43% 55% 1% 2% * +/-4.5 Non-White --------71% 27% * 1% 1% +/-6.5 5064 ----51% 47% * 1% * +/-5.5 65+ ----43% 54% 1% 1% * +/-5.0 No College Degree ------46% 51% * 2% 1% +/-4.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47% Ben Carson, the Republican 50% Other * Neither 2% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 Democrat ----89% 10% 1% * * +/-6.0 Independent -----42% 54% * 3% 1% +/-5.0 Republican -----9% 87% * 3% * +/-6.0 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47% Ben Carson, the Republican 50% Other * Neither 2% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 North east ----53% 40% * 5% 1% +/-7.0 Midwest ----48% 52% * * * +/-7.0 South ----45% 54% * 1% * +/-5.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47% Ben Carson, the Republican 50% Other * Neither 2% No opinion 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------11% 89% * * * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------37% 60% * 3% * +/-4.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------82% 16% 1% 2% * +/-5.5 Under 50 ----47% 51% * 2% * +/-6.0 50 and Older -----48% 50% 1% 1% * +/-4.0 College Degree -------50% 49% * 1% * +/-5.0 Lean Democrat -----84% 13% 1% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Liberal ----90% 9% 1% * * +/-7.0 Moderate ----48% 48% * 3% * +/-5.5 West ----45% 50% 1% 3% 1% +/-7.0 Urban ----64% 35% * 1% * +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----11% 86% * 2% * +/-4.5 Conservative ------24% 74% * 2% 1% +/-5.0 Suburban ----44% 53% * 2% 1% +/-5.0 Rural ----34% 63% * 3% * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 12 3 -8- November 27 – December 1, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- November 27 to December 1, 2015 Question 29/30 Q29. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Marco Rubio were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- ? Q30. As of today, do you lean more toward -- ? Base = Registered Voters Total Men Women White ----------------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% 41% 53% 37% Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% 55% 44% 60% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% Neither 2% 2% 2% 2% No opinion * 1% * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under Total $50K --------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% 54% Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% 43% Other 1% 1% Neither 2% 2% No opinion * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 3549 ----43% 55% * 2% * +/-8.0 $50K or more ------43% 55% 1% 1% * +/-4.5 Non-White --------73% 26% * 1% * +/-6.5 5064 ----49% 47% * 3% * +/-5.5 65+ ----43% 54% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 No College Degree ------48% 49% 1% 2% * +/-4.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Democrat ----90% 9% 1% 1% * +/-6.0 Independent -----42% 52% 1% 4% 1% +/-5.0 Republican -----10% 90% * 1% * +/-6.0 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 North east ----52% 45% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 Midwest ----49% 49% * 2% * +/-7.0 South ----45% 52% * 2% * +/-5.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------10% 88% * 2% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------39% 60% * 1% * +/-4.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------80% 16% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 Under 50 ----49% 49% 1% 1% * +/-6.0 50 and Older -----46% 50% 1% 2% * +/-4.0 College Degree -------48% 52% * 1% * +/-5.0 Lean Democrat -----86% 10% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----88% 9% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 Moderate ----47% 50% 1% 2% * +/-5.5 West ----46% 49% 1% 2% 1% +/-7.0 Urban ----64% 34% * 2% * +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----9% 90% * 1% * +/-4.5 Conservative ------26% 72% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 Suburban ----45% 53% 1% 1% 1% +/-5.0 Rural ----35% 60% 1% 4% * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 12 3 -9- November 27 – December 1, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- November 27 to December 1, 2015 Question 31/32 Q31. