UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 CON F I D E N T I A L PAGE 01 ACTION SS-00 INFO DUBLIN 01675 01 OF 02 141447Z LOG-00 ADS-00 SSO-OO /000 W ------------------ 262257 O 141443Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1785 C O N F I D E N T I A L 141448Z /38 SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 01675 ,d e c a p t i o n e d ] EXDIS ---------- 1 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: OVIP (HAUGHEY, CHARLES J.), El SUBJECT: HAUGHEY VISIT TO U.S. REF: DUBLIN 1517 1. (C-ENTIRE TEXT). - ______________ [RELEASED IN FULLl SETTING 2. THOUGH LACKING A PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY, HAUGHEY ARRIVES IN WASHINGTON IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN IRELAND. AN ELECTION IS UNLIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND HAUGHEY IS TURNING HIS ATTENTION TO HIS FIRST IRISH EC PRESIDENCY DURING WHICH HE HOPES TO TRAVEL TO MOSCOW. THE ONLY CLOUD ON HAUGHEY'S HORIZON IS HIS HEALTH. HE HAS NOT RECOVERED FULLY FROM A SEVERE RESPIRATORY INFECTION LAST FALL AND WILL CONSULT A SPECIALIST DURING HIS WASHINGTON TRIP. THE IRISH AGENDA 3. HAUGHEY HAS THREE PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVES FOR HIS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01675 01 OF 02 141447Z WASHINGTON MEETINGS: BRIEF THE PRESIDENT AND THE SECRETARY ON THE DUBLIN VIEW OF THE NORTHERN IRELAND PROBLEM AND ANGLO- jREVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 Q IRISH RELATIONS. -PUSH THE ADMINISTRATION AND CONGRESS TO GIVE IRELAND PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT UNDER THE '86 TAX ACT. -- BOOST EFFORTS TO REFORM U.S. IMMIGRATION LAW. NORTHERN IRELAND/ANGLO-IRISH RELATIONS 4. IT IS A COMMON BELIEF IN DUBLIN THAT THE STATE DEPARTMENT IS ANGLOPHILE AND HAS LITTLE TIME FOR THE IRISH VIEW OR NORTHERN IRELAND. THERE IS A FEAR THE NEW ADMINISTRATION IS SIMILARLY INCLINED. THUS, HAUGHEY SOUGHT AN EARLY OPPORTUNITY TO OUTLINE IRISH VIEWS TO THE NEW ADMINISTRATION AND TO URGE SYMPATHETIC UNDERSTANDING. HE WILL INVTE THE PRESIDENT AND, POSSIBLY, THE SECRETARY TO VISIT IRELAND. HOWEVER, HE WILL NOT PUSH FOR ANY ACTION OR STATEMEN) ON OUR PART. HIS MAIN POINTS ARE LIKELY TO BE: GRATITUDE FOR THE U.S. CONTRIBUTION TO THE INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR IRELAND (WE BELIEVE HE WILL LET OTHERS URGE FURTHER U.S. CONTRIBUTION). -- CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT AS THE BEST AVAILABLE WAY CURRENTLY TO DEAL WITH NORTHERN IRELAND. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01675 01 OF 02 141447Z MOVEMENT INTO GREATER ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH IN THE RUN-UP TO 19 92 AS A RESULT OF THE REVIEW OF THE AGREEMENT LIKELY TO BE FINISHED NEXT MONTH. -NEED FOR IMPROVEMENT IN FAIR EMPLOYMENT LEGISLATION NOW BEING DEBATED IN WESTMINSTER. -INSISTENCE THAT RESPECT FOR THE RULE OF LAW MUST BE PARAMOUNT IN THE BATTLE FOR THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF BOTH NATIONALISTS AND LOYALISTS AND, HENCE, IRISH UNWILLINGNESS TO YIELD TO MRS. THATCHER'S PRESSURE ON EXTRADITION AND SECURITY COOPERATION. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 ECONOMIC ISSUES 5. THOUGH HAUGHEY WILL PROBABLY WANT TO DISCUSS US-EC TRADE ISSUES IN GENERAL, AND ADVANCE THE VIEW THAT LRELAND IS AN EXCELLENT LOCATION FOR US. INVESTMENT IN THE EC NOW AND BEYOND 1992, HE HAS TWO SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES WHICH HE WILL RAISE IN SOME DETAIL WITH SECRETARY BRADY AND ON THE HILL AND WILL PROBABLY ALSO MENTION TO THE PRESIDENT AND THE SECRETARY: -- PASSIVE FOREIGN INVESTMENTS (PFIC): THE 1986 TAX REFORM ACT INCREASED TAXES ON U.S. FIRMS WITH FOREIGN SUBSIDIARIES KEEPING LRGE PASSIVE ASSETS ABROAD. THE IRISH BELIEVE THIS WILL REDUCE NEW U.S. INVESTMENT AND FORCE THOSE ALREADY IN IRELAND TO KEEP MORE ASSETS IN CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION SS-00 INFO DUBLIN 01675 02 OF 02 141512Z LOG-00 ADS-00 SSO-OO /000 W ------------------ 264130 O 141443Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1786 C O N F I D E N T I A L 141515Z /38 SECTION 02 OF 02 DUBLIN 01675 EXDIS UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. h -zuiu-u/'yuu Doc No. c u e a s a n Date: u y /u 4 /^ u i^ ] ? 2 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 01359 01 OF 03 011233Z LOG-OO NSCE-00 OMB-01 P-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSAE-00 HA-09 L-03 TRSE-00 PM-10 INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 SNP-01 C-01 T-01 /040 W ------------------ 121725 011511Z /44 R 011219Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 168 6 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L H-01 PA-01 PRS-01 SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 01359 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH POLITICAL SCENE: PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS REF: (A) 88 DUBLIN 5905, 1. THE MEANING OF THE (B) DUBLIN 1246 (C--ENTIRE TEXT.) [RELEASED IN FULL] 2. PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY AND HIS GOVERNING PARTY, FIANNA FAIL, CONTINUE TO RIDE HIGH IN THE POLLS. THE LATEST SURVEY, TAKEN AFTER THE GOVERNMENT'S SUBMISSION OF ITS BUDGET TO PARLIAMENT, CONFIRMED BOTH HAUGHEY'S AND THE PARTY'S CURRENT ASCENDANCY AMONG THE IRISH ELECTORATE (HAUGHEY1S PERSONAL POPULARITY ROSE 5 POINTS TO 67 PERCENT, AND FIANNA FAIL ROSE 3 POINTS TO 54 PERCENT OF POPULAR SUPPORT). THE PRESS ANALYSES OF THE POLLS ATTRIBUTE THIS ENDURING RISE IN SUPPORT TO THE GOVERNMENT'S HANDLING OF THE BUDGET, SPECIFICALLY ITS IMPLEMENTING OF PUBLIC-SPENDING CUTS TO BRING PUBLIC DEBT UNDER CONTROL (SEE REF B ) . THIS ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED, SADLY, BY OUR CONTACTS IN THE OTHER PARTIES WHO COMPLAIN THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS CO-OPTED THEIR POLICIES AND IS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01359 01 OF 03 011233Z UNFAIRLY REAPING ALL THE BENEFITS IN THE PUBLIC EYE. BUT WHAT CAN YOU DO? [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 3. THE OTHER PARTIES CHARGE HAUGHEY WITH POLITICAL OPPORTUNISM, NOTING THAT FIANNA FAIL'S CONVERSION TO THE NEED FOR FISCAL RETRENCHMENT CAME AFTER THE LAST GENERAL ELECTIONS. THEY ARGUE THAT, CONSEQUENTLY, THE GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT TO THESE POLICIES IS POLL-DEEP AND A REVERSION TO THE DANGEROUS DAYS OF BORROWING-AND-SPENDING IS BUT A U-TURN AWAY (EVOKING THE NUMEROUS U-TURNS IN HAUGHEY'S CAREER). BUT NONE OF THE OTHER PARTIES HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVISE A STRATEGY TO GET THESE POINTS ACROSS TO THE PUBLIC IN A CONVINCING MANNER. NOR HAVE THE OTHER PARTIES BEEN ABLE TO DEVISE TACTICS OF EFFECTIVE OPPOSITION TO THE GOVERNMENT IN PARLIAMENT. BOTH FINE GAEL AND THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS ARE LOCKED INTO FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY BY THEIR OWN PARTY POLICIES. AND ON OTHER ISSUES, EITHER ADROIT PARLIAMENTARY MANEUVERING OR THE THREAT BY HAUGHEY TO MAKE THE VOTE A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE HAS SWUNG ONE OR THE OTHER OF THE OPPOSITION PARTIES BEHIND HIS MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN ONE PARLIAMENTARY VOTE AFTER ANOTHER. 4. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT NONE OF THE MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTIES WANT A GENERAL ELECTION, BOTH BECAUSE OF THEIR CONTINUING WEAKNESS IN THE POLLS AND BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF AN ISSUE JUSTIFYING ABANDONMENT OF A GOVERNMENT PUBLICLY PERCEIVED AS SUCCESSFUL. THOUGH THERE IS EXTENSIVE AND CONTINUING PRESS COVERAGE OF THE DOWNSIDE OF THE PUBLIC SPENDING CUTS, PARTICULARLY IN HEALTH SERVICES, FAR MORE IRISH WERE CONCERNED ABOUT THE PRICE RISES IN THE NEW BUDGET FOR GASOLINE AND CIGARETTES CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01359 01 OF 03 011233Z (23 PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED) THAN ABOUT HEALTH CUTS (2 PERCENT). AND WITH MOST IRISH AGREEING WITH HAUGHEY'S INTENTIONS TO MOVE TO TAX CUTS AS THE NEXT STEP, NO ONE IS PREDICTING THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S HANDLING OF THE BUDGET WILL, IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, MOVE IN THE PUBLIC EYE FROM THE POSITIVE TO THE NEGATIVE. 5. THE PALPABLE SENSE OF FRUSTRATION THIS ELECTORAL IMPOTENCE HAS INDUCED IN THE OPPOSITION WAS EVIDENT IN THE CALL BY A PROMINENT FINE GAEL BACKBENCHER FOR FINE GAEL TO ABANDON ITS COMMITMENT TO SUPPORT RESPONSIBLE FISCAL RETRENCHMENT MEASURES BY THE GOVERNMENT (THE SOCALLED "TALLAGHT STRATEGY") AND TO DO WHATEVER WAS NECESSARY TO BRING THE HAUGHEY GOVERNMENT DOWN. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT, THOUGH FINE GAEL LEADER ALAN DUKES RE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIRMED THE TALLAGHT STRATEGY AND GINNED UP P A R L I AM E N T A R Y PARTY SUPPORT F O R IT AS PARTY POLICY, HE DID NOT DISCIPLINE THE ERRANT BACKBENCHER. THE TRUTH IS THAT TEE BACKBENCHER WAS ONLY EXPRESSING IN PUBLIC WHAT ALL FINE GAEL DEPUTIES ARE FEELING IN PRIVATE. WHITHER THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS? 6. BUT THE PARTY FEELING THE GREATEST CHAGRIN AT PRESENT MUST CERTAINLY BE THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS. THE PARTY WAS FORMED BY DISSIDENT FIANNA FAIL DEPUTIES AND OTHERS, ALL WITH PERSONAL REASONS TO DETEST CHARLES HAUGHEY. AND IT WAS THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS WHO, IN THE 1986-87 PERIOD, FORCED THE RE-WRITING OF THE IRISH POLITICAL AGENDA WITH FISCAL RETRENCHMENT AS ESSENTIAL TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY REPLACING IMPROVEMENT OF THE GENERAL WELFARE AT THE TOP OF THE LIST. THE ELECTORATE REWARDED THEM IN THE MARCH 1987 GENERAL ELECTIONS WITH 14 SEATS, CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 T-01 LOG-00 NSCE-00 OMB-Ol P-02 01359 02 OF 03 INR-07 HA-09 USIE-00 /040 W SS-00 L-03 SP-02 011235Z CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 ?121774 DODE-OO PM-10 C-01 H-01 PA-01 PRS-01 011511Z /44 R 011219Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 168 7 INFO EC COLLECTIVE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 SECTION 02 OF 03 DUBLIN 0 1 3 5 9 C O N F I D E N T I A L MAKING THEM THE ONLY UNDOUBTED SUCCESS STORY OF THE ELECTIONS (FIANNA FAIL FAILED TO CAPTURE ITS ANTICIPATED MAJORITY; FINE GAEL SUFFERED ITS WORST SHOWING IN THIRTY YEARS; AND LABOUR SLIPPED TO FOURTH PLACE, WITH LEADER DICK SPRING HOLDING ONTO HIS SEAT BY ONLY FOUR VOTES) . 7. AND NOW THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS MUST ENDURE THE SIGHT OF A FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT, WHOSE POPULIST SPENDING POLICIES IN THE 1970S AND EARLY 80S WERE SO LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NEAR-BANKRUPTCY OF THE IRISH GOVERNMENT, RISING EVER HIGHER IN PUBLIC SUPPORT THROUGH IMPLEMENTING THE VERY POLICIES THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS FIRST URGED. AND, WORSE EVEN THAN THE THOUGHT THAT THE FIANNA FAIL SUCCESS IS BASED ON THE SORT OF POLITICAL OPPORTUNISM WHICH LED THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT FOUNDERS TO DETEST HAUGHEY, IS THE REALITY THAT FIANNA FAIL'S POPULAR SUCCESS HAS BEEN LARGELY AT THEIR EXPENSE. OF FIANNA FAIL'S 10 PERCENT RISE IN POPULAR SUPPORT OVER THE LAST TWELVE MONTHS, SIX PERCENT HAS BEEN GAINED AT THE EXPENSE OF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS. IN ALL, THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS HAVE FALLEN FROM 14 TO 8 PERCENT. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01359 02 OF 03 011235Z 8. THE POLITICAL PUNDITS ARE ALREADY GATHERING AT THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS' GRAVE. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT ONLY 5 OUT OF THE 14 PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS PARLIAMENTARY DEPUTIES (THOSE WITH STRONG NAMEIDENTIFICATION AND EQUALLY STRONG LOCAL MACHINES) WILL SURVIVE THE NEXT ELECTIONS. RUMORS ARE RIFE CONCERNING THE INTENTIONS OF THOSE CONSIDERED AT RISK, WITH A NUMBER RUMORED ALREADY ANGLING TO MOVE TO FINE GAEL. THE RUMOR HAS THE VIRTUE OF PLAUSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH THE PARTY WAS FOUNDED BY DISSIDENT FIANNA FAIL DEPUTIES, ITS ELECTORAL GAINS CAME AT THE EXPENSE OF FINE GAEL WITH ALL BUT ONE OF ITS NEWLY-ELECTED DEPUTIES SUCCESSFULLY CHALLENGING IN TRADITIONAL FINE GAEL MIDDLE-CLASS CONSTITUENCIES. LENDING ADDITIONAL CREDENCE TO SUCH RUMORS IS THE PROPOSAL THIS WEEK BY PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT LEADER, DES O'MALLEY, OF AN ELECTORAL PACT WITH FINE GAEL. HOWEVER, THOUGH IMMEDIATELY LABELLED A DESPERATION MOVE TO STAVE OFF EXTINCTION, THE PROPOSAL HAS NOT BEEN DISMISSED OUT-OF-HAND BY THE FINE GAEL LEADERSHIP. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2D10-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS 9. STILL, MOST OBSERVERS EXPECT THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS TO GO THE WAY OF EARLIER FOURTH PARTIES IN IRISH POLITICAL LIFE. FIANNA FAIL, FINE GAEL, AND LABOUR HAVE DOMINATED THE IRISH POLITICAL SCENE SINCE INDEPENDENCE. FOURTH PARTIES--NEARLY ALL FORMED AS DISSIDENT SPLINTERS FROM ONE OF THE BIG THREE-- HAVE NEVER ENJOYED MORE THAN ONE GENERAL ELECTION SUCCESS. WHILE POLITICAL ANALYSTS HAVE LONG STRUGGLED (AND FAILED) TO EXPLAIN THE HOLD OF THE BIG THREE ON THE IRISH ELECTORATE, THEY ARE CERTAIN THAT THAT STRANGLEHOLD EXCLUDES LONG LIFE FOR NEW PARTIES. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01359 02 OF 03 011235Z AND THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS DO EXPIRE, DOES THIS SIMPLY MEAN THAT THEIR VOTERS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR TRADITIONAL LOYALTIES? OR DOES IT MEAN THAT ON THE IRISH POLITICAL SPECTRUM (A NARROW CONSERVATIVE BAND ESSENTIALLY LACKING A VITAL LEFT WING AND EXTENDING FROM SLIGHTLY LEFT-OF-CENTER TO THE NATIONALIST RIGHT), THERE IS NO ROOM BETWEEN TECHNOCRATIC FINE GAEL AND POPULIST FIANNA FAIL? 10. IT MAY BE THAT THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS ARE THE ARCHITECT OF THEIR OWN DEMISE. FINE GAEL WAS, TRADITIONALLY, CORPORATIST IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICY AND ALWAYS READY TO PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE CHURCH CARD. IT MOVED, UNDER GARRET FITZGERALD IN THE LATE 1970S AND 80S, TO NEARLY SOCIAL-DEMOCRATIC, INCREASINGLY MODERNIST AND EUROPEAN IN ITS OUTLOOK. THIS WAS A WINNING EVOLUTION WHEN ONLY FIANNA FAIL WITH ITS CENTRIST TENDENCIES STOOD TO FINE GAEL'S RIGHT AND WHEN BOTH THE TWO LARGEST PARTIES PRACTICED THE POLITICS OF "WELFARISM." BUT PUBLIC-SPENDING IMBALANCES AND A BADLY SKEWED TAX STRUCTURE PENALIZING THE PROFESSIONAL AND ENTREPRENEURIAL CLASSES CREATED A POLITICAL NICHE WHICH THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS FILLED. OUTFLANKED BY THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS IN THEIR PATENT APPEAL TO MIDDLECLASS INTERESTS, FINE GAEL HAS NOW SHIFTED BACK RIGHTWARDS WITH A CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC TENDENCY CHALLENGING THE LEADERSHIP. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT THE FINE GAEL YOUTH WING, A FORCING-GROUND FOR NEW IDEAS UNDER GARRET FITZGERALD, OPTED AT THEIR RECENT UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 T-01 LOG-OO NSCE-00 OMB-01 P-02 01359 03 OF 03 INR-0 7 HA-0 9 USIE-00 /040 W SS-00 L-03 SP-02 011234Z CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 ?121726 DODE-OO PM-10 C-01 H-01 PA-01 PRS-01 011511Z /44 R 011219Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1688 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 DUBLIN 01359 ANNUAL CONFERENCE TO RETAIN THEIR EUROPEAN AFFILIATION TO THE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS RATHER THAN TO SEEK A "MORE PROGRESSIVE" AFFILIATION. AFTER DECADES OF WORKING ITSELF OUT OF THE SOCIALLY-CONSERVATIVE EMBRACE OF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH, FINE GAEL FINDS ITSELF PULLED BACK BY FISCAL CONSERVATISM. 11. AS NO ONE IS SERIOUSLY PREDICTING AN ELECTION SOON (OUR SENIOR FIANNA FAIL SOURCES TELL US NOT UNTIL FALL 1990, AFTER THE IRISH TERM IN THE EC PRESIDENCY), IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT IF THE CURRENT PATTERNS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT WILL HOLD. WE COULD LOOK TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN JUNE FOR SOME INDICATIONS OF UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 THE FUTURE OF THE PARTIES, EXCEPT THAT ALL OF THEM HAVE OPTED FOR BIG-NAME CANDIDATES WHOSE PARTY-AFFILIATION WILL BE LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN THEIR OWN WELL-KNOWN PERSONALITIES. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS CLEAR THAT, EVEN IF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS AT THE END OF THE DAY DO NOT PROVE TO HAVE FULFILLED THEIR STATED INTENTION "TO BREAK THE MOLD" OF IRISH POLITICS, THEY DID SUCCEED IN FORCING THE IRISH BODY POLITIC TO FACE UP TO ITS FISCAL RESPONSIBILITIES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01359 03 OF 03 011234Z HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686371 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 j g CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 T-01 LOG-OO NSCE-00 OMB-Ol P-02 01517 01 OF 03 INR-0 7 HA-0 9 USIE-00 /040 W 071721Z SS-00 L-03 SP-02 CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 -275531 DODE-OO PM-10 C-01 H-01 PA-01 PRS-01 090037Z /63 R 071656Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1741 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 01517 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE HAUGHEY GOVERNMENT: THE SECOND ANNIVERSARY REF: 1. (A) (C) (E) (G) 88 DUBLIN 4252, BB DUBLIN 5905, 88 DUBLIN 6412, DUBLIN 1359 (B) 88 DUBLIN 4985, (D) 88 DUBLIN 6324, (F) DUBLIN 1246, , _____________ , _ [RELEASED IN f u l l ] (C-ENTIRE TEXT). 2. THE FIANNA FAIL ANNUAL CONFERENCE, HELD THE WEEKEND OF 24-26 FEBRUARY, WAS A CELEBRATION OF TWO YEARS IN POWER. THE RESOLUTION HOLDING PRIDE OF PLACE CALLED ON THE CONFERENCE "TO CONGRATULATE THE TAOISEACH (THE IRISH FOR CHIEF OF GOVERNMENT), CHARLES J. HAUGHEY, ON HIS GREAT LEADERSHIP OF OUR COUNTRY AND PARTY." NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT PASSED WITH ROARS OF APPROVAL. IN TRUTH, CHARLES HAUGHEY AND HIS PARTY HAVE GOOD REASONS TO FEEL EXUBERANT. THEIR DOMINATION OF THE IRISH PARLIAMENT IS SUCH (SEE REF G) THAT THERE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01517 01 OF 03 071721Z IS NO THREAT ON THE PERCEIVABLE HORIZON TO THEIR REMAINING IN POWER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF 1990 (OR EVEN LONGER IF HAUGHEY SO DECIDES). THE ECONOMY IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THEIR PROGRAM FOR NATIONAL REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Revlewerj UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 3 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State RECOVERY, CENTERED ON B R I N G I N G INTO BALANCE. AND A SERIES OF H A L F - Y E A R INDICATE A D E E PENING Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 N A T I ONAL FINANCES BACK POLLS O V E R THE LAST AND WI D E N I N G PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR BOTH FIANNA FAIL AND ITS CHIEF. INDEED, SUCH IS THEIR CURRENT RUN OF GOOD FORTUNE THAT THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE WAS GREETED BY THE MILDEST IRISH WINTER ON RECORD. THIS HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE TURN OF EVENTS FOR A MINORITY GOVERNMENT WHICH SCRAPED INTO POWER IN MARCH 1987 ON THE CASTING VOTE OF THE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT. FISCAL RESPONSIBLITY THE KEY 3. THE BASIC DOCUMENT OF THE FIANNA FAIL'S ECONOMIC POLICY FOR THE PAST 18 MONTHS HAS BEEN THE PROGRAM FOR NATIONAL RECOVERY (PNR), A THREE YEAR PACT CONCLUDED IN OCTOBER 1987. IT WAS THE RESULT OF NEGOTIATIONS INVOLVING THE GOVERNMENT, LABOR AND EMPLOYERS, AND FARMERS. THE PNR SET TARGETS IN KEY ECONOMIC AREAS SUCH AS IRELAND'S ECONOMIC INTEREST IN THE EEC, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, TAX REFORM, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, EMPLOYMENT CREATION, AND LABOR LEGISLATION. BY FAR THE MOST WELL KNOWN PROVISIONS WERE THOSE DEALING WITH REDUCTION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S EXCHEQUER BORROWING REQUIREMENT TO A RANGE OF 5 - 7 PERCENT OF GNP AND STABILIZATION OF THE NATIONAL DEBT (THEN NEARLY 140 PERCENT OF GNP). OTHER KEY TARGETS WERE THE ANNUAL CREATION OF 20,000 NEW JOBS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01517 01 OF 03 071721Z TWO-THIRDS OF TAXPAYERS INTO THE STANDARD RATE BRACKET OF 35 PERCENT. 4. THE GOVERNMENT'S PROGRAM TO ACHIEVE ITS ECONOMIC GOALS HAS SUCCEEDED MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED. THE MAIN OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE LENT FULL SUPPORT TO AUSTERITY BUDGETS IN 1987 AND 1988 WHICH REDUCED EXCHEQUER BORROWING REQUIREMENTS FROM 13.2 PERCENT OF GNP IN 1986, TO 10 PERCENT OF GNP IN 1987 AND JUST 3.3 PERCENT IN 1988. AS A RESULT, IRISH INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION HAVE FALLEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND ARE NOW AMONG THE LOWEST IN THE COMMUNITY. EXPORTS GREW RAPIDLY IN 1987 AND 1988, YIELDING SIZEABLE TRADE AND CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES. EVEN DOMESTIC DEMAND RESPONDED TO THE GOVERNMENT'S ECONOMIC MEDICINE, UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 INCREASING IN 1988 FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN THIS DECADE. UNEMPLOYMENT HAS BEEN THE ONE REALLY QUESTIONABLE AREA OF THE ECONOMY'S PERFORMANCE, DECLINING SLIGHTLY IN 1988 TO JUST UNDER 18 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY FOR THE GOVERNMENT, EMIGRATION OF OVER 30,000 IN 1988 RELIEVED MUCH OF THE PRESSURE WHICH LARGE NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE ENTERING THE WORK FORCE WOULD HAVE PUT ON THE ALREADY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES. 5. THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG ECONOMISTS AND THE ELECTORATE THAT IRELAND HAS TURNED THE CORNER. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN ALMOST ALL ECONOMIC INDICATORS HAVE CREATED AN OPTIMISTIC MOOD, ONE WHICH IS A STRIKING CONTRAST TO THE GLOOM WHICH PREVAILED ONLY A YEAR OR SO AGO. WHILE THE ECONOMY IS STILL VULNERABLE TO RISING WORLD INTEREST RATES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RECESSION IN ITS MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, THE OUTLOOK FOR 198 9 IS GOOD. CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 T-01 LOG-OO NSCE-00 OMB-01 P-02 01517 02 OF 03 INR-0 7 HA-0 9 USIE-00 /040 W SS-00 L-03 SP-02 071722Z CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 -275535 DODE-OO PM-10 C-01 H-01 PA-01 PRS-01 090037Z /63 R 071656Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1742 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UN C LAS S IFIED U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17656372 Date: 09/04/2012 SECTION 02 OF 03 DUBLIN 0 1 5 1 7 CONF I DE NT I AL LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST THE OPPOSITION IN DISARRAY 6. THE RESULT FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTIES HAS BEEN DISARRAY. THE TWO MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTIES -- FINE GAEL AND THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS -- CAN FIND NO LEVERAGE TO ATTACK THE GOVERNMENT'S PROGRAM. THEIR VARIOUS POINTS OF DIFFERENCE ARE MARGINAL AT BEST, REDUCING THEIR OPPOSITION TO LITTLE MORE THAN CLAIMS THAT THEY COULD DO THE WHOLE THING BETTER. THE CURRENT IMPOTENCE OF FINE GAEL, IN PARTICULAR, WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY A RECENT INTERNAL PARTY STUDY SHOWING THAT IN VIRTUALLY EVERY POLL CATEGORY FIANNA FAIL HAS TWICE AS MUCH DECLARED SUPPORT IRRESPECTIVE OF GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION, AGE, MARITAL STATUS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPING OR SEX. FINE GAEL, IN SHORT, IS IN ITS WORST SHAPE IN THIRTY YEARS. THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS SEEM LITTLE BETTER OFF, WITH BOTH THE POLLS AND THE PUNDITS PREDICTING THEIR DEMISE. 6A. WHAT COMPLICATES THE PICTURE EVEN FURTHER IS THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01517 02 OF 03 071722Z BITTER ENMITY OF FINE GAEL FOR THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS. ALTHOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS HAVE TRIED TO PATCH THINGS UP RECENTLY, FINE GAEL LEADER DUKES TOLD THE AMBASSADOR HE HAS NO INTENTION OF THROWING A LIFE-LINE TO THE FALTERING PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS WHO HE EXPECTS TO SELF-DESTRUCT AT THE NEXT ELECTION. 7. THE ONLY REAL OPPOSITION TO HAUGHEY'S GOVERNMENT COMES FROM THE LEFT. BUT THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE THE LABOUR PARTY WHICH IS SUFFERING AN IDENTITY CRISIS OF ITS OWN. TO SHORE UP PARTY SUPPORT FOR HIS LEADERSHIP AGAINST A LEFTIST CHALLENGE, DICK SPRING HAS REACHED TO THE NATIONALIST ROOTS OF THE PARTY IN A SERIES OF PARLIAMENTARY ACTIONS WHICH EVEN EVOKED THE ADMIRATION OF HAUGHEY. RATHER, THE OPPOSITION COMES FROM THE WORKERS' PARTY AND A COUPLE OF INDEPENDENT DEPUTIES. THEY CHALLENGE NOT ONLY THE SPENDING CUTS IN PUBLIC SERVICES BUT FIANNA FAIL'S TRADITIONAL METHOD OF OPERATING WITH "A NOD AND A WINK." THEY ARE SEEKING TO FORM A COALITION OF THE LEFT UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UNITING THEM WITH ELEMENTS IN THE CHURCH AND VOLUNTARY ORGANIZ A T I O N S L O B B Y I N G FO R G R E A T E R STATE AI D TO SOCIAL SERVICES. THOUGH THEY RECEIVE A GREAT DEAL OF SYMPATHETIC PRESS COVERAGE (INDEED, THE FOUR WORKERS' PARTY DEPUTIES ARE FAR ECLIPSED IN INFLUENCE BY PARTY MEMBERS HOLDING KEY POSITIONS IN IRISH RADIO AND TELEVISION), THEY ARE UP AGAINST THE LONG-STANDING REALITY THAT NEARLY 90 PERCENT OF THE IRISH ELECTORATE IDENTIFY WITH PARTIES OF THE RIGHT. 