A brief from Sept 2013 Philadelphians Give Lowest Rating in Five Years to City's Public Schools Poll finds that residents expect families to seek other educational options or leave city Overview A new poll from The Pew Charitable Trusts finds that Philadelphians have a very low opinion of their city's financially distressed public school district and that most residents think the system's problems will drive families to seek other educational options or leave the city. Only 18 percent of the Philadelphians surveyed said the schools are doing a good or excellent job. This is the lowest positive rating in the five years that Pew has been polling on this topic; 78 percent described the schools as "only fair" or poor, and 52 percent of all respondents opted for poor. Last year, only 35 percent gave that grade to the schools. Residents were split on whom to blame for the funding crisis, which has resulted in reduced staffing in schools and larger class sizes. Thirty-one percent said Mayor Michael Nutter and the City Council bear the most responsibility, while the same percentage placed the blame on Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett and the state Legislature. Twenty-one percent cited the school administration and School Reform Commission. And 11 percent named the labor unions representing teachers and other school employees. As a result of the school district's difficulties, 48 percent of Philadelphians said they expect families to seek other educational options within the city, and 23 percent expect families to start leaving. Twenty percent said the situation will make little difference on where families send their children to school. In response to a separate question--this one posed to those individuals, roughly one-third of all respondents, who expect to move out of the city in the next five to 10 years--23 percent listed schools and child-rearing issues as a primary reason for departing. Factors cited more frequently were job and career (29 percent) and crime and safety (25 percent). Concern about the schools also arose when Philadelphians were asked whether they would recommend the city to five different categories of friends: young adults, older adults with no children at home, and people looking to get good jobs, go to college, or raise children. Forty-eight percent of residents said they would not recommend the city as a place to raise children, while 44 percent said they would. But charter schools, which are publicly funded and independently run, remain a popular option for families, with respondents choosing a positive description of these schools over a negative one by a ratio of more than 2-to-1. Rating the school system In each of the past five years, Pew has asked Philadelphians to rate the public school system. In none of those years was the rating high, but the current survey produced the lowest rating yet--and by a significant margin. Only 18 percent of residents polled described the system as excellent or good, down from 23 percent in 2012 and 30 percent in 2009. Seventy-eight percent gave it a grade of poor or "only fair," compared with 71 percent last year and 63 percent in 2009. (See Figure 1.) And 52 percent rated the system as poor--a dramatic change from 35 percent in 2012 and 28 percent in 2009. Parents with children in district-run schools gave the public system slightly higher marks: Twenty-three percent of them described the schools as good or excellent. Only 10 percent of parents who have chosen to place their children in Catholic or private schools described the public schools that way. The poll was conducted during a widely publicized school funding crisis, which initially prompted Superintendent William R. Hite Jr. to issue 3,783 layoff notices and threaten to delay the opening of schools. As it turned out, schools opened on time with diminished staffs. Figure 1 Rating Philadelphia's Public Schools Percentage 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Good or excellent 30 24 24 23 18 Only fair or poor 63 64 68 71 78 Don't know/refused 7 12 8 6 4 Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll (C) 2013 The Pew Charitable Trusts 2 Figure 2 Who Is Most Responsible for Philadelphia 's School Funding Crisis? 21 % Mayor Nutter and the City Council 31 % The school administration and the School Reform Commission 11 % The unions representing teachers and other employees Governor Corbett and the state Legislature 31 % 6 % Don't know/refused Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll (C) 2013 The Pew Charitable Trusts Responsibility for the funding crisis The city and state provide funding for the school district, and the crisis has involved the state government, city government, school administration, and labor unions representing teachers and other school employees. In the survey, residents were asked which party was most responsible for the situation. Thirty-one percent selected Mayor Nutter and the City Council as being most responsible for the crisis, and 31 percent chose Governor Corbett and the state Legislature. Twenty-one percent blamed the school administration and School Reform Commission, the appointed body that runs the schools, and 11 percent named the unions. (See Figure 2.) Blacks were