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Ted Cruz were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- ? Q32. As of today, do you lean more toward -- ? Base = Registered Voters Total Men Women White ----------------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 50% 44% 56% 38% Ted Cruz, the Republican 47% 53% 41% 59% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% Neither 2% 2% 3% 3% No opinion * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 50% Ted Cruz, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under Total $50K --------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 50% 54% Ted Cruz, the Republican 47% 42% Other 1% 1% Neither 2% 3% No opinion * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 3549 ----47% 51% * 1% * +/-8.0 Non-White --------78% 21% * 1% * +/-6.5 5064 ----51% 45% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 65+ ----46% 50% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 No College Degree ------50% 47% 1% 3% * +/-4.5 $50K or more ------48% 50% 1% 1% * +/-4.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 50% Ted Cruz, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Democrat ----93% 6% * 1% * +/-6.0 Independent -----44% 50% 1% 5% * +/-5.0 Republican -----13% 86% 1% * * +/-6.0 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 50% Ted Cruz, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 North east ----56% 40% * 4% * +/-7.0 Midwest ----53% 44% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 South ----48% 49% 1% 2% * +/-5.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 50% Ted Cruz, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 2% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------10% 87% 1% 2% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------40% 59% * 1% * +/-4.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------86% 10% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 Under 50 ----51% 47% * 2% * +/-6.0 50 and Older -----49% 48% 1% 2% * +/-4.0 College Degree -------51% 48% * 1% * +/-5.0 Lean Democrat -----89% 9% * 2% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----87% 9% 1% 3% * +/-7.0 Moderate ----53% 43% 1% 2% * +/-5.5 West ----45% 52% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 Urban ----66% 30% * 3% * +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----13% 85% 1% 1% * +/-4.5 Conservative ------27% 71% * 2% * +/-5.0 Suburban ----46% 52% 1% 1% * +/-5.0 Rural ----37% 58% 1% 4% * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 12 3 -10- November 27 – December 1, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- November 27 to December 1, 2015 Question 33/34 Q33. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Jeb Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- ? Q34. As of today, do you lean more toward -- ? Base = Registered Voters Total Men Women White ----------------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% 41% 55% 38% Jeb Bush, the Republican 47% 53% 41% 58% Other 1% 1% * * Neither 4% 5% 3% 4% No opinion * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Jeb Bush, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 4% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Under Total $50K --------Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% 56% Jeb Bush, the Republican 47% 41% Other 1% * Neither 4% 3% No opinion * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 3549 ----44% 49% 1% 6% * +/-8.0 Non-White --------75% 21% 1% 3% * +/-6.5 5064 ----51% 46% * 2% * +/-5.5 65+ ----46% 51% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 No College Degree ------49% 47% 1% 4% * +/-4.5 $50K or more ------43% 51% 1% 4% * +/-4.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Jeb Bush, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 4% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Democrat ----91% 7% 1% 1% * +/-6.0 Independent -----45% 48% 1% 5% * +/-5.0 Republican -----7% 89% * 4% * +/-6.0 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Jeb Bush, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 4% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 North east ----55% 39% 1% 5% * +/-7.0 Midwest ----51% 46% * 4% * +/-7.0 South ----44% 52% * 3% * +/-5.5 Total ----Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% Jeb Bush, the Republican 47% Other 1% Neither 4% No opinion * Sampling Error +/-3.0 Tea Pty Support ------6% 90% * 4% * +/-8.0 Tea Pty Neutral ------42% 54% * 3% * +/-4.5 Tea Pty Oppose ------81% 15% 1% 3% * +/-5.5 Under 50 ----49% 46% 1% 5% * +/-6.0 50 and Older -----49% 48% * 2% * +/-4.0 College Degree -------49% 47% 1% 3% * +/-5.0 Lean Democrat -----88% 10% 1% 2% * +/-5.0 Liberal ----91% 7% 1% 2% * +/-7.0 Moderate ----52% 41% 1% 6% * +/-5.5 West ----47% 49% 1% 4% * +/-7.0 Urban ----66% 31% * 3% * +/-6.0 Lean Republican -----9% 86% * 4% * +/-4.5 Conservative ------23% 74% 1% 3% * +/-5.0 Suburban ----43% 52% 1% 4% * +/-5.0 Rural ----36% 58% 2% 4% * +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 12 3 -11- November 27 – December 1, 2015