8. IT IS NOT THAT HAUGHEY IS WITHOUT PROBLEMS. A NUMBER HAVE CROPPED UP RECENTLY INCLUDING SERIOUS CONFLICT OF INTEREST CHARGES AGAINST AGRICULTURE MINISTER MICHAEL O'KENNEDY FOR HIS INVOLVEMENT IN THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01517 02 OF 03 071722Z CLOSING OF A SUGAR FACTORY. BUT, FEW OBSERVERS EXPECT HAUGHEY TO SEIZE ON THIS OR ANY CURRENT ECONOMIC ISSUE TO GO TO THE POLLS. NORTHERN IRELAND 9. OF MORE GENUINE CONCERN TO HAUGHEY ARE THE ACCUSATIONS WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY THAT HE HAS BETRAYED THE PARTY'S REPUBLICAN ETHOS BY HIS U-TURN FROM CONDEMNATION OF THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT WHILE IN OPPOSITION TO COMMITMENT TO IT WHEN COMING INTO POWER (SEE REF E ) . THOUGH TROUBLESOME, THE "REBELLION" WHICH CENTERS ON THE EMOTIONAL EXTRADITION ISSUE HAS BEEN CONTAINED. FIANNA FAIL IS A GRASS-ROOTS PARTY, ORGANIZED IN THOUSANDS OF LOCAL CLUBS, DRAWING SUPPORT NEARLY EQUALLY (AT THE NEAR 50 PERCENT MARK) FROM ALL SEGMENTS OF IRISH SOCIETY, AND EVOKING A NEARLY TRIBAL LOYALTY. NOTES OF DISSENT WERE NOTICEABLE BY THEIR ABSENCES AT THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE. AND THE ATTEMPT BY TWO YOUNG MEN TO MOUNT AN ANTI-EXTRADITION PROTEST DURING HAUGHEYS PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS WAS DROWNED OUT BY THE THOUSANDS OF DELEGATES RISING TO THEIR FEET IN CHEERS AND APPLAUSE WHILE THE PROTESTERS WERE MAN-HANDLED OUT OF THE HALL. 10. IN HIS ADDRESS, HAUGHEY RETURNED TO HIS ALMOST MESSIANIC DESIRE TO BRING THE UNIONISTS TO THE CONFERENCE TABLE. HE REPEATED HIS OPEN INVITATION TO TALK. BUT, UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 01517 03 OF 03 071723Z LOG-OO NSCE-00 OMB-01 P-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSAE-00 HA-09 L-03 TRSE-00 PM-10 INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 SNP-01 C-01 T-01 /040 W ------------------ 275536 090058Z /63 R 071656Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1743 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON C O N F I D E N T I A L H-01 PA-01 PRS-01 SECTION 03 OF 03 DUBLIN 01517 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST WHILE HIS RECOGNITION OF THEIR TRADITION AND THEIR RIGHTS AS IRISHMEN WAS ELOQUENT, HIS SEEMING LAYING OF MORAL BLAME ON THE UNIONISTS SHOULD THEY REFUSE TO TALK WAS PERPLEXING. THE UNIONISTS HAVE ALREADY SEIZED ON THAT AND HAUGHEY'S REFUSAL TO COUNTENANCE A SUSPENSION OF THE AGREEMENT TO REJECT WHAT THE REV. IAN PAISLEY, IN HIS USUAL EXUBERANT RHETORIC, TERMED THE "MAILED FIST OF DUBLIN." MORE PROMISING, BECAUSE MORE PRACTICAL TO ACHIEVE, WAS HAUGHEY'S PROPOSAL THAT, WITH 1992 APPROACHING, POLITICAL LEADERS FROM THE NORTH SHOULD ENTER A DIALOGUE WITH HIM TO WORK OUT UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. h-2010-07900 uoc No. C l 7686372 Date: Uy/U4/2U12 A COMMON APPROACH TO THE ECONOMIC CHALLENGE FACING THE ISLAND AS A WHOLE. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT HAS CLEARLY BECOME THE GOVERNMENT'S APPROACH TO THE NORTHERN PROBLEM - A PERSISTENT WORKING OF THE AGREEMENT TO ACHIEVE PRACTICAL PROGRESS COMBINED WITH AN OPEN DOOR TO THE UNIONISTS TO DEAL DIRECTLY WITH DUBLIN, AND BOTH WITH A VIEW TO THE LONG HAUL. THE STATESMAN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01517 03 OF 03 071723Z 11. SUCH HAS BEEN HAUGHEY'S PERFORMANCE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS, THAT EVEN HIS OPPONENTS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEAK OF HIM IN NEW, ADMIRING TERMS. HIS HANDLING OF THE ROW WITH PRIME MINISTER THATCHER OVER THE FATHER RYAN EXTRADITION CASE - THE VERY MODEL OF MODERATION WITH FIRMNESS - BROUGHT HAUGHEY BIPARTISAN PRAISE. GONE ARE THE SHARP EDGES, AS REMARKABLY REVEALED IN HIS PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS, THE MEASURED, STATESMANLIKE TONES OF WHICH WERE IN STRONG CONTRAST TO THE STRIDENTLY PARTISAN SPEECH OF FINE GAEL LEADER ALAN DUKES AT HIS PARTY CONFERENCE (SEE REF D ) . SOME ARE SUGGESTING THAT HIS SERIOUS ILLNESS LAST FALL -- FROM WHICH HE HAS STILL NOT FULLY RECOVERED BROUGHT HOME TO HAUGHEY THAT THIS MAY BE HIS LAST CHANCE TO MAKE HIS PLACE IN IRISH HISTORY AND THAT HE HAS DETERMINED TO RISE ABOVE HIS HITHERTO DOMINANT IMAGE AS THE ULTIMATE POLITICAL BOSS. WHATEVER MAY BE THE REASON, HAUGHEY IS NOW CLEARLY DECIDED TO SEEK SOLUTIONS NOT CONFRONTATION. 12. THIS CABLE IS SUBMITTED IN FULFILLMENT OF THE POST REPORTING PLAN. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UN C LAS S IFIED U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-0/9UU Uoc No. u i /b O b J /^ uaie: ua/u^t/zu iz CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686372 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 E.O. 12356: DECL : O A D R TAGS: OVIP (HAUGHEY, CHARLES J .), El SUBJECT: HAUGHEY VISIT TO U.S. THE U.S. HAUGHEY WILL URGE SUPPORT FOR THE COYNE AMENDMENT WHICH EXCLUDES FIRMS IN COUNTRIES WITH WHICH THE U.S. HAS A TRADE SURPLUS. -SUPER ROYALTIES: THE 198 6 ACT ALSO MANDATED TIGHTER RULES ON PAYMENTS FROM U.S. SUBSIDIARIES ABROAD TO THEIR PARENT FIRMS FOR INTANGIBLE ASSETS. PROPOSED TREASURY SALES WOULD HURT IRISH EFFORTS TO ATTRACT U.S. INVESTMENT AND REDUCE THE PROFITABILITY OF EXISTING FIRMS. HAUGHEY WILL SEEK RECOGNITION OF THE PROBLEM THIS POSES FOR IRELAND, AND A POLITICAL COMMITMENT TO ADDRESS IT. IMMIGRATION 6. THIS WILL BE A PRINCIPAL FOCUS OF HIS STRATEGY SESSIONS WITH JIM WRIGHT, TED KENNEDY, TOM FOLEY AND OTHER FRIENDS OF IRELAND ON THE HILL. EMIGRATION REMAINS AN EMOTIONAL AND VOLATILE POLITICAL ISSUE HERE AND HAUGHEY MUST BE SEEN TO BE PRODUCING RESULTS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01675 02 OF 02 141512Z HE RECOGNIZES THAT AMNESTY FOR UNDOCUMENTED IRISH IN THE STATES IS NOT ON AND IS UNLIKELY TO RAISE IT. SIMILARLY, HE REALIZES THE ACTION IS ON THE HILL. WITH THE PRESIDENT AND SECRETARY HE WILL PROBABLY ONLY MENTION HIS EFFORTS WITH THE CONGRESS AND ASK FOR A SYMPATHETIC ADMINISTRATION VIEW OF THESE EFFORTS. OTHER ISSUES 7. UNIFIL: THE IRISH ARE CONCERNED THAT THE DECISION TO DELAY PAYMENT OF OUR ARREARS TO THE UNIFIL OPERATION SIGNALS A WEAKENING OF U.S. SUPPORT FOR UNIFIL. AS THE LARGEST IRISH PEACE KEEPING OPERATION AND ONE WHICH HAS PRODUCED 27 IRISH DEATHS, UNIFIL IS A POLITICALLY SENSITIVE ISSUE. THE FOREIGN MINISTRY HAS URGED HAUGHEY TO RAISE THE ARREARS ISSUE AND WE BELIEVE HE WILL DO SO WITH THE SECRETARY. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 EAST-WEST RELATIONS: WITH AN EYE TO HIS ROLE IN THE UPCOMING EC PRESIDENCY, HAUGHEY WILL W A N T OUR ANALYSIS OF THE PROSPECTS FOR ARMS CONTROL AND FOR GORBACHEV'S REFORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOTHING OFFICIAL YET, WE BELIEVE HAUGHEY HOPES TO BE THE FIRST EVER IRISH PM TO VISIT MOSCOW. MIDDLE EAST: THE IRISH ARE LOOKINGNVAJORWARD TO GREATER ACTIVISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN THEIR EC PRESIDENCY ROLE. THE LACK OF AN ISRAELI EMBASSY HERE (AGAIN PUT OFF BECAUSE OF THE KILLING OF A IRISH UNIFIL SOLDIER LAST MONTH) IS SYMPTOMATIC OF THE GENERALLY PRO-ARAB, PROPALESTINIAN APPROACH THE IRISH WILL BRING TO THEIR PRESIDENCY. HAUGHEY WILL PROBABLY NOT RAISE THIS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01675 02 OF 02 141512Z BUT EXPECTS, AT A MINIMUM, WE WILL RAISE OUR CONCERNS ABOUT LIBYAN-IRISH RELATIONS. CURRAN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686370 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. h-^UIU-U/'UUU Doc No. u i /'bSbJ/' 3 uaie: ua/u 4/^u i ^ p1 . C O NF ID E N T I A L PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO PARIS 39417 01 OF 02 131745Z LOG-00 NSCE-00 CEA-01 OES-09 ADS-00 AID-00 INR-05 SS-00 CIAE-00 NSAE-00 COME-OO LAB-04 CTME-00 TRSE-00 DOTE-OO OMB-Ol STR-18 INM-08 INRE-00 JUSE-00 DEAE-00 SP-02 CEQ-01 E-01 ------------------ 170711 161113Z /24 R 131742Z DEC 89 FM AMEMBASSY PARIS TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7364 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L EB-00 EPA-01 FRB-03 /054 W SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 39417 BRUSSELS FOR USEC [r e l e a s e d i n f u l l ] E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR TAGS: PREL, EEC, ECON, ECIN, ENVR, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH AT STRASBOURG: A PREVIEW OF THE IRISH EC PRESIDENCY THE FOLLOWING WAS DRAFTED BY USEC. 1. SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: IRISH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY, WHOSE GOVERNMENT TAKES OVER THE EC PRESIDENCY ON JANUARY 1, PROVIDED SOME EARLY VIEWS ON IRISH GOALS FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTH EC PRESIDENCY. ACCORDING HAUGHEY, THE IRISH WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT THEIR TOP PRIORITY, FOLLOWED BY PROGRESS TOWARD ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION, LIBERALIZATION OF TRANSPORT POLICES, DRUGS AND IMMIGRATION, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SOCIAL CHARTER. THE IRISH MAY PUSH, WITH HELP FROM OTHER LESS PROSPEROUS MEMBER STATES, FOR GREATER COMMUNITY FUNDS FOR UNDERDEVELOPED REGIONS OF THE EC. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. IRISH PRESIDENCY GOALS FOR THE COMMUNITY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 PARIS 39417 01 OF 02 131745Z 2. WE WERE PRIVY TO TWO SEMI-CLOSED BRIEFINGS (LIMITED MAINLY TO THE IRISH PRESS) WHICH PRIME MINISTER CHARLES REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer| UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-O/auu Doc No. u i /rbbb3/'3 uate: uy/iw /^u i z HAUGHEY GAVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DECEMBER 8-9 EC SUMMIT IN STRASBOURG. HAUGHEY, WHO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY IRISH FOREIGN MINISTER GERARD COLLINS, LAID OUT IN PRIORITY ORDER THE FOLLOWING OBJECTIVES FOR THE UPCOMING IRISH EC PRESIDENCY: (1) THE ENVIRONMENT THE IRISH HAVE PICKED UP ON INCREASING MEMBER STATE WORRIES ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL DETERIORATION. HAUGHEY SAID THAT HE HOPED FOR A SOLEMN DECLARATION BY THE TWELVE ON THE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WOULD BE SIGNED AT THE DUBLIN SUMMIT NEXT JUNE. THE DECLARATION, IN HIS VIEW, WOULD BE A COMPOSITE DOCUMENT OPEN TO THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF ALL MEMBER STATES. THE COMMUNITY SHOULD IN GENERAL PLAY A MORE ACTIVE ROLE AT INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONFERENCES. HE SUGGESTED THAT THERE ARE NOT YET ENOUGH COMMITTEES AND GROUPS ENGAGED ON ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION; NUCLEAR WASTE IS ONE PROBLEM BUT THERE ARE OTHER "MORE MUNDANE AND PRACTICAL" CHALLENGES WHICH MUST BE ADDRESSED. HAUGHEY SAID HE STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE CREATION OF AN EC ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY, NOTING THAT 28 LOCALITIES (INCLUDING ONE IN IRELAND) HAVE ALREADY OFFERED TO HOST THE AGENCY. (2) ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION (EMU) HAUGHEY APPLAUDED THE DOMINANT THEME OF THE STRASBOURG SUMMIT -- AGREEMENT OF THE TWELVE GOVERNMENTS TO CONVOKE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 PARIS 39417 01 OF 02 131745Z AN INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE (IGC) AT THE END OF 1990 ON REVISING THE EC TREATIES TO ACCOMMODATE EMU. HE SAID THAT THE EC COMMISSION WILL ISSUE, BY APRIL 1, 1990, A MAJOR STUDY OF EMU WHICH FOCUSES ON THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF EMU AND PRESENTS QUESTIONS FOR RESOLUTION BY THE CONFERENCE. HE IMPLIED THAT THE IRISH PRESIDENCY WOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TO OFFER ON ITS OWN, PRIOR TO THE COMMISSION PAPER, ON MOVEMENT TOWARD EMU. ONCE THE PAPER HAS BEEN ISSUED, HE SAID, IRELAND WILL DO WHATEVER IT CAN TO SUPPORT THE PROPOSED IGC. (3) TRANSPORT POLICY THIS ISSUE BEARS ON THE SINGLE MARKET, AS WELL IMPROVED COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE, AND WAS DISCUSSED AMONG HEADS UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 U N U L A S S IH L U U .S . D e p a r tm e n t oT S ta te u a s e imo \-u -^ iu - u /s u u u o c in o. u i / o o d j / j OF GOVERNMENT ON DECEMBER 8. HAUGHEY SAID THAT IRELAND WOULD PROMOTE LIBERALIZATION OF AIR AND SEA TRANSPORT POLICIES. FRENCH SOURCES REPORTED THAT IN THE COURSE OF SUMMIT SINGLE MARKET DISCUSSIONS, HAUGHEY HAD ARGUED FOR MORE COMMUNITY FUNDING FOR ROADS AND COMMUNICATIONS IN MEMBER STATES LOCATED ON THE GEOGRAPHIC PERIPHERY OF THE EC. (4) uaxe: u a / u ^ / z u u DRUGS/IMMIGRATION THESE TWO SUBJECTS ARE TIED IN WITH THE ABOLITION OF INTERNAL FRONTIERS AMONG EC MEMBER STATES AS PART OF THE 1992 SINGLE MARKET PROGRAM. BOTH ISSUES WERE ADDRESSED CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 PARIS 39417 02 OF 02 131747Z CIAE-00 ADS-00 AID-00 INR-05 SS-00 NSAE-00 COME-OO LAB-04 CTME-00 TRSE-00 DOTE-00 OMB-01 STR-18 INM-08 INRE-00 JUSE-00 DEAE-00 SP-02 CEQ-01 E-01 ------------------ 170720 161113Z /24 R 131742Z DEC 89 FM AMEMBASSY PARIS TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7365 INFO EC COLLECTIVE INFO LOG-00 NSCE-00 CEA-01 OES-09 EB-00 EPA-01 FRB-03 /054 W UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 PARIS 39417 BRUSSELS FOR USEC E.O. 12356: DEC L :OADR TAGS:PREL, EEC, E CON, ECIN, ENVR, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH AT STRASBOURG: A PREVIEW OF THE IRISH EC PRESIDENCY BY THE STRASBOURG SUMMIT. FRENCH PRESIDENT MITTERRAND HAD SUCCESSFULLY PROPOSED THE NOMINATION OF NATIONAL NARCOTICS COORDINATORS DURING THE FRENCH EC PRESIDENCY; THEY HELD THEIR FIRST MEETING IN EARLY DECEMBER PRIOR TO THE SUMMIT. POTENTIAL IMMIGRATION DIFFICULTIES WERE BROUGHT UP BY SEVERAL HEADS OF GOVERNMENT DURING THE SUMMIT, IN THE COURSE OF INTERNAL MARKET DISCUSSIONS. (5) THE SOCIAL CHARTER STRASBOURG BROUGHT ADOPTION OF THE EC SOCIAL CHARTER BY ELEVEN MEMBER STATES, WITH ONLY THE UNITED KINGDOM IN OPPOSITION. HAUGHEY SAID THAT THE SOCIAL CHARTER WOULD BE IMPLEMENTED THROUGH AN ACTION PLAN MADE UP OF COMMISSION-PROPOSED DIRECTIVES, SUBJECT TO APPROVAL BY THE EC SOCIAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL UNDER "WEIGHTED-MAJORITY" CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 PARIS 39417 02 OF 02 131747Z VOTING PROCEDURES. HAUGHEY MADE IT CLEAR THAT IRELAND STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE SOCIAL CHARTER, WHICH HE CHARACTERIZED AS A "COMMUNITY DOCUMENT" DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF BRITISH SUPPORT. HE UNDERLINED THE PRINCIPLE OF SUBSIDIARITY IN THE SOCIAL CHARTER, I.E. THAT THE COMMUNITY WILL NOT INTERVENE ON SOCIAL ISSUES WHICH CAN BE WELL-MANAGED BY AUTHORITIES AT THE NATIONAL OR EVEN LOWER LEVEL. HE SAID THE PRINCIPLE IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO IRELAND, GIVEN STRONG IRISH TRADITIONS AND PRACTICES ON COLLECTIVE BARGAINING. (6) EAST-WEST ISSUES HAUGHEY SAID IT WAS NEARLY CERTAIN THAT HE WOULD TRAVEL TO EASTERN EUROPEAN CAPITALS DURING THE IRISH PRESIDENCY. HE COMMENTED ON WIDE AGREEMENT AMONG HEADS OF GOVERNMENT THAT THE GERMAN QUESTION AND EAST-WEST RELATIONS GENERALLY SHOULD BE MANAGED IN THE CSCE FRAMEWORK. HE SPOKE REPEATEDLY OF THE CONCILIATORY UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C ATTITUDE THAT MARKED FRG CHANCELLOR KOHL'S PERFORMANCE DURING SENSITIVE SUMMIT DISCUSSIONS ON GERMAN REUNIFICATION. FOR HIS PART, HAUGHEY SAID THAT REUNIFICATION IS AN ISSUE FOR THE GERMAN PEOPLE TO RESOLVE ON THE BASIS OF SELF-DETERMINATION. l uat e: ua/u 4/^u i a HAUGHEY ALSO TOOK PAINS TO NOTE THAT GERMAN UNIFICATION AND DEEPENING INTEGRATION AMONG THE TWELVE EC MEMBER STATES WERE NOT CONTRADICTORY ENDS. HE POINTED OUT THAT SUMMIT STATEMENT LANGUAGE ON GERMAN UNIFICATION CITED THE "PERSPECTIVE OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION." HEADS OF GOVERNMENT COULD HAVE CITED A "PERSPECTIVE OF EUROPEAN COMMUNITY INTEGRATION," BUT THE EC QUALIFIER WAS DELIBERATELY OMITTED. HAUGHEY, LIKE SEVERAL OTHER HEADS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 PARIS 39417 02 OF 02 131747Z OF GOVERNMENT AT STRASBOURG, EMPHASIZED IN HIS BRIEFINGS THE COHESIVE APPROACH OF EC-12 MEMBER STATES TOWARD EASTERN EUROPE. HE APPLAUDED THE GERMAN DELEGATION'S COMMITMENT TO EC INTEGRATION AS A PROCESS THAT SHOULD NOT BE COMPROMISED WHILE THE TWELVE TAKE NEW INITATIVES TOWARD THE EAST, SUCH AS THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPMENT BANK. WE CAN ASSUME THAT HAUGHEY SHARES THIS ATTITUDE, HOWEVER REALISTIC IT MAY PROVE IN PRACTICE. CURLEY UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LAS SIFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686373 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686374 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ORIGIN EUR-00 STATE INFO ADS-00 PRS-01 LOG-OO USIE-00 366446 SS-00 /006 R NSCE-00 PA-02 CPR-02 SSC-01 DRAFTED BY: EUR/NE:TEXT RECEIVED FROM WHITE HOUSE APPROVED BY: E U R :RRJOHNSON EUR/NE: VSGRAY S/S-C: VFUTSCHER EUR/NE:EMHEAPHY ------------------ 366205 151936Z /49 P 151749Z NOV 89 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY DUBLIN PRIORITY UNCLAS STATE 3 6 6 4 4 6 (RELEASED IN FULL) E.O. 12356:: N/A TAGS: PREL, El SUBJECT: PRESIDENT BUSH'S RESPONSE TO PRIME MINISTER'S MESSAGE ON CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE 1. PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY HAS SENT THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE TO PRESIDENT BUSH: BEGIN TEXT: THE PRESIDENT THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC 20500 I HAVE LEARNED WITH GREAT SADNESS OF THE EARTHQUAKE WHICH HAS HIT THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA. ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE PEOPLE OF IRELAND AND ON MY OWN BEHALF I WISH TO EXTEND OUR DEEPEST SYMPATHY TO THE VICTIMS OF THIS GREAT TRAGEDY. CHARLES J. HAUGHEY, T.D., UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 STATE 366446 TAOISEACH END TEXT. [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686374 Date: 09/04/2012 5 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686374 Date: U9/U4/2U12 PLEASE CONVEY THE F O L L O W I N G M E S S A G E F R O M PRESIDENT B U S H TO PRIME M I N I S T E R HAUGHEY: BEGIN iEXT. ' DEAR TAOISEACH: ON BEHALF OF THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA AND THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES, I WOULD LIKE TO THANK YOU FOR YOUR THOUGHTFUL MESSAGE OF CONCERN IN THE WAKE OF THE EARTHQUAKE THAT STRUCK THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON OCTOBER 17. YOUR HEARTFELT EXPRESSION OF SYMPATHY WAS MOST APPRECIATED AND WILL BE A SOURCE OF COMFORT AND SUPPORT TO US AS WE UNDERTAKE THE TASK OF REBUILDING. SINCERELY, GEORGE BUSH END TEXT. THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNED ORIGINAL. BAKER UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686374 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686375 Date: 09/04/2012 ?>> g CONFIDE N T I A L PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 05516 141355Z LOG-OO USIE-00 ADS-00 SS-00 NSCE-00 SSO-OO PA-01 PRS-01 /004 W ------------------ 247516 141419Z /41 0 141345Z SEP 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0000 NSC WASHINGTON DC CPR-02 C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 05516 ______________ FOR EUR/NE [RELEASED IN FULL] E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: OPRC SUBJECT: DEATH OF PRIME MINISTER'S MOTHER FOR LONGMEYER FROM CURRAN 1. (C--ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. M R S . SARAH HAUGHEY, THE WIDOWED MOTHER OF IRISH PRIME MINISTER CHARLES J. HAUGHEY, DIED YESTERDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER, AGED 89. EMBASSY RECOMMENDS THAT THE PRESIDENT SEND A NOTE OF CONDOLENCE TO MR. HAUGHEY WHOM HE MET WHEN THE PRIME MINISTER CALLED ON HIM IN THE WHITE HOUSE LAST 17 MARCH. IN ADDITION TO THE PRIME MINISTER, M R S . HAUGHEY HAD THREE OTHER SONS AND THREE DAUGHTERS. SHE AND HER LATE HUSBAND, COMMANDANT SEAN HAUGHEY, WERE ACTIVE IN THE STRUGGLE FOR IRISH INDEPENDENCE. 3. RECOMMENDED TEXT: DEAR PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE ACCEPT MY CONDOLENCES ON THE DEATH OF YOUR MOTHER. 1 KNOW WHAT A SENSE OF FINAL LOSS LOSING A PARENT BRINGS. NO OTHER RELATIONSHIP CAN REALLY BE THE SAME. WE MUST ALSO REMEMBER, HOWEVER, THAT YOUR MOTHER ENJOYED A FULL LIFE, INDEED, AND THAT IT MUST HAVE BEEN AN OCCASION OF PARTICULAR PRIDE TO HER TO SEE ONE OF HER SONS BECOME THE LEADER OF GOVERNMENT. END TEXT. MOORE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN REVIEW AUTHORITY: 05516 141355Z Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer| UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686375 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686375 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686375 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 ? U N CL AS S I F I E D PAGE Cl ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 EXIM-0 6 OPIC-07 JUSE-00 LOG-OO H-01 ITC-01 USIE-00 05092 01 OF 06 AID-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 SP-02 R 241603Z AUG 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2 760 INFO EC COLLECTIVE 241930Z INR-0 7 CIAE-00 EB-00 COME-00 LAB-04 CTME-00 STR-18 INRE-00 SEC-01 FDIC-01 E-01 /051 W o066423 242044Z /72 UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 0 6 DUBLIN 050 92 DODE-OO TRSE-00 FRB-01 , .. _ _____ -- _ , [RELEASED IN FULL[ E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ECON, KSPR, El SUBJECT: ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR IRELAND, JUNE JULY, 1989 1. SUMMARY: THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRELAND RAISED ITS SHORT TERM LENDING RATE BY 1 PERCENT IN LATE JUNE, THE SECOND SUCH INCREASE THIS YEAR. INFLATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR IS RUNNING AT ABOUT 4 PERCENT, ALMOST DOUBLE THE INFLATION RATE FOR 1988. THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW AT A STRONG PACE WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN EXPORTS, INVESTMENT AND CONSUMER SPENDING. MOST ESTIMATES OF GNP GROWTH HAVE BEEN IN THE RANGE OF 4 - 4.5 PERCENT, BUT THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ESRI) JUST ISSUED ITS QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW WHICH PREDICTS 5.75 PERCENT REAL GROWTH THIS YEAR WITH CONSEQUENT IMPROVEMENTS IN GOVERNMENT REVENUES AND EMPLOYMENT. ESRI ISSUED ITS "MEDIUM TERM REVIEW" IN JULY, ESTIMATING AN AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN REAL GNP OF 5 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. THE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS IN ITS EFFORTS TO REDUCE ITS BORROWING REQUIREMENTS. REVENUES DURING THE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN 05092 01 OF 06 241930Z FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR WERE ABOUT IP 200 MILLION HIGHER THAN PROJECTED, LEADING THE CONFEDERATION OF IRISH INDUSTRY TO ESTIMATE THE YEAR'S BUDGET DEFICIT AT 4 PERCENT OF GNP, COMPARED TO THE 5.3 PERCENT FIGURE REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer| UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 7 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 PUT FORWARD IN THE G O V E R N M E N T 'S B U D G E T E S T IMATES A T THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. THE NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT FORMED IN JULY BETWEEN THE FIANNA FAIL PARTY OF PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY AND THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF IRELAND'S ECONOMIC POLICY, BUT DID BRING A REDEFINITION ON CERTAIN ISSUES. END SUMMARY. 2. THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRELAND RAISED ITS SHORT TERM INTEREST RATE BY 1 PERCENT IN LATE JUNE IN REACTION TO A NUMBER OF DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INCLUDING RATE ADJUSTMENTS IN GERMANY AND REPORTEDLY LARGE CAPITAL OUTFLOWS FROM IRELAND IN RECENT MONTHS. THE INCREASE BROUGHT THE PRIME RATE TO 10 PERCENT AND PERSONAL LENDING RATES TO 15 PERCENT. 3. INFLATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR WAS ABOUT 4 PERCENT. THERE IS CONCERN IN THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY THAT STRONG CONSUMER DEMAND COUPLED WITH SPECULATIVE INCREASES IN HOUSE PRICES COULD LEAD TO EVEN HIGHER INFLATION. THE CONFEDERATION OF IRISH INDUSTRY (ClI) AND THE ESRI HAVE POINTED OUT THAT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY OFFERS AN EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER REDUCE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND BORROWING WITHOUT ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH. 4. THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW AT A STRONG PACE. MOST ESTIMATES PUT GROWTH AT ABOUT 4 -4.5 PERCENT FOR THE YEAR, BUT THE ESRI JUST RELEASED ITS QUARTERLY UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 DUBLIN 05092 01 OF 06 241930Z ECONOMIC REVIEW PROJECTING A 5.75 RATE OF GROWTH IN REAL GNP FOR 198 9 WITH CONSEQUENT IMPROVEMENTS IN EMPLOYMENT AND GOVERNMENT FINANCES. MANUFACTURING OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 9 PERCENT IN VOLUME DURING THE YEAR, ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF WHICH IS EXPORTED. PRODUCTION INCREASES IN THE LARGELY FOREIGN-OWNED TECHNOLOGY SECTORS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG. IN 1988, THOSE INDUSTRIES (CHEMICALS, ELECTRONICS AND PHARMACEUTICALS) SHOWED INCREASES OF 21 PERCENT, COMPARED TO INCREASES OF ABOUT 5 PERCENT IN TRADITIONAL IRISH INDUSTRIES. CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR HAS INCREASED FROM 71 PERCENT IN 1987 TO ABOUT 76 PERCENT THIS YEAR. THIS, IN TURN, HAS HELPED TO SPUR BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN EQUIPMENT, WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO RISE BY 20 PERCENT UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 THIS YEAR. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION IS ALSO UP THIS YEAR, SHOWING A 7 PERCENT INCREASE DURING THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 1989 OVER THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. CAR SALES JUMPED BY 23 PERCENT DURING THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 1989 COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. 5. IRELAND'S EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SURPLUSES. THE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN REVISED TO USD 204 MILLION AND THE TRADE SURPLUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR IS ESTIMATED AT USD 1.4 BILLION, ABOUT USD 82 MILLION HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS SAY THAT THEY EXPECT A TRADE SURPLUS OF OVER USD 2.7 BILLION FOR THE YEAR. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN, HOWEVER, ABOUT THE LARGE AND ERRATIC CAPITAL OUTFLOWS WHICH HAVE TAKEN PLACE SINCE EXCHANGE CONTROLS WERE RELAXED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. HIGH LEVELS OF PROFIT REPATRIATIONS BY FOREIGN-OWNED FIRMS AND PRIVATE CAPITAL OUTFLOWS FOR INVESTMENT ABROAD HAVE BEEN OF UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 DUBLIN 05092 01 OF 06 241930Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 05092 02 OF 06 241932Z LOG-00 H-01 ITC-01 USIE-00 ADS-00 AID-00 INR-07 CIAE-00 EB-00 EXIM-06 NSAE-00 COME-OO LAB-04 CTME-00 OPIC-07 OMB-01 STR-18 INRE-00 SEC-01 JUSE-00 SP-02 FDIC-01 E-01 /051 W ------------------ 066441 242044Z /72 R 241603Z AUG 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2 7 61 INFO EC COLLECTIVE DODE-OO TRSE-00 FRB-01 UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 06 DUBLIN 05092 E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ECON, KSPR, El SUBJECT: ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR IRELAND, JUNE PARTICULAR CONCERN. 