Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on July 22-25, 2015. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 898 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points). This sample includes 615 interviews among landline respondents and 402 interviews among cell phone respondents. EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Sunday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET BASED ON 252 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 208 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 460 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. BASED ON 230 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 189 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 419 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 15. Other than [CANDIDATE CHOICE IN Q11], which Republican presidential candidate do you most want to see on stage during the upcoming debates? (RANDOM ORDER) Trump Bush Walker Cruz Rubio Paul Carson Huckabee Perry Christie Kasich Fiorina Graham Jindal Santorum Pataki Gilmore Someone else (vol.) All of them None/No one No opinion 16. July 22-25 2015 July 22-25 2015 (RV) 18% 13% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% * * 1% 1% 5% 5% 18% 14% 7% 7% 8% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% * 1% 1% 5% 5% Thinking about Donald Trump’s candidacy for president, what would you most like to see happen: (RANDOM ORDER) July 22-25 2015 July 22-25 2015 (RV) 49% 52% 17% 15% 34% * 33% * Donald Trump remains in the race for the Republican nomination for president Donald Trump drops out of the Republican nomination contest and runs for president as an independent Donald Trump drops out of the race for president altogether No opinion POLL 7 3 -2- July 22-25, 2015 QUESTIONS 22 AND 23 ROTATED 22. Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president next year? (RANDOM ORDER) July 22-25 2015 Clinton Biden Sanders O’Malley Webb Chafee Someone else (vol.) No opinion 75% 9% 8% 1% 1% * 2% 4% FOR COMPARISON QUESTION WORDING: Just your best guess… regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president this year? Obama Clinton No opinion POLL 7 3 Apr. 28-30 2008 Jan. 9-10 2008 Oct.12-14 2007 57% 37% 5% 38% 55% 3% 16% 64% 6% -3- July 22-25, 2015 23. Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year? (RANDOM ORDER) July 22-25 2015 Bush 39% Trump 18% Walker 11% Rubio 6% Cruz 4% Christie 3% Paul 3% Carson 2% Huckabee 2% Graham 1% Kasich 1% Perry 1% Santorum 1% Fiorina * Gilmore * Jindal * Pataki * Someone else (vol.) 2% No opinion 6% FOR COMPARISON QUESTION WORDING: Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president this year? Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul Someone else (vol.) Bachmann Cain Huntsman Perry None/ No one (vol.) No opinion POLL 7 3 Feb. 10-13 2012 Dec. 16-18 2011 Oct. 14-16 2011 Sept. 9-11 2011 68% 13% 11% 5% * N/A N/A N/A N/A 1% 2% 41% 2% 37% 4% * 6% N/A * 4% 2% 3% 51% 1% 3% 3% * 3% 18% * 14% N/A 8% 28% 1% 6% 4% * 3% 5% 1% 41% 3% 2% -4- July 22-25, 2015 METHODOLOGY A total of 1,017 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. Among the entire sample, 29% described themselves as Democrats, 22% described themselves as Republicans, and 49% described themselves as independents or members of another party. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "N/A". POLL 7 3 -5- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 15 Which Republican presidential candidate do you most want to see on stage during the upcoming debates? Base = Republicans Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------13% 11% 15% 13% 5% 4% 6% 6% 3% 3% 3% 4% 7% 7% 8% 7% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 5% 6% 5% 6% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% * * 1% 1% 6% 7% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% 3% 7% 8% 7% 8% 2% 4% * 3% 18% 20% 16% 18% 8% 10% 5% 6% * * * * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 5% 6% 4% 5% 5% 2% 8% 3% +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----13% 5% 3% 7% 2% 2% 5% 2% 3% * 6% 4% 7% 2% 18% 8% * 1% 1% 5% 5% +/-4.5 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Reg. Evan Non-White Voters gelical --------- ------ ------N/A 14% 15% N/A 5% 8% N/A 4% 5% N/A 7% 8% N/A 3% 3% N/A 1% * N/A 5% 7% N/A 2% 1% N/A 3% 2% N/A 1% * N/A 6% 6% N/A 4% 5% N/A 8% 7% N/A 2% 2% N/A 18% 18% N/A 7% 6% N/A * * N/A 1% 2% N/A 1% 1% N/A 5% 3% N/A 5% 1% +/-5.0 +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----10% 6% 6% 6% 2% 1% 8% 5% 5% * 4% 2% 8% 1% 11% 13% * 2% 1% 6% 2% +/-7.0 Under 50 ----11% 2% 2% 8% 2% 3% 3% 1% 3% * 7% 6% 6% 3% 24% 5% * * 2% 5% 7% +/-8.0 50 and Older -----14% 8% 5% 6% 2% 1% 7% 3% 4% 1% 4% 1% 8% 1% 12% 11% * 2% 1% 6% 2% +/-5.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -6- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 15 Which Republican presidential candidate do you most want to see on stage during the upcoming debates? Base = Republicans Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------13% 11% 5% 6% 3% 6% 7% 7% 2% 3% 2% 4% 5% 6% 2% 1% 3% 4% * * 6% 6% 4% 3% 7% 4% 2% 4% 18% 15% 8% 6% * * 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 6% 5% 6% +/-4.5 +/-7.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----13% 5% 3% 7% 2% 2% 5% 2% 3% * 6% 4% 7% 2% 18% 8% * 1% 1% 5% 5% +/-4.5 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------15% 4% 2% 7% 1% 1% 4% 2% 3% 1% 6% 5% 10% 2% 22% 8% * * 1% 5% 1% +/-6.5 No College ------13% 5% 3% 8% 1% 3% 6% 1% 2% * 5% 4% 4% 3% 21% 9% * 1% * 7% 3% +/-8.0 Independent -----13% 4% 4% 8% 2% 3% 5% 2% 4% * 7% 4% 5% 1% 14% 8% * 1% 1% 9% 5% +/-7.0 Republican -----13% 6% 3% 6% 3% 1% 5% 1% 2% 1% 5% 4% 9% 3% 22% 7% * 1% 1% 3% 4% +/-6.0 Attended College -------13% 5% 4% 7% 3% 1% 4% 2% 5% 1% 6% 4% 9% 2% 15% 6% * * 2% 4% 6% +/-5.5 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----11% 1% 6% 10% 1% 4% 4% 2% 1% * 8% 4% 2% 4% 23% 4% * * 2% 6% 8% +/-8.5 Conservative ------13% 8% 2% 6% 3% 1% 6% 2% 4% 1% 5% 4% 11% 1% 17% 9% * 1% 1% 5% 1% +/-5.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -7- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 15 Which Republican presidential candidate do you most want to see on stage during the upcoming debates? Base = Republicans Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----13% 5% 3% 7% 2% 2% 5% 2% 3% * 6% 4% 7% 2% 18% 8% * 1% 1% 5% 5% +/-4.5 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----16% 5% 3% 11% 3% 2% 3% 2% * * 3% 6% 8% 1% 18% 4% * * 2% 6% 5% +/-7.5 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----12% 6% 3% 7% 1% 3% 3% 1% 5% 1% 6% 2% 6% 4% 22% 6% * 1% 2% 4% 4% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -8- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 15 Which Republican presidential candidate do you most want to see on stage during the upcoming debates? Base = Republican registered voters Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------14% 12% 16% 14% 5% 4% 7% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 7% 6% 8% 6% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% * 1% * 5% 6% 4% 6% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 1% * 1% 1% 6% 7% 4% 6% 4% 4% 5% 4% 8% 8% 7% 9% 2% 3% * 2% 18% 20% 15% 17% 7% 8% 5% 7% * * * * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 5% 7% 3% 5% 5% 2% 8% 