slightly more likely than whites to blame city and state officials. Whites were slightly more likely than blacks to blame the school administration and the unions. Impact of the crisis on families City officials and civic activists have long said that the performance and perception of the school system are key factors in whether families, particularly those with higher incomes, choose to stay in the city or to leave for the suburbs when their children reach school age. Those concerns, which have been elevated by the funding crisis, were reflected in the poll in several ways. 3 Figure 3 Philadelphians' View of the Consequences of the School Funding Crisis on Families Families will seek other education options within the city 48 % 4 5 % Don't know/ refused % Some families will leave, and others will seek options in the city Families will start leaving the city 23 % 20 % It will not make much of a difference Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll (C) 2013 The Pew Charitable Trusts Asked about the potential consequences of the school funding crisis, 48 percent of Philadelphians said families would seek other education options within the city, 23 percent said families would start to leave the city, and 5 percent said families would do both. Only 20 percent said the situation would not make much of a difference. (See Figure 3.) Among parents with children under 18, the answers were virtually the same. Separately, residents were questioned about whether they expected to be living in Philadelphia five to 10 years from now. Thirty-six percent said they definitely or probably would leave, and they were asked why. This was an openended question (as opposed to multiple choice), and respondents were permitted to give more than one answer. Schools and factors related to children were cited by 23 percent of this group as a reason for leaving the city. Two other sets of factors--job/career concerns (29 percent) and crime/safety issues (25 percent)--were mentioned more often. Other frequent responses included a general feeling that the city is going downhill (15 percent); personal reasons related to family and friends (12 percent); a preference for a suburban lifestyle (11 percent); and government-related factors including taxes and the quality of public services (11 percent). Recommending the city as a place to live To get a sense of residents' views of the city's strengths and weaknesses, including the schools, the survey asked Philadelphians whether they would recommend the city to a friend. Overall, 61 percent said they would, a level 4 Figure 4 Recommending Philadelphia to a Friend Percentage Would Would not Depends Don't know/ refused To get a college education 85 12 2 1 For young adults 65 29 5 1 For older adults with no children at home 61 33 4 2 To get a good job 48 39 7 5 To raise children 44 48 7 1 Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll (C) 2013 The Pew Charitable Trusts that is down marginally from years past, when it ranged from 62 percent to 66 percent. Residents were bullish on the city as a place to get a college education (85 percent), for young adults (65 percent), and for older adults with no children at home (61 percent). Forty-eight percent would recommend it as a place to get a good job, while 39 percent would not; the local unemployment rate was above 10 percent in the first half of 2013. Only 44 percent said they would endorse the city as a place to raise children, while 48 percent would not, the one case in this category in which the negative responses outnumbered the positive. (See Figure 4.) Among those with the lowest opinion of Philadelphia as a place to raise children were the young adults who have helped fuel the city's recent population increase. Only 38 percent of individuals ages 18 to 34 said they would recommend the city for the raising of children, compared with 55 percent who said they would not. Among young African American adults, there was a similar result, with 36 percent of blacks under age 40 touting the city as a good place for young families, and 57 percent voicing a negative view. Charter schools Charter schools, which are publicly financed and independently run, have become an increasingly significant player in K-12 education in Philadelphia, with enrollment tripling over the past 10 years. The school district's difficulties are likely to increase demand for charter seats, even though the academic performance of the schools has varied widely and several have experienced financial mismanagement. 