6. THE ESRI RELEASED ITS "MEDIUM TERM REVIEW" IN JULY, PREDICTING ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF REAL GNP AT ABOUT 5 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, INCLUDING 7 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 PERCENT GROWTH IN 1990. IN ITS MOST OPTIMISTIC REPORT TO DATE, ESRI PREDICTED THAT UNEMPLOYMENT WOULD FALL FROM ITS CURRENT LEVEL OF ALMOST 17 PERCENT TO 12.7 PERCENT IN 1994 AND THAT THE NATIONAL DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GNP WOULD FALL FROM 130 PERCENT TO ABOUT 84 PERCENT IN THE SAME PERIOD. ESRI BASED ITS FORECAST ON THE CURRENT ROBUST STATE OF THE ECONOMY, LARGE INFUSIONS OF CAPITAL FROM THE EC STRUCTURAL FUNDS, CONTINUED STRONG EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND INCREASE CONSUMER SPENDING. PERHAPS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC PART OF THE SCENARIO IS THAT THIS HIGH LEVEL OF GROWTH CAN BE ACHEIVED WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN INFLATION. 7. THE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN 05092 02 OF 06 241932Z TOWARD ITS GOAL OF REDUCING ITS BORROWING REQUIREMENTS. GOVERNMENT REVENUES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR WERE ABOUT USD 274 MILLION ABOVE BUDGET ESTIMATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, WHILE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BUDGET ESTIMATES. A NUMBER OF PRIVATE FORECASTERS, INCLUDING THE CII, ARE NOW PREDICTING THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S BORROWING REQUIREMENTS WILL AMOUNT TO ABOUT 4 - 4 . 5 PERCENT OF GNP FOR THE YEAR, COMPARED TO BUDGET ESTIMATES OF 5.3 PERCENT. 8. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A COALITION GOVERNMENT LAST MONTH BETWEEN THE FIANNA FAIL PARTY OF PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY AND THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS RESULTED IN A NEW PROGRAM OF GOVERNMENT. THE COALITION PLEDGED TO HONOR THE GOVERNMENT'S COMMITMENTS UNDER THE PROGRAM FOR NATIONAL RECOVERY, AND TO SEEK WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF LABOR, EMPLOYERS AND FARMERS A NEW CONSENSUS PROGRAM WHEN THE CURRENT ONE EXPIRES IN 1990. LITTLE HAS CHANGED ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT EXCEPT FOR A REDEFINITION OF SOME MAJOR POLICY GOALS. UNDER THE COALITION PROGRAM FOR GOVERNMENT JOB CREATION WILL BE A MAJOR PRIORITY AS IT WAS UNDER THE PREVIOUS FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT, BUT THE TARGET FOR GROSS JOB CREATION HAS BEEN RAISED FROM 20,000 TO 35,000 PER YEAR. TO ACHEIVE THIS TARGET THE GOVERNMENT WILL SEEK PRO-EMPLOYMENT TAX REFORM, INCREASED FLEXIBILITY AND COMPETITION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ECONOMY AND MACROECONOMIC POLICIES DESIGNED TO KEEP INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES LOW. A MAJOR PLANK IN THE GOVERNMENT'S UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UN C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 TAX REFORM PROGRAM WILL BE TO ACHIEVE A STANDARD INCOME TAX RATE OF 25 PERCENT BY 1993 (CURRENTLY 32 PERCENT) AND PROVIDE RELIEF FOR LOWER INCOME BRACKETS. THE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 DUBLIN 05092 02 OF 06 241932Z COALITION CHOSE A RATHER MODEST GOAL OF REDUCING GOVERNMENT BORROWING REQUIREMENTS TO 3 PERCENT OF GNP BY 1993, ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS. THE NEW PROGRAM FOR GOVERNMENT REAFFIRMED THE GOVERNMENT'S COMMITMENT TO A VIABLE AND PROFITABLE SEMI-STATE SECTOR. AVOIDING THE WORD PRIVITIZATION, THE PROGRAM PROMISED "CHANGES IN OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE" ONLY WHEN IT IS IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF THE COMPANY AND ITS EMPLOYEES AND ONLY AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE "SOCIAL PARTNERS." 9. UPDATED ECONOMIC STATISTICS ARE LISTED BELOW. DATA FOR CATEGORIES NOT INCLUDED REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS. INFORMATION SOURCES ARE INDICATED IN THE TABLES. 10. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (CBI, ANNUAL REPORT 1988) -- -- PERCENT 1989 1988 CHANGE (FORE1987 (EST) '87-'88 CAST) (IN IR POUNDS MILLION AT CURRENT PRICES) PERSONAL CONSUMER EXPENDITURE PUBLIC NET CURRENT EXPENDITURE GROSS DOMESTIC FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE EXPORTS 11,478 11,991 4.47 12,862 3,560 3,565 .001 3,672 3,439 3,577 4.01 3,975 18,449 18,914 2.52 20,471 05092 02 OF 06 UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 DUBLIN 241932Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 DUBLIN 0 5 0 9 2 0 3 OF 0 6 241934Z PAGE 01 ACT I O N EUR-0 0 INFO LOG-OO H-01 ITC-01 USIE-00 ADS-00 AID-00 INR-07 CIAE-00 EB-00 EXIM-06 NSAE-00 COME-OO LAB-04 CTME-00 OPIC-07 OMB-Ol STR-18 INRE-00 SEC-01 JUSE-00 SP-02 FDIC-01 E-01 /051 W ------------------ 066442 242046Z /72 R 241603Z AUG 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2 7 62 INFO EC COLLECTIVE DODE-OO TRSE-00 FRB-01 UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 06 DUBLIN 05092 E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ECON, KSPR, El SUBJECT: ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR IRELAND, JUNE 11,796 11. --MID-FEBRUARY MID-MAY MID-AUGUST UNCLASSIFIED 13,545 14.82 15,562 10,470 11,567 10.48 13,454 19,775 1,957 20,892 2,542 5.65 29.89 22,579 2,779 17,818 (GOODS&SERVICES) IMPORTS (GOODS&SERVICES) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT MARKET PRICES NET FACTOR INCOME GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT MARKET PRICES 18,350 2.30 19,800 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (BASE MID-NOV 1982 EQUALS 100)(CSO) 1987 1988 129.7 130.5 131.2 1989 132.2 132.9 134.0 136.6 138.0 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN MID-NOVEMBER 131.3 134.8 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (IN MILLIONS OF IRISH POUNDS) (CBI, DECEMBER 1988) 12 . 05092 03 OF 06 241934Z 1989 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17 -- 1988 (FORE -- (EST) 1987 TRADE BAL.(ADJUSTED) SERVICES (INCLUDING TOURISM) FACTOR INCOME INTERNATIONAL TRANSFERS BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT PERCENT OF GNP CAST) 1,310 2,025 2,178 7 -1,957 -58 -2,542 -70 -2,779 879 1,011 1,275 437 (2.50) 604 (3.00) 239 (1.25) 13. -- WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX (CSO) (BASE 1985 EQUALS 100) -- 1987 1988 1ST QUARTER 2ND QUARTER 3RD QUARTER 4TH QUARTER YEARLY 97.3 98.0 98.9 99.4 98.4 100 .2 101. 6 103.5 104 .5 102.4 1989 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH 106 .1 (PROV) 106 .0 (PROV) 105 .7 (PROV) 14. VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES INDEX--ALL BUSINESS COMBINED (1980 EQUALS 100) (CSO) (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED DUBLIN PAGE 03 05092 - - -- 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH 1989 QUART 88.8 1ST QUART 90.1 QUART 89.5 2ND QUART 89.5 QUART 88.9 3RD QUART 90.9 QUART 89.2 4TH QUART 93.0 VOLUME OF PRODUCTION INDICES FOR (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) (1980 EQUALS 100) (CSO) -- 1987 QTR QTR QTR QTR 241934Z 1988 1987 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH 15. 03 OF 06 1988 1989 138.7 150 .2 152 .9 156.5 165.5 162.7 170 .9 176.3 187 .9 96.7 (PROV) JAN 94 .6 FEB 94 .1 MAR 95.9 (PROV) APR MANUFACTURING 1989 JAN: FEB: MAR: APR: 198 .9 181.7 182.8 176.4 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 15. BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT (WITH 5 OR MORE PERSONS ENGAGED) (1980 EQUALS 100) (CSO) -- 1987 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT: OCT NOV DEC 1988 43 .9 43 .4 43 .0 41 .7 41 .4 41 .2 42 0 40 .6 41 .4 40 .4 40 .0 39 1 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT: OCT NOV DEC . . 38 .4 37 .8 37 .9 37.1 37.8 38 .1 39.8 39.1 39.4 39.2 39.5 39.4 1989 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 40 .5 40 .6 41 .0 40 1 41 .5 41 .9 (PROV) . UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 DUBLIN 05092 03 OF 06 241934Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 U N U L A S S IH L D U .S . D e p a rtm e n t o f S ta te C a s e N o. h - 2U 1U -U /9U U D o c N o. C l / 6 8 6 3 / 6 D a te : U 9 /0 4 /2 U 1 2 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 EXIM-06 OPIC-07 JUSE-00 LOG-OO H-01 ITC-01 USIE-00 05092 04 OF 06 AID-00 NSAE-00 OMB-Ol SP-02 241935Z INR-0 7 CIAE-00 EB-00 COME-00 LAB-04 CTME-00 INRE-00 SEC-01 STR-18 FDIC-01 E-01 /051 W ?066443 242046Z /72 DODE-OO TRSE-00 FRB-01 R 241603Z AUG 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2 7 63 INFO EC COLLECTIVE UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 06 DUBLIN 05092 E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ECON, KSPR, El SUBJECT: ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR IRELAND, JUNE YEAR AVERAGE: 41.5 38.6 16 NUMBER OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYED PERCENTAGE OF WORK FORCE 1987 (UNADJUSTED) NUMBER (UNADJUSTED) (CSO) NUMBER (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UN C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No C 17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 JAN 19.4 FEB 19.2 MAR 19.0 APR 19.1 MAY 18 .8 JUN 18 .8 JUL 18 .9 AUG 19.0 SEPT: 18.4 OCT 18 .1 NOV 18.4 UNCLASSIFIED 254,500 252,500 249,400 250,700 246,100 246,800 248,500 248,800 241,800 238,000 241,000 246,000 246,200 245,200 250,200 250,400 249,900 249,300 247,900 247,200 245,300 245,600 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN DEC; 19.1 PERCENTAGE OF WORK FORCE 1988 (UNADJUSTED) JAN: FEB: MAR: APR: MAY: JUN: JUL: AUG: SEPT: OCT: NOV: DEC: 19 .4 19 .2 19 .0 18 .6 18 .1 18 .3 18 .6 18 .7 18 .1 17 .9 18 .0 18 .7 05092 244,800 NUMBER (UNADJUSTED) NUMBER (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 252,200 250,600 247 ,100 241,700 235,900 237 ,700 242 ,200 242 ,900 235,900 233,400 234 ,300 242 ,900 NUMBER (UNADJUSTED) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 245,400 241,500 240,700 233,100 228,600 230,300 230,000 17 . 241935Z 250,100 PERCENTAGE OF WORK FORCE 1989 (UNADJUSTED) 18 .9 18.6 18.5 17.8 17.5 17 .6 17.6 04 OF 06 243,800 244,400 242,900 241,200 240,100 240 ,800 242 ,800 241,900 241 ,400 240 ,000 239,000 237,600 NUMBER (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 237 ,100 235,500 236,200 232,900 233,000 233,200 230,800 MONEY SUPPLY (M3 IN IR POUND BILLION) (CBI) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 -- 1987 1988 UNCLASS I F I E D 1989 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 DUBLIN 05092 04 OF 06 241935Z JAN 8.73 JAN: 9.71 JAN FEB 8.83 FEB: 9.68 FEB MAR 8.83 MAR: 9.77 MAR APR 9.08 APR: 9.72 APR MAY 9.17 MAY: 9.95 MAY JUN 9.22 JUN: 9.96 JUN JUL 9.29 JUL: 10.12 AUG 9.46 AUG: 10.16 SEPT: 9.55 SEPT: 10.28 OCT OCT: 10.06 9. 60 NOV 9. 68 NOV: 10.12 DEC DEC: 10.4 9.80 18 . THREE MONTH INTERBANK INTEREST RATE -- (3 MONTH'S FIXED)(CBI) -- JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 19 . -- 1987 14.06 14.25 13.12 11.19 11.12 10.44 9. 69 9. 94 9.00 9.19 9.19 8.88 10 .5 10 .3 10 .2 10.4 10 .6 10 .5 1989 1988 8 .19 JAN JAN: 8.56 8.31 FEB FEB: 8.88 MAR 8 .19 MAR: 8.56 9.19 APR APR: 8.06 9.44 MAY MAY: 7.31 10.50 JUN JUN: 7.69 JUL: 7.81 AUG: 8.06 SEP: 7.56 OCT: 7.62 NOV: 8.06 DEC: 8.38 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES (GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET)(CBI) 8-YEARS 15-YEARS 8-YEARS 15-YEARS UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 DUBLIN 05092 04 OF 06 241935Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN 05092 05 OF 06 241936Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 INFO LOG-00 H-01 ITC-G1 USIE-00 ADS-00 EXIM-06 OPIC-07 JUSE-00 AID-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 SP-02 INR-07 CIAE-00 EB-00 COME-0 0 LAB-04 CTME-00 INRE-00 SEC-01 STR-18 FDIC-01 E-01 /051 W -066444 242046Z /72 DODE-OO TRSE-00 FRB-01 R 241603Z AUG 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2764 INFO EC COLLECTIVE UNCLAS SECTION 05 OF 06 DUBLIN 05092 E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ECON, KSPR, El SUBJECT: ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR IRELAND, JUNE TO TO MATURITY MATURITY 1988 TO TO MATURITY MATURITY 1987 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 12 .75 12 .64 11 .55 10 .48(E) 10 .97(E) 10 .86 11 .71 11 .80 10 .24 11 .02 10 .20(E) 10 .50(E) 12 .64 12 .41 10 .93 10 .47(E) 10 .92(E) 10 .93 11 .81 11 .92 11 .30 11 .05 10 o23(E) 10 .45(E) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC 10 .80 10 .54 10 .17 9 .75 9 .84 9 .61 9 .73 9 .65 9 .27 8 .44(E) 8 .44(E) 8 .64(E) 10 .61 10 .41 10 .12 9 .74 9 .80 9 .61 9 .68 9 .52 9 .15 8 .40(E) 8 .40(E) 8 .41(E) 15-YEARS TO 8- YEARS TO UNCLASSIFIED ____ -- UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN MATURITY JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 8.65 (E) 8 .99 8 .79 9.16 9.47 05092 05 OF 06 241936Z MATURITY 1989 8.41 (E) 8.79 8.77 9.06 9.31 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 JUN: 20 . -- 9.18 8.96 SELECTED INTEREST RATES 1988 DEC TYPE JAN 198 9 FEB MAR CENTRAL BANK REDISCOUNT GOVERNMENT SECURITIES - ONE YEAR - 3 YEARS 7 .50 7.50 8.00 8.00 8.39 (E) 8.56(E) 8.50(E) 8.55(E) 8 .53 8 .97 8.56 8.84 INTERBANK - OVERNIGHT - 3-MONTH 7.88 8.38 7. 62 8.19 7.50 8 .31 8.00 MORTGAGE LOANS 21. --- 8 .19 -8 .25- SHARE PRICE INDEX ON IRISH STOCK EXCHANGE (CSO) (1988 EQUALS 1000) 1987 1989 1988 JAN: 1081.1 UNCLASSIFIED JAN JAN: 1000 4 . 1369.4 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 22 . DUBLIN 1195.9 1271.1 1293.5 1306.8 1343.8 1393.0 1553.0 1585.7 1704.6 1197.4 987 .8 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUT AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC EXCHANGE RATE 1987 1ST QTR: 2ND QTR: 3RD QTR: 05092 05 OF 0 6 1144 .9 1148 .3 1175. 5 1212 .9 1352 .6 1441 .2 1473. 4 1395 .7 1433. 7 1411. 3 1345. 1 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL US DOLLAR/IR POUND 241936Z 1494.7 1556.4 1590.1 1677.2 1649.4 1594.2 (CBI) 1988 1.4765 1.4665 1.4594 1ST QTR: 2ND QTR: 3RD QTR: 1989 1.6140 1.4746 1.4251 JAN: FEB: MAR: 1 .4594 1 .4414 1 .4312 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 4TH QTR: 1.6755 23. 4TH QTR: 1.5063 MERCHANDISE TRADE (CSO) (IR POUNDS MILLIONS) PERIOD IMPORTS JAN-DEC 1986 JAN-DEC 198 7 JAN-DEC 1988 - IMPORTS 1.4269 MAY: JUNE 1 .3744 1 .3479 EXPORTS 10,348 11,784 12,300 9,860 10,461 10,213 198 9 1988 MONTH APR: EXPORTS MONTH IMPORTS EXPORTS UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 DUBLIN 05092 05 OF 06 241936Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 05092 06 OF 06 241937Z LOG-00 H-01 ITC-01 USIE-00 ADS-00 AID-00 INR-07 CIAE-00 EB-00 EXIM-06 NSAE-00 COME-OO LAB-04 CTME-00 OPIC-07 OMB-Ol STR-18 INRE-00 SEC-01 JUSE-00 SP-02 FDIC-01 E-01 /051 W ------------------ 066445 242046Z /72 R 241603Z AUG 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2 765 INFO EC COLLECTIVE DODE -00 TRSE -00 FRB- 01 UNCLAS SECTION 0 6 OF 0 6 DUBLIN 050 92 E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ECON, KSPR, El SUBJECT: ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR IRELAND, JUNE JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG 696.8 784 .1 927 .3 782 .8 825.3 828 .3 774 .3 823.3 799.0 921.5 1 ,025.3 936. 6 1 ,030.0 1 ,105.6 1 ,057.2 910.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 985 979 1,043 1,033 1,053 1,036 1,034 1,103 1,215 1,246 1,298 1,271 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17688378 Date: uy/04/^un^ SEPT: 888.9 1,139.1 1,037.4 871.2 1,186.2 1,074.3 OCT: 970.4 NOV: DEC: 24 . 1,111.6 MERCHANDISE TRADE WITH US (IR POUNDS THOUSANDS) (CSO) EXPORTS IMPORTS PERIOD UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED DUBLIN PAGE 02 ____ - - MONTH JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT: OCT NOV DEC 050 92 JAN -DEC 1986 JAN -DEC 1987 JAN -OCT 1988 IMPORTS EXPORTS 1988 62 .5 70 .6 68.5 65.9 73.3 72.9 86.6 73.7 106.6 96.9 89.9 79.0 116.9 129.3 154.1 131.3 137 .6 135.9 99 .9 123 .1 14 6.9 157 .3 156.4 140 .0 06 OF 06 1 ,364. 8 1 ,554 7 1 ,325 3 MONTH JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE : 241937Z 820 .3 833 .8 779 .8 EXPORTS IMPORTS 1989 71.8 82.0 87 .9 95.0 88 .7 105.3 164 .2 156.3 177 .7 172 .6 166.6 176.9 OFFICIAL EXTERNAL RESERVES (CSO) 25. GOLD SDR'S RES . POS. IMF GOLD 1989 1988 JAN 78 .7 FEB 78.7 MAR 78.7 APR 76.4 MAY 76.4 UNCLASSIFIED SDR'S RES . POS . IN IMF 83.2 84 .8 84 .8 84 .8 86.3 88 .0 86.5 86.5 86.5 82.2 74 .2 74 .2 74.2 73.2 73.2 90 .1 92.4 92.4 92 .4 94.8 91 1 87 1 87 1 87 1 82 .2 . . . . UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 176863/b Date: Uy/U4/^U 11 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE C 3 JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC DUBLIN 76 .4 77 .0 77 .0 77 .0 75 .3 75 .3 75 .3 86. 3 86. 3 86. 3 88 .0 88 .0 90 .1 90 .1 FORN EXCH. - - -- ECU -JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 050 92 94 .1 94 .1 91 .1 91 .1 94 .4 94 .4 91 .1 TOT 06 OF 06 73.2 ECU 1988 155 .1 157 .1 155 .0 207 .6 199 .7 242 .2 277 .3 299 .2 297 .1 287 .4 281 .7 286 .3 2,488 .5 2,441. 4 2,670. 0 2,724. 1 2,973. 9 3,012. 7 2,809. 7 2,791. 1 2,748. 4 2,668. 2 2,444. 6 2,618. 2 241937Z 94.8 FORN EXCH. 86 .6 TOT 1989 2 ,893 .5 2 ,848 .5 3,075 .1 3,179 .5 3,418 .5 3,511 .8 3,344 .4 3,344 .6 3,301 .6 3,213 .3 2,986 . 1 3,161 .0 279. 6 278 .0 266.1 197.1 196.8 197.2 2, 627 .3 2, 424 .0 2, 216.0 2, 060.9 2, 161.3 2, 045.6 3 ,162.3 2 ,955.7 2 ,735.8 2 ,510.6 2 ,608.3 2 ,497.5 CURRAN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686376 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 ? g PAGE 01 OFIGIN EUR-03 STATE INFO ADS-00 LOG-00 221038 SSO-OO DRAFTED BY: E U R :CMUNTER APPROVED BY: EUR: CMUNTER DESIRED DISTRIBUTION EUR ONLY THREE COPIES ONLY O 122342Z JUL 89 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE S E C R E T ONY-OO /003 R 333355 RELEASED IN PART B1.1.4(D)] 130029Z /66 Classification Extended on : 08/23/2012 ~ Class: CONFIDENTIAL - A uthority: DSCG 11-1 - Declassify on: 07-12-2014 STATE 221038 PARIS FOR ACTING A/S DOBBINS ONLY E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR TAGS: PREL SUBJECT: OFFICIAL-INFORMAL: EUR DAILY ACTIVITIES REPORT, JULY 12, 1989. ____________ [d e c o n t r o l l e d ! BEGIN EUR/CE: (C) IMPLEMENTATION OF THE VISA WAIVER PILOT PROGRAM - THE SAGA CONTINUES: CE MET ON TUESDAY WITH COLLEAGUES FROM CA AND L/CA TO DISCUSS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE VISA WAIVER PILOT PROGRAM FOR THE POSSIBLE ENTRY INTO THE U.S. OF FRANZ SCHOENHUBER, LEADER OF THE REPUBLIKANER PARTY, AND OTHER INDIVIDUALS WHO MIGHT BE INADMISSIBLE BECAUSE OF PERSECUTION DURING THE NAZI ERA. CA INFORMED US THAT IT HAS PUT SCHOENHUBER ON ITS LOOKOUT LIST SO THAT THE DEPARTMENT WILL BE NOTIFIED IF HE APPLIES FOR A VISA. THIS MEANS THAT IN THE NEAR FUTURE HE WILL ALSO SHOW UP IN THE INS LOOKOUT SYSTEM AS A SUSPECTED PERSECUTER AND WILL BE DETAINED IF HE TRIES TO SECRET PAGE 02 STATE 221038 ENTER THE U.S. ON AN EXISTING VISA. YESTERDAY'S PRESS CLIPS FROM BONN INCLUDED A SMALL PIECE THAT AN NYU PROFESSOR WHOSE FAMILY HAD SUFFERED IN THE HOLOCAUST INVITED SCHOENHUBER TO SPEAK IN THE U.S. THE PROFESSOR WARNED AGAINST IGNORING THE RIGHT WING UNTIL IT WAS TOO LATE AS HAD HAPPENED IN GERMANY BEFORE HITLER'S RISE. REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. f--2 u iu -u /yu u Doc No. C1 /6S63/Y Date: Uy/U4/2U12 WE HAVE NOT YET WORKED OUT A SATISFACTORY SYSTEM UNDER THE NEW VISA WAIVER PROGRAM FOR HANDLING THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE BEEN FOUND INELIGIBLE FOR ADMISSION TO THE U.S. BECAUSE THEY ARE GUILTY OF PERSECUTION DURING THE NAZI ERA (SECTION 212 (A)(33) OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT) OR WHO ARE SUSPECTED OF BEING INELIGIBLE ON THOSE GROUNDS (83S). CA HAS LEARNED THAT, AT THE REQUEST OF O S I , THE INS HAS INCLUDED IN ITS LOOKOUT SYSTEM 58,000 NAMES OF SS OFFICERS, CONCENTRATION CAMP GUARDS AND MOBILE KILLING SQUAD MEMBERS. THESE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ENTERED INTO THE INS LOOKOUT SYSTEM AS 83S (THOSE SUSPECTED OF PERSECUTION). OSI HAS REQUESTED THAT IF ANY OF THOSE PEOPLE ATTEMPTS TO ENTER, INS SHOULD DETAIN THEM AT THE PORT AND CONTACT OSI IMMEDIATELY. CE AND L ARE WORKING ON A LETTER AND TALKING POINTS TO CONVINCE DOJ POLICY MAKERS THEY SHOULD INSTRUCT INS TO GRANT DEFERRED ENTRY INSTEAD OF DETENTION TO 83S. WE WILL QUICKLY LOSE ALL THE GOOD WILL OF THE WAIVER PROGRAM IF INS DETAINS NUMEROUS "SUSPECTS" RATHER THAN ALLOWING THEM TO ENTER PENDING FURTHER ADJUDICATION OF THEIR CASES. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION THAT OSI HAS PROBABLY ENTERED AS 83S PEOPLE WHOM CONSULAR OFFICERS HAVE INVESTIGATED, FOUND ELIGIBLE AND ISSUED VISAS TO. EVEN WITH VALID VISAS, THEY MAY BE DETAINED IF THE INDIVIDUALS INS OFFICER SO DECIDES. WE WILL HAVE THE SECRET PAGE 03 STATE 221038 LETTER AND TALKING POINTS FOR JUSTICE TO SHOW YOU (LOU) SEITERS POSTPONES VISIT: CHANCELLOR KOHL'S CHIEF OF STAFF HAS HAD TO POSTPONE HIS PLANNED JULY 27-28 VISIT TO WASHINGTON OWING TO A MATTER THAT REQUIRES HIS PRESENCE IN THE FRG AT THAT TIME. SEITERS HOPES TO RESCHEDULE HIS TRIP IN OCTOBER. (SAVAGE/FRG EMBASSY) (S) BUT HOLIK AND NAUMANN COMING: FRG ARMS CONTROL COMMISSIONER HOLIK AND MOD POL/MIL AFFAIRS HEAD MGEN NAUMANN HOPE TO COME TO WASHINGTON JULY 24-26 (OR ALTERNATIVELY, JULY 31-AUGUST 1) FOR "GET ACQUAINTED" DISCUSSION ON ARMS CONTROL ISSUES -- AND, SPECIFICALLY, ACCORDING TO THE FRG EMBASSY, "TO FOLLOW UP ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SECRETARY AND GENSCHER TO HAVE QUIET BILATERAL DISCUSSIONS ON HANDLING THE SNF ISSUE." (WE NOTED TO THE FRG EMBASSY THAT OUR RECOLLECTION OF THE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 BAKER-GENSCHER REFERENCE TO BILATERAL DISCUSSIONS WAS RAISED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CFE -- NOT SNF. JOHN HAWES IS CHECKING WITH BARTHOLOMEW ON HOW HE WANTS TO HANDLE THE MATTER TACTICALLY -- RECOMMENDING THAT WE MAKE IT CLEAR BEFORE THE VISIT THAT WE DO NOT ACCEPT THE FRG UNDERSTANDING OF THE BAKER-GENSCHER "AGREEMENT." ERIC EDELMAN IS CONSULTING WITH KIMMIT FOR HIS VIEWS ON HOW TO PROCEED. ) DURING THE VISIT HOLIK AND NAUMANN WISH TO SEE BARTHOLOMEW; ROSS; YOURSELF, JIM DOBBINS AND AVIS BOHLEN; AND DICK CLARKE; AS WELL AS LEHMAN; GATES, BLACKWILL AND KANTER; WOLFOWITZ AND THE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEES CHAIRMEN. (SAVAGE/CONVERSATIONS WITH FRG EMBASSY AND T AND P STAFFS) END EUR/CE. SECRET PAGE 04 STATE 221038 BEGIN EUR/EEY (7/12/89): (C) ROMANIA ATTACKS PRESIDENT BUSH'S EASTERN EUROPEAN POLICY IN THE WAKE OF THE JULY 7-8 WARSAW PACT SUMMIT IN BUCHAREST, PRESIDENT CEAUSESCU, BOTH DIRECTLY AND THROUGH THE OFFICIAL ROMANIAN MEDIA (WHICH MENTIONED PRESIDENT BUSH BY NAME), HAS LEVELED SEVERAL ATTACKS ON THE U.S. FOR "SEEKING TO DESTABILIZE SOCIALIST COUNTRIES" THROUGH PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR REFORMS IN EASTERN EUROPE. CITING PORTIONS OF THE SUMMIT'S JOINT COMMUNIQUE, CEAUSESCU HAS ATTEMPTED TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF UNANIMOUS OPPOSITION TO U.S. POLICY AND PROPOSED ASSISTANCE TO THE REGION. IN FACT, THESE ATTACKS MERELY UNDERLINE CEAUSESCU'S PARTICULAR FRUSTRATION WITH THE REFORMS IN POLAND AND HUNGARY AND ROMANIA'S INABILITY TO PERSUADE OTHER WARSAW PACT MEMBERS TO ENDORSE ITS HARD-LINE POSITIONS IN CONFERENCE DOCUMENTS. EMBASSY BUCHAREST RECOMMENDS AGAINST RESPONDING TO -- AND THEREBY DIGNIFYING THE LATEST ROMANIAN ATTACKS. WE CONCUR. (BECKER/BUCHAREST 5583 AND 5618) END EUR/EEY BEGIN EUR/NE: (C) DENMARK'S PM SCHLUETER TO VACATION WITH PRESIDENT? UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 DEN M A R K ' S PRIME M I N I S T E R POUL S C H L UETER W I L L M AKE AN SECRET PAGE 05 STATE 221038 OFFICIAL VISIT TO MEXICO FROM AUGUST 25-31. THE DANISH EMBASSY HAS INQUIRED OF THE NSC STAFF WHETHER IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SCHLUETER TO SEE THE PRESIDENT ON EITHER END OF THE MEXICO TRIP. THE PRESIDENT WILL BE VACATIONING IN KENNIBUNKPORT FROM MID-AUGUST THROUGH LABOR DAY, BUT BECAUSE THE TWO LEADERS ARE GOOD PERSONAL FRIENDS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL INVITE SCHLUETER TO SPEND SOME TIME WITH HIM IN MAINE. THE NSC STAFF WILL WORK DIRECTLY WITH THE DANISH EMBASSY ON THE POSSIBLE SCHEDULING. (KOLB; GRAY; CONVERSATIONS WITH NSC STAFF AND DANISH EMBASSY.) (U) HAUGHEY REELECTED PRIME MINISTER ON JULY 12, THE IRISH PARLIAMENT RE-ELECTED CHARLES HAUGHEY AS PRIME MINISTER, AFTER HAUGHEY SECURED THE SUPPORT OF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS BY RELUCTANTLY AGREEING TO GIVE THEM TWO CABINET SEATS. WE UNDERSTAND, HOWEVER, THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT, WHICH WILL BE ANNOUNCED THIS EVENING, WILL PROBABLY BE REFERRED TO AS AN "ALLIANCE" INSTEAD OF A COALITION. (LONGMYER: TELCON WITH EMBASSY DUBLIN) (U) AN INTERVIEW WITH CHUCK REDMAN THE NEW AMERICAN AMBASSADOR, CHARLES E. REDMAN, WAS INTERVIEWED ON JULY 7 BY THE NATIONAL SWEDISH WIRE SERVICE. THE INTERVIEW, WHICH WAS RUN ON JULY 9 AND WRITTEN UP ON JULY 10 BY MAJOR SWEDISH MORNING NEWSPAPERS, CAPTURED THE MAIN CONCERNS OF REDMAN AS HE LOOKED FORWARD TO DEEPENED SWEDISH-AMERICAN COOPERATION. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND THE WAR AGAINST NARCOTICS WERE MOST HEAVILY EMPHASIZED. IN ADDITION, HE STRESSED THE SECRET PAGE 06 STATE 221038 ONGOING EFFORTS TO DECREASE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, DISCUSSED THE MATTER OF SWEDISH MEMBERSHIP IN THE EC BY STATING THAT IT IS ENTIRELY SWEDEN'S BUSINESS, AND AGREED TO DISAGREE ON THE QUARREL OVER HOW BEST TO BRING DEMOCRACY UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 AND E C O N O M I C DEVEL O P M E N T TO C E N T R A L AMERICA. FINALLY, REDMAN REJECTED THE RUMOR THAT SECRETARY BAKER WILL DE F I N I T E L Y V I S I T SWEDEN THIS FALL, BUT CONFIRMED THE FACT THAT CHIEF JUSTICE REHNQUIST WILL ARRIVE IN AUGUST. (PASTERNACK; STOCKHOLM 4821) END EUR/NE. BEGIN EUR/RPE: (U) EC '92: CARLA HILLS UPS THE LEVEL OF THE 1992 TASK FORCE. RESPONDING TO CONGRESSIONAL CRITICISM THAT EC 1992 REQUIRES BETTER HIGH-LEVEL COORDINATION, JULES KATZ IS FORMING A 1992 TASK FORCE AT THE UNDER SECRETARY/ASSISTANT SECRETARY LEVEL. HE WRITES, "...AS WE BEGIN "PHASE TWO" (OF UNDERSTANDING EC 1992) WE NEED MORE CONSISTENT POLITICAL-LEVEL GUIDANCE AND INVOLVEMENT IN 1992, SO THAT THE BROADER COMPETITIVE, TRADE AND INVESTMENT POLICY ISSUES CAN BE EXAMINED IN TERMS OF THEIR IMPACT ON THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP." WE AND EB HAVE BOTH ATTENDED THE WORKING GROUP, WHICH HAS BEEN VERY EFFECTIVE. FURTHER WORKING LEVEL COORDINATION WILL BE NEEDED, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW THIS WILL BE DONE. (BROWNRIGG/EC 1992 WORKING GROUP MEETING) (LOU) UNITED TECHNOLOGIES' PLAN TO USE SOVIET ROCKETS. SECRET PAGE 07 STATE 221038 UT OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN MAKING PRESENTATIONS TO ADMINISTRATION AND CONGRESSIONAL OFFICIALS ON A PROPOSED SPACE LAUNCH SERVICES PROJECT. IN SHORT, A GROUP OF AUSTRALIAN BUSINESSMEN WISH TO IMPORT SOVIET ROCKETS AND, WITH UT MANAGERIAL AND TECHNICAL EXPERTISE, OFFER AN ALTERNATIVE SATELLITE LAUNCHING SERVICE. THE PAYLOADS THE GROUP WOULD ATTRACT WOULD MOST LIKELY CUT INTO ARIANESPACE'S MARKET. ACCORDING TO USTR, UT WOULD HAVE TO APPLY FOR AN EXPORT LICENSE (FOR ITS SERVICES) AND THE COMPANY IS TRYING TO TEST THE WATERS (CHILLY, SO FAR) . ( BROWNRIGG/USTR MEETING ON EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY) END EUR/RPE B EG (C) EUR/RPM OPEN SKIES INITIATIVE MAKING PROGRESS UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 THE OPEN SKIES INITIATIVE WORKING GROUP IS CONTINUING ITS EFFORTS (TASKED IN NSD 15) TO DEVELOP INSPECTION AND CONSULTATION OPTIONS. THE GOAL IS TO PROVIDE (BY FRIDAY) AN AGREED PAPER TO THE PCC THAT LISTS OPTIONS AND CONTAINS A PLAN FOR CONSULTATIONS ON THE INITIATIVE. THE CURRENT DRAFT OUTLINES FOUR OPEN SKIES REGIME OPTIONS, RANGING FROM A HIGHLY INTRUSIVE REGIME WITH ALMOST NO CONSTRAINTS ON OVERFLIGHTS TO A VERY LIMITED REGIME. OSD FAVORS A HIGHLY INTRUSIVE REGIME. OTHER AGENCIES INDICATED INFORMALLY SUPPORT FOR MORE MODERATE OVERFLIGHT REGIMES. OTHER KEY UNRESOLVED ISSUES INCLUDE NATIONAL PARTICIPATION (OUTSIDE OF NATO AND THE PACT) AND WHO WILL HOST AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE INITIATIVE. ONCE THE U.S. APPROACH IS AGREED DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED TO NATO (PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK). AT SOME LATER POINT THE SOVIETS WILL ALSO BE BRIEFED. (CISSNA; WG MEETING 7/13) SECRET PAGE 08 (C) STATE 221038 TAFT CONFIRMATION HEARING SET THE SFRC HAS SCHEDULED A CONFIRMATION HEARING ON JULY 19 FOR NATO AMBASSADOR-DESIGNATE WILL TAFT. SENATOR BIDEN, CHAIRMAN OF THE EUROPEAN SUBCOMMITTEE, WILL PRESIDE. (HALL; CALL FROM H) 1.4(D) B1 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 ___________________ ' ___________________ |(TRACY END EUR/RPM 1.4(D) B1 BEGIN EUR/SE: GREECE SECRET PAGE 09 STATE 221038 (C) MITSOTAKIS GIVES ASSURANCES ON U.S. BASES, RASHID AND COUNTER-TERRORISM: NEW DEMOCRACY LEADER MITSOTAKIS ASSURED AMBASSADOR KEELEY JULY 12 IN THE COURSE OF A FAREWELL CALL THAT IF ND FORMS A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT AFTER THE OCTOBER ELECTIONS, IT WILL ACT QUICKLY ON A NEW AGREEMENT FOR THE U.S. BASES. HE ALSO GAVE UNEQUIVOCAL ASSURANCES THAT RASHID WILL NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, BE SET FREE BY THE INTERIM TZANNETAKIS GOVERNMENT. MITSOTAKIS SAID HE EXPECTS "NO PROBLEM" WITH N D 'S LEFT ALLIANCE COLLABORATORS ON FOREIGN POLICY SINCE "WE DON'T EVEN TALK TO THEM" ABOUT THESE BEGIN EUR/SOV: (LOU) CSCE COMMISSION HEARING ON PSYCHIATRISTS' VISIT: AT THIS AFTERNOON'S HEARING, THE U.S. TEAM THAT INVESTIGATED SOVIET PSYCHIATRIC PRACTICES PRESENTED ITS REPORT. DICK SCHIFTER (A COMMISSIONER) AND HA'S BILL FARRAND PUT THE VISIT IN ITS HISTORICAL CONTEXT, AND TWO OF THE PSYCHIATRISTS COMMENTED ON THE SCIENTIFIC FINDINGS AND ON SOVIET DIAGNOSTIC PRACTICES (THESE STILL RESULT IN 75 PERCENT OF SOVIET COMMITMENTS BEING FOR SCHIZOPHRENIA, COMPARED WITH A RATE OF 25 PERCENT IN THIS COUNTRY). PETER REDDAWAY OF GW UNIVERSITY, A RECOGNIZED EXPERT ON SOVIET PSYCHIATRIC ABUSE, DELIVERED A STINGING ATTACK ON SECRET PAGE 10 STATE 221038 THE TOP OFFICIALS OF THE SOVIET PSYCHIATRIC ESTABLISHMENT AND WAS JOINED BY SENATOR HEINZ IN URGING THAT THE WORLD UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 1.4(D) B1 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07300 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 03/04/2012 PSYCHIATRIC ASSOCIATION NOT/NOT READMIT THE SOVIETS AT ITS OCTOBER MEETING IN ATHENS. THE SOVIETS WON PRAISE FOR HAVING GRANTED UNPRECEDENTED OPENNESS TO THE AMERICAN TEAM, AND FOR HAVING ACCEPTED THE REPORT AS A SERIOUS PIECE OF WORK THAT POINTED UP SOME PROBLEMS IN NEED OF URGENT ATTENTION. (EVANS, HEARING) (U) SOVIETS CHANGE EXIT PROCEDURES - THE SOVIETS HAVE ANNOUNCED THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE EMIGRATING NO LONGER HAVE TO GIVE UP APARTMENTS AND JOBS WHEN THEY RECEIVE EXIT PERMISSION, BUT RATHER ONLY WHEN THEY RECEIVE VISAS TO ENTER A RECEIVING COUNTRY. THIS CHANGE IN PROCEDURE COMES ABOUT LARGELY AS A RESULT OF U.S. COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE DIFFICULTIES SOVIET CITIZENS ENCOUNTER WHEN ISSUANCE OF ENTRY VISAS IS DELAYED. WE HAVE BEEN URGING PEOPLE TO DELAY APPLICATION FOR EXIT PERMISSION UNTIL THEY HAVE RECEIVED PERMISSION FROM THE U.S. TO TRAVEL. WE WILL BE DISCUSSING THIS ISSUE WITH EMBASSY MOSCOW TO SEE IF THE CHANGE IN PROCEDURE WILL ALLOW US AGAIN TO REQUIRE THAT APPLICANTS HAVE EXIT PERMISSION, THUS INSURING THAT WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENGAGE IN TIME-CONSUMING PROCESSING OF PEOPLE WHOM THE SOVIETS MAY NEVER ALLOW TO LEAVE. (MAYHEW, MOSCOW 18415) -- UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 1.4(D) B1 UN C LAS S IFIED U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. h -2 u iu -u /y u u Doc No. U1 fs m s f f Date: Uy/U4/^U1^ PAGE 12 STATE 221038 (LOU) US-SOVIET AGRICULTURAL COOPERATION PLANNING MEETING TODAY'S INTERAGENCY PLANNING MEETING ON U.S.-SOVIET AGRICULTURAL COOPERATION (CHAIRED BY USDA) PRODUCED A TIMETABLE FOR PREPARATIONS FOR THE DECEMBER MEETING OF THE U.S.-USSR JOINT COMMITTEE IN MOSCOW. THE DOCUMENT PROVIDES FOR A GREATLY ENHANCED ROLE FOR THE STATE DEPARTMENT IN FORMULATING AND APPROVING U.S. AND SOVIET PROGRAM PROPOSALS. (NEILL, MEETING) (U) SST EXCHANGE ACTIVITIES IN FULL SWING OES-CHAIRED TODAY'S INTERAGENCY WORKING GROUP ON SOVIET SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (GOSSAT), AT WHICH N S F , DOE AND NAS SPOKE ON THEIR MOST RECENT S&T EXCHANGE ACTIVITIES WITH THE SOVIETS. NSF DIRECTOR BLOCH JUST RETURNED FROM A FAMILIARIZATION VISIT DURING WHICH HE VISITED PHYSICS INSTITUTES IN CHERNOGOLOVKA, A CITY WHICH WAS, UNTIL RECENTLY, CLOSED TO WESTERNERS. BLOCH FELT HE HAD BEEN SHOWN THE BEST AND THE WORST OF SOVIET SCIENCE. HE WAS IMPRESSED WITH THE ATMOSPHERE OF "CHANGE AND OPENNESS" IN THE SOVIET SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 1 ,4(U ) B1 UN C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 INCLUDING THE HERETOFORE REJECTED POSSIBILITY OF ADAPTING NSF'S COMPETITIVE GRANT SYSTEM FOR USE IN THE USSR. ALTHOUGH THE SOVIETS DID NOT PROPOSE NEW RESEARCH TOPICS, TH3Y EXPRESSED INTEREST IN A JOINT PROGRAM ON ARCTIC SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH, A PREVIOUSLY TABOO SUBJECT. - DELEGATIONS FROM NAS AND THE SOVIET ACADEMY OF SECRET PAGE 13 STATE 221038 SCIENCES HAVE FORMED A SPECIAL INTERACADEMY COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL ECOLOGY. THE ONLY PREVIOUS SUCH COMMITTEE WAS ESTABLISHED YEARS AGO TO ADDRESS ARMS CONTROL ISSUES. THE COMMITTEE PLANS TO INTERACT WITH S&T POLICYMAKERS BILATERALLY AND MULT ILATERALLY ON GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES. THE NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION AND THE SOVIET KURCHATOV INSTITUTE FOR ATOMIC ENERGY HAVE BEGUN A PRECEDENT-SETTING INSPECTOR EXCHANGE PROGRAM. U.S. INSPECTORS WILL SPEND TWO WEEKS EXAMINING SAFETY FEATURES OF THE ZAPOROZHYE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT. DOE IS LOOKING AT PROPOSALS FOR POSSIBLE RENEWAL OF THE NON-NUCLEAR ENERGY COOPERATION AGREEMENT BUT IS NOT PROMISING MAJOR DEVELOP MENTS IN THE SHORT TERM. (STEPANCHUK/SMITH, MEETING) (U) PROJECT HOPE SENDS MEDICAL TEAM TO YEREVAN AS PART OF ITS $5 MILLION PEDIATRIC REHABILITATION PROJECT IN ARMENIA, PROJECT HOPE IS SENDING ITS FIRST LONG-TERM MEDICAL REHABILITATION TEAM TO YEREVAN THIS EVENING. THE TEAM CONSISTS OF A NURSE, TWO PHYSICAL THERAPISTS AND ONE OCCUPATIONAL THERAPIST. TEAM MEMBERS WILL STAY IN YEREVAN FOR UP TO ONE YEAR. THE TEAM WILL CHECK IN WITH OUR EMBASSY BEFORE PROCEEDING TO ARMENIA, WHERE ROOM AND BOARD WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE SOVIETS. (PETTIT, PHONE CALL) (C) WILL GORBACHEV OUST LENINGRAD PARTY BOSS SOLOVYEV? GORBACHEV ARRIVED IN LENINGRAD JULY 11, ACCOMPANIED BY CADRE CHIEF RAZUMOVSKIY, TO MEET WITH THE LOCAL PARTY LEADERSHIP. THE PURPOSE OF THE VISIT WAS RUMORED TO BE A SHAKE-UP OF THE LENINGRAD PARTY. LOCAL PARTY BOSS SOLOVYEV, WHO WAS RESOUNDINGLY REJECTED BY THE VOTERS ON MARCH 25 WHEN HE RAN UNOPPOSED FOR A SEAT IN THE CONGRESS SECRET PAGE 14 STATE 221038 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. h-^uiu-u/yuu Uoc No. C l /bBfcjiJ/( Date: Uy/U4/2U12 OF PEOPLE'S DEPUTIES, WOULD LIKELY BE THE CHIEF VICTIM OF SUCH A RESHUFFLE. IF SOLOVYEV'S POLITICAL CAREER IS, INDEED, CUT SHORT, EMBASSY MOSCOW BELIEVES SEVERAL OTHER LENINGRAD PARTY MEMBERS WILL GO WITH HIM. THE ANTI-REFORM NATURE OF THE LENINGRAD PARTY LEADERSHIP AND ITS EVIDENT MISMANAGEMENT OF THE CITY MAKE IT AN APPEALING TARGET FOR GORBACHEV. (RUBIN, MOSCOW CABLES) END EUR/SOV BEGIN EUR/WE (LOU) SPAIN: DOD OBJECTS TO RETROACTIVE CONGRESSIONAL BAN ON SEVERANCE PAY WITH REGARD TO BASE CLOSINGS DOD HAS NOW FORMALLY OBJECTED TO LANGUAGE IN THE HOUSE AUTHORIZATION BILL WHICH WOULD PROHIBIT THE PAYMENT OF SEVERANCE PAY BY THE U.S. IN CONNECTION WITH BASE CLOSINGS CARRIED OUT AT THE BEHEST OF ANOTHER GOVERNMENT. AS PRESENTLY DRAFTED, THE BILL WOULD FORCE US TO RENEGE ON OUR COMMITMENT--SPELLED OUT IN A SIDE LETTER TO THE NEW BASE AGREEMENT--TO PAY SEVERANCE TO SPANISH WORKERS R I F 'D IN CONNECTION WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE 401ST TACTICAL FIGHTER WING FROM TORREJON. DOD HAS RECOMMENDED TO OMB THAT THE ADMINISTRATION PROPOSE THE LANGUAGE BE AMENDED TO MAKE THE MEASURE PROSPECTIVE RATHER THAN RETROACTIVE, THUS ENABLING US TO MEET OUR COMMITMENT IN SPAIN. IT IS THE UNDERSTANDING OF DOD STAFF THAT THE HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE DID NOT INTEND TO APPLY THE PROVISION TO TORREJON, ALTHOUGH THE LANGUAGE IS CLEAR. WE WEIGHED IN TO SUPPORT D O D 'S OBJECTION WHEN CONTACTED BY L/PM IN RESPONSE TO AN INFORMAL QUERY FROM OMB. (SWIGERT/TELCONS WITH DOD AND L) SECRET PAGE 15 (C) STATE PORTUGAL: 221038 CAVACO SILVA ACCEPTS INVITATION PRIME MINISTER CAVACO SILVA WAS EXTREMELY PLEASED TO BE INVITED FOR AN OFFICIAL WORKING VISIT IN JANUARY. HIS OFFICE SUGGESTED THAT SOMETIME DURING THE LAST THIRD OF JANUARY WOULD BE THE MOST CONVENIENT FOR CAVACO SILVA. THE PRIME MINISTER HAS ASKED THAT WE HOLD CLOSELY THE INVITATION AND HIS ACCEPTANCE UNTIL DETAILS FOR AN ANNOUNCEMENT ARE WORKED OUT. (CASWELL/LISBON 5833) (LOU) FRANCE: PRIVATE VISIT BY PM ROCARD NEXT WEEK UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 PM MICHEL ROCARD WILL VISIT BOHEMIAN GROVE, CALIFORNIA JULY 21-22 AS A GUEST OF HENRY KISSINGER. ROCARD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIS ADVISOR, GUY CARCASSONNE. THE EMBASSY HAS REQUESTED SECRET SERVICE PROTECTION, BUT NO OTHER USG INVOLVEMENT IS EXPECTED. (LEADER/PHONE AND DIP NOTE) (C) ITALY: BIDDING ON 401ST TFW CONSTRUCTION ITALY IS SEEKING NATO AGREEMENT FOR A WAIVER OF INTERNATIONAL BIDDING (ICB) ON THE FIRST PHASE OF CROTONE CONSTRUCTION, NOTING PERCEIVED EARLIER UNDERSTANDINGS, THE DELAY INVOLVED IN INVOKING ICB AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE EARLY CONSTRUCTION (ROADS, UTILITY HOOK-UPS) WOULD BE PERFORMED BY ITALIAN GOVERNMENT MONOPOLIES. WHILE THIS FIRST PHASE HAS SO FAR GENERATED LIMITED INTEREST FROM US FIRMS, AND ITALIAN FIRMS WOULD HAVE THE CLEAR COMPETITIVE EDGE, DOD IS UNWILLING TO AGREE TO THE WAIVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT CONGRESSIONAL FUNDING SITUATION AND INTEREST IN US FIRMS' ABILITY TO BID ON OVERSEAS MILITARY CONSTRUCTION, PLUS BROADER NATO CONSIDERATIONS. DOD AND WE HAVE INSTRUCTED USNATO THAT ITALY-ONLY NATIONAL BIDDING IS UNACCEPTABLE, AND THAT THE ALLIES SECRET PAGE 16 STATE 221038 WOULD HAVE TO AGREE TO AN ITALIAN PROPOSAL ALLOWING FAIR TREATMENT FOR US FIRMS BIDDING UNDER ITALIAN NATIONAL RULES. EMBASSY ROME WARNS THAT THIS ISSUE COULD CAUSE SERIOUS REPERCUSSIONS WITH THE GOI. (SNIDER/ROME 14485, USNATO 3785) END EUR/WE EAGLEBURGER SECRET << END OF DOCUMENT >> UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686377 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department ot State uase n o . i- - ^ u lu -u /y u u uoc in o . o i / d o d j / o u a ic . u a u 4 i ^ u i ^ CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 0 1 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 03965 121725Z LOG-OO NSCE-00 PA-01 P-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO H-01 NSAE-00 SSO-OO HA-09 L-03 TRSE-00 PM-10 OMB-Ol INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 SNP-01 PRS-01 T-01 /039 W ------------------ 336716 130308Z /72 O 121650Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN (RELEASED IN FULL| TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 24 72 C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 03965 E.O. 12356: DEC L : OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH POLITICAL SCENE: PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY RE-ELECTED REF: DUBLIN 3791 1. (C--ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY HAS WON HIS PROTRACTED BATTLE TO BE RE-ELECTED PRIME MINISTER BUT THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS SEEM TO BE THE REAL WINNERS. HAUGHEY WAS RE-ELECTED PRIME MINISTER THIS AFTERNOON BY A VOTE OF 84-79, WITH THE SIX VOTES OF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS SUPPLYING THE MARGIN OF VICTORY. THE PARLIAMENT HAS BEEN ADJOURNED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING TO ALLOW HAUGHEY TO BE FORMALLY APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT. AT THAT TIME, HAUGHEY WILL PRESENT THE MEMBERS OF HIS NEW CABINET, AND THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM WORKED OUT BETWEEN HIM AND DENSIE O'MALLEY, LEADER OF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS, WILL BE MADE PUBLIC. PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS THE WINNERS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 03965 121725Z 3. THOUGH ALL THE DETAILS OF THE HARD-FOUGHT NEGOTIATIONS WILL NOT BECOME CLEAR UNTIL LATER (A DETAILED ANALYSIS WILL FOLLOW SEPTEL), IT IS jREVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686378 Date: 09/04/2012 |<< i ^ UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686378 Date: 09/04/2012 CLEAR THAT THE REAL VICTORS ARE THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS. FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON'S VOTE, O'MALLEY FULLY BRIEFED THE AMBASSADOR ON THE EXTENT OF HIS VICTORY. AGAINST ALL PROGNOSTICATIONS BY THE PUNDITS, O'MALLEY NOT ONLY FORCED HAUGHEY TO BE THE FIRST-EVER FIANNA FAIL PRIME MINISTER TO LEAD HIS PARTY INTO A COALITION BUT ALSO FORCED HIM TO CONCEDE TWO SEATS AT THE CABINET TABLE, PLUS A JUNIOR MINISTER POSITION, TO THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS DESPITE THEIR HAVING ONLY SIX DEPUTIES AGAINST 77 FOR FIANNA FAIL. 4. THE PD NEGOTIATORS HAD THE STRONG ARGUMENT THAT A SOLE PD MINISTER WOULD BE ISOLATED AND, HENCE, INEFFECTIVE IN PROTECTING THE POLICY AGREEMENTS (O'MALLEY WAS PERSONALLY APPREHENSIVE ABOUT BEING ALONE IN A HAUGHEY CABINET OF YES-MEN). AGAINST THIS WAS THE RISING TIDE OF FIANNA FAIL RANK-AND-FILE ANGER AT SEETING THE RENEGADE P D 'S REWARDED ABOVE THOSE WHO HAD REMAINED LOYAL TO THE PARTY. IN THE END, AND LITERALLY AT THE ELEVENTH HOUR BEFORE THE PARLIAMENT CAME INTO SESSION THIS AFTERNOON, HAUGHEY CONCEDED. O'MALLEY WILL GO TO INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE (A JOB HE HAS HELD BEFORE), BOBBY MOLLOY TO ENERGY, AND MARY HARNEY WILL GET AN ENHANCED JUNIOR MINISTERSHIP IN ENVIRONMENT (A DEPARTMENT WHICH PERFORMS MANY OF THE FUNCTIONS OF AN INTERIOR MINISTRY IN OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, INCLUDING THE ORGANIZATION OF ELECTIONS). CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 03965 121725Z 5. THESE ARE ALL POWERFUL POSITIONS OF PARTICULAR VALUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS AND THEIR PRINCIPLED STANCE OF GOVERNMENTAL RECTITUDE. AT INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE, O'MALLEY WILL NOW BE ABLE TO PURSUE HIS CAMPAIGN AGAINST SEEMING-CORRUPTION IN THE BEEF EXPORT TRADE, AND AT ENVIRONMENT HARNEY WILL HAVE IN HER HANDS THE ABILITY TO ACT ON THE ISSUES OF NATIONAL LOTTERY FUNDING AND THE RE-DRAWING OF THE CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES. IN SHORT, AT FIRST LOOK, HAUGHEY WOULD SEEM TO HAVE CONCEDED TO PD PRESSURE ACROSS THE BOARD. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686378 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686378 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686378 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 1 7 6 8 6 3 /9 Date: Uy/U4/^U1^ ?j>> ^ SECRET PAGE 01 DUBLIN ACTION NODS-00 INFO 02054 041300Z LOG-00 ADS-00 /000 W ------------------ 115532 O 041256Z APR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1883 S E C R E T NOD IS 041302Z /41 DUBLIN 02054 [d ECAPTIONEPI E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, El, UR, XK SUBJECT: LETTER FROM PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY TO PRESIDENT BUSH REF: STATE 101365 1. (S--ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. FOLLOWING IS TEXT OF LETTER FROM IRISH PM HAUGHEY TO PRESIDENT BUSH PRESENTED TO AMBASSADOR HECKLER IN ANSWER TO THE PRESIDENT'S LETTER (REFTEL) REQUESTING HAUGHEY RAISE CENTRAL AMERICA AT HIS APRIL 2 MEETING WITH GORBACHEV. 3. BEGIN TEXT: 3 APRIL, 198 9 THE HONOURABLE GEORGE BUSH, THE PRESIDENT, THE WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON DC. [RELEASED iN FULLJ DEAR MR. PRESIDENT, SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02054 041300Z THANK YOU FOR YOUR LETTER WHICH I RECEIVED ON 1ST APRIL ON U.S. POLICY TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA. I NOTE THAT SECRETARY BAKER WILL BE WRITING SHORTLY TO THE TANAISTE, [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer| UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686379 Date: 09/04/2012 (j UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. Cl/'SBb3<,y Date: uy/u4/^u iz BRIAN LENIHAN, SETTING OUT YOUR VIEWS IN MORE DETAIL. AT THIS STAGE I SHOULD LIKE TO INFORM YOU IN RESPONSE TO YOUR LETTER THAT I AVAILED OF THE OCCASION OF MY TALKS WITH PRESIDENT GORBACHEV TO CONVEY TO HIM EMPHATICALLY OUR INTEREST IN GOOD SOVIET-AMERICAN RELATIONS. I EXPRESSED TO HIM OUR SATISFACTION THAT THESE RELATIONS HAD PROGRESSED VERY FAVOURABLY RECENTLY AND OUR HOPE THAT DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL NOT PUT ANY OBSTACLE IN THE WAY OF THEIR FURTHER FAVOURABLE DEVELOPMENT. IN HIS RESPONSE, PRESIDENT GORBACHEV EXPRESSED HIS HOPES FOR THE FAVOURABLE DEVELOPMENT OF HIS BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES AND SOME WORRY WHICH HE HAD IN THIS REGARD, WHICH I HAVE HAD CONVEYED TO YOUR EMBASSY HERE. I GREATLY APPRECIATED THE OPPORTUNITY TO CALL ON YOU ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY AND I THANK YOU WARMLY FOR THE COURTESY AND KINDNESS WITH WHICH YOU RECEIVED ME. I VERY MUCH APPRECIATED OUR EXCHANGE OF VIEWS AND I LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU IN IRELAND ON A FUTURE OCCASION. YOURS SINCERELY, CHARLES J. HAUGHEY. END TEXT. SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 DUBLIN 02054 041300Z HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686379 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686379 Date: 09/U4/2U11 SECRET NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686379 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686380 Date: 09/04/2012 PAGE 01 ACTION SS-00 DUBLIN 01701 151549Z INFO LOG-OO ADS-00 SSO-OO ( AS-01 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSCE-00 INRE-00 )/000 W ------------------ 372631 151858Z /38 O 151517Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 17 91 ______________ [r e l e a s e d in f u l l ) C O N F I D E N T I A L EXDIS DUBLIN 01701 DECAPTIONED E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: OVIP (HAUGHEY, CHARLES J ) , EAIR, El SUBJECT: HAUGHEY VISIT TO U.S.: CIVIL AVIATION REF: DUBLIN 1675 1. (C-ENTIRE TEXT). 2. IN ADDITION TO SUBJECTS REFTEL, HAUGHEY PLANS TO RAISE BILATERAL CIVIL AVIATION RELATIONS WITH SECRETARY BAKER. DURING A MEETING AT THE AIRPORT PRIOR TO HIS DEPARTURE THIS MORNING, HAUGHEY PROMISED AER LINGUS OFFICIALS HE WOULD RAISE AER LINGUS REQUEST FOR RIGHTS TO SERVE LOS ANGELES DURING HIS MEETING TOMORROW WITH SECRETARY BAKER. AER LINGUS OFFICIALS URGED HAUGHEY TO ARGUE THAT AER LINGUS GETS LESS FAVORABLE TREATMENT THAN THE DUTCH, PORTUGUESE AND SWISS NATIONAL AIRLINES EVEN THOUGH THOSE COUNTRIES ARE "LESS OPEN" TO U.S. AIRLINES THAN IRELAND. 3. WHILE WE DOUBT HAUGHEY WILL WANT TO GO INTO THE DETAILS OF OUR ON-GOING NEGOTIATIONS, HE WILL WANT TO RAISE THE ISSUE TO A MORE POLITICAL LEVEL. CURRAN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01701 151549Z CONFIDENTIAL << END OF DOCUMENT >> [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer! UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686380 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LAS SIFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ORIGIN EUR-00 INFO STATE 097579 LOG-00 ADS-00 AID-00 INR-07 NSCE-00 NSAE-00 COME-OO SSO-OO FAAE-00 CEA-01 DOTE-OO OMB-Ol FRB-03 OPM-Ol JUSE-00 SP-02 /040 R DRAFTED BY: EUR/NE:KLONGMYER:LP APPROVED BY: THE SECRETARY EUR/:RLRIDGWAY C:NBURNS S/S:MLEVITSKY EUR/SOV:ISILINS SS-00 LAB-04 STR-17 C-01 EB-00 TRSE-00 INRE-00 T-01 (203S) EUR/NE:EMHEAPHY S/S-O:JCARRAGHER EB/TRA:JBAY EUR/RPE: MTOKOLA - 100611 291901Z /44 - P 291829Z MAR 89 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY DUBLIN PRIORITY INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L CIAE-00 CTME-00 SIL-01 E-01 RELEASED IN FULL STATE 097579 BRUSSELS FOR USEC E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, El, EC, UR, EAIR, E CON, UK SUBJECT: SECRETARY'S MEETING WITH IRISH PRIME MINISTER 1. (C-ENTIRE TEXT). SUMMARY 2. THE PRIME MINISTER OF IRELAND, CHARLES HAUGHEY, ON MARCH 16 DISCUSSED, THE IRISH ECONOMY, IRELAND'S ROLE IN THE EC, EFFORTS TO PURSUE A DIALOGUE WITH NORTHERN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 STATE 097579 IRELAND UNIONISTS, SUPER ROYALTIES, INVESTMENTS, AND WEST COAST LANDING SECRETARY BAKER. HAUGHEY SAID THAT EC, IRELAND WOULD WORK FOR AMICABLE REVIEW AUTHORITY: PASSIVE RIGHTS WITH AS PRESIDENT OF THE SOLUTIONS TO ANY Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 E12 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 U.S.- EC DIFFERENCES AND RESIST PROTECTIONISM. THE SECRETARY WELCOMED HAUGHEY'S REMARKS ON THE NEED TO OPPOSE TRADE BARRIERS. HE A SO SAID THAT THE U.S. HOPED GORBACHEV WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL WITH HIS EFFORTS TO REFORM THE SOVIET ECONOMY AND POLITICAL SYSTEM BUT THAT THIS DEPENDED ON SOVIET ACTIONS AND NOT ON WHAT THE WEST MIGHT DO. HAUGHEY ENDORSED THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT AS "A PLUS", BUT THE INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR IRELAND WAS NOT MENTIONED. END SUMMARY 3. UNDER SECRETARY FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS ROBERT KIMMITT, COUNSELOR ROBERT ZOELLICK, ASSISTANT SECRETARY MARGARET TUTWILER, AMBASSADOR MARGARET HECKLER, AND DESK OFFICER KENNETH LONGMYER (NOTETAKER) ALSO PARTICIPATED IN THE MEETING. IRISH PARTICIPANTS WERE MFA SECRETARY NOEL DORR, SECRETARY TO THE PRIME MINISTER PADRAIC O. HUIGINN, AMBASSADOR PADRAIC MACKERNAN, AND POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARTIN BURKE. U.S.-IRISH RELATIONS 4. THE PRIME MINISTER BEGAN HIS MEETING WITH THE SECRETARY BY PAYING TRIBUTE TO FRIENDLY AND STABLE U.S.-IRISH RELATIONS WHICH HE SAID WERE FREE OF ANY GREAT PROBLEMS. THE IRISH ECONOMY 5. HAUGHEY REVIEWED HIS GOVERNMENT'S ECONOMIC CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 STATE 097579 SUCCESSES, REPORTING THAT INFLATION HAD BEEN REDUCED TO 2 PERCENT AND INTEREST RATES TO 6 POINTS BELOW THOSE IN THE U.K. HE SAID THAT ANNUA GROWTH HAD REACHED 3-3.5 PERCENT AND THAT IRELAND HAD A SURPLUS IN ITS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS. HE REGRETTED THAT IRELAND'S ECONOMIC SUCCESSES HAD NOT LED TO SUFFICIENT JOB CREATION. CONSEQUENTLY, IRELAND HAD AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 18 PERCENT WHICH LED MANY YOUNG PEOPLE TO EMIGRATE. THE PRIME MINISTER ASKED FOR THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S INDULGENCE ON THE ISSUE OF ILLEGAL IRISH RESIDENTS IN THE U.S. THE EC 6. SAYING THAT IRELAND HAD NOTHING TO GAIN FROM UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 uiN L/LA tj?> intu u.vs. uepanment ot t>tate uase no. r-z u iu -u /y u u uoc ino. o i/o o o o o i uaie: u>>/u^/zu iz PROTECTIONISM, HAUGHEY PROMISED THAT IRELAND, WHICH WILL ASSUME ITS TURN AS EC PRESIDENT IN JANUARY 1990, WOULD RESIST ANY "FORTRESS OF EUROPE" MENTALITY AND WORK TO RESOLVE AMICABLY ANY DIFFICULTIES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE U.S. HAUGHEY SAID THAT THE EC DECISION TO CREATE A SINGLE MARKET COULD WORK TO THE ADVANTAGE OF U.S. FIRMS, SINCE ONCE U.S. FIRMS GOT INSIDE, THEY WOULD HAVE FULL ACCESS TO ALL EC MEMBER COUNTRIES. 7. THE SECRETARY RESPONDED THAT HE WAS PLEASED TO HEAR THE PRIME MINISTER'S VIEWS ON THE EC. HE SAID THAT THE U.S. WELCOMED THE EC DECISION TO ELIMINATE INTERNAL BARRIERS AND THAT WE HOPED THAT THE DECISION WOULD NOT STRENGTHEN PROTECTIONISM, WHICH HE CHARACTERIZED AS THE GREAEST THREAT TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE. THE SECRETARY SAID THAT THE POLITICAL WILL TO RESIST PROTECTIONISM EXISTED IN THE U.S. BUT ONLY IF OTHER COUNTRIES WERE ALSO ABLE TO RESIST PROTECTIONIST PRESSURES. HE ADDED THAT THE U.S. WOULD WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE WHAT THE EC DOES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 STATE 097579 8. OBSERVING THAT AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES WERE A MAJOR BARRIER TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE, THE SECRETARY INQUIRED ABOUT IRISH POLICIES IN THAT AREA. HAUGHEY REPLIED THAT IRISH AGRICULTURE, WHICH EMPLOYED 20 PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE, WAS HEAVILY SUBSIDIZED, AND ADDED THAT THE REDUCTION OF EC SUBSIDIES HAD CAUSED IRISH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10 PERCENT. NORTHERN IRELAND _ ~ I 9. HAUGHEY SAID THAT THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN IRELAND AND THE UK ON WHAT THE ANGLO-IRISH ACCORD SHOULD ACHIEVE BUT THAT ON THE WHOLE THE AGREEMENT WAS "A PLUS". HE ADDED THAT HE HAD BEEN URGING UNIONIST LEADERS TO DISCUSS WITH HIM HOW THE DISAPPEARANCE OF INTERNAL EC BORDERS IN 1992 WOULD AFFECT BOTH PARTS OF IRELAND. HE SAID THAT THE UNIONISTS APPARENTLY LACKED THE CONFIDENCE TO RESPOND OPENLY AND POSITIVELY TO HIS OVERTURES. SUPER ROYALTIES AND PASSIVE FOREIGN INVESTMENT COMPANIES UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 U N U L A S S lN tD U.S. Department or state uase No. t-^ u iu -u /y u u uoc no. u i/ b e e je i 10. HAUGHEY SAID THAT U.S. INVESTMENT IN IRELAND PROVIDED EMPLOYMENT FOR 38,000 PEOPLE, ACCOUNTED FOR 18 PERCENT OF IRELAND'S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, AND PROVIDED A 22 PERCENT RETURN. HE SAID THAT UNFORTUNATELY THE 198 6 TAX REFORM ACT'S PROVISIONS ON SUPER ROYALTIES AND PASSIVE INVESTMENTS WORKED AGAINST KEEPING PROFITS IN IRELAND WHERE THEY COULD BE REINVESTED. HE SAID THAT IN CONSIDERING THIS ISSUE, U.S. OFFICIALS SHOULD TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AMERICA'S DOLLARS 1 BILLION TRADE SURPLUS WITH IRELAND. CONFIDENTIAL uate: uy/u4/^u I^ CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 05 STATE 097579 11. THE SECRETARY RESPONDED THAT HE FELT A "LITTLE GUILTY SINCE HE HAD SHEPHERDED THE TAX REFORM THROUGH CONGRESS." HE SAID THAT WE WOULD WORK WITH AMBASSADOR MACKERNAN ON THE ISSUE AND ADVISED HAUGHEY TO DISCUSS THE MATTER WITH TREASURY SECRETARY BRADY. LANDING RIGHTS FOR AER LINGUS 12. HAUGHEY SAID THAT AFTER THE WAR, IRELAND CONCLUDED WITH THE U.S. A GENEROUS CIVIL AVIATION TREATY WHICH WAS WORKING TO IRELAND'S DISADVANTAGE NOW THAT IRELAND WANTED LANDING RIGHTS IN CALIFORNIA FOR AER LINGUS. 