3% +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----14% 5% 4% 7% 3% 1% 5% 2% 3% 1% 6% 4% 8% 2% 18% 7% * 1% 1% 5% 5% +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A White Reg. Evan Non-White Voters gelical --------- ------ ------N/A 14% 16% N/A 5% 8% N/A 4% 5% N/A 7% 9% N/A 3% 3% N/A 1% * N/A 5% 7% N/A 2% 1% N/A 3% 1% N/A 1% * N/A 6% 5% N/A 4% 6% N/A 8% 8% N/A 2% 2% N/A 18% 17% N/A 7% 6% N/A * * N/A 1% 2% N/A 1% 1% N/A 5% 3% N/A 5% 1% +/-5.0 +/-8.0 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65+ ----11% 7% 6% 7% 2% 1% 9% 4% 6% * 3% 2% 9% 1% 11% 13% * 2% 2% 5% 1% +/-7.0 Under 50 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 50 and Older -----15% 8% 6% 6% 2% 1% 7% 2% 4% 1% 4% 1% 9% 1% 13% 11% * 2% 1% 5% 2% +/-5.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -9- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 15 Which Republican presidential candidate do you most want to see on stage during the upcoming debates? Base = Republican registered voters Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------14% 12% 5% 6% 4% 6% 7% 6% 3% 4% 1% 1% 5% 7% 2% * 3% 4% 1% * 6% 6% 4% 3% 8% 5% 2% 3% 18% 13% 7% 6% * * 1% 1% 1% 2% 5% 5% 5% 8% +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----14% 5% 4% 7% 3% 1% 5% 2% 3% 1% 6% 4% 8% 2% 18% 7% * 1% 1% 5% 5% +/-5.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------16% 4% 3% 8% 1% 1% 4% 2% 3% 1% 5% 5% 10% 2% 22% 6% * * 1% 5% 1% +/-6.5 No College ------15% 5% 3% 8% 2% * 7% 1% 2% * 5% 4% 5% 2% 20% 8% * 2% * 6% 4% +/-8.5 Independent -----13% 3% 5% 8% 2% * 5% 2% 5% * 8% 4% 6% 1% 15% 7% * 1% 2% 7% 5% +/-7.0 Republican -----14% 7% 3% 6% 3% 1% 5% 2% 2% 1% 4% 4% 10% 2% 20% 6% * 1% 1% 3% 4% +/-6.5 Attended College -------13% 5% 4% 6% 3% 1% 4% 2% 5% 1% 6% 4% 10% 2% 16% 6% * * 3% 4% 6% +/-6.0 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------14% 8% 3% 6% 3% 1% 6% 2% 4% 1% 5% 4% 12% * 16% 8% * 1% 1% 5% 1% +/-6.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -10- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 15 Which Republican presidential candidate do you most want to see on stage during the upcoming debates? Base = Republican registered voters Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else All of them None/no one No opinion Sampling Error Total ----14% 5% 4% 7% 3% 1% 5% 2% 3% 1% 6% 4% 8% 2% 18% 7% * 1% 1% 5% 5% +/-5.0 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A South ----17% 5% 4% 11% 4% 1% 2% 2% * * 2% 7% 8% 1% 18% 5% * * 2% 4% 5% +/-8.0 West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Suburban ----12% 6% 4% 8% 1% * 4% 2% 5% 1% 5% 2% 7% 3% 22% 6% * 1% 2% 4% 4% +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -11- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 16 Thinking about Donald Trump's candidacy for president, what would you most like to see happen: Donald Trump remains in the race for the Republican nomination for president Donald Trump drops out of the Republican nomination contest and runs for president as an independent Donald Trump drops out of the race for president altogether Base = Republicans Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------49% 52% 44% 52% 17% 18% 16% 17% 34% 29% 39% 30% * * * * +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 17% 34% * +/-4.5 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------49% 48% 17% 18% 34% 34% * * +/-4.5 +/-7.5 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 17% 34% * +/-4.5 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total ----49% 17% 34% * +/-4.5 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A White Reg. Evan Non-White Voters gelical --------- ------ ------N/A 52% 57% N/A 15% 20% N/A 