(C)THE ELWAY POLL 21 OCT 13 OCTOBER 21, 2013 I-522: Support for Food Labeling Initiative Swings Negative 41 Points Since September What a difference a month and a few million dollars makes. Initiative 522, which would mandate labeling of genetically modified food, was leading by just 4 points last week after posting a 45-point lead five weeks ago--before the advertising campaigns had begun. Support dropped 20 points while opposition increased by 21 points, including an increase from 11% to 33% who said they would "definitely" vote against it. Both sides are advertising heavily in what may be the INCLINED TO VOTE ON I-522 most expensive initiative campaign in state history. Eight DEF YES PROB YES UNDEC PROB NO DEF NO in 10 (81%) of the 413 voters interviewed last week had seen advertising on this initiative, including: 33 12 OCT 37 56% who had seen ads on both sides; 14% who had seen only ads in favor; and 11% who had seen only ads against the measure. 19% had seen no ads (their TVs must be in the shop). Opponents have a slight advertising advantage. 11 12 SEPT 43 Among voters who had seen both "pro" and "con" ads, 47% planned to vote against I-522, versus 43% who planned to vote for it. Meanwhile, 3 in 4 voters who had seen only advertising for one side or the other were planning to vote in the direction of the ads they have seen. Those VOTE ON I-522 BY ADVERTSING SEEN who have seen no advertising planned to vote "yes" by a 75 73 17-point margin--about the same margin the "yes" side YES NO UNDEC had before the advertising blitz began. The reasons voters for their positions also indicated 47 44 43 the impact of the opponents' advertising. The top 3 rea29 sons volunteered by those voting "no" were themes 27 27 stressed in opponents' ads: the measure is unnecessary 17 (17%); would cause food costs to rise (16%); or is poorly 10 8 written, with too many confusing exceptions (14%). PRO ADS CON ADS BOTH NONE/DK Supporters focused on consumers' right to know what they are eating. 69% gave a variation of that reason: 41% said they wanted to know what was in their food; REASONS TO VOTE FOR AND AGAINST I-522 17% said consumers have a right to know; and another 11% just said that food should FOR AGAINST be labeled. 41% I Want to Know What I'm Eating 17% Not Needed Voter turnout could be decisive, as usual in off-year elections. The measure 17% Consumers Have Right to Know 16% Food Costs Will Rise was trailing 46-44% among "perfect vot- 11% Food Should Be Labeled 14% Poor Written/ Many Exemptions ers" (voted in all 4 of the last 4 elections) 4% GM Food Bad for Health 12% Oppose Gov't Regulations but was leading 49-37% among voters 4% I Don't Want to Eat GM Food 7% GM Food is Safe who have voted less than half the time. ? 46 42 66 Copying Not intended for the (C) THE ELWAY POLL is Permitted exclusive use of its subscribers. 21 The material contained herein may not be copied or disseminated without the written consent of Elway Research, Inc. Excerpts may be quoted with attribution. (C)THE ELWAY POLL Sample Profile 413 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington state, were interviewed Oct. 15-17, 2013 by live, professional interviewers. 18% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is ?5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100 times, the results would be within ?5% of the results reported here at least 95 times. REGION King County ........................................ 30% Pierce + Kitsap ................................... 15% North Sound (Snohomish to Whatcom) ........17% Western Washington (Clallam to Clark).....17% Eastern Washington ........................... 21% GENDER Male .................................................... 50% Female................................................ 50% AGE 18-35................................................... 13% 36-50................................................... 15% 51-64................................................... 40% 65+...................................................... 29% PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrat ............................................ 31% Republican ......................................... 23% Independent........................................ 46% VOTE HISTORY (LAST 4 ELECTIONS) 0-2 VOTES CAST............................... 40% 3 VOTES CAST.................................. 21% 4 VOTES CAST.................................. 40% 21 OCT 13 Other findings of note: ?Support for the measure was related to age: It led 65-25% among voters age 35 and under; Led 48-39% among those 36-64; but Trailed 53-35% among those over 65. ?It led among women (50-38%) but Trailed among men (46-42%). ?It led among Democrats (58-34%); Trailed among Republicans (48-37%); and Independents were split (44-44%). ?It led in Seattle (69-21%); King County outside Seattle (47-41%); and North Puget Sound (52-34). ?It trailed in the rest of Western WA (46-37%) and Eastern WA (51-41%). Momentum is on the side of I-522 opponents, but history is on the side of proponents. Of 22 initiatives since 1992 which had support north of 60% in the September The Elway Poll , 17 have won. # HOUSEHOLD INCOME <$50,000............................................. 29% $50-75,000 ......................................... 22% $75-100,000 ....................................... 17% $100,000+........................................... 13% No Answer .......................................... 18% The Elway Poll The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public opinion in Washington and the Northwest available exclusively to subscribers. SUBSCRIPTION: An annual subscription is $250. PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS: Each month, space is reserved in the questionnaire to allow subscribers to ask proprietary questions. The fee for proprietary questions is $600 per question. You will receive the results of your question(s) with full crosstabulations within three days after the interviews are completed. CROSSTABS: A full set of cross-tabulation tables for any month's survey is available for $100. The Elway Poll 7 03 5 P a l at i n e N . Seattle, WA 98103 206/264-1500 FAX: 264-0301 epoll@elwayresearch.com Copying Not Permitted QUESTION WORDING: Another measure on the ballot is Initiative 522, which concerns the labeling of genetically-engineered foods. Have you seen or heard an advertising either for or against this initiative? [Have you seen ads in favor or opposed or both?] YES - seen ads in favor YES - seen ads opposed YES - seen ads both favor and opposed NO - have not seen any ads Initiative 522 would require most raw agricultural commodities, processed foods, and seeds and seed stocks, if produced using genetic engineering, as defined, to be labeled as genetically engineered when offered for retail sale. As things stand today, how are you inclined to vote on Initiative 522? Would you say...Definitely in Favor...Probably in Favor...Probably Opposed...Definitely Opposed What is the main reason you intend to vote For / Against Initiative 522? [OPEN ENDED} 2