13. THE SECRETARY REPLIED THAT THE U.S. RESPONSE TO THE IRISH REQUEST WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE HAD CONCLUDED A REVIEW OF OUR AVIATION POLICY. HE PROMISED, HOWEVER, THAT THE U.S. WOULD REMEMBER IRELAND'S CONCERNS. THE SOVIET UNION 14. THE SECRETARY SAID THAT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOVIET UNION WERE INTERESTING BUT THEIR OUTCOME WAS UNCERTAIN. HE SAID THAT THE U.S. BELIEVED THAT GORBACHEV MEANS WHAT HE SAYS BUT THERE WAS A SERIOUS QUESTION IF HE WOULD SUCCEED, SINCE OPPOSITION WAS GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS, THE CHANGES IN EASTERN EUROPE HAD BEEN GREAT, AND POLITICAL REFORMS HAD BEEN MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN ECONOMIC ONES. HE SAID THAT WHILE SOME AMERICANS BELIEVED THAT IT WAS IN THE U.S. INTEREST FOR GORBACHEV'S EFFORTS TO FAIL, THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION HOPED THAT GORBACHEV WOULD SUCCEED, BUT THAT WOULD DEPEND ON THE SOVIETS. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C l 7686381 Date: 09/04/2012 15. THE SECRETARY SAID THE U.S. WAS WATCHING SOVIET CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 0 6 STATE 097579 INITIATIVES TOWARDS IRAN AND ELSEWHERE BUT WE WOULD RESERVE JUDGMENT UNTIL WE SAW SUBSTANTIVE RESULTS ON REGIONAL ISSUES. THE SOVIETS, WHO HAD NOT ABANDONED THE BREZHNEV DOCTRINE IN SOME AREAS, SHOULD RECOGNIZE ISRAEL'S RIGHT TO EXIST, WITHDRAW SUPPORT FROM PALESTINIAN TERRORIST GROUPS BASED IN SYRIA, AND END SOVIET ASSISTANCE TO NICARAGUA. 16. THE SECRETARY ALSO SAID THAT THE U.S. WELCOMED THE WARSAW PACT'S RECENT ARMS CONTROL PROPOSALS, WHICH HE DESCRIBED AS CLOSE TO NATO POSITIONS, AND THAT WE HOPED TO LET THE SOVIETS KNOW AT THE MAY MINISTERIAL IN MOSCOW WHEN THE U.S. WOULD BE READY TO RESUME NEGOTIATIONS. 17. AMBASSADOR HECKLER AFFIRMED THE CLOSE TIES BETWEEN IRELAND AND THE U.S. AND VOICED CONFIDENCE IN IRELAND'S ABILITY AND READINESS TO PLAY A POSITIVE ROLE IN THE RESOLUTION OF TROUBLESOME U.S.- EC ISSUES. BAKER CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 NN N N UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686381 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686382 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 00367 181652Z LOG-OO CPR-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 H-01 NSCE-00 INRE-00 USSS-00 DS-01 /012 W ------------------ 125073 192149Z /72 R 181642Z JAN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1430 C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 00367 PA-01 [RELEASED IN FULL! 1 ------------- 1 - E.O. 12356: DECL : OADR TAGS: OVIP (HAUGHEY, CHARLES J.), El SUBJECT: HAUGHEY ST. PATRICK'S DAY VISIT TO U.S. 1. (C-ENTIRE TEXT). 2. WE WERE INFORMED TODAY BY A SOURCE IN THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE THAT IRISH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY HAS DECIDED TO ACCEPT SPEAKER JIM WRIGHT'S INVITATION TO VISIT WASHINGTON ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY, MARCH 17, AND ATTEND THE SPEAKER'S ANNUAL FRIENDS OF IRELAND LUNCHEON THAT DAY. THE INVITATION WAS EXTENDED TO HAUGHEY LAST WEEK ON BEHALF OF THE SPEAKER BY VISITING CONGRESSMAN BRIAN DONNELLY WHO TOLD HAUGHEY THE SPEAKER WOULD BE INVITING PRESIDENT BUSH TO THE LUNCHEON AS WELL. 3. WE WERE ALSO TOLD THAT PADDY MCKIERNAN IS BEING INSTRUCTED TO SEEK AN OVAL OFFICE MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT - PRESUMABLY TO PRESENT THE TRADITIONAL GIFT OF ST. PATRICK'S DAY SHAMROCKS - AND TO REQUEST A CALL ON SECRETARY BAKER. CURRAN CONFIDENTIAL [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686382 Date: 09/04/2012 E13 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686382 Date: Ua/U4/2U12 NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686382 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 01 ACTION H-03 INFO DUBLIN 00400 01 OF 03 201203Z LOG-OO ADS-00 EUR-00 SS-00 DS-01 /004 W ------------------ 247674 220727Z /25 R 191710Z JAN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1437 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 00400 LONDON PLEASE PASS BELFAST [d e c o n t r o l l e d ! ------------ ' E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PREL, EFIN, EAID, CVIS, CMGT, El SUBJECT: CODEL DONNELLY VISIT TO IRELAND REF: (A) DUBLIN 197, ______________ [RELEASED IN FULL] (B) DUBLIN 367 1. SUMMARY. DONNELLY EXTENDED AN INVITATION FROM SPEAKER WRIGHT TO HAUGHEY TO VISIT WASHINGTON ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY. IN TIMELY INTERVENTIONS, DONNELLY HIT HAUGHEY, LENIHAN AND OPPOSITION LEADERS HARD ON THE US-EC DISPUTE ON GROWTH PROMOTERS (REF A ) . HE MADE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT IN THE MEDIA WITH HIS CRITICISMS OF THE INTERNATIONAL FUND AND PROMISES TO SUPPORT IMPROVEMENTS IN UK FAIR EMPLOYMENT LEGISLATION. HE PROMISED CONTINUED EFFORTS TO ATTENUATE EFFECTS OF THE TAX REFORM ACT ON IRELAND. WHILE THERE WAS MUCH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PRAISE FOR DONNELLY'S EFFORTS TO SECURE MORE VISAS FOR THE IRISH, HIS STERN WARNINGS AGAINST ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION TO THE US ALSO GOT THROUGH LOUD AND CLEAR. HE TOLD IRISH AUTHORITIES THERE IS LITTLE HOPE FOR AN AMNESTY BILL. DURING INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS AT THE EMBASSY, DONNELLY AND FOLEY STAFFER BRANDT PROMISED TO BE HELPFUL IF THE DEPARTMENT GOES FORWARD LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 DUBLIN 00400 01 OF 03 201203Z WITH A SUPPLEMENTAL TO FUND NP-5 PROCESSING. SUMMARY. 2. END CONGRESSMAN BRIAN DONNELLY, CHAIRMAN OF THE [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 4 U N C LASSIH LD U.S. Department or State uase no. h -^ u iu -u /y u u uoc no. u i/b O b J B J uate: u y/u 4 /zu \z FRIENDS OF IRELAND IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, VISITED IRELAND FROM JANUARY 6 - 1 9 . HE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY WERNER BRANDT, STAFF ASSISTANT TO THE MAJORITY LEADER AND KEVIN PETERSON, ASSISTANT SERGEANT AT ARMS. AS USUAL, DONNELLY, AS CHAIRMAN OF THE FRIENDS OF IRELAND AND AUTHOR OF THE "DONNELLY" BILL WHICH HAS RECENTLY PROVIDED A VISA BONANZA TO THOUSANDS OF EAGER IRISH IMMIGRANTS, WAS ACCORDED RED CARPET TREATMENT BY THE GOVERNMENT AND PRESS. DONNELLY MET WITH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY, FOREIGN MINISTER LENIHAN, INDUSTRY MINISTER BURKE, THE LEADERS OF THE OPPOSITION, SCORES OF MEMBERS OF THE IRISH PARLIAMENT AND REPRESENTATIVES OF THE CATHOLIC HIERARCHY. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW. US - IRISH RELATIONS 3. ON BEHALF OF SPEAKER JIM WRIGHT, DONNELLY EXTENDED INVITATIONS TO HAUGHEY AND TO DAIL SPEAKER SEAN TREACY TO VISIT THE US LATER THIS YEAR. HAUGHEY'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE INVITATION IS REPORTED REF (B). INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR IRELAND 4 . IN HIS MEETINGS WITH HAUGHEY AND LENIHAN AND IN SEVERAL PRESS INTERVIEWS, DONNELLY RAISED CONCERNS ABOUT PROJECT ALLOCATIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 03 DUBLIN 00400 01 OF 03 201203Z IRELAND AND WARNED OF A POSSIBLE EROSION OF SUPPORT IN THE US CONGRESS FOR FUTURE CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE FUND. OF SPECIFIC INTEREST DONNELLY SAID WERE A) AN ALLOCATION TO THE STRABANE BRANCH OF ALLIED IRISH BANKS FOR REFURBISHING ITS PREMISES (IP 1,500), B) APPROVAL OF IP 11,000 FOR A BETTING ESTABLISHMENT IN LIMAVADY, C) A GRANT OF MORE THAN IP 1 MILLION FOR A FISHERIES RESEARCH VESSEL FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT, D) THE REJECTION OF A PROPOSED EDUCATIONAL PROJECT AT CONWAY MILLS IN WEST BELFAST, E) A GRANT TO A PARACHUTE CENTER, AND F) THE APPROVAL OF IP 200,000 FOR EXTENSION OF A VISITORS CENTER AT THE BUSHMILLS DISTILLERY IN COLERAINE. 5. DONNELLY ALSO URGED THAT GREATER PRIORITY BE GIVEN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 TO DISADVANTAGED AREAS IN THE NORTH. HE CRITICIZED THE "SHOTGUN" APPROACH WHICH HE SAID HAD BEEN USED IN DISTRIBUTING FUND MONIES DURING THE FIRST TWO YEARS OF OPERATION. HE EXPRESSED SATISFACTION WHEN INFORMED BY HAUGHEY OF THE SEPT. 1988 DECISION BY THE BOARD OF THE FUND TO TARGET DISADVANTAGED AREAS IN NORTHERN IRELAND FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEW FUND ALLOCATIONS. (COMMENT: DEPT. OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OFFICIALS DEALING WITH THE FUND HAVE ESTIMATED THAT WHEN ALLOCATION OF CONTRIBUTIONS FOR THE FIRST THREE YEARS IS COMPLETED, ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE MONEYS ALLOCATED IN NORTHERN IRELAND WILL HAVE GONE TO DISADVANTAGED AREAS. END COMMENT.) LENIHAN AGREED WITH MUCH OF DONNELLY'S CRITICISM OF THE FUND AND OF ITS DIRECTOR, CHARLES BRETT, BUT WARNED THAT TOO MUCH PUBLIC CRITICISM COULD BECOME A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHESY. ON SPECIFIC LIMITED OFFICIAL USE NNNN LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 01 ACTION H-03 INFO DUBLIN 00400 02 OF 03 201204Z LOG-OO ADS-00 EUR-00 SS-00 DS-01 /004 W ------------------ 247700 220728Z /25 R 191710Z JAN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1438 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 02 OF 03 DUBLIN 00400 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LAS S IFIED U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 LONDON PLEASE PASS BELFAST E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PREL, EFI N , EAI D , CVIS, CMGT, El SUBJECT: CODEL DONNELLY VISIT TO IRELAND PROJECTS, LENIHAN WAFFLED ON THE CONWAY MILL PROPOSAL BY POINTING TO THE BRITISH VETO BUT NOTING THAT REJECTION OF THE PROJECT ALSO SERVED SDLP INTERESTS. 6. DESPITE HIS CRITICISM OF SPECIFIC PROJECTS, DONNELLY EXPRESSED CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR THE FUND AND ITS OBJECTIVES. AFTER HIS MEETING WITH FUND CHAIRMAN CHARLES BRETT, NEWS ARTICLES QUOTED DONNELLY AS SAYING THAT "...ON THE WHOLE, THE FUND HAS DONE A GREAT JOB...." 7. DONNELLY ALSO TOLD HIS IRISH INTERLOCUTORS THAT CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS THIS YEAR ON THE FUND WERE INEVITABLE BUT THAT HE AND OTHER MEMBERS SYMPATHETIC TO THE FUND HAD RECEIVED A COMMITMENT FROM LEE HAMILTON THAT THE IFI WOULD ONLY BE DISCUSSED AS PART OF A BROADER LOOK AT THE ENTIRE ESF PROGRAM AND WOULD BE ALLOTTED VERY LITTLE TIME IN PUBLIC SESSION. LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 DUBLIN 00400 02 OF 0 3 201204Z FAIR EMPLOYMENT 8. ON THE SUBJECT OF FAIR EMPLOYMENT LEGISLATION INTRODUCED IN THE U.K. PARLIAMENT, DONNELLY SAID THAT THE LEGISLATION WAS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. HOWEVER, HE SUPPORTED GOI AND SDLP CLAIMS THAT THE LEGISLATION SHOULD HAVE SPECIFIC GOALS AND A TIMETABLE, AND SHOULD MANDATE THE USE OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION TO BRING ABOUT EQUAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY IN NORTHERN IRELAND. HE MADE COMPARISONS BE1WEEN THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH AND THE CIRCUMSTANCES WHICH PREVAILED IN THE U.S. PRIOR TO U.S. ADOPTION OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PROGRAMS AS A MEANS OF ACHEIVING EQUAL OPPORTUNITY. DONNELLY EXPRESSED HIS HOPE THAT THE PROPOSED BILL WOULD BE AMENDED IN PARLIAMENT TO CORRECT THE WEAKNESS OF THE LEGISLATION AS IT NOW STANDS. PFIC'S UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 9. AT IRISH REQUEST, DONNELLY AND PARTY MET WITH MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE RAY BURKE WHO BRIEFED DONNELLY ON THE EFFECTS ON IRELAND OF THE PASSIVE FOREIGN INVESTMENT CORPORATION (PFIC) PROVISIONS OF THE 1986 TAX REFORM ACT. THE GOI PREDICTS THAT THE RESULT OF THE LEGISLATION WILL BE FOR U.S. SUBSIDIARIES TO REMIT A MUCH HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THEIR PROFITS TO THE U.S. AND UNDERMINING GOI EFFORTS TO ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL U.S. INVESTMENT IN IRELAND. 10. DONNELLY EXPLAINED HIS EFFORTS TO AMEND THE 1986 LEGISLATION TO EXCLUDE FROM THE DEFINITION OF A PFIC, U.S. SUBSIDIARIES LOCATED IN COUNTRIES, SUCH AS LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 03 DUBLIN 00400 02 OF 03 201204Z IRELAND, WITH WHICH THE U.S. HAS A TRADE SURPLUS. THE U.S. SURPLUS WITH IRELAND IN 1988, ABOUT USD1 BILLION, TRANSLATED INTO ABOUT 27,000 JOBS IN THE U.S. ACCORDING TO IRISH OFFICIALS. DONNELLY SAID THAT HE EXPECTED HIS BILL TO BE ATTACHED TO OTHER TAX LEGISLATION SOMETIME DURING THE SUMMER OR FALL OF THIS YEAR. SUPER ROYALTIES 11. BURKE ALSO EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE "SUPER ROYALTIES" PROVISIONS OF THE 1986 TAX REFORM ACT, BUT SAID THAT THE GOI IS STILL TRYING TO ASSESS THE EXTENT OF THE LEGISLATION'S IMPACT ON IRELAND. THE INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (IDA) HAS ENGAGEEMICDLONSULTANTS (ARTHUR ANDERSON IN WASHINGTON DC AND A BOSTON LAW FIRM) TO STUDY THE TREASURY DEPT. WHITE PAPER ON SUPER ROYALTIES IMPLEMENTATION. JOHN DULLY, BURKE'S NEW ASST. SECRETARY FOR TRADE, SAID THAT IN SOME CASES ROYALTIES PAID BY IRISH SUBSIDIARIES COULD INCREASE SEVERAL FOLD. IMMIGRATION 12. IMMIGRATION WAS THE PRINCIPAL FOCUS OF MEDIA COVERAGE AND MOST BUSINESS MEETINGS. FROM THE PRIME MINISTER ON DOWN, THE IRISH THANKED DONNELLY PROFUSELY FOR EXTENSION OF THE NP-5 PROGRAM. DONNELLY ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 20,000 AND 24,000 THE NUMBER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17B8B383 Date: 09/04/2012 OF IRISH LIKELY TO BENEFIT FROM THE PROGRAM OVER THE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE NNNN LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 01 ACTION H-03 INFO DUBLIN 00400 03 OF 03 201247Z LOG-00 ADS-00 EUR-00 SS-00 DS-01 /004 W ------------------ 250032 220741Z /25 R 191710Z JAN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1439 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 03 OF 03 DUBLIN 00400 LONDON PLEASE PASS BELFAST E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PREL, EFIN, E AID, CVIS, CMGT, El SUBJECT: CODEL DONNELLY VISIT TO IRELAND NEXT TWO FISCAL YEARS. 13. DONNELLY WAS PESSIMISTIC ON LONGER TERM IMMIGRATION REFORM. HE DID NOT BELIEVE THE CONGRESS WOULD BE INTERESTED IN TACKLING THE ISSUE HEAD-ON FOR A FEW MORE YEARS. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE WAS CONFIDENT THE BERMAN PROVISIONS OF HIS BILL WOULD BE REPEALED BY THE CONGRESS THIS YEAR. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C l /'bbbSti.i uate: uy/u4/zu I^ t Tv ^Tt n n r i At n s T / i x i T i To n UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 14. DONNELLY WAS FREQUENTLY CONFRONTED BY THE MEDIA AND ASKED IN ALL HIS MEETINGS ABOUT AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL IRISH CURRENTLY IN THE U.S. PUBLICLY AND PRIVATELY HIS RESPONSE WAS UNAMBIGUOUS - THERE IS NO POLITICAL EQUATION FOR AMNESTY AT THIS TIME. HE REITERATED PUBLICLY TIME AND AGAIN THE IMPORTANCE OF THE IRISH OBTAINING PROPER DOCUMENTATION BEFORE GOING TO THE U.S. NP-5 FUNDING LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 DUBLIN 00400 03 OF 03 201247Z 15. IN THE EMBASSY BRIEFING ON THE NP-5 PROGRAM, WE UNDERLINED TO DONNELLY THE DEPARTMENT'S DIFFICULTIES IN FUNDING THE PROGRAM OUT OF EXISTING FUNDS. WE TOLD DONNELLY THAT WHILE WE HAD SCRAPPED TOGETHER START-UP MONIES WHICH ARE ENABLING US TO BEGIN ISSUING VISAS THIS MONTH, THE DEPARTMENT PROBABLY DID NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO MEET THE LEGISLATIVE REQUIREMENT OF ISSUING 15,000 VISAS THIS FISCAL YEAR. WHILE WE SAID WE COULD NOT COMMENT ON THE OMB POSITION ON A SUPPLEMENTAL, WE TOLD DONNELLY THE DEPARTMENT WOULD PROBABLY BE PUSHING A SUPPLEMENTAL VERY STRONGLY. 16. DONNELLY AND BRANDT WERE VERY SYMPATHETIC. THEY SAID A PROVISION FOR MONEY FOR THE NP-5 PROGRAM IN A SUPPLEMENTAL WOULD SURELY BE APPROVED AND THAT, IF A DEPARTMENT SUPPLEMENTAL FAILED TO INCLUDE MONIES FOR NP-5, THEY WOULD BE TACKED ON. 17. THIS MESSAGE HAS NOT BEEN SEEN BY THE CODEL. CURRAN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686383 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686384 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED PAGH 01 DUBLIN ACTION AGRE-00 INFO LOG-OO NEA-04 TRSE-00 JUSE-00 ADS-00 NSCE-00 PM-10 DOEE-OO 07734 271428Z INR-05 NSAE-00 OMB-01 T-01 EUR-00 CIAE-00 EB-00 DODE-OO COME-OO L-03 AMAD-01 CTME-00 STR-18 INRE-00 TST-02 USIE-00 /045 W ----- 100777 271806Z /48 38 R 271420Z DEC 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 3682 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON RELEASED IN FULL UNCLAS DUBLIN 07734 STATE PASS AGRICULTURE ELECTRONICALLY FOR DLP/FAS E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: EAGR, El SUBJECT: IRISH CATTLE EXPORTERS ANNOUNCE LARGE SALE TO LIBYA 1. THE WATERFORD LIVESTOCK AND MEAT COMPANY HAVE ANNOUNCED A CATTLE EXPORT AGREEMENT WITH LIBYA ESTIMATED TO BE WORTH ABOUT IRISH POUNDS 70 MILLION, INCLUDING EC EXPORT REFUNDS (ONE IRISH POUND CURRENTLY EQUALS USD 1.51). THEY SAY THE DEAL FOLLOWS REPRESENTATIONS MADE ON THEIR BEHALF BY THE IRISH PRIME MINISTER, MR CHARLES HAUGHEY (WE HAVE SO FAR BEEN UNABLE TO CONFIRM DETAILS OF THIS WITH GOI) . THE COMPANY SAYS THAT LIBYA WILL IMPORT A TOTAL OF 125,000 CATTLE NEXT YEAR, OF WHICH IRELAND WILL SUPPLY ABOUT 90,000 HEAD. THIS WOULD MEAN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN IRISH EXPORTS TO LIBYA COMPARED WITH RECENT YEARS. LAST YEAR THESE TOTALED ONLY 16,000 HEAD, AND FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THRU SEPTEMBER THIS YEAR (THE LATEST FOR WHICH DATA IS AVAILABLE) SHIPMENTS WERE 23,000 HEAD. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN 07734 271428Z 2. THE WATERFORD LIVESTOCK AND MEAT COMPANY'S CHAIRMAN, SEAMUS PURCELL HAS FOR MANY YEARS BEEN THE PRINCIPAL IRISH EXPORTER OF CATTLE TO LIBYA AND THE COMPANY, WHICH IS RELATIVELY NEW, IS BELIEVED TO BE A REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686384 Date: 09/04/2012 E15 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686384 Date: 09/04/2012 CONSORTIUM OF IRISH, LIBYAN AND OTHER INTERESTS. EL LUHUM, THE LIBYAN NATIONAL LIVESTOCK AND MEAT COMPANY, IS UNDERSTOOD TO USE THE WATERFORD COMPANY'S OFFICE AS ITS IRISH BASE. 2. THE PRESS STATEMENT SAYS THAT 70,000 CATTLE WILL BE SUPPLIED THROUGH THE WATERFORD COMPANY WITH A FURTHER 20,000 HEAD FROM OTHER IRISH COMPANIES. IRISH BASED TRADERS INVOLVED REPORTEDLY INCLUDE MR ABU FATAH SHARIF (A BUSINESS ASSOCIATE OF PURCELL), PURCELL EXPORT, SALLYVIEW ESTATES (OWNED BY ITALIAN TRADER BAZERINI) AND HORGANS. NON IRISH SUPPLIERS REPORTEDLY INCLUDE AN AUSTRIAN TRADER, A LIBYAN-SYRIAN CONSORTIUM AND AN EGYPTIAN TRADER CALLED ZEDU. THE EXPORTERS ARE CURRENTLY PAYING IRISH FARMERS ABOUT IRISH POUNDS 64 PER LONG HUNDREDWEIGHT, LIVEWEIGHT, FOR CATTLE FOR THIS CONTRACT, BUT PRICES SHOULD RISE SEASONALLY IN THE SPRING. 3. INDUSTRY SOURCES ALSO TELL US THAT A CONTRACT TO SUPPLY 20,000 TONS OF BEEF TO LIBYA IS CURRENTLY BEING NEGOTIATED BY PURCELL. MOORE UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686384 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686386 Date: 09/04/2012 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 01 ACTION STR-18 INFO DUBLIN 07386 071612Z LOG-00 STRE-00 ADS-00 EUR-00 OIC-02 EB-00 10-19 DS-01 /040 W ------------------ 316410 071614Z /44 O 071607Z DEC 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3551 INFO EC COLLECTIVE USMISSION GENEVA LIMITED OFFICIAL USE DUBLIN 0 7386 SSO-OO , -------- ---- . [ e l e a s e d in f u l l ] r BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEC E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ETRD, El, EEC, USTR, SZ SUBJECT: VISIT OF USTR CARLA HILLS TO DUBLIN [DECONTROLLED| REF: (A) DUBLIN 7214, (B) STATE 378400 (C) STONE/ANDERSON TELCONS 1. SUMMARY: AS DISCUSSED IN REF C, WE HAVE MODIFIED THE TENTATIVE SCHEDULE (REF A) FOR USTR HILLS' VISIT TO DUBLIN TO INCLUDE A MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY, AN EMBASSY BRIEFING, A MEETING WITH PRINT JOURNALISTS, AND A SMALL WORKING DINNER. FOREIGN MINISTER COLLINS AND AGRICULTURE MINISTER O 'KENNEDY WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR MEETINGS ON DECEMBER 13. REVISED SCHEDULE IS PROVIDED IN PARA 2 BELOW. END SUMMARY. 2. REVISED SCHEDULE FOR VISIT OF USTR HILLS TO DUBLIN, DECEMBER 13 AND 14: DECEMBER 13 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 09:20 AM - DUBLIN 07386 071612Z ARRIVE AT DUBLIN AIRPORT VIA BA #814--MET BY AMBASSADOR RICHARD MOORE AND CONTROL OFFICER REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686386 Date: 09/04/2012 7 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686386 Date: 09/04/2012 10:00 AM BRIEFING AT THE EMBASSY BY AMB MOORE; DEAN CURRAN, D C M ; CURTIS STONE, ECON; JOHN AVARD, F C S ; JOE JOHNSON, USIS; AND GEORGE DEMPSEY, POL. 11:00 AM MEETING WITH PRINT JOURNALISTS AT THE EMBASSY. INVITEES INCLUDE SIX SENIOR MEDIA WRITERS. 12:30 - WORKING LUNCHEON HOSTED BY DESMOND O'MALLEY, -3:00 PM MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE AT THE SHELBOURNE HOTEL. OTHER ATTENDEES ARE: JOHN DONLON, SECRETARY OF INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE; JOHN DULLY, ASST SECRETARY; TONY JOYCE, PRINCIPAL OFFICER; ANNE TROY AND JOHN WALSHE, ASST PRINCIPAL OFFICERS; AMBASSADOR MOORE; GARY EDSON (USTR); TORIE CLARKE (USTR); DEAN CURRAN (EMBASSY) AND CURTIS STONE (EMBASSY). 5:30 PM MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY. 7:00 PM WORKING DINNER AT AMBASSADOR'S RESIDENCE. DECEMBER 14 6:15 - AM DEPART AMBASSADOR'S RESIDENCE FOR DUBLIN AIRPORT 7:30 AM DEPART DUBLIN VIA El 630 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 03 DUBLIN 07386 071612Z 3. HOTEL RESERVATIONS FOR GARY EDSON AND TORIE CLARKE HAVE BEEN MADE AT JURY'S HOTEL, ACROSS THE STREET FROM THE EMBASSY. THE RATE IS IP 84 PER NIGHT (ABOUT USD 126)- MOORE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686386 Date: 09/04/2012 UN C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686386 Date: 09/04/2012 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686386 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686388 Date: 09/04/2012 ? UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION SCT-03 BELFAS INFO ADS-00 DODE-OO NRCE-00 CA-02 FBIE-00 /045 W LOG-00 EB-00 CTME-00 INRE-00 JUSE-00 P-02 00309 220934Z AID-00 NSCE-00 TRSE-00 CG-00 DOEE-OO INR-07 NSAE-00 PM-10 ACDA-12 M-01 EUR-00 COME-0 0 PA-02 A- 00 DS-01 ?144350 R 220900Z NOV 89 FM AMCONSUL BELFAST TO SECSTATE WASHDC 630 7 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY DUBLIN AMCONSUL EDINBURGH SS-00 SSO-OO FAAE-00 USSS-00 IMMC-01 CIAE-00 L-03 CCO-OO USIE-00 OIS-Ol 240217Z /64 RELEASED IN FULL UNCLAS BELFAST 0309 E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PINS, PTER, PREL, A S E C , UK, El SUBJECT: SAFE HAVEN ROW CONTINUES IN WAKE OF PIRA ATTACKS REF: BELFAST 030 6 THE ISSUE OF SAFE HAVEN FOR TERRORISTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND WAS REKINDLED NOV. 21ST BY REPORTS THAT THE MOTORCYCLE USED BY THE PIRA KILLERS IN THE TRIPLE MURDER OF SOLDIERS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND (REFTEL) WAS FOUND DUMPED IN A SMALL LAKE NEAR WARRENPOINT IN COUNTY DOWN. THE BIKE IS REPORTED TO HAVE HAD FALSE PLATES AND TO HAVE BEEN STOLEN FROM OUTSIDE A CHURCH IN DUNDALK IN THE REPUBLIC. THE REVELATION HAS REVIVED HMG CONCERNS THAT POOR SECURITY IN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 BELFAS 00309 220934Z THE REPUBLIC PERMITS THE PIRA TO MOUNT ATTACKS INTO NORTHERN IRELAND. ON THE 21ST, LOCAL PAPERS CARRIED A STORY ABOUT AN ENCOUNTER IN PARIS ON NOV. 18TH AT THE EUROPEAN LEADERS SUMMIT BETWEEN IRISH PREMIER CHARLES HAUGHEY AND PRIME [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686388 Date: 09/04/2012 Q UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686388 Date: 09/04/2012 MINISTER THATCHER. THATCHER IS REPORTED TO HAVE RAISED THE HACKLES OF DUBLIN POLITICIANS AFTER MAKING "A CASUAL REMARK" TO HAUGHEY ABOUT SAFE HAVENS FOR TERRORISTS. HAUGHEY REPORTEDLY RESPONDED THAT HE WAS NOT AWARE OF ANY SAFE HAVENS AND THAT THE WEEKEND INCIDENTS OCCURRED IN AREAS CONTROLLED BY BRITISH SECURITY FORCES. ARCHARD UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686388 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSCE-00 TRSE-00 HHS-04 USIE-00 PRS-01 LOG-OO H-01 LAB-04 SIL-01 USSS-00 SNP-01 04044 01 OF 04 INR-0 7 NSAE-00 PM-10 INRE-00 JUSE-00 DS-01 141714Z SS-00 CIAE-00 EB-00 COME-0 0 SSO-OO HA-09 PA-01 ED-04 DOTE-00 SSC-01 AGRE-00 FRB-03 FBIE-00 SP-02 OC-Ol P-02 T-01 /067 W -- 074777 141734Z /49-40 DODE-OO L-03 OMB-Ol OES-09 DOEE-OO O 141705Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2509 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DUBLIN 04044 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE NEW IRISH GOVERNMENT ______________ (RELEASED IN FULL) REF: DUBLIN 3965 (NOTAL) 1. (C-- ENTIRE TEXT, EXCEPT PARA 3). 2. ON WEDNESDAY, 12 JULY, PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY WAS RE-ELECTED PRIME MINISTER (REFTEL) AND, FOLLOWING HIS FORMAL APPOINTMENT BY THE PRESIDENT, PRESENTED HIS CABINET LIST FOR APPROVAL BY THE IRISH PARLIAMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE FOUR-YEAR GOVERNMENT PROGRAM WORKED OUT WITH HIS NEW GOVERNMENT PARTNERS, THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS, WAS MADE PUBLIC. THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS THAT, IN REGARD TO BOTH THE CABINET AND THE PROGRAM, DESSIE O'MALLEY'S P D 'S WON THE NEGOTIATING BATTLE OVER HAUGHEY'S FI ANNA FAIL. BUT HAUGHEY MAY HAVE WON THE WAR. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 04044 01 OF 04 141714Z NEW CABINET 3. (U) [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 1 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C1768639U Date: uy/u4/^ui DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE AND DEPUTY PRIME M I N I S T E R - (TANAISTE) FOREIGN AFFAIRS FINANCE THE MARINE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE LABOUR ENERGY SOCIAL WELFARE JUSTICE AND COMMUNICATIONS THE ENVIRONMENT HEALTH EDUCATION TOURISM AND TRANSPORT BRIAN LENIHAN GERARD COLLINS ALBERT REYNOLDS JOHN P. WILSON MICHAEL O 'KENNEDY DESMOND J. O' MALLEY BERTIE AHERN BOBBY MOLLOY MICHAEL WOODS RAY BURKE PADRAIG FLYNN RORY O 'HANLON MARY O'ROURKE SEAMUS BRENNAN 4. THERE IS, ACTUALLY, RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CABINET MEMBERSHIP, UNDERLINING HAUGHEY'S OFT-REPEATED CONTENTION THAT HIS GOVERNMENT OF THE LAST TWO PLUS YEARS WAS AN EFFICIENT AND PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT. THERE IS ONLY ONE NEW FIANNA FAIL FACE IN THE CABINET AND THE BULK OF THOSE RETURNING KEEP THE SAME PORTFOLIOS. NEVERTHELESS, HAUGHEY DID TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FORCED CABINET SHUFFLE TO TAKE CARE OF SOME PROBLEMS. FIRST, BRIAN LENIHAN'S SHIFT FROM FOREIGN AFFAIRS TO THE LESS-ONEROUS DEFENCE JOB (HE REMAINS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER) BOTH ENABLES HIM TO CONSERVE HIS ENERGY FOLLOWING HIS RECENT LIVERCONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 04044 01 OF 04 141714Z TRANSPLANT AND BRINGS ON LINE TO RESOLVE THE LONGSIMMERING ARMY PAY DISPUTE LENIHAN'S CONSIDERABLE NEGOTIATING TALENTS. SIMILARLY, JOHN WILSON HAS BEEN SHIFTED FROM TOURISM TO THE DEPARTMENT OF THE MARINE TO FIND A SOLUTION TO THE FISHING LICENSE DISPUTE. FIANNA FAIL STRATEGISTS CONSIDER THE TWO, ESSENTIALLY LOCAL ISSUES, AS HAVING HAD A HIGHLY DAMAGING IMPACT ON THE PARTY'S FORTUNES IN THE ELECTIONS. THEIR INABILITY TO FIND SOLUTIONS EVIDENTLY WAS THE REASON FOR FORMER DEFENCE MINISTER MICHAEL NOONAN AND MARINE MINISTER BRENDAN DALY DISAPPEARING FROM THE CABINET ALTOGETHER. 5. AT FOREIGN AFFAIRS, LENIHAN IS REPLACED BY FORMER JUSTICE MINISTER GERARD COLLINS, CHOSEN EVIDENTLY NOT BECAUSE HE HAD BRIEFLY HELD THE POST BEFORE BUT BECAUSE, UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C l /btSb'^yu uate: u y /iw z u i^ AS JUSTICE MINISTER, HE HAD BEEN A REGULAR PARTICIPANT IN THE MEETINGS OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE OF THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT. AT JUSTICE, COLLINS IS RE PLACED BY INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE MINISTER RAY BURKE. 6. THIS LAST MOVE FREES INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE FOR PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT LEADER, DESSIE O'MALLEY, WHO HELD THE POST FOUR TIMES PREVIOUSLY, INCLUDING TWICE IN A HAUGHEY-LED CABINET. THE OTHER PD SEAT GOES TO BOBBY MOLLOY AT ENERGY (REPLACING MICHAEL SMITH WHOSE DISAPPEARANCE FROM THE CABINET TABLE IS A SURPRISE). THE NEW FIANNA FAIL FACE IN THE CABINET IS SEAMUS BRENNAN PROMOTED FROM A JUNIOR MINISTERSHIP TO TAKE OVER AT TOURISM. 7. THIS IS AN EXPERIENCED CABINET. ALL THE KEY MEMBERS (LENIHAN, COLLINS, O'MALLEY, MOLLOY, 0 1KENNEDY AND HAUGHEY HIMSELF) FIRST SAT AROUND A CABINET TABLE TOGETHER TWO DECADES AGO. THIS ALONE AUGURS WELL FOR A COOPERATIVE GOVERNMENT. CERTAINLY, THE LONG-STANDING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 DUBLIN 04044 01 OF 04 141714Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSCE-00 TRSE-00 HHS-04 USIE-00 PRS-01 LOG-OO H-01 LAB-04 SIL-01 USSS-00 SNP-01 04044 02 OF 04 INR-0 7 NSAE-00 PM-10 INRE-00 JUSE-00 DS-01 141715Z CIAE-00 EB-00 SS-00 HA-09 COME-00 SSO-OO DOTE-OO ED-04 PA-01 AGRE-00 FRB-03 SSC-01 OC-Ol FBIE-00 SP-02 T-01 /067 W P-02 ?075047 141734Z /49 DODE-OO L-03 OMB-Ol OES-09 DOEE-OO 0 141705Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2510 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 DUBLIN 04044 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST PERSONAL ANIMOSITY BETWEEN HAUGHEY AND O'MALLEY HAS BEEN AT LEAST PAPERED OVER FOR THE TIME BEING. BUT AS O'MALLEY HAS BEEN FOND OF CLAIMING, HAUGHEY IS USED TO A CABINET OF YES-MEN. DID HIS SERIOUS ILLNESS LAST FALL REALLY CHANGE HIM (AS SOME HAVE CLAIMED)? HAS O'MALLEY, UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department o state Uase No. h-^uiu-u/'yuu uoc n o .oi/eoojau uaie; u>>/u^/^u i? f < FREED FROM THE NEED TO CHALLENGE HAUGHEY FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF FIANNA FAIL, TRULY MELLOWED? OR WILL THE FIRST , SERIOUS CABINET DISAGREEMENT REVEAL THIS FIANNA FAIL-PD ALLIANCE TO HAVE BEEN A MISTAKE? THE POLICY BARGAINS 8. IN HIS STATEMENT TO THE IRISH PARLIAMENT, HAUGHEY CLAIMED THAT HIS AGREEMENT ON A FOUR-YEAR PROGRAM WITH THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS "EXPANDS IN MANY USEFUL DIRECTIONS THE EXISTING PARAMETERS OF GOVERNMENT POLICY," COMPLEMENTING FIANNA FAIL'S OWN NATIONAL RECOVERY PROGRAM. THIS IS LARGELY TRUE. BUT THERE ARE AREAS WHERE CONCESSIONS WERE CLEARLY MADE TO PD POLICY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 04044 02 OF 04 141715Z POSITIONS WHICH SEEM TO RUB AGAINST THE GRAIN OF FIANNA FAIL TRADITION OR THE COMMITMENTS OF THE LAST GOVERNMENT. 9. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IS THE ADOPTION OF AN EXPLICIT TARGET OF REDUCING THE STANDARD PERSONAL TAX RATE TO 25 PERCENT AT THE END OF FOUR YEARS. FIANNA FAIL'S POSITION HAD BEEN TO PROMISE UNSPECIFIED TAX REDUCTIONS AS CONDITIONS PERMITTED. ON THE OTHER HAND, FIANNA FAIL'S COMMITMENT TO MAINTENANCE OF THE SEMI-STATE SECTOR PREVAILS OVER THE P D 'S DESIRE TO MOVE TO PRIVATIZATION. THE TWO AGREEMENTS MAY NOT ONLY BE A NEGOTIATING BALANCE BUT MAY ALSO BE DESIGNED TO AVOID UPSETTING THE TRADE UNIONS WHICH THE NEW GOVERNMENT HOPES TO BRING ON BOARD A NEW NATIONAL RECOVERY PROGRAM. CERTAINLY, JOB CREATION IS PINPOINTED AS THE "MAJOR PRIORITY" OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT, WITH THE TARGETS BEING 35,000 NEW JOBS A YEAR BY 1993 AND THE ENDING OF INVOLUNTARY EMIGRATION. IN TRUTH, ECONOMIC AND FISCAL POLICY IS AN AREA WHERE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE P D 'S AND THE FIANNA FAIL OF THE POST-1987 GENERAL ELECTION ERA ARE OFTEN MORE ONE OF TIMING THAN OF SUBSTANCE. AS THEIR AGREEMENT STRESSES, THE BOTTOM LINE CONTINUES TO BE FINANCIAL RETRENCHMENT TO BRING PUBLIC SPENDING UNDER SUSTAINABLE CONTROL: "ALL (GOVERNMENT) MEASURES ARE SUBJECT TO OVERALL FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE RESTRAINT WILL REMAIN ESSENTIAL FOR A LONG TIME TO COME." THIS IS A VICTORY THE P D 'S WON SOME TWO YEARS AGO. 10. MORE TRANSPARENT SUCCESSES FOR THE PD NEGOTIATORS IN THE RECENT BARGAINING CAME IN THE AREA OF GOVERNMENTAL UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-0790Q Doc No. C1768639Q Date: 09/04/2U12 RECTITUDE. ON THE REDRAWING OF THE CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES, THE P D 'S ACHIEVED NOT JUST A COMMITMENT TO DISCARD LAST YEAR'S ABORTIVE PLAN (WHICH THE SMALLER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 04044 02 OF 04 141715Z PARTIES CONSIDERED A BLATANT FIANNA FAIL ATTEMPT TO GERRYMANDER AT THEIR EXPENSE), BUT THE SPECIFIC TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR A NEW CONSTITUENCY COMMISSION ENSURING THAT ONLY "MINIMUM CHANGE" WOULD BE MADE TO THE "TRADITIONAL PATTERN" OF CONSTITUENCIES. ON NATIONAL LOTTERY FUNDING, AN ALL-PARTY WORKING GROUP WILL TAKE ALLOCATION OUT OF THE HANDS OF THE GOVERNMENT. AND THERE WILL BE NEW LEGISLATION ON TELEPHONE TAPPING (HARKING BACK TO THE SCANDALS OF AN EARLIER HAUGHEY REGIME). 11. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT POLICY AREA WHERE FIANNA FAIL HELD FIRM WAS THAT OF NORTHERN IRELAND- THE P D 'S HAD BEEN THE MOST VOCAL IN ACCUSING THE HAUGHEY GOVERNMENT OF A LACKLUSTRE APPROACH TO THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT, OF FAILING TO SEIZE A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY TO PRESS FOR A POLITICAL SOLUTION IN THE NORTH, AND, SPECIFICALLY, OF NOT BEING COMMITTED TO DEVOLUTION. DEVOLUTION WAS, AFTER ALL, THE VERY ISSUE OVER WHICH O'MALLEY HAD BROKEN WITH FIANNA FAIL. ALL INDICATIONS WERE THAT THE PD NEGOTIATORS WOULD PRESS HARD ON THIS ISSUE; INDEED, OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE WERE REPORTS THAT IT REMAINED ONE OF THE FEW REMAINING STUMBLING-BLOCKS TO REACHING FINAL AGREEMENT. IN THE EVENT, THE TWO BRIEF PARAGRAPHS ON NORTHERN IRELAND IN THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM DO NOT EVEN MENTION DEVOLUTION. RATHER, THEY ENDORSE THE FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT'S STRATEGY OF BEAVERING AWAY AT PRACTICAL AREAS WHERE PROGRESS CAN BE ACHIEVED UNDER THE AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE AS IT AFFECTS THE NATIONALIST COMMUNITY IN THE NORTH. ACCORDING TO SENIOR DFA SOURCES, THIS CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: U9/U4/^U1^ NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 04044 03 OF 04 141716Z LOG-OO H-01 LAB-04 SIL-01 USSS-00 SNP-01 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 EB-00 NSCE-00 NSAE-00 COME-OO SSO-OO HA-09 TRSE-00 PM-10 PA-01 ED-04 DOTE-OO HHS-04 INRE-00 SSC-01 AGRE-00 FRB-03 USIE-00 JUSE-00 FBIE-00 SP-02 OC-Ol PRS-01 DS-01 P-02 T-01 /067 W ------------------ 075102 141735Z /49 O 141705Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2511 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L DODE-OO L-03 OMB-Ol OES-09 DOEE-OO SECTION 03 OF 04 DUBLIN 04044 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST ENDORSEMENT OF THE FIANNA FAIL APPROACH AND THE APPOINTMENT OF COLLINS TO THE FOREIGN MINISTRY INDICATE NO CHANGE IN THE IRISH APPROACH TO THE AGREEMENT. WINNERS AND LOSERS 12. THE HEADLINE ANALYSIS OF THIS RESOLUTIGN TO THE INCONCLUSIVE ELECTION RESULTS OF 15 JUNE IS THAT THE PD'S WON. SUB-HEADLINES SUGGEST THAT THE FIANNA FAIL LOSS MAY, IN FACT, HAVE BEEN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT. BY ENTERING A COALITION FOR THE FIRST-EVER TIME, FIANNA FAIL HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT IT IS NOW A PARTY LIKE ANY OTHER. AS ONE COMMENTATOR PUT IT- "FIANNA FAIL IS NO LONGER A MOVEMENT BUT A PARTY." MOST WELCOMED THIS AS A FURTHER STEP IN BRINGING IRISH POLITICS INTO LINE WITH MODERN EUROPEAN PRACTICE. BUT, BY ALL ACCOUNTS, THERE WAS FIERCE RESISTANCE TO COALITION AT FIANNA FAIL GRASSROOTS LEVEL, WITH SEVERAL LOCAL COMMITTEES CHARGING THEIR PARLIAMENTARY DEPUTIES WITH SPEAKING OUT AGAINST THE CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UN C LAS S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 04044 03 OF 04 141716Z MOVE IN DUBLIN. THIS WAS REFLECTED AT LEADERSHIP LEVEL BY THE STANDARD LINE TAKEN BY FIANNA FAIL MINISTERS THAT ADHERENCE TO SINGLE-PARTY RULE WAS A "CORE VALUE" OF THE PARTY. 13. WHY, THEN DID HAUGHEY CONCEDE? THE BOTTOM LINE WOULD SEEM CLEARLY TO BE HAUGHEY'S GUT DESIRE TO HOLD ONTO POWER RUNNING UP AGAINST THE CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE OPINION POLLS THAT THE ELECTORATE JUST WOULD NOT STAND FOR ANOTHER ELECTION- RELEASED AT A CRITICAL MOMENT WHEN THE FIANNA FAIL-PD NEGOTIATIONS SEEMED STALLED, THE POLLS INDICATED THAT, IF HAUGHEY CHOSE TO GO TO THE COUNTRY AGAIN, HE WOULD LOSE EVEN MORE SEATS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ELECTORATE IN GENERAL FAVORED A FIANNA FAIL COALITION WITH EITHER FINE GAEL OR THE P D 'S OR BOTH. THOUGH A BITTER PILL FOR HAUGHEY TO SWALLOW, IT WAS MADE EASIER BY THE DEBATE WITHIN THE FIANNA FAIL PARLIAMENTARY PARTY. FROM OUR CONVERSATIONS, IT IS CLEAR THAT, AT THE PARTY LEVEL, THERE WERE A NUMBER OF REINFORCING STRANDS OF ARGUMENT. FIRST, HAUGHEY HAD MANY DEPUTIES ARGUING THAT TIMES HAD CHANGED AND THAT IT WAS THE MARK OF A LEADER TO HELP HIS FOLLOWERS TO COME TO TERMS WITH CHANGING REALITIES. A COALITION, IN SHORT, WAS IN THE "NATIONAL INTEREST." SECOND, THEY ALSO ARGUED THAT WHAT LOCAL RESISTANCE THERE WAS WAS DUE TO PERSONALITIES AND CENTERED IN AREAS WHERE THE PD LEADERS WERE STILL VIEWED LOCALLY AS TRAITORS TO FIANNA FAIL. FINALLY, THERE WERE MANY WHO FELT THAT A COALITION WITH THE P D 'S WAS NO MORE THAN WELCOMING THE PRODIGAL CHILDREN BACK HOME--NOT REALLY A COALITION AT ALL, BUT MUCH MORE LIKE THE ALLIANCE BETWEEN LEADERS OF RIVAL WINGS OF THE PARTY THAT FIANNA FAIL WAS SO USED TO. IN THIS VIEW, THE P D 'S WILL HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BACK IN FIANNA FAIL LONG BEFORE THE FOUR-YEAR AGREEMENT RUNS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 04044 03 OF 04 141716Z ITS COURSE. 14. IF TRUE, WAS THE VICTORY, THEN, ONE FOR THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS AS A PARTY, OR A PERSONAL VICTORY FOR DESSIE O'MALLEY? CERTAINLY, WHILE THE AGREED PROGRAM CARRIES THE CLEAR HALLMARKS OF PD POLICY, IT ALSO UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: U9/U4/201 ^ SERVES, BY ITS VERY NATURE AS AN AGREED PROGRAM, TO BLUR WHAT HAD BEEN CLEAR LINES OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FIANNA FAIL AND PD PHILOSOPHY. IT COULD MORE ACCURATELY BE DESCRIBED AS A FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT PROGRAM MASTER MINDED BY DESSIE O'MALLEY. HOW LONG WILL O'MALLEY AND MALLOY BE ABLE TO PROJECT A DISTINCTIVE PD STAMP ONTO COLLECTIVE CABINET DECISIONS? ADDITIONALLY, WITH O'MALLEY AND MOLLOY NOW SITTING WITH THEIR FRONT-BENCH COLLEAGUES, THE FOUR REMAINING PD BACKBENCHERS (TO BE REDUCED TO THREE WHEN HARNEY RECEIVES HER ANTICIPATED JUNIOR MINISTERSHIP AND PERHAPS, EVEN, TO TWO IF WYSE IS ELECTED DEPUTY SPEAKER), STUCK IN THE FAR REACHES OF THE BACK ROW, LOOK FORLORN, INDEED. THOUGH THE BARGAINING ALSO PRODUCED SOME DIRECT PARTY BENEFITS (STATE FUNDING FOR PARTY HEADQUARTERS, PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP), THE P D 'S SIMPLY LACK THE MEMBERS. WITHOUT A BACKBENCH HINTERLAND, HOW LONG CAN THE LEADERSHIP REMAIN VIABLE? 15. BUT THE MOST TRANSPARENT LOSERS ON WEDNESDAY WERE THE PARTIES OF THE LEFT. BOTH LABOUR AND THE WORKERS' PARTY HAD ADOPTED A POLICY OF, ESSENTIALLY, OPTING OUT OF THE GOVERNMENT-FORMATION PROCESS. BOTH ARGUED THAT IT WAS UP TO "THE PARTIES OF THE RIGHT" TO SEE TO IT. CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 LOG-OO 04044 INR-07 04 OF 04 SS-00 141716Z CIAE-00 EB-00 DODE-OO UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 H-01 LAB-04 SIL-01 USSS-00 SNP-01 NSCE-00 TRSE-00 HHS-04 USIE-00 PRS-01 NSAE-00 PM-10 INRE-0 0 JUSE-00 DS-01 O 141705Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2512 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L COME-OO SSO-OO HA-09 ED -04 DOTE-OO SSC-01 AGRE-00 FRB-03 FBIE-00 SP-02 OC-Ol P-02 T-01 /067 W ?075123 141736Z /49 P A - 01 L-03 OMB-Ol OES-09 DOEE-OO SECTION 04 OF 04 DUBLIN 04044 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST BOTH WERE HOPING THAT A GRAND COALITION OF FIANNA FAIL, A FINE GAEL r AND THE P D 'S WOULD BE FORMED, ENABLING THE LEFT PARTIES TO CLEARLY EMERGE AS THE VOICE OF OPPOSITION. WITH SUCH A GRAND COALITION COMMITTED TO CONTINUING FISCAL RETRENCHMENT, THE LEFT SAW AN ELECTORAL FEAST IN STORE ON PRECISELY THE SPENDING ISSUES (HEALTH SERVICES, UNEMPLOYMENT, EMIGRATION) WHICH SERVED THEM SO WELL IN THE RECENT ELECTIONS. A LEFT-RIGHT DIVIDE ON THE IRISH POLITICAL LANDSCAPE BECKONED THEM. BUT BLOCKING THAT ENTICING VISION, AFTER WEDNESDAY'S EVENTS, IS THE SOLID BLOC OF 55 FINE GAEL SEATS, BACK IN THEIR TRADITIONAL ROLE OF THE MAJOR OPPOSITION TO A FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT. INDEED, FINE GAEL LEADER ALAN DUKES DEVOTED A GOOD PORTION OF HIS STATEMENT ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT TO A SCORNFUL DISMISSAL OF THE LEFT'S PRETENSIONS--"POLITICAL IMPOTENCE AND ANALYTICAL STERILITY. " 16. BUT WHERE FINE GAEL WILL LEAD THE OPPOSITION ISN'T CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 04044 04 OF 04 141716Z SO CLEAR EITHER. DUKES HAS ALREADY RULED OUT "OPPOSITION FOR OPPOSITION'S SAKE," TERMING THAT A FIANNA FAIL METHOD. SPECIFICALLY, FINE GAEL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RESPONSIBLE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MEASURES PUT FORTH BY THE GOVERNMENT. SOURCES IN DUKES' OFFICE HAVE SPOKEN TO US OF A "SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC" OPPOSITION. THE IDEA HERE IS THAT FINE GAEL WILL STAMP OUT ITS OPPOSITION CREDENTIALS PRIMARILY ON SOCIAL ISSUES, SUCH AS FAMILY LAW AND EMIGRANT AID (ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN LARGELY CO-OPTED BY THE FIANNA FAIL-PD PACT WHICH UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686390 Date: U9/U4/2U12 ENVISAGES A NEW ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OFFICE HEADED BY PD JUNIOR MINISTER MARY HARNEY). BUT SOCIAL DEMOCRACY HAS NOT YET WON THE SOUL OF FINE GAEL, PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE DUBLIN WHERE THE LOCAL NOTABLES OF SMALL TOWNS STILL SUP REGULARLY WITH THE PARISH PASTOR. A HAUGHEY COUP, AFTER ALL? 17. IN THE END, IT WOULD SEEM, AFTER ALL, THAT HAUGHEY, THE GREAT SURVIVOR OF IRISH POLITICS, HAS ONCE AGAIN FASHIONED A VICTORY FROM DEFEAT. IN WELCOMING BACK HIS LONG-TIME POLITICAL ENEMIES, HE PROJECTS MAGNANIMITY. IN ENTERING A COALITION, HE HAS PUT NATIONAL INTERESTS ABOVE SECTARIAN PARTY CONCERNS. HE STILL HAS FINE GAEL IN HIS POCKET ON THE ESSENTIAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ISSUES. HE HAS BLUNTED THE VOICE OF THE LEFT. AND HE HAS FOUR YEARS (INCLUDING THE EC PRESIDENCY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT YEAR) TO STAMP HIS FINAL MARK ON IRISH HISTORY AND ARRANGE A STATESMANLIKE EXIT FROM THE POLITICAL SCENE. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 04044 04 OF 04 141716Z HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686390 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686391 Date: 09/04/2012 J T J 2 2 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION DS-01 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 DODE-OO CTME-00 INRE-00 FBIE-00 /038 W LOG-00 EB-00 AMAD-01 CCO-OO JUSE-00 P-02 04213 201409Z AID-00 NSCE-00 NRCE-00 OCS-O 6 OC-Ol INR-07 NSAE-00 TRSE-00 CA-02 DOEE-OO EUR-00 COME-00 PM-10 CG-00 M-01 -071546 SS-00 SSO-OO PA-01 USSS-00 FAIM-01 CIAE-00 L-03 FAAE-00 USIE-00 SCT-02 202056Z /70 38 R 201319Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2542 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 04213 LONDON PLEASE PASS BELFAST [RELEASED IN FULL| E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: ASEC, PTER, CASC, UK, El SUBJECT: PIRA BOMBINGS OF NORTHERN IRELAND RAILROADS; POSSIBLE TRAVEL ADVISORY REF: (A) BELFAST 0172, 1. (B) BELFAST 0173 (C-ENTIRE TEXT). 2. NEWLY APPOINTED IRISH FOREIGN MINISTER GERRY COLLINS TOOK ME ASIDE AT HIS INITIAL MEETING WITH THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS JULY 19 TO CONVEY A MESSAGE FROM PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRAVEL ADVISORY RELATED TO CURRENT PIRA BOMBINGS OF NORTHERN IRELAND RAILROADS. COLLINS SAID THE GOI HAD HAD WORD FROM ITS EMBASSY IN WASHINGTON THAT THE DEPARTMENT WAS CONSIDERING ISSUING A TRAVEL ADVISORY OR WARNING TO AMERICAN CITIZENS TRAVELING TO NORTHERN IRELAND. HE ARGUED THAT THE SITUATION DID NOT MERIT SUCH DRASTIC ACTION AND URGED, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 04213 201409Z IN THE STRONGEST TERMS, THAT WE NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. HE SAID AN ADVISORY WOULD HAVE THREE NEGATIVE EFFECTS: -- IT WOULD GRANT THE PIRA A MAJOR PROPAGANDA VICTORY; [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686391 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department or state uase n o . r-z u iu -u /s u u u o c imo. o i / d o d j b i -AND u a ie . IT WOULD ADVERSELY AFFECT TOURISM NORTH AND SOUTH; -- IT WOULD HAVE A LONG-TERM NEGATIVE IMPACT ON INVESTMENT IN NORTHERN IRELAND WHICH IS CRUCIAL TO DRY UP PIRA'S RECRUITING POOL AMONG THE UNEMPLOYED. 3. I PROMISED COLLINS I WOULD RELAY HIS VIEWS TO WASHINGTON AND THAT I WOULD KEEP HIM INFORMED OF OUR DELIBERATIONS. 4. EARLIER, DFA OFFICIALS HAD RAISED THE ISSUE WITH THE DCM IN SIMILAR TERMS. THE IRISH BELIEVE PIRA'S PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVE IN DISRUPTING THE RAIL LINE IS TO DRAW THE BRITISH ARMY INTO PATROLING THE LINE IN RURAL ARMAGH WHERE THEY WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO AMBUSH. ALREADY ONE BOMB ALONG THE LINE HAS BEEN DETONATED AS AN ARMY PATROL PASSED. 5. ACCORDING TO DFA, THERE HAVE BEEN APPROXIMATELY 50 DISRUPTIONS OF THE LINE SINCE THE DECEMBER 16 EXPLOSION WHICH BEGAN THE PIRA CAMPAIGN. THERE HAVE BEEN QUITE A NUMBER OF WARNING CALLS, ALL OF WHICH RESULT IN STOPPING THE TRAINS UNTIL THE TRACK CAN BE CHECKED. A FEW BOMBS HAVE BEEN DEFUSED. THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF HOAXES. OF THE 18 ACTUAL EXPLOSIONS, NOT ONE HAS BEEN DETONATED UNDER OR NEAR A TRAIN AND IN EVERY CASE OF AN EXPLOSION SO FAR, PIRA HAS GIVEN THE RAIL AUTHORITIES AMPLE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 04213 201409Z WARNING TO STOP TRAINS AND AVOID LOSS OF INNOCENT PASSENGER LIVES. 6. COMMENT: FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, THE SITUATION NOT YET SEEM TO WARRANT A TRAVEL ADVISORY OR OTHER WARNING TO THE TRAVELING PUBLIC. IN FACT, WE TEND AGREE WITH THE IRISH THAT UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES, ADVISORY WOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL PROPAGANDA VICTORY THE PIRA. END COMMENT. WOULD PUBLIC TO AN FOR HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686391 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. l--^u iu -u /,yuu uoc i\ i o . u i/,t>eeo>>z uaie: u >> /u ^/^u i^ p j y ^ CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN 04506 INFO ADS-00 NSCE-00 PA-01 SNP-01 INR-0 7 ARA-00 OMB-01 PRS-01 LOG-OO NEA-0 6 PM-10 SP-02 01 OF 02 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSAE-00 HA-09 L-03 INRE-00 SSC-01 ACDA-12 /058 W P-02 T-01 ?227500 281717Z /46 R 281551Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2603 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L 281602Z H-01 TRSE-00 USIE-00 RELEASED IN PART B1 SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 04506 LONDON PLEASE PASS BELFAST E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, El SUBJECT: IRELAND'S NEW FOREIGN MINISTER REF: 1. DUBLIN 4044 (C-ENTIRE TEXT) . 2. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE IRISH CABINET OCCASIONED BY THE FORMATION OF THE NEW GOVERNMENT (REFTEL) WAS THE REPLACEMENT OF BRIAN LENIHAN AS FOREIGN MINISTER BY GERRY COLLINS, THE FORMER JUSTICE MINISTER. THOUGH NECESSITATED BY THE NEED TO SAFEGUARD LENIHAN'S FRAIL HEALTH FOLLOWING HIS RECENT LIVER TRANSPLANT, THE PROMOTION OF THE VETERAN COLLINS ALSO SEEMED DESIGNED TO UNDERLINE THE MESSAGE THAT THERE WOULD BE NO/NO CHANGES IN IRISH FOREIGN POLICY. C lassification Extended on : 09/04/2012 ~ Class: SECRET ~ A uthority: DSCG 11-1 - Declassify on:07-27-2014___________________________ BACKGROUND CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 04506 01 OF 02 281602Z 3. COLLINS, AGED 50, FIRST SERVED AS A JUNIOR MINISTER IN 1969 JUST TWO YEARS AFTER FIRST BEING ELECTED TO THE IRISH PARLIAMENT IN SUCCESSION TO HIS FATHER WHO HAD HELD THE SEAT FOR TWO DECADES. HE WAS PROMOTED TO THE REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686392 Date: 09/04/2012 u w o i - Mo o i r i c u u . o . u e p a r x m e m or o i a i e o a s e n u . r - / u i u - u / 3u u u u t ; i nu. u h d o d j s / CABINET IN 1970 AND HAS SAT IN EVERY FIANNA FAIL CABINET SINCE, SERVING TWICE AS MINISTER FOR JUSTICE, 1977-81 AND 1987-89. HE ALSO SERVED AS MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS IN THE SHORT-LIVED HAUGHEY GOVERNMENT IN 1982. uaie. u s i u ^ /u i z 4. FROM HIS EARLIEST DAYS IN GOVERNMENT, COLLINS WAS WIDELY REGARDED AS ONE OF THE MOST TALENTED, POLITICALLY OF HIS GENERATION OF FIANNA FAIL POLITICIANS. IN 1970, IN RETURN FOR HIS FIRST CABINET POST, E BACKED THEN PRIME MINISTER JACK LYNCH IN THE POLITICAL CRISIS PRECIPITATED BY LYNCH'S DISMISSAL FROM THE CABINET OF CHARLES HAUGHEY AND NEIL BLANEY (UNTIL THEN, COLLINS' POLITICAL MENTOR) OVER ARMS SMUGGLING CHARGES. IN 1982, COLLINS BRIEFLY CHALLENGED HAUGHEY FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF FIANNA FAIL BUT WITHDREW BEFORE THE PARLIAMENTARY PARTY VOTE. IN BOTH CASES, COLLINS' TOUGHNESS AND TALENT (NOT TO SPEAK OF HIS WELL-OILED LOCAL POLITICAL MACHINE) ENSURED THAT HIS WORKING RELATIONSHIP WITH HAUGHEY WOULD REMAIN CORRECT. HOWEVER, DESPITE THEIR LONG YEARS TOGETHER IN CABINET, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THE SORT OF PERSONAL AFFECTION WHICH HAS LONG EXISTED BETWEEN HAUGHEY AND BRIAN LENIHAN. COLLINS REMAINS A CONTENDER TO SUCCEED HAUGHEY SHOULD THE PRIME MINISTER DECIDE TO STEP DOWN WITHIN THE FOUR-YEAR TERM OF THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT, THOUGH THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS THAT FINANCE MINISTER ALBERT REYNOLDS WOULD HAVE THE EDGE. POLICY VIEWS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 04506 01 OF 02 281602Z 5. A COMMONPLACE REMARK IS THAT THE IRISH FOREIGN MINISTER HAS A ONE-ITEM AGENDA - NORTHERN IRELAND. IN COLLINS' CASE, LARGELY DUE UNDOUBTEDLY TO HIS LONG SERVICE AS JUSTICE MINISTER, THE ONLY FOREIGN AFFAIRS AREA WHERE HE HAS MADE PUBLIC COMMENTS HAS, INDEED, BEEN THAT OF NORHTERN IRELAND. IN THE PAST, HE DESCRIBED BRITAIN'S PRESENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AS AN "OCCUPATION." MORE RECENTLY, HE REACTED TO THE DECISION OF THE BRITISH ATTORNEY GENERAL NOT TO PROCEED WITH PROSECUTION IN THE ALLEDGED "SHOOT-TO-KILL" CASES FOR "REASONS OF NATIONAL INTEREST," THOUGH THERE WAS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE OF OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE TO WARRANT PROSECUTION, BY DESCRIBING THE UK ATTORNEY UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686392 Date; 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686392 Date: 09/04/2012 GENERAL AS "UNFIT TO HOLD OFFICE." WERE INDICATIVE OF COLLINS' IS, REPUTEDLY, A HARD MAN TO WORK FOR. HE IS, ALSO, HOWEVER, ASTUTE AND A PROFESSIONAL. HE HAS WORKED TO MEND HIS FENCES WITH HIS BRITISH COUNTERPARTS; AND, AS A REGULAR PARTICIPANT IN THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE OF THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT, HE HAS CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO HEIGHTENED CROSS-BORDER SECURITY COOPERATION WITH THE BRITISH. INDEED, THE BRITISH TELL US (DUBLIN 2417) THAT, IN THEIR VIEW, ANGLO-IRISH SECURITY COOPERATION IS IN ITS BEST EVER CONDITION. COLLINS HAS ALSO FULLY BACKED THE HAUGHEY GOVERNMENT'S DETERMINATION TO PRESS AHEAD WITH EXTRADITION OF IRA SUSPECTS TO THE NORTH, DESPITE THE OFTEN-VIOLENT GROUNDSWELL OF OPPOSITION TO THIS AMONG FIANNA FAIL RANK-AND-FILE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT COLLINS WILL SEEK TO DEVELOP WITH THE NEW NORTHERN CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN 04506 INFO ADS-00 NSCE-00 PA-01 SNP-01 INR-07 ARA-00 OMB-01 PRS-01 LOG-00 NEA-06 PM-10 SP-02 02 OF 02 281602Z CIAE-00 DODE-OO SS-00 L-03 NSAE-00 HA-09 INRE-00 SSC-01 ACDA-12 /058 W P-02 T-01 ?227440 281718Z /46 H-01 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R 281551Z JUL 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2604 INFO EC COLLECTIVE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686392 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686392 Date: u a /u 4 /^u i^ C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 DUBLIN 04506 LONDON PLEASE PASS BELFAST IRELAND SECRETARY, PETER BROOKE, THE SAME EXCELLENT WORKING RELATIONSHIP ENJOYED BY THEIR PREDECESSORS, BRIAN LENIHAN AND TOM KING. HOWEVER, WHILE LENIHAN AND KING SPOKE THE SAME LANGUAGE (AND CRACKED JOKES AT THE END OF THE WORKING DAY OVER A COUPLE OF LARGE WHISKEYS), THE PERSONALITIES OF THE TWO NEW MEN SEEM QUITE DIFFERENT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER CONTACT WILL BE MADE OR SPARKS WILL FLY WHEN BROOKE'S OXBRIDGE MANNERISMS RUN UP AGAINST COLLINS' BLUFF IRISHNESS. 