33% 23% N/A * 1% +/-5.0 +/-7.5 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------48% 17% 35% * +/-6.5 65+ ----51% 9% 39% 1% +/-7.0 No College ------53% 16% 30% * +/-8.0 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----42% 21% 37% * +/-7.0 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----55% 14% 31% * +/-6.0 South ----46% 15% 38% 1% +/-7.5 Under 50 ----48% 20% 31% * +/-8.0 50 and Older -----48% 15% 37% * +/-5.5 Attended College -------45% 18% 36% * +/-5.5 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----35% 21% 44% * +/-8.5 Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------56% 16% 28% * +/-5.5 Suburban ----50% 18% 32% * +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -12- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 16 Thinking about Donald Trump's candidacy for president, what would you most like to see happen: Donald Trump remains in the race for the Republican nomination for president Donald Trump drops out of the Republican nomination contest and runs for president as an independent Donald Trump drops out of the race for president altogether Base = Republican registered voters Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------52% 55% 47% 55% 15% 13% 17% 16% 33% 31% 36% 29% * * * * +/-5.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.0 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total ----52% 15% 33% * +/-5.0 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------52% 54% 15% 15% 33% 31% * * +/-5.0 +/-8.0 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total ----52% 15% 33% * +/-5.0 Trump remains in GOP race Trump runs as an independent Trump drops out of the race No opinion Sampling Error Total ----52% 15% 33% * +/-5.0 1834 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 3549 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A White Reg. Evan Non-White Voters gelical --------- ------ ------N/A 52% 58% N/A 15% 19% N/A 33% 22% N/A * 1% +/-5.0 +/-8.0 5064 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A $50K or more ------49% 15% 36% * +/-6.5 65+ ----52% 9% 38% 1% +/-7.0 No College ------60% 10% 30% * +/-8.5 Democrat ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Independent -----45% 19% 36% * +/-7.0 North east ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Midwest ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Republican -----58% 11% 31% * +/-6.5 South ----47% 14% 38% 1% +/-8.0 Under 50 ----N/A N/A N/A N/A 50 and Older -----50% 14% 36% * +/-5.5 Attended College -------46% 18% 35% * +/-6.0 Liberal ----N/A N/A N/A N/A West ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Moderate ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Urban ----N/A N/A N/A N/A Conservative ------58% 14% 27% * +/-6.0 Suburban ----51% 15% 34% * +/-7.0 Rural ----N/A N/A N/A N/A * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -13- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 22 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president next year? Base = Total Sample Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------9% 8% 10% 7% 75% 73% 76% 74% 1% 1% 1% 1% 8% 12% 5% 9% 1% 2% 1% 1% * * * * 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----9% 75% 1% 8% 1% * 2% 4% +/-3.0 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------9% 11% 75% 71% 1% 1% 8% 10% 1% 2% * * 2% 2% 4% 3% +/-3.0 +/-5.0 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----9% 75% 1% 8% 1% * 2% 4% +/-3.0 Democrat ----7% 82% * 7% * * 1% 1% +/-6.0 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----9% 75% 1% 8% 1% * 2% 4% +/-3.0 North east ----14% 69% * 8% 2% * 1% 5% +/-6.5 1834 ----11% 70% 1% 12% * * 2% 