5 Figure 5 Philadelphians' Opinions of Charter Schools Improve education options and help keep middle-class families in the city 64 % 26 % Take too much money away from the public schools and lack sufficient oversight 6 % Both/can't choose 4 % Don't know/refused Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll (C) 2013 The Pew Charitable Trusts Residents who said they were aware of charters (78 percent) were asked to choose which of two common perceptions of the institutions best matched their views. Sixty-four percent selected the positive choice, that the schools "improve education options and help keep middle-class families in the city," while 26 percent chose the negative perception, that charters "take too much money away from the public schools and lack sufficient oversight." Six percent said they could not make a choice, and 4 percent refused to answer or did not know. (See Figure 5.) About the survey The Pew survey was conducted by telephone from July 23 to Aug. 13, 2013, among a citywide random sample of 1,605 city residents 18 and older. Interviews were conducted with 530 landline users and 1,075 cellphone users to reach a broad representative sample of Philadelphians. The final sample was weighted to reflect the demographic breakdown of the city. The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, record error, and respondent error. Abt SRBI Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviews, working with Cliff Zukin, a veteran pollster and professor of public policy and political science at Rutgers University. This report was written by Larry Eichel, a director of Pew's Philadelphia program who oversees the Philadelphia research initiative. 6 About the Philadelphia research initiative Pew's Philadelphia research initiative provides timely, impartial research and analysis on key issues facing Philadelphia for the benefit of the city's residents and leaders. Visit www.pewtrusts.org/philaresearch for more information. Pew Philadelphia Poll/Abt SRBI Topline Results for Selected Questions July 23-Aug. 13, 2013 Base is 1,605 Philadelphia residents, except where noted. All things considered, do you think you would or would not recommend Philadelphia to a friend as a place to live? Would 61% Would not 31% Depends 7% Don't know/refused 1% And do you think you would or would not recommend Philadelphia for each of the following? To get a good job Would 48% Would not 39% Depends 7% Don't know/refused 5% For older adults with no children at home Would 61% Would not 33% Depends 4% Don't know/refused 2% 7 For young adults Would 65% Would not 29% Depends 5% Don't know/refused 1% To raise children Would 44% Would not 48% Depends 7% Don't know/refused 1% To get a college education Would 85% Would not 12% Depends 2% Don't know/refused 2% How would you rate the job public schools are doing in Philadelphia? Excellent 4% Good 14% Only fair 26% Poor 52% Don't know/refused 4% So you may know, the Philadelphia school district has been struggling with a major budget crisis. I'm going to read you four groups of people and ask you how much each is to blame for the problem. The Philadelphia school administration and School Reform Commission A great deal 45% Some 33% Just a little 14% None 2% Don't know/refused 6% 8 Mayor Nutter and the City Council A great deal 49% Some 31% Just a little 14% None 3% Don't know/refused 4% Governor Corbett and the state Legislature A great deal 44% Some 32% Just a little 15% None 3% Don't know/refused 7% The unions representing the teachers and other school employees A great deal 22% Some 36% Just a little 28% None 8% Don't know/refused 5% And which one do you think is most to blame? Base: 1,218 people who said one or more groups were a great deal to blame The Philadelphia school administration and School Reform Commission 21% Mayor Nutter and the City Council 31% Governor Corbett and the state Legislature 31% The unions representing the teachers and other school employees 11% Don't know/refused 6% 9 How much of a difference will the school crisis make: Do you think...? Families will start leaving the city 23% Families will seek out other education options within the city 48% Won't make much of a difference 20% Both leave and seek other options in city 5% Don't know/refused 4% Have you heard or read anything about charter schools in Philadelphia? Yes 78% No/don't know 22% I'm going to read you two statements about charter schools and would like you to tell me which one you agree with more. Base: 1,281 people who said they were aware of charter schools Charter schools improve education options and help keep middle-class families in the city 64% Charter schools take too much money away from the public schools and lack sufficient oversight 26% Both/can't choose 6% Don't know/refused 4% Thinking about how your own life might unfold over the next five to 10 years, how likely are you to be living in Philadelphia? Do you think you...? Definitely will 29% Probably will 33% Probably will not 21% Definitely will not 15% Don't know/refused 3% 10 Why do you think you will leave the city? Base: 566 people who definitely/probably will not be living in Philadelphia Respondents could give more than one answer Job/career 29% Crime/safety/drugs 25% Schools/child rearing 23% City going downhill/dying/decreasing quality of life 15% Family/friends/personal 12% Prefer suburban lifestyle/tired of living in city 11% Politics and government/taxes/government services/corruption 11% Other 6% Don't know/refused 3% Contact: Larry Eichel, director, Pew Philadelphia program Email: leichel@pewtrusts.org Phone: 215-575-4726 Website: www.pewtrusts.org/philaresearch About The Pew Charitable Trusts: The Pew Charitable Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge to solve today's most challenging problems. Pew applies a rigorous, analytical approach to improve public policy, inform the public, and stimulate civic life. 11 pewtrusts.org Philadelphia Washington TH CHARITABLE TRUSTS