7. ON OTHER FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES - CENTRAL AMERICA, LIBYA, DISARMAMENT, THE ARAB/ISRAELI CONFLICT - COLLINS IS EXPECTED TO CAREFULLY FOLLOW THE MEASURED PATH OF HIS PREDECESSOR, ISSUING RHETORICAL EXHORTATIONS ON SUCH AS DISARMAMENT AND HEWING TO THE EC CONSENSUS ON SUCH AS LIBYA OR NICARAGUA. HECKLER CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686392 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 j ? 2 4 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-0 0 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 /039 W LOG-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 T-01 03762 01 OF 02 INR-0 7 HA-09 USIE-00 SS-00 L-03 SP-02 301732Z CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 -005537 DODE-OO PM-10 PRS-01 010853Z /24 R 301524Z JUN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2395 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L H-01 PA-01 P-02 RELEASED IN FULL SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 03762 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH ELECTIONS: STILL NO NEW GOVERNMENT REF: DUBLIN 3581 1. (C--ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. THE NEW IRISH PARLIAMENT FORMALLY CONVENED YESTERDAY, THURSDAY, 29 JUNE, IN AN ATMOSPHERE OF HIGH DRAMA. WITH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY FACING DEFEAT IN HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION, IT WAS CLEAR THAT THE NEW POWER RELATIONSHIPS IN THE PARLIAMENT HAD NOT YET COALESCED. THE RESULT WAS A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE OF A DAY, FROM SURPRISE TO THE FOREGONE TO A MINI-CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS. RE-ELECTION OF THE SPEAKER 3. AS THE FIRST ITEM OF BUSINESS, IT WAS WIDELY ANTICIPATED THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTIES WOULD UNITE AND USE THEIR MAJORITY TO ELECT THE FINE GAEL CANDIDATE IN PLACE OF THE OUTGOING SPEAKER WHO WAS RENOMINATED BY FIANNA FAIL. CLASHES, OFTEN QUITE BITTER, BETWEEN THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 03762 01 OF 02 301732Z SPEAKER AND OPPOSITION PARTY DEPUTIES HAD BEEN A FREQUENT, OFTEN DAILY, OCCURRENCE IN THE LAST PARLIAMENT. HE HAD BEEN WIDELY ACCUSED OF HEWING TO THE GOVERNMENT'S LINE ON ALL PARLIAMENTARY DISPUTES. BUT [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 WHEN THE VOTE WAS TAKEN, THE WORKERS' PARTY DEPUTIES JOINED WITH THE GOVERNING FIANNA FAIL PARTY TO GIVE THE OUTGOING SPEAKER THE VICTORY. 4. RE-ELECTING THE SPEAKER WAS CONSIDERED VITAL FOR HAUGHEY. HE HAD BEEN ELECTED PRIME MINISTER IN MARCH 1987 ON THE SPEAKER'S CASTING VOTE AND COULD WELL NEED THAT VOTE AGAIN. BUT BEING ABLE TO STRIKE A DEAL WITH THE HARD-LEFT WORKERS' PARTY, AND IN EVIDENTLY TOTAL SECRECY (NO-ONE SEEMS YET TO KNOW THE ACTUAL TERMS OF THE DEAL), IS THE SORT OF POLITICAL MASTER-STROKE THAT SHOWS HAUGHEY HASN'T LOST HIS SKILLS. DEFEAT FOR PRIME MINISTER 5. BUT HIS RE-ELECTION AS PRIME MINISTER ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW PARLIAMENT WAS FOREDOOMED. WITH 7 7 SEATS, HAUGHEY NEEDED SIX VOTES FOR A BARE MAJORITY. IN THE FORTNIGHT SINCE THE ELECTIONS ON 15 JUNE, HE HAD BEEN CONDUCTING TALKS WITH THE OPPOSITION PARTIES. THE LEFTIST LABOUR AND WORKERS' PARTIES ANNOUNCED THEIR OPPOSITION. THE MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTY, FINE GAEL, TABLED STRONG DEMANDS OF EQUAL CABINET SEATS AND A ROTATING PRIME MINISTERSHIP WITH HAUGHEY HOLDING THE OFFICE FOR TWO YEARS AND THE FINE GAEL LEADER ALAN DUKES SUCCEEDING FOR TWO YEARS. THE DEMANDS WERE REJECTED BY HAUGHEY AS OUTRAGEOUS. INDEED, MOST POLITICAL COMMENTATORS FELT THEY WERE DESIGNED TO BE REJECTED WITH FINE GAEL DETERMINED NOT TO RE-LIVE THEIR EXPERIENCE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 03762 01 OF 02 301732Z OF THE LAST TWO PLUS YEARS WHERE THEIR POLICY OF SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S FISCAL AND ECONOMIC POLICIES HAD NOT MET WITH RECIPROCITY ON THE PART OF THE GOVERNMENT. THIS TIME, FINE GAEL WAS DETERMINED EITHER TO HAVE A PIECE OF AUTHORITY OR TO GO INTO OUTRIGHT OPPOSITION. 6. THIS LEFT THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS WITH THEIR SIX SEATS. THEY HAD ALREADY ANNOUNCED THAT THEY WOULD FULFILL THEIR ELECTION-PACT AGREEMENT TO VOTE FOR DUKES FOR PRIME MINISTER ON THE FIRST VOTE. IT WAS ALSO KNOWN THAT THEY WERE INTERNALLY SPLIT OVER WHETHER OR NOT THEY WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT HAUGHEY. ALL SIX HAD LEFT FIANNA FAIL BECAUSE OF THEIR OPPOSITION TO THE HAUGHEY LEADERSHIP OF THE PARTY. THREE ARE KNOWN TO STILL FEEL A DEEP SENSE OF PERSONAL BITTERNESS TOWARDS HAUGHEY, AND UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 THEY HAVE BEEN PUBLICLY PROPOSING THAT HAUGHEY SHOULD STEP ASIDE AND ALLOW ANOTHER FIANNA FAIL LEADER TO STAND FOR PRIME MINISTER. THEIR HARD-LINE STANCE RECEIVED A SMALL JOLT, HOWEVER, IN THE VOTE ON HAUGHEY'S NOMINATION, WHERE, THOUGH HE LOST AS EXPECTED, HE DID PICK UP THE VOTE OF ONE OF THE INDEPENDENTS. WITH SIX INDEPENDENTS OF VARYING POLITICAL PERSUASION, A FEW ARRANGED ABSTENTIONS COULD LEAVE HAUGHEY NEEDING ONLY HALF OF THE PD'S. HIS STROKE WITH THE WORKERS' PARTY ON THE RE ELECTION OF THE SPEAKER SHOWED THAT HAUGHEY STILL HAS CARDS TO PLAY. 7. COMING FACE-TO-FACE WITH THE NEW REALITIES IN THE PARLIAMENT MAY ALSO SERVE TO SOFTEN THE P D 'S . HAVING DROPPED FROM 14 SEATS TO SIX, MOVING THEM BELOW THE NUMBER REQUIRED FOR PARLIAMENTARY GROUP STATUS, YESTERDAY SAW THE PD'S FORCED TO MOVE FROM THEIR FRONT-BENCH SEATS TO THE VERY BACK AND WATCH THE WORKERS' PARTY MOVE CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 /039 W LOG-OO NSCE-00 OMB-01 T-01 03762 02 OF 02 INR-07 HA-09 USIE-00 SS-00 L-03 SP-02 301732Z CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 -005536 DODE-OO PM-10 PRS-01 H-01 PA-01 P-02 010853Z /24 R 301524Z JUN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2396 INFO EC COLLECTIVE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LAS SIFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 SECTION 0 2 OF 02 DUBLIN 0 3 7 6 2 C O N F I D E N T I A L INTO THEIR FORMER PLACES. THEY WERE VISIBLY DEFLATED THROUGHOUT YESTERDAY'S SESSION. PERSONAL HUMILIATION 8. FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTIES, PARTICULARLY FINE GAEL AND LABOUR, YESTERDAY WAS ALSO THE OCCASION TO BRING HOME TO HAUGHEY THE HARD FACT THAT HE HAD LOST THE ELECTION. CONSEQUENTLY, WHEN HAUGHEY MOVED THE ADJOURNMENT AFTER THE PRIME MINISTERIAL VOTING, THE OPPOSITION PARTIES INSISTED THAT THE IRISH CONSTITUTION REQUIRED HAUGHEY, HAVING LOST THE SUPPORT OF A MAJORITY OF PARLIAMENT, TO RESIGN. A CURIOUS SCENARIO THEN PLAYED OUT-- WITH HAUGHEY FIRST RESISTING THIS INTERPRETATION, THEN RECESSING THE SITTING FOR TWO HOURS, AND THEN RETURNING TO PLACIDLY ANNOUNCE THAT HE WOULD BE SHORTLY ON HIS WAY TO TENDER HIS RESIGNATION TO THE PRESIDENT. IN EFFECT, THE OTHER PARTIES WERE ATTEMPTING TO PUNISH WHAT THEY SEE AS FIANNA FAIL ARROGANCE. DESPITE ACTUALLY LOSING SEATS IN THE ELECTION, HAUGHEY AND FIANNA FAIL WERE STILL ACTING AS THOUGH THEY HAD THE RIGHT TO FORM A SINGLE-PARTY GOVERNMENT. THE OPPOSITION BACKBENCHERS WERE LOUDLY GLEEFUL IN THE PARLIAMENT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 03762 02 OF 0 2 301732Z CORRIDORS AT HAVING FORCED HAUGHEY INTO RESIGNATION, IF ONLY A PRO FORMA AND BRIEF ONE. 9. THIS WILL HAVE NO PRACTICAL EFFECT. HAUGHEY AND HIS GOVERNMENT STAY ON AS CARETAKERS. TALKS AMONG THE PARTIES WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FOCUS ON THE P D 'S AND HOW HIGH A PRICE THEY'LL BE SETTING. HOWEVER, AS IT SEEMS INCONCEIVABLE THAT THE OTHER PARTIES COULD UNITE IN SUPPORT OF ONE OF THEIR OWN FOR PRIME MINISTER, GIVEN THEIR WIDELY DISPARATE POLITICAL POLICIES AND AGENDAS, AND AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY REVOLT BREWING WITHIN FIANNA FAIL RANKS, HAUGHEY IS NOT WITHOUT HIS OWN LEVERAGE. WITH ALL PARTIES AGREEING THAT NO-ONE WANTS ANOTHER ELECTION, THE STARK CHOICE--HAUGHEY OR AN ELECTION--LEAVES EVERYONE ASSUMING THAT HAUGHEY WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A MINORITY GOVERNMENT YET ONCE AGAIN. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686393 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686394 Date: 09/04/2012 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 PA-01 P-02 LOG-OO NSCE-00 PM-10 PRS-01 03514 190841Z SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO H-01 HA-09 L-03 AMAD-01 TRSE-00 SNP-01 INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 /040 W ----- 260315 190850Z /10 38 INR-0 7 SSO-OO OMB-01 T-01 O 171244Z JUN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2329 DECONTROLLED LIMITED OFFICIAL USE DUBLIN 03514 1 ----------FOR EUR/NE [RELEASED IN FULL| E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH GENERAL ELECTIONS: SHORT HAUGHEY FALLS REF: DUBLIN 3424 1. AFTER THE FIRST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS OF THE COUNT AND WITH A SIXTH OF THE SEATS STILL UNDECIDED OR SUBJECT TO RECOUNT, A NUMBER OF RESULTS HAVE EMERGED. FIRST, PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY NOT ONLY FAILED TO ACHIEVE HIS MAJORITY BUT WILL ACTUALLY SEE HIS FIANNA FAIL PARTY RETURN WITH A NET LOSS. SECOND, AS WIDELY ANTICIPATED, THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN DECIMATED THIRD, THE SHIFT TO THE LEFT WHICH WAS THE BIG DEVELOPMENT OF THE THREE-WEEK CAMPAIGN PRODUCED NOT ONLY GAINS FOR BOTH THE LABOUR PARTY AND THE WORKERS' PARTY BUT ALSO THE ELECTION OF A GREEN. 2. THE PROJECTED RETURNS ARE: LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 - DUBLIN --FIANNA FAIL: --FINE GAEL: --LABOUR: --PROGRESSIVE [REVIEW AUTHORITY: 03514 190841Z 7 7 (81 IN THE 87 ELECTIONS) 55 (51) 15 (12) Robert Homme, S enior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686394 Date: 09/04/2012 E25 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686394 Date: 09/04/2012 - DEMOCRATS --WORKERS' PARTY --INDEPENDENTS: 6 (14) 7 (4) 6 (4) 3. PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY HAS ANNOUNCED THAT HE WILL BE STANDING FOR RE-ELECTION AS PRIME MINISTER WHEN THE NEW DAIL CONVENES IN TWO WEEKS TIME. HE IS DECLINING TO EXPAND ON THAT FLAT STATEMENT, AND OTHER FIANNA FAIL LEADERS ARE KEEPING THEIR OWN COUNSEL IN PUBLIC. BOTH FINE GAEL AND LABOUR HAVE ANNOUNCED THAT THEY WOULD OPPOSE HAUGHEY. DES O'MALLEY, LEADER OF THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS, HAS NOT COMMITTED HIMSELF EXCEPT TO NOTE THAT THE PD'S COULD, IRONICALLY, BE IN A STRONGER POSITION WITH 6 SEATS THAN THEY WERE WITH 14, SINCE 77 FIANNA FAIL AND 6 PD EQUAL 83, PRECISELY A WORKING MAJORITY IN A PARLIAMENT OF 166 SEATS WHERE THE SPEAKER DOES NOT VOTE EXCEPT IN CASE OF A TIE. HECKLER LIMITED OFFICIAL USE NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686394 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 ?<< 2 g UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 BELFAS INFO ADS-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 T-01 LOG-OO MSC-01 PA-02 P-02 00133 01 OF 03 INR-0 7 NSAE-00 INRE-00 /041 W SS-00 HA-09 USIE-00 020925Z CIAE-00 L-03 SP-02 -012533 DODE-OO TRSE-00 SNP-01 H-01 PM-10 PRS-01 041454Z /48 R 020745Z JUN 89 FM AMCONSUL BELFAST TO SECSTATE WASHDC 614 9 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY DUBLIN AMCONSUL EDINBURGH UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELFAST 0133 RELEASED IN FULL E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, UK, El SUBJECT: REVIEW OF WORKINGS OF ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT COMPLETED. 1. SUMMARY ON MAY 24, THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE REVIEW OF THE WORKINGS OF THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT'S (AIA) INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE WERE PUBLISHED. THE RELEASE OF THE REVIEW WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A JOINT BRITISH AND IRISH GOVERNMENT STATEMENT REAFFIRMING BOTH GOVERNMENT'S FULL COMMITMENT TO ALL OF THE AIA'S PROVISIONS. THE REVIEW, WHICH WAS REQUIRED BY ARTICLE 11 OF THE AIA, STATED NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE AIA. THE TWO SIDES PLEDGED, HOWEVER, THAT THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE WOULD UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 BELFAS 00133 01 OF 03 020925Z FURTHER DEVELOP AND ENHANCE THE AIA BY HOLDING 10 MEETINGS PER YEAR, BROADENING THE MEETINGS' AGENDA TO INCLUDE ECONOMIC AND HEALTH ISSUES, AND MONITORING SYSTEMATICALLY COMPLAINTS AGAINST THE SECURITY FORCES. CERTAIN MEASURES ADOPTED BY THE BRITISH [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C1 7685395 Date: Uy/U4/2U12 GOVERNMENT SUCH AS THE ROYAL ULSTER CONSTABULARY CODE OF CONDUCT WERE PRAISED, BUT THE REVIEW ADMITTED "WORK REMAINS TO BE DONE" TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE SECURITY FORCES. THE REVIEW REVEALED BASIC DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE ISSUES OF ONE-JUDGE DIPLOCK COURTS, WHICH THE IRISH DEMAND BE REPLACED BY THREE-JUDGE COURTS, AND EXTRADITION, WHICH WILL "CONTINUE TO BE DISCUSSED." 2. THE TWO SIDES REITERATED THEIR COMMITMENT TO DEVOLUTION AND CROSS-BORDER SECURITY COOPERATION. THE WORK OF THE INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR IRELAND WAS PRAISED, ESPECIALLY ITS PRESENT EMPHASIS ON DISADVANTAGED AREAS. IN A GESTURE TO UNIONISTS, THE REVIEW SAID THE GOVERNMENTS WOULD BE "READY IN PRINCIPLE" TO RESPOND IF IT APPEARED THAT "THE OBJECTIVES OF THE AGREEMENT COULD MORE EFFECTIVELY BE SERVED BY CHANGES IN THE SCOPE AND NATURE OF THE WORKING OF THE CONFERENCE." UNIONIST LEADERS RESPONDED BY HEAPING SCORN ON THE AIA AND THE REVIEW, WHILE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC AND LABOR PARTY (SDLP) LEADER JOHN HUME PRAISED THE AIA'S PROGRESS. ALLIANCE PARTY CHIEF JOHN ALDERDICE LAMENTED THE REVIEW HAD PAID "SO LITTLE ATTENTION TO THE ATTAINMENT OF DEVOLUTION." END SUMMARY. 3. BRITISH - IRISH GOVERNMENTS REAFFIRM COMMITMENT TO AIA UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 BELFAS 00133 01 OF 03 020925Z THE 27TH MEETING OF THE ANGLO-IRISH INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE, HELD IN BELFAST ON MAY 24, CONCLUDED WITH THE RELEASE OF THE FINDINGS OF A REVIEW OF THE WORKINGS OF THE AIA'S INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE. ARTICLE 11 OF THE AIA HAD REQUIRED THE REVIEW. A JOINT STATEMENT ISSUED AFTER THE MEETING SAID THE REVIEW HAD "EXAMINED THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE CONFERENCE IN TERMS OF STATED OBJECTIVES" OF THE AIA AND "HAD CONSIDERED WHETHER ANY CHANGES IN THE SCOPE AND NATURE OF THE CONFERENCE'S ACTIVITIES WERE DESIREABLE." THE STATEMENT CONTINUED "HAVING CONDUCTED THE REVIEW, THE TWO GOVERNMENTS REAFFIRM THEIR FULL COMMITMENT TO ALL OF THE PROVISIONS OF THE AGREEMENT." THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT WAS REPRESENTED AT THE MEETING BY NORTHERN IRELAND SECRETARY OF STATE TOM KING AND MINISTER OF STATE IAN STEWART, AND THE IRISH GOVERNMENT BY JUSTICE MINISTER GERARD COLLINS AND INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE MINISTER RAY BURKE. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 4. CHANGES TO ENHANCE PROCESS WHILE STATING THAT THE AIA NEEDED "NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE AT PRESENT," THE REVIEW OUTLINED THE FOLLOWING STEPS WHICH WILL BE TAKEN "TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE THE AGREEMENT." -- THERE WILL BE A REGULAR SCHEDULE OF 10 INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE MEETINGS A YEAR. THIS "SHOULD GIVE BOTH SIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO CONSIDER FORTHCOMING DEVELOPMENTS ON A SYSTEMATIC BASIS, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY PROBLEMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AND RESOLVED, AND REDUCING THE RISK OF MISUNDERSTANDING OR CONFRONTATION." -- MORE MINISTERS FROM EACH SIDE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE MEETINGS TO DEAL WITH A GREATER RANGE OF ISSUES, INCLUDING TRANSPORT, TOURISM, COMMUNICATIONS, INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, ENERGY, AND HEALTH. -- THERE WILL BE A SYSTEMATIC MONITORING OF THE NATURE, PATTERN AND HANDLING OF COMPLAINTS AGAINST THE SECURITY FORCES. -- THERE WILL BE FULLER PUBLIC INFORMATION ON THE DISCUSSIONS UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 BELFAS 00133 01 OF 03 020925Z OF THE CONFERENCE. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO BELFAS 00133 02 OF 03 020929Z LOG-00 MSC-01 PA-02 P-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSCE-00 NSAE-00 HA-09 L-03 TRSE-00 OMB-Ol INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 SNP-01 T-01 /041 W ------------------ 012705 041455Z /48 R 020750Z JUN 89 FM AMCONSUL BELFAST TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6150 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY DUBLIN AMCONSUL EDINBURGH H-01 PM-10 PRS-01 UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 BELFAST 0133 5. CONFIDENCE IN SECURITY FORCES AND SYSTEM OF JUSTICE THE REVIEW EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE BOTH SIDES ATTACHED TO CONFIDENCE IN THE SECURITY FORCES AND THE ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE. WHILE NEW MEASURES SUCH AS THE ROYAL ULSTER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C1768639b Date: U9/U4/^U1^ CONSTABULARY'S CODE OF CONDUCT WERE PRAISED, IT WAS ADMITTED "WORK REMAINS TO DONE," AND THE CONFERENCE WAS COMMITTED TO REVIEW PROGRESS IN THIS AREA ON A REGULAR BASIS. A NOTE OF DISCORD WAS SOUNDED BY THE IRISH REITERATION OF THEIR DEMAND THAT THREE-JUDGE COURTS REPLACE THE PRESENT ONE-JUDGE DIPLOCK SYSTEM. THE BRITISH SAID THEY "WERE NOT YET PERSUADED OF THE MERITS OF THIS PROPOSAL." EXTRADITION WAS ANOTHER AREA OF DISAGREEMENT. THE REVIEW DOCUMENT SAID "THERE HAD BEEN EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION OF THESE MATTERS," AND THE TWO GOVERNMENTS WILL CONTINUE "THEIR EXAMINATION OF THESE MATTERS." 6. DEVOLUTION UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 BELFAS 00133 02 OF 03 020929Z THE REVIEW STATED IT CONTINUED "TO BE THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT'S POLICY, SUPPORTED BY THE IRISH GOVERNMENT, TO ENCOURAGE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE DEVOLUTION OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR CERTAIN POWERS TO ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES IN NORTHERN IRELAND AS SET OUT IN ARTICLE FOUR OF THE AGREEMENT." 7. RIGHTS AND IDENTITIES OF THE TWO TRADITIONS IN THE REVIEW, THE IRISH GOVERNMENT SAID IT WELCOMED A NUMBER OF POSITIVE MEASURES INTRODUCED BY THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT TO "ACCOMMODATE THE RIGHTS AND IDENTITIES OF THE TWO TRADITIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND, TO PROTECT HUMAN RIGHTS AND PREVENT DISCRIMINATION." THESE INCLUDED THE REPEAL OF THE FLAGS AND EMBLEMS ACT AND THE ENACTMENT OF PUBLIC ORDER (NI) ORDER 198 7 WHICH ENHANCED THE POWERS OF THE POLICE TO CONTROL POTENTIALLY PROVOCATIVE MARCHES. THE REVIEW ADDED THAT THE PROPOSED FAIR EMPLOYMENT LEGISLATION HAD BEEN THE SUBJECT OF DETAILED DISCUSSION IN THE CONFERENCE MEETINGS. THE IRISH GOVERNMENT STATED IT "WELCOMED THE LAUNCHING BY THE BRITISH OF A PROGRAM OF ACTION TO ADDRESS THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS IN THE MOST DISADVANTAGED AREAS OF BELFAST AND OTHER DEPRIVED AREAS." 8. SECURITY COOPERATION THE TWO SIDES PLEDGED TO CONTINUE CLOSE COOPERATION AGAINST TERRORISM AND TO REVIEW REGULARLY PROGRESS IN CROSS-BORDER SECURITY. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686395 Date: U9/U4/2U12 9. INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR IRELAND UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 BELFAS 00133 02 OF 03 020929Z THE GOVERNMENTS EXPRESSED "THEIR APPRECIATION OF THE GENEROSITY OF THE DONORS TO THE INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR IRELAND," AND SAID THEY "WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE EVERY SUPPORT TO THE WORK OF THE FUND AND THE EMPHASIS IT IS NOW PLACING ON IMPROVING THE POSITION IN THE MOST DISADVANTAGED AREAS." THE REVIEW STATED THAT THE FUND HAD COMMITTED OVER 50 MILLION POUNDS TO PROJECTS IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE BORDER COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH AND HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN CREATING A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF NEW JOBS. 10. INTERPARLIAMENTARY BODY THE REVIEW WELCOMED "PROGRESS MADE TOWARDS ESTABLISHMENT OF A BRITISH-IRISH INTERPARLIAMENTARY BODY." 11. GESTURE TO UNIONISTS IN A GESTURE TO UNIONISTS, THE REVIEW'S CONCLUDING PARAGRAPH SAID THE GOVERNMENTS WOULD BE "READY IN PRINCIPLE" TO RESPOND IF IT APPEARED THAT "THE OBJECTIVES OF THE AGREEMENT COULD BE MORE EFFECTIVELY SERVED BY CHANGES IN THE SCOPE AND NATURE OF THE WORKING OF THE CONFERENCE." THE UNIONISTS REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE REVIEW PROCESS, AND KING SAID THIS PROVISION OF THE REVIEW WOULD MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO ACCOMMODATE ANY UNIONIST PROPOSALS IF THEY ABANDONED THEIR BOYCOTT. HE ADMITTED, HOWEVER, THAT A CHANGE BY THE UNIONIST PARTIES WAS UNLIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IN A DUBLIN PRESS CONFERENCE, IRISH PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY SAID BOTH GOVERNMENTS WERE PREPARED TO TALK TO THE UNIONISTS, BUT NOT AT THE PRICE OF THE AIA'S SUSPENSION. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 BELFAS 00133 02 OF 03 020929Z UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO BELFAS 00133 03 OF 03 020928Z LOG-OO MSC-01 PA-02 P-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSCE-00 NSAE-00 HA-09 L-03 TRSE-00 OMB-Ol INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 SNP-01 T-01 /041 W ------------------ 012703 041454Z /48 R 020755Z JUN 89 FM AMCONSUL BELFAST TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6151 INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY DUBLIN AMCONSUL EDINBURGH H-01 PM-10 PRS-01 UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 BELFAST 0133 12. N. IRELAND POLITICIANS PRAISE AND SLAM AIA AND REVIEW SDLP LEADER JOHN HUME DESCRIBED THE AIA'S PROGRESS AS "IMPRESSIVE, IMPORTANT, AND SIGNIFICANT." ALLIANCE PARTY LEADER JOHN ALDERDICE EXPRESSED DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE REVIEW "GAVE SO LITTLE ATTENTION TO THE ATTAINMENT OF DEVOLUTION." UNIONIST LEADERS PROTESTED THAT THE REVIEW SLAMMED THE DOOR ON THE POSSIBILITY OF ROUND-TABLE INTER-PARTY TALKS. DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY LEADER IAN PAISLEY SAID "IT IS NOT A REVIEW WE WANT. WE WANT THE AIA'S REMOVAL." PAISLEY CHARGED THE "PROGRESS OF THE AIA HAS BEEN A PROGRESS TO THE GRAVEYARD, THE HOSPITAL, BROKEN HOMES, BROKEN HEARTS, AND BROKEN BODIES. YET YOU CONTINUE TO PURSUE THE ROAD WHICH FAVORS THE BOMBER, THE MURDERER AND THE MEN OF VIOLENCE." JIM NICHOLSON, ULSTER UNIONIST PARTY CANDIDATE FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT CLAIMED "THE WORTH OF THE AGREEMENT CAN BE JUDGED BY THE ANSWER TO ONLY ONE QUESTION - HAVE THE TWO GOVERNMENTS AGREED TO EXTRADITE FR. PATRICK RYAN?" (NOTE: RYAN IS ALLEGED TO HAVE PARTICIPATED IN TERRORIST ACTIVITIES. HE WAS ARRESTED IN BELGIUM, AND THE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 BELFAS 00133 03 OF 03 020928Z BELGIAN AUTHORITIES SHIPPED HIM TO IRELAND RATHER THAN EXTRADITE HIM TO THE UK. THE IRISH HAVE NOT HONORED A BRITISH EXTRADITION REQUEST.) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 SCANLAN UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686395 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686396 Date: 09/04/2012 J g 2 7 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 DUBLIN ACTION EUR-00 INFO 03424 LOG-00 ADS-00 NSCE-00 NSAE-00 OMB-Ol INRE-00 T-01 /039 W 141505Z INR-07 HA-09 USIE-00 SS-00 L-03 SP-02 CIAE-00 DODE-OO TRSE-00 PM-10 SNP-01 PRS-01 ?067574 H-01 PA-01 P-02 152057Z /72 R 141438Z JUN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 230 7 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 03424 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST [RELEASED IN FULL] E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EC, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH ELECTION AND THE EURO-ELECTIONS REF: DUBLIN 3354 1. (C-- ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY'S DECISION TO CALL AN EARLY ELECTION FOR THE NATIONAL PARLIAMENT TO BE HELD ON THE DATE (15 JUNE) ALREADY SET FOR THE IRISH EURO-ELECTIONS HAS RESULTED IN THE EURO-ELECTIONS VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARING FROM SIGHT. THE MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE THE EURO-ELECTIONS SEEM TO HOLD FOR IRISH POLITICAL PUNDITS IS THEIR POSSIBLE DISTORTING EFFECT ON THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS. COMPETENCY THE ISSUE 3. IN TRUTH, THE EURO-ELECTIONS ALWAYS PROMISED TO BE LACKING IN SIGNIFICANCE. THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 03424 141505Z DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MAJOR PARTIES IN THEIR ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE EC (ALL WANT TO WORK IT FOR THE FULLEST BENEFITS POSSIBLE), AND ALL WENT LARGELY FOR "NAME" CANDIDATES (EITHER SITTING M E P 'S OR OTHER HIGH-PROFILE [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686396 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C l /'bbbjyfci Date: Uy/U4/^U I^ POLITICIANS). CONSEQUENTLY, IN THEIR CAMPAIGN LITERATURE, THE VARIOUS CANDIDATES ARE SIMPLY CLAIMING THAT THEY COULD DO THE JOB BETTER--AS THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS POSTER PUTS IT, "PUT REAL TALENT IN EUROPE." 