4% +/-7.5 3549 ----8% 79% * 7% 1% 1% 2% 2% +/-7.0 5064 ----9% 74% 1% 7% 2% * 3% 4% +/-6.0 $50K or more ------6% 80% 1% 7% 1% * 2% 2% +/-4.5 65+ ----6% 77% * 8% 2% * 2% 4% +/-5.0 No College ------12% 70% 1% 9% 1% 1% 3% 4% +/-5.5 Independent -----9% 72% 1% 10% 1% * 1% 4% +/-4.5 Midwest ----8% 76% 1% 8% 1% * 2% 3% +/-6.5 White Reg. Evan Non-White Voters gelical --------- ------ ------11% 8% 7% 75% 76% 73% * * * 7% 9% 9% 2% 2% 1% * * * 1% 2% 7% 3% 4% 3% +/-6.0 +/-3.5 +/-6.5 50 and Older -----8% 75% 1% 8% 2% * 2% 4% +/-4.0 Attended College -------6% 78% 1% 8% 1% * 2% 3% +/-4.0 Republican -----10% 71% 1% 6% 3% * 6% 4% +/-6.0 South ----9% 75% * 7% 2% * 3% 4% +/-5.5 Under 50 ----10% 74% 1% 9% 1% * 2% 3% +/-5.0 Liberal ----7% 75% * 12% 1% * 2% 4% +/-6.5 West ----5% 78% 1% 11% 1% * 1% 3% +/-6.5 Moderate ----9% 76% 1% 9% 1% * 2% 2% +/-5.0 Urban ----9% 77% 1% 8% 1% * 3% 2% +/-5.5 Conservative ------9% 74% 1% 6% 3% * 3% 3% +/-5.0 Suburban ----9% 74% * 9% 1% * 2% 4% +/-4.5 Rural ----9% 74% * 7% 1% 1% 2% 6% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -14- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 22 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Democratic candidate do you think is most likely to win the Democratic nomination for president next year? Base = Registered voters Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total Men Women White ----------------8% 6% 9% 6% 76% 75% 77% 75% * 1% * 1% 9% 12% 5% 10% 2% 2% 1% 1% * * * * 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% +/-3.5 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-4.0 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----8% 76% * 9% 2% * 2% 4% +/-3.5 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Under Total $50K --------8% 11% 76% 71% * * 9% 11% 2% 2% * * 2% 2% 4% 4% +/-3.5 +/-5.0 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----8% 76% * 9% 2% * 2% 4% +/-3.5 Democrat ----7% 84% * 7% * * * 1% +/-6.0 Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Jim Webb Lincoln Chaffee Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----8% 76% * 9% 2% * 2% 4% +/-3.5 North east ----12% 69% * 9% 2% * 1% 6% +/-7.0 1834 ----9% 71% * 12% * * 2% 5% +/-8.5 3549 ----7% 79% * 8% 2% * 3% 2% +/-7.5 5064 ----8% 76% 1% 7% 2% * 1% 5% +/-6.5 $50K or more ------4% 82% 1% 7% 1% * 3% 2% +/-5.0 65+ ----6% 77% 1% 8% 3% * 2% 5% +/-5.0 No College ------10% 71% 1% 9% 2% * 2% 4% +/-6.0 Independent -----9% 71% 1% 11% 2% * 1% 5% +/-5.0 Midwest ----9% 77% 1% 8% 1% * 1% 4% +/-7.0 White Reg. Evan Non-White Voters gelical --------- ------ ------11% 8% 6% 77% 76% 73% * * * 6% 9% 10% 2% 2% 1% * * * 1% 2% 6% 4% 4% 3% +/-7.0 +/-3.5 +/-6.5 50 and Older -----7% 76% 1% 7% 2% * 2% 5% +/-4.0 Attended College -------6% 79% * 8% 1% * 2% 4% +/-4.0 Republican -----6% 73% * 7% 3% * 7% 4% +/-6.5 South ----6% 77% * 8% 2% * 3% 4% +/-5.5 Under 50 ----8% 75% * 10% 1% * 3% 4% +/-5.5 Liberal ----6% 76% * 12% 1% * 1% 4% +/-7.0 West ----5% 78% * 10% 1% * 2% 3% +/-7.0 Moderate ----8% 78% * 9% 1% * 2% 3% +/-5.5 Urban ----8% 76% 1% 9% 2% * 3% 2% +/-6.0 Conservative ------7% 75% 1% 7% 3% * 3% 3% +/-5.0 Suburban ----7% 76% 1% 9% 1% * 2% 5% +/-5.0 Rural ----8% 75% * 7% 1% * 2% 6% +/-7.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -15- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 23 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year? Base = Total Sample White Reg. Evan Total Men Women White Non-White Voters gelical ------------------------- ------ ------Jeb Bush 39% 40% 38% 40% 36% 40% 32% Ben Carson 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% Chris Christie 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% * Ted Cruz 4% 5% 2% 3% 5% 4% 5% Carly Fiorina * * 1% 1% * * 1% Lindsey Graham 1% * 1% * 2% 1% * Mike Huckabee 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 5% Bobby Jindal * 1% * * * * * John Kasich 1% 1% 1% 1% * 1% 1% George Pataki * * * * * * * Rand Paul 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% Rick Perry 1% 2% * * 2% 1% 1% Marco Rubio 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% Rick Santorum 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% * Donald Trump 18% 19% 17% 18% 18% 18% 24% Scott Walker 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% Jim Gilmore * * 1% * 1% * * Someone else 2% * 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% No opinion 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 +/-6.0 +/-3.5 +/-6.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----39% 2% 3% 4% * 1% 2% * 1% * 3% 1% 6% 1% 18% 11% * 2% 6% +/-3.0 1834 ----32% 1% * 4% * 2% 4% * * * 6% * 4% 4% 27% 11% * 1% 3% +/-7.5 Under Total $50K --------39% 35% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 3% * * 1% 1% 2% 3% * * 1% 1% * * 3% 3% 1% 2% 6% 4% 1% 2% 18% 21% 11% 13% * 1% 2% 2% 6% 4% +/-3.0 +/-5.0 3549 ----42% 1% 2% 5% * * * 1% * * 2% 3% 9% * 15% 12% * 1% 7% +/-7.0 $50K or more ------47% 2% 2% 5% * * 1% 1% 2% * 3% 1% 7% * 15% 9% * 2% 5% +/-4.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error * percentage less than 1% CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 23 POLL 7 3 5064 ----43% 3% 5% 3% 1% * * * 2% * 1% 1% 6% * 14% 10% 1% 2% 7% +/-6.0 No College ------31% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% * 1% * 3% 2% 6% 1% 24% 10% 1% 2% 6% +/-5.5 -16- 65+ ----41% 2% 3% 3% * * 4% * 2% 1% 2% * 4% * 13% 9% * 5% 9% +/-5.0 Under 50 ----37% 1% 1% 4% * 1% 2% * * * 4% 1% 6% 2% 22% 12% * 1% 5% +/-5.0 50 and Older -----42% 3% 4% 3% 1% * 2% * 2% * 1% 1% 5% * 13% 10% 1% 3% 8% +/-4.0 Attended College -------45% 1% 2% 5% * 1% 2% * 1% * 2% * 5% 2% 14% 12% * 2% 6% +/-4.0 July 22-25, 2015 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year? Base = Total Sample Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----39% 2% 3% 4% * 1% 2% * 1% * 3% 1% 6% 1% 18% 11% * 2% 6% +/-3.0 Democrat ----48% 1% 2% 3% * 1% 2% * 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% * 13% 10% 1% 3% 8% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----39% 2% 3% 4% * 1% 2% * 1% * 3% 1% 6% 1% 18% 11% * 2% 6% +/-3.0 North east ----42% 1% 4% 3% * * 2% * 1% 1% 3% * 5% 1% 18% 10% 2% 2% 6% +/-6.5 Independent -----38% 2% 3% 5% 1% 1% 2% * 1% * 4% 1% 6% 2% 20% 8% * 1% 5% +/-4.5 Midwest ----37% 3% 3% 4% 1% * 1% 1% 3% * 3% * 2% * 18% 14% * 4% 7% +/-6.5 Republican -----30% 1% 4% 4% * * 3% 1% 1% * 1% 1% 8% 1% 21% 18% * 2% 6% +/-6.0 South ----41% 1% 2% 4% * 1% 3% * * * 3% 3% 4% 3% 18% 9% * 1% 5% +/-5.5 Liberal ----46% * 2% 5% 1% * 2% * 1% * 5% * 3% 2% 16% 9% 1% 2% 7% +/-6.5 West ----36% 1% 2% 3% * 1% 2% * 1% * 2% * 11% * 17% 11% * 2% 8% +/-6.5 Moderate ----42% 1% 2% 4% * 1% 1% * 1% * 3% 2% 5% 2% 16% 10% * 2% 6% +/-5.0 Urban ----36% 1% 4% 5% 1% 2% 1% * 1% * * * 7% 1% 18% 13% 1% 1% 7% +/-5.5 Conservative ------32% 3% 4% 3% * 1% 2% 1% 2% * 1% 1% 7% * 21% 13% * 3% 6% +/-5.0 Suburban ----43% 2% 2% 4% * * 2% 1% 1% * 2% 2% 4% 2% 17% 9% * 3% 6% +/-4.5 Rural ----40% 2% * 3% * * 4% * 1% * 8% 1% 6% 1% 16% 12% * 1% 6% +/-6.5 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -17- July 22-25, 2015 CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 23 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year? Base = Registered voters White Reg. Evan Total Men Women White Non-White Voters gelical ------------------------- ------ ------Jeb Bush 40% 42% 39% 43% 35% 40% 35% Ben Carson 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% Chris Christie 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% * Ted Cruz 4% 6% 2% 3% 5% 4% 5% Carly Fiorina * * 1% 1% * * 1% Lindsey Graham 1% * 2% * 2% 1% * Mike Huckabee 2% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2% 4% Bobby Jindal * 1% * 1% * * * John Kasich 1% 1% 1% 2% * 1% 1% George Pataki * * * * * * * Rand Paul 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% Rick Perry 1% 2% * * 3% 1% 1% Marco Rubio 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% Rick Santorum 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% * Donald Trump 18% 18% 17% 17% 18% 18% 23% Scott Walker 11% 12% 10% 11% 12% 11% 13% Jim Gilmore * * 1% * 1% * * Someone else 2% * 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% No opinion 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% Sampling Error +/-3.5 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-4.0 +/-7.0 +/-3.5 +/-6.5 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----40% 2% 2% 4% * 1% 2% * 1% * 2% 1% 5% 2% 18% 11% * 2% 7% +/-3.5 1834 ----33% 1% * 3% 1% 3% 4% * * * 4% * 3% 5% 28% 11% * 1% 3% +/-8.5 Under Total $50K --------40% 37% 2% 1% 2% 2% 4% 2% * * 1% 2% 2% 3% * * 1% 1% * * 2% 3% 1% 2% 5% 3% 2% 3% 18% 22% 11% 12% * 1% 2% 2% 7% 4% +/-3.5 +/-5.0 3549 ----44% 1% * 5% * * * 1% * * 2% 3% 6% * 16% 12% * 1% 8% +/-7.5 $50K or more ------46% 3% 1% 5% * * 1% 1% 2% * 2% 1% 6% * 14% 10% * 2% 5% +/-5.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error * percentage less than 1% CNN/ORC International Poll -- July 22 to 25, 2015 Question 23 POLL 7 3 5064 ----44% 3% 5% 3% * * * * 3% * 1% 1% 6% * 12% 11% 1% 1% 7% +/-6.5 No College ------35% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% * 1% * 3% 3% 4% 1% 23% 10% 1% 2% 7% +/-6.0 -18- 65+ ----41% 2% 2% 3% * * 4% * 2% 1% 2% * 3% * 13% 10% * 5% 9% +/-5.0 Under 50 ----39% 1% * 4% * 1% 2% 1% * * 3% 2% 4% 3% 22% 11% * 1% 5% +/-5.5 50 and Older -----43% 3% 4% 3% * * 2% * 3% * 2% 1% 5% * 12% 11% 1% 3% 8% +/-4.0 Attended College -------44% 2% 2% 5% * 1% 2% * 1% * 2% * 5% 2% 14% 12% * 2% 6% +/-4.0 July 22-25, 2015 Just your best guess... Regardless of who you support, which Republican candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president next year? Base = Registered voters Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----40% 2% 2% 4% * 1% 2% * 1% * 2% 1% 5% 2% 18% 11% * 2% 7% +/-3.5 Democrat ----50% 1% * 3% * 2% 2% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% * 13% 10% 1% 2% 9% +/-6.0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Jim Gilmore Someone else No opinion Sampling Error Total ----40% 2% 2% 4% * 1% 2% * 1% * 2% 1% 5% 2% 18% 11% * 2% 7% +/-3.5 North east ----45% 2% 2% 2% * * 2% * 1% 1% 2% * 4% 1% 16% 9% 2% 3% 6% +/-7.0 Independent -----38% 3% 2% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% * 4% 1% 4% 3% 18% 9% * 2% 6% +/-5.0 Midwest ----37% 3% 3% 5% 2% * * 1% 3% * 3% * 3% * 18% 14% * 2% 7% +/-7.0 Republican -----32% 1% 3% 4% * * 2% 1% * * 1% 1% 7% 1% 23% 16% * 2% 6% +/-6.5 South ----40% 2% 1% 5% * 1% 3% * * * 2% 3% 4% 4% 18% 9% * 1% 5% +/-5.5 Liberal ----50% * 1% 5% 1% * 2% * 1% * 3% * 4% 2% 12% 8% 2% * 8% +/-7.0 West ----40% 2% 2% 2% * 1% 1% * 1% * 2% * 8% 1% 17% 12% * 3% 8% +/-7.0 Moderate ----43% 1% 1% 4% * 1% 1% * 1% * 3% 2% 3% 3% 16% 10% * 2% 7% +/-5.5 Urban ----39% 1% 2% 5% * 2% 2% * 1% * 1% * 5% 1% 16% 13% 1% 2% 7% +/-6.0 Conservative ------33% 3% 3% 3% * 1% 2% 1% 1% * 1% 1% 6% * 22% 13% * 3% 6% +/-5.0 Suburban ----43% 2% 2% 3% 1% * 2% 1% 2% * 2% 2% 4% 2% 17% 9% * 3% 7% +/-5.0 Rural ----40% 3% * 3% * * 4% * 1% * 7% 1% 6% 1% 16% 13% * 1% 5% +/-7.0 * percentage less than 1% POLL 7 3 -19- July 22-25, 2015