4. A CLAIM TO COMPETENCY ALSO CONTINUES AS PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY'S PITCH TO THE ELECTORATE IN HIS SEARCH FOR A MAJORITY: "IF WE GET THE OPPORTUNITY, WITH A REASONABLE WORKING MAJORITY, TO IMPLEMENT OUR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN, WE WILL BE A WELL MANAGED, SUCCESSFUL COUNTRY." HOWEVER, THE LAST ELECTION POLLING, RELEASED THIS MORNING, WEDNESDAY, INDICATES THAT THE ELECTORATE HAS NOT BEEN CONVINCED BY HAUGHEY'S CLAIM THAT HIS GOVERNMENT COULD NOT SUCCESSFULLY CONTINUE ITS ECONOMIC REFORMS WITHOUT A MAJORITY. 5. WHILE FIANNA FAIL HAS STABILIZED AT 44 PER CENT, IT IS NOT PICKING UP ANY OF THE UNDECIDEDS WHO ARE OPTING FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTIES. OR PUT IN ANOTHER WAY, WHILE COMMITTED FIANNA FAIL SUPPORTERS ARE STICKING WITH THE PARTY, HAUGHEY HAS FAILED TO RECRUIT ANY NEW VOTERS. IRONICALLY, 44 PER CENT IS THE IDENTICAL SHARE OF THE VOTE WHICH FIANNA FAIL RECEIVED IN THE LAST ELECTIONS-FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THE GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT HAUGHEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL JUST SHORT OF A MAJORITY. IN ANTICIPATION OF SUCH A RESULT, BOTH FINE GAEL AND THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS ARE SAID TO BE CONSIDERING ABSTAINING ON THE PARLIAMENTARY VOTE FOR PRIME MINISTER. THIS WOULD PERMIT HAUGHEY TO FORM A MINORITY GOVERNMENT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 03424 141505Z WITHOUT HAVING TO CUT DEALS WITH THE SMALL LEFT PARTIES WHO WOULD HOLD THE BALANCE OF POWER. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686396 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686396 Date: 09/04/2U12 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686396 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LAS S IFIED U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686397 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 /039 W LOG-00 NSCE-00 OMB-Ol T-01 03284 01 OF 02 INR-0 7 HA-09 USIE-00 SS-00 L-03 SP-02 301050Z CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 -013033 DODE-OO PM-10 PRS-01 H-01 PA-01 P-02 041634Z /40 P 261620Z MAY 89 ZFG FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2220 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 03284 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: IRISH GENERAL ELECTION SET FOR 15 JUNE (r e l e a s e d i n f u l l | REF: DUBLIN 2686 1. -------------- (C-- ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. YESTERDAY EVENING, THURSDAY, PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY ANNOUNCED IN THE IRISH PARLIAMENT THAT A GENERAL ELECTION WOULD BE HELD 15 JUNE, THE DATE ALREADY SET FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS. HE THEN DEPARTED FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RESIDENCE TO OBTAIN THE FORMAL DISSOLUTION OF THE PARLIAMENT- THE ANNOUNCEMENT ENDED THREE WEEKS OF SPECULATION SPARKED OFF BY THE PRIME MINISTER'S SHARP REACTION TO A GOVERNMENT DEFEAT IN THE PARLIAMENT ON A PRIVATE MEMBER'S BILL (REFTEL). 3. AT THE TIME OF THAT VOTE, THE TENSION IN THE HOUSE WAS NEARLY PALPABLE WITH MOST DEPUTIES CONVINCED THAT THE PRIME MINISTER WOULD ANNOUNCE THE DISSOLUTION OF THE PARLIAMENT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE ANTICIPATED GOVERNMENT DEFEAT. IN THE EVENT, HAUGHEY CHOSE TO DELAY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 03284 01 OF 02 301050Z THE FORMAL ANNOUNCEMENT UNTIL THE LAST DAY TO PERMIT A MINIMUM THREE-WEEK CAMPAIGN, AND CHOSE IN THE MEANWHILE TO REFUSE TO EITHER CONFIRM OR DENY HIS INTENTION. THE CONSEQUENT MOOD SHIFTS IN POLITICAL CIRCLES WERE REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, S enior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686397 Date: 09/04/2012 ? 8 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686397 Date: 09/04/2012 FRENETIC, SENIOR POLITICAL FIGURES CHANGING THEIR VIEWS ON THE LIKELIHOOD OR NOT OF A SNAP ELECTION NEARLY DAILY. IN THE LAST THREE DAYS, HOWEVER, A GENERAL CERTITUDE SET IN THAT THE PRIME MINISTER HAD, INDEED, DECIDED TO GO TO THE COUNTRY, AND THE MOOD IN THE PARLIAMENT YESTERDAY WAS ALMOST FRIVOLOUS. CONSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGE 4. THE DISSOLUTION ALSO OCCURRED UNDER THE SHADOW OF SOME CONSTITUTIONAL UNCERTAINTIES. AN INJUNCTION PREVENTING THE DISSOLUTION HAD BEEN SOUGHT BY A EUROMP CANDIDATE ON THE GROUNDS THAT THE CONSTITUENCY BOUNDARIES HAD NOT BEEN RE-DRAWN TO REFLECT POPULATION SHIFTS AS MANDATED BY THE CONSTITUTION AND, HENCE, ANY ELECTION HELD ON THE BASIS OF THE PRESENT BOUNDARIES WOULD BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL AND ILLEGAL. THE INJUNCTION WAS REFUSED AS INTERFERING WITH THE CONSTITUTIONAL PREROGATIVE OF A PRIME MINISTER TO DECIDE THE DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT BUT IN AN OBITER DICTUM THE THE HIGH COURT JUSTICE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE PARLIAMENT WAS, INDEED, IN BREACH OF ITS CONSTITUTIONAL OBLIGATION TO REVISE THE CONSTITUENCIES. SPECULATION IS NOW RIFE THAT THE LOSERS IN THE CONCERNED CONSTITUENCIES (THOSE SHOWN BY THE LAST CENSUS TO BE UNDERREPRESENTED) WILL GO TO COURT TO OVERTURN THE RESULTS. 5. AS WE HAVE REPORTED (88 DUBLIN 4252), THE REDRAWING OF THE CONSTITUENCIES HAS BECOME A POLITICAL HOT POTATO. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 03284 01 OF 02 301050Z THE TERMS OF REFERENCE SET BY THE GOVERNMENT LAST FALL PRODUCED A PLAN WHICH WOULD HAVE REDUCED THE NUMBER OF 5-SEAT CONSTITUENCIES FROM FIFTEEN TO FIVE (OUT OF A TOTAL OF 41, THE REST BEING 4 AND 3-SEATERS). THE SMALLER PARTIES CHARGED THAT THIS BLATANTLY FAVORED THE LARGER PARTIES AT THEIR EXPENSE. THE ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC INVOLVED IS INTRICATE AND NOT PARTICULARLY CONCLUSIVE BUT IT HAS BEEN A LONG-HELD DESIRE OF FIANNA FAIL, THE CURRENT GOVERNING PARTY, TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF LARGE CONSTITUENCIES. DRAWING THEIR SUPPORT, AS NO OTHER IRISH POLITICAL PARTY DOES, FROM ALL SECTORS OF IRISH SOCIETY, FIANNA FAIL WOULD PREFER A CHANGE TO EVEN SINGLE-SEAT CONSTITUENCIES. HOWEVER, FACED BY A UNITED OPPOSITION, THE GOVERNMENT WAS OBLIGED TO WITHDRAW THEIR PROPOSAL FROM PARLIAMENT. THE OPPOSITION ARE NOW UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686397 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C l CHARGING THAT, IF HAUGHEY GAINS A MAJORITY, HIS FIRST ACT WILL BE TO RE-SUBMIT HIS CONSTITUENCIES PROPOSAL. Date: u y/L W ^uiz FIRST STEPS 6. THE CAMPAIGNS WILL BE FORMALLY LAUNCHED TODAY, FRIDAY, AND THE INDIVIDUAL CONSTITUENCY CONVENTIONS TO FORMALLY NOMINATE CANDIDATES WILL BE HELD OVER THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY, THE DOOR-TO-DOOR AND CHURCHGATE CANVASSING BEGINS. JUDGING FROM EARLY COMMENTS, THE MAIN THEMES WILL BE, ON THE PART OF FIANNA FAIL, THE NEED FOR A MAJORITY TO ENSURE EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROGRAM, WHILE THE OPPOSITION PARTIES WILL ACCUSE HAUGHEY OF IRRESPONSIBLY DISSOLVING A COOPERATIVE AND PRODUCTIVE PARLIAMENT IN HIS "LUST FOR POWER." THE OPPOSITION WILL ALSO HAMMER HARD ON THE CUT-HACKS IN HEALTH SERVICES. A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF PROSPECTS FOLLOWS. CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 NSAE-00 INRE-00 /039 W LOG-OO NSCE-00 OMB-01 T-01 03284 02 OF 02 INR-07 HA-09 USIE-00 SS-00 L-03 SP-02 041609Z CIAE-00 TRSE-00 SNP-01 -013463 DODE-OO PM-10 PRS-01 H-01 PA-01 P-02 041634Z /40 P 261620Z MAY 89 ZFG FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0000 INFO EC COLLECTIVE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686397 Date: 09/04/2012 u i'iv-.L /A o oin n u u.cj. D epartm ent ui oLctLe u d b e im r - z u i u - u / a u u u. PAGE 01 ORIGIN EUR-03 STATE INFO ADS-00 LOG-OO du HE LOST THE VOTE--I.E., IF THE CHANGE. HIS JOB IS SAFE. THE PRESENT SHIP VISIT POLICY BY A ACCORDING TO THE SWEDISH DCM. (U) MEMBERSHIP VOTED A VOTE SUPPORTED THE "SUBSTANTIAL" MARGIN (BOUTIN) IRISH PRIME MINISTER CALLS FOR GENERAL ELECTION HIS POPULARITY NOW RUNNING AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH, IRISH PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY CALLED THURSDAY FOR A GENERAL ELECTION FOR JUNE 15, THE SAME DAY AS THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. ALAN DUKES, LEADER OF THE FINE GAEL PARTY, SAID THAT THE ELECTION IS TOTALLY UNNECESSARY BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY IN CONSENSUS WITH HAUGHEY'S GET-TOUGH ATTITUDE ABOUT THE ECONOMY. (PASTERNACK) (U) ACCORDING TO AN IRISH EMBASSY REPRESENTATIVE, FOREIGN MINISTER LENIHAN IS MAKING AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY FROM HIS LIVER TRANSPLANT. (LONGMYER) (U) DUTCH UNVEIL NEW ENVIRONMENT PLAN ON THURSDAY THE DUTCH GOVERNMENT UNVEILED A NEW LONG-TERM ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM DESCRIBED AS ITS MOST COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM TO DATE. THE PLAN, WHICH CALLS FOR A DOUBLING OF ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING TO ABOUT 8.2 BILLION DOLLARS BY 1994, IS INTENDED TO CLEAN UP AT LEAST 70 PERCENT OF CURRENT POLLUTION BY THE YEAR SECRET PAGE 0 7 STATE 168832 2010. THE NEW PROGRAM LISTS GUIDELINES FOR COMBATTING AIR, WATER AND SOIL POLLUTION, REDUCING ENERGY USE AND WASTE DISPOSAL, AND INCREASING PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS. IRONICALLY, FINANCING FOR A SMALL PART OF THE NEW PROGRAM RESULTED IN THE COLLAPSE OF PRIME MINISTER RUUD LUBBERS CENTER-RIGHT GOVERNMENT ON MAY 2. HOWEVER, BECAUSE MEASURES TO PRESERVE THE ENVIRONMENT ARE NOT OPPOSED BY ANY OF THE MAJOR PARTIES, THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT DECIDED TO PRESENT THE PLAN IN ORDER TO SEEK PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL BEFORE THE UPCOMING SEPTEMBER ELECTIONS. (PASTERNACK) (C) USG SCIENTIST TO CRUISE ON SOVIET SUBMERSIBLE WE RECEIVED A MESSAGE FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 SEEKING PERMISSION FOR ONE OF ITS SCIENTISTS TO GO ON A COOPERATIVE DIVE ON THE SOVIET MIR SUBMERSIBLES. AFTER CHECKING WITH THE VARIOUS USG AGENCIES INTERESTED IN THE SOVIET SUBMERSIBLES (AND CHECKING WITH JIM WILKINSON) WE GAVE APPROVAL. THE APPROPRIATE AGENCY WILL CONTACT THE SCIENTIST TO EXPRESS USG CONCERNS REGARDING THESE BOATS. (PEACOCK) END EUR/NE. BEGIN R P E : (C) THATCHER'S BATTLES WITH DELORS COULD RILE MADRID SUMMIT. AS DIANA SMITH NOTED IN HER RECENT MEMO, MAGGIE'S PERSISTENT ANTI-BRUSSELS AND ANTI-DELORS RHETORIC IS EMBARRASSING SOME MPS AND MANY EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES (AS THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN BEGINS) IN HER OWN PARTY. EMBASSY LONDON SUGGESTS THAT HER SECRET PAGE 08 STATE 168832 INCREASING IMPATIENCE MAY BE BASED ON THE RECENT SHIFT OF THE 1992 AGENDA FROM PURELY FREE TRADE ISSUES TO A DISCUSSION OF UNPALATABLE SOCIAL AND MONETARY PROPOSALS, HER CONVICTION THAT SHE WAS SNOOKERED INTO SIGNING THE EUROPEAN SINGLE ACT IN 1986 (RELINQUISHING THE VETO), AND A GROWING UNEASINESS ABOUT GERMANY'S ROLE IN THE COMMUNITY JUST AS KOHL IS DISTRACTED BY COALITION PROBLEMS. WE LEAVE TO OTHERS WHETHER SHE IS SOWING THE SEEDS OF HER OWN EVENTUAL POLITICAL DEMISE (AS A FEW SUGGEST), BUT SHE IS CLEARLY PREPARING TO PLAY THE SPOILER AT THE JUNE 2 6-2 7 EC SUMMIT IN SPAIN. IN HER BATTLE AGAINST THE EC "SOCIALIST SUPER STATE" AND WITH HER GROWING TENDENCY TO SEE EVERY EC PROPOSAL AS A TEST OF BRITISH SOVEREIGNTY, THATCHER HAS ALREADY ANNOUNCED SHE WILL OPPOSE THE SOCIAL CHARTER IN MADRID AS A "SOCIALIST CHARTER" AND REITERATED HMG'S OPPOSITION TO EC PROPOSALS FOR A COMMON CURRENCY AND A CENTRAL BANK, ALL DELORS-INITIATED PROJECTS. (GARLAND) END RPE BEGIN EUR/SE 5/26/89 (C) PAPOULIAS PRESSES ON PAPANDREOU-BUSH. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 GEORGE PAPOULIAS CALLED ME TODAY TO SEE IF WE HAD ANY WORD ON PAPANDREOU'S REQUEST FOR A BILATERAL WITH THE PRESIDENT. WHEN I SAID WE HAD NOT, HE SUGGESTED EVEN A BRIEF MEETING OR A PHOTO OP WITH THE PRESIDENT WOULD BE FINE (A PICTURE IS WORTH A 1,000 WORDS). THE ATHENS PRESS IS ALREADY REPORTING THAT PAPANDREOU WILL MEET (SIC) WITH SECRET PAGE 09 STATE 168832 THE PRESIDENT. WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE, AS WE RECOMMENDED TO THE NSC/S, THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO MEETING, PHOTO OP OR OTHERWISE. (FRIEDMAN) (C) INITIAL TURKISH/GREEK PRESS REACTION TO HFAC 7:10 ACTION THE TURKISH PRESS IS ENTHUSIASTICALLY WELCOMING THE HFAC DECISION ON 7:10. THE NEWS SO FAR HAS RECEIVED STRAIGHTFORWARD AND MODEST COVERAGE IN THE GREEK PRESS. THE GOVERNMENT IS SEEKING TO CLAIM THAT THE DECISION REPRESENTS A VICTORY OF SORTS FOR GREECE. OUR CONCLUSION IS THAT THUS FAR THE PRESS TREATMENT CONFIRMS OUR EARLIER JUDGMENT THAT PAPANDREOU COULD NOT SUCCEED IN MAKING AN ELECTORAL ISSUE OUT OF THIS. (JEFFREY) END EUR/SE BEGIN EUR/SOV: (U) ATTORNEY GENERAL TO DELAY TRIP TO USSR: AT A MEETING TODAY AT JUSTICE, THE ATTORNEY GENERAL AND HIS STAFF AGREED THAT IT WOULD BE WISER TO POSTPONE HIS TRIP TO THE SOVIET UNION UNTIL LATER IN THE YEAR. AMONG THE FACTORS BEHIND THE DECISION NOT TO OPT FOR THE LAST WEEK IN JULY WERE THE FACTS THAT JULY AND AUGUST ARE VACATION PERIODS, THE FACT THAT MOSCOW UNIVERSITY'S LAW FACULTY -- WHERE THORNBURGH WOULD LIKE TO SPEAK -- WILL BE OUT OF SESSION, AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE SOVIETS WILL STILL BE WORKING OUT THEIR NEW CONSTITUIONAL ARRANGEMENTS. THE RECENTLY-REPORTED FACT THAT THE CONGRESS OF PEOPLE'S DEPUTIES HAS NOMINATED A NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE SUPREME COURT AND PROCURATOR GENERAL WAS ALSO A CONSIDERATION. (EVANS) SECRET PAGE 10 STATE 168832 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 UNULASiSiNhU U.S. Department or state uase no. i--z u iu -u /a u u uoc no. o i /b o o ja o uate: u y/u 4 /zu \ z (S) INDICTMENT OF MUSCOVITE SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY: WE GAVE L/LEI OUR OK TODAY ON THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE'S PLANNED INDICTMENT NEXT TUESDAY OF SOVIET CITIZEN, ILYA P. BUTAKOV -- A KNOWN GRU OFFICER AND VICE PRESIDENT OF SUDOIMPORT, THE SHIPPING IMPORT-EXPORT FIRM -- FOR HIS ROLE IN THE ILLEGAL EXPORT OF U.S. SONAR EQUIPMENT. BUTAKOV'S NAME WILL BE PLACED IN THE VISA LOOK-OUT SYSTEM, BUT UNLESS HE ENTERS THE U.S., THE INDICTMENT WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO PRACTICAL EFFECT. WE WOULD NOT PURSUE EXTRADITION FROM THE USSR, AND EVEN A THIRD-COUNTRY EXTRADITION EFFORT IS UNLIKELY SINCE MOST NATIONS ARE UNWILLING TO COOPERATE WITH US ON EXTRADITION FOR EXPORT CONTROL VIOLATIONS. (NULAND) (LOU) POSSIBLE MEDICAL AID TO MOLDAVIAN: VOA'S ROMANIAN SERVICE RECEIVED A REQUEST FROM LISTENERS IN SOVIET MOLDAVIA FOR MEDICAL ASSISTANCE TO A RECENTLYELECTED MOLDAVIAN MEMBER OF THE CONGRESS OF PEOPLE'S DEPUTIES WHO HAD SUSTAINED A SERIOUS HEAD INJURY. THE DEPUTY, DUMITRU MATKOVSKY, HAS BEEN IN A COMA SINCE A SERIOUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ON MAY 17. WE PUT VOA IN TOUCH WITH SEVERAL VOLUNTEER ORGANIZATIONS THAT MIGHT BE WILLING TO SEND A NEUROSURGEON TO KISHINEV TO ASSIST IN HIS TREATMENT. VOA IS FOLLOWING UP AND IS SEEKING TO LEARN SPECIFICS ABOUT MATKOVSKY'S MEDICAL CONDITION AT THE REQUEST OF ONE OF THE VOLUNTEER ORGANIZATIONS. (STEPHENSON) END EUR/SOV BEGIN EUR/WE SECRET PAGE 11 STATE 168832 (C) PORTUGAL: VISIT OF PRESIDENT SOARES THE PORTUGUESE EMBASSY INFORMED US TODAY THAT PRESIDENT SOARES WILL TRAVEL TO RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS TO DEDICATE A MONUMENT AND TO VISIT LOCAL PORTUGUESE-AMERICAN COMMUNITIES, JUNE 25-26. HE ALSO WISHES TO VISIT WASHINGTON ON JUNE 27 IF HE CAN SEE PRESIDENT BUSH. WITHOUT COMMENTING ON THE ODDS OF ARRANGING A PRESIDENTIAL CALL AT THIS DATE, WE TOLD THE PORTUGUESE EMBASSY WE WOULD LOOK INTO IT. ADRIAN BASORA ON THE NSC STAFF INDICATED THAT THE PRESIDENT'S SCHEDULE WILL NOT PERMIT AN OFFICIAL VISIT BY SOARES IN THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT IF THE DEPARTMENT BELIEVES THAT IT IS UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 IM PORTANT ENOUGH, WE COULD A R G U E F O R A BRIEF INFORMAL CALL. B A S O R A R A TED CHANCES OF SUCCESS A S SMALL, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. HE ALSO INDICATED THAT A SOARES STOP-BY COULD UNDERCUT OUR GETTING AN INVITATION FOR PRIME MINISTER CAVACO SILVA. IN VIEW OF THE IMPORTANCE WE ATTACH TO A VISIT BY CAVACO SILVA AND THE FACT THAT SOARES ALREADY SAW THE PRESIDENT AT TOKYO, WE QUESTION THE VALUE OF SPENDING MUCH POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SEEK A SOARES VISIT AT THIS TIME. WE WILL PREPARE A MEMORANDUM ON THE APPOINTMENT REQUEST, BUT RECOMMENDING AGAINST GRANTING IT. (CASWELL) (C) PORTUGAL: VISIT OF DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER DURAO BARROSO WILL VISIT THE DEPARTMENT, JUNE 19-20 FOR CONSULTATIONS ON AFRICAN ISSUES WITH ASSISTANT SECRETARY COHEN AT THE LATTER'S INVITATION. HE HAS ALSO INDICATED INTEREST IN MEETING DEPUTY SECRETARY EAGLEBURGER. DURAO BARROSO IS AN INFLUENTIAL FIGURE WHO IS CLOSE TO PRIME MINISTER CAVACO SILVA AND AS DEPUTY MINISTER HAS IMPORTANT POLICY INPUT ON BILATERAL, NATO, AS WELL AS KEY AFRICAN ISSUES FOR THE SECRET PAGE 12 STATE 168832 GOP. WE WILL COORDINATE AN APPOINTMENT REQUEST WITH AF, BUT WE ALSO BELIEVE A MEETING IN EUR WOULD BE WORTHWHILE. RECOMMEND THAT CHARLEY THOMAS CONSIDER RECEIVING DURAO BARROSO ON JUNE 20. AGREE: END EUR/WE DISAGREE: EAGLEBURGER SECRET << END OF DOCUMENT >> UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686398 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 ? 3 0 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 02686 01 OF 02 021347Z LOG-00 MSC-01 PA-01 PRS-01 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSCE-00 NSAE-00 HA-09 L-03 TRSE-00 OMB-01 INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 SNP-01 P-02 T-01 /041 W ------------------ 141541 021410Z /48 R 021337Z MAY 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2053 INFO EC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L H-01 PM-10 C-01 SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 02686 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH POLITICAL SCENE: AFTER ALL? A SNAP ELECTION REF: DUBLIN 1517 1. [RELEASED IN FULL) (C--ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. AFTER MONTHS OF DOWNPLAYING THE IDEA OF A SNAP ELECTION, DESPITE FIANNA FAIL'S CONSISTENTLY HIGH POLL STANDINGS, GOVERNING PARTY CIRCLES HAVE BEGUN TO TALK AS THOUGH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY COULD WELL GO TO THE COUNTRY SOONER RATHER THAN LATER, WITH A LIKELY DATE BEING THE 15 JUNE EURO-ELECTIONS. THE IMMEDIATE CAUSE OF THIS RENEWED SPECULATION WAS THE GOVERNMENT'S DEFEAT LAST WEDNESDAY IN THE IRISH PARLIAMENT ON A LABOUR PARTY PROPOSAL ON AID TO HEMOPHILIACS INFECTED WITH THE HIV VIRUS. SIXTH DEFEAT IN TWO YEARS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02686 01 OF 02 021347Z 3. THE DEFEAT ON THE HEMOPHILIAC-AID VOTE WAS EXPECTED, AND ALL OUR SOURCES BEFOREHAND, INCLUDING THE GOVERNMENT'S CHIEF WHIP, INDICATED THAT THE GOVERNMENT (REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 WOU L D SIMPLY DISREGARD THE V O T E AS IT HAD DONE W I T H FIVE PREVIOUS PRIVATE MEMBERS' BILLS. CERTAINLY THE PROPOSAL HAD NO BINDING FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS, BUT WAS MORE IN THE NATURE OF A MORAL EXHORTATION, PUTTING THE CASE THAT THE GOVERNMENT, WHILE IT MAY NOT BE LEGALLY BOUND TO MAKE AN EXCEPTION, WAS MORALLY OBLIGATED TO ASSIST HEMOPHILIACS INFECTED WITH THE HIV VIRUS FROM GOVERNMENT BLOOD STOCKS. HOWEVER, THE PRIME MINISTER, ON ARRIVING BACK IN DUBLIN FROM A STATE VISIT TO JAPAN, INSTRUCTED HIS CHIEF WHIP TO INFORM THE OPPOSITION THAT DEFEAT COULD MEAN AN ELECTION. REPORTEDLY, HAUGHEY VIEWED THE UNITED OPPOSITION NOT AS VOTING FOR THE MERITS OF THE PROPOSAL BUT IN ORDER TO EMBARRASS THE GOVERNMENT. 4. A FLURRY OF CABINET MEETINGS AND INTER-WHIP CONTACTS SO RACHETED UP THE TENSION THAT SOME DEPUTIES EXPECTED THE PRIME MINISTER TO ANNOUNCE AN ELECTION IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE VOTE. IN THE EVENT, HAUGHEY WAITED FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY TO ANNOUNCE NO ELECTION BUT THAT HE WOULD BE KEEPING THE QUESTION UNDER CONSTANT REVIEW. HE KEY-POINTED THE ESSENTIALITY OF MAINTAINING PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN THE GOVERNMENT. HE WOULD NOT, HE STRESSED, PUT UP WITH CONTINUING ATTACKS ON THE GOVERNMENT'S AUTHORITY OR ABILITY TO DO BUSINESS. 5. ONE THEORY HOLDS THAT HAUGHEY NEVER INTENDED AN ELECTION BUT WAS JUST FLEXING HIS MUSCLES, SEIZING ON THE OCCASION AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO RE-SEIZE THE INITIATIVE AFTER WEEKS OF OPPOSITION ATTACKS ON THE AGRICULTURE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 02686 01 OF 02 021347Z MINISTER (AND THROUGH HIM ON HAUGHEY HIMSELF), ACCUSING THE GOVERNMENT OF EITHER CONFLICT-OF-INTEREST OR INCOMPETENCE. BEGINNING WITH THE CLOSING OF A SUGAR FACTORY, THE AFFAIR HAS EXPANDED INTO THE POTENTIALLY MORE-EMBARRASSING ISSUE OF WIDESPREAD FRAUD IN THE BEEFEXPORT BUSINESS AND THE WHOLE QUESTION OF FIANNA FAIL'S LONG-STANDING COZY RELATIONSHIP WITH BIG BUSINESS. THUS FAR, THE PRIME MINISTER HAS KEPT THE LID ON THE POTENTIAL SCANDAL BY TREATING THE ACCUSATIONS WITH NEAR CONTEMPT. 6. ANOTHER THEORY WOULD HAVE IT THAT HAUGHEY LOST HIS NERVE, IN SUDDEN RECOGNITION THAT IN FOUR ELECTIONS AS FIANNA FAIL LEADER HE HAS NEVER WON AN OVERALL MAJORITY. INDEED, ONE ILL-TIMED DECISION FOR AN EARLY ELECTION LOST HIM THE TWENTY-SEAT MAJORITY HE HAD UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 INHERITED F R O M HIS PREDECESSOR. M OST POLITICAL PUNDITS LAY THIS DISMAL ELECTORAL RECORD TO THE "HAUGHEY FACTOR" -- THE WIDELY-HELD PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF HAUGHEY AS A POLITICAL OPPORTUNIST WITHOUT FIRM GUIDING PRINCIPLES. AS WE HAVE REPORTED, HAUGHEY'S STATESMANLIKE PERFORMANCE OVER THE TWO YEARS OF HIS CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAS LARGELY DISPELLED THIS OLD IMAGE. BUT HIS HARD-WON NEW IMAGE WOULD SIMPLY DISSOLVE IF HE WERE PERCEIVED AS GOING TO THE COUNTRY ON A FRIVOLOUS OR BASICALLY MEANINGLESS ISSUE. A COROLLARY THEORY ADDS THAT HAUGHEY REALIZED THAT FIGHTING AN ELECTION OVER AID TO HEMOPHILIACS WOULD HAND THE OPPOSITION ALL THE MORAL HIGH GROUND. 7. A FINAL THEORY (CURRENTLY IN THE ASCENDANT) HAS HAUGHEY FIRMLY DECIDED FOR AN ELECTION BUT DELIBERATELY CALCULATING THE OPPORTUNE SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES. THE FIRST CONSIDERATION IS THE N E E D , FIRST, TO PASS THE FINANCE BILL ON 17 MAY, WITHOUT WHICH THE GOVERNMENT'S CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 MSC-01 PA-01 PRS-01 DUBLIN 02686 02 OF 02 021348Z ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 CIAE-00 DODE-OO NSCE-00 NSAE-00 HA-09 L-03 TRSE-00 OMB-Ol INRE-00 USIE-00 SP-02 SNP-01 P-02 T-01 /041 W ------------------ 141554 021410Z /48 R 021337Z MAY 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2054 INFO EC COLLECTIVE H-01 PM-10 C-01 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 DUBLIN 02686 LONDON PLEASE POUCH BELFAST E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV, El SUBJECT: THE IRISH POLITICAL SCENE: A SNAP ELECTION ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROGRAM WOULD BE DERAILED. THE SECOND, AND CRUCIAL, NEED IS TO FIND A DEFENSIBLE CAUSE FOR DISSOLUTION. THE ARGUMENTS ARE THAT HAUGHEY NEEDS TO BE ABLE TO ARGUE CONVINCINGLY THAT THE OPPOSITION IS WILLFULLY UNDERMINING HIS GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS TO SET RIGHT THE NATION'S ECONOMY. UNDERMINING? OR POLITICS-AS-USUAL? 8. AT FIRST GLANCE, IT WOULD SEEM HARD FOR HAUGHEY TO MAKE SUCH A CASE. WHILE WEDNESDAY'S VOTE WAS THE GOVERNMENT'S SIXTH DEFEAT, ALL HAVE COME ON ESSENTIALLY MARGINAL ISSUES. GIVEN THE MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY'S PLEDGE TO SUPPORT RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT FISCAL AND ECONOMIC POLICIES (THE "TALLAGHT STRATEGY"), A REFUSAL BY HAUGHEY TO ALLOW THE OPPOSITION ANY RIGHT TO OPPOSE THE GOVERNMENT AT ALL WOULD BE SEEN AS RIDICULOUS. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02686 02 OF 02 021348Z 9. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE ARE TOUGH TIMES AHEAD. BOTH INTEREST RATES AND GASOLINE PRICES ARE SET TO RISE IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ALL PARTIES ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MANY TOUGH DECISIONS ON PUBLIC SPENDING REMAIN TO BE MADE. HAUGHEY CAN ARGUE, WITH JUSTIFICATION, THAT SUCH DECISIONS CANNOT BE MADE IN A STATE OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN, PERHAPS, IS THE EFFECT OF RISING RATES AND PRICES ON FIANNA FAIL'S OWN STANDING IN THE POLLS. SOME MINISTERS ARE KNOWN TO BE ARGUING THAT THE FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT HAS RIDDEN FISCAL AUSTERITY AS HIGH IN PUBLIC APPROBATION AS IT CAN TAKE THEM. ONLY AN IMAGE OF ONGOING COMPETENCY, OF GETTING THE JOB DONE, WILL KEEP THEM THERE, AND CONTINUING PARLIAMENTARY DEFEATS, EVEN ON MARGINAL ISSUES, WILL INEVITABLY SO AFFECT THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S COMPETENCE AS TO BRING FIANNA FAIL DOWN IN THE POLLS. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 1 4 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. U /'bbb^yy uate: uy/u /zu iz 10. IRISH ATTORNEY GENERAL JOHN MURRAY DINED WITH AMBASSADOR HECKLER THE NIGHT OF HAUGHEY'S RETURN. THREE TIMES HE WAS CALLED TO THE PHONE BY THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY OF GOING TO THE COUNTRY. MURRAY TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THERE IS AN OVERWHELMING SENTIMENT IN THE CABINET TO GO TO THE POLLS QUICKLY. BUT, THERE IS A RECOGNITION THE HAEMOPHILIA ISSUE IS NOT A GOOD BASIS TO DISSOLVE THE ASSEMBLY. MURRAY BELIEVES HAUGHEY WILL CALL A SNAP ELECTION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. 11. COMMENT: WITH POLLS MORE FAVORABLE TO FIANNA FAIL THAN IN YEARS, WITH HAUGHEY'S PERSONAL STATURE AT AN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 02686 02 OF 02 021348Z HISTORIC HIGH AFTER HIS "TRIUMPHS" WITH GORBACHEV AND THE JAPANESE AND WITH THE OPPOSITION STILL IN DISARRAY AND WITHOUT DECISIVE LEADERSHIP, THE TEMPTATION TO GO TO THE COUNTRY IS GREAT. IF HAUGHEY DECIDES TO GO, THE MOST LIKELY DATE IS JUNE 15 TO CORRESPOND WITH THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS. END COMMENT. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686399 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686400 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 DUBLIN ACTION NODS-OO INFO 02698 021721Z LOG-OO ADS-00 /000 W ------------------ 153400 O 021723Z MAY 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2060 C O N F I D E N T I A L 021722Z /44 DUBLIN 02698 [d e c a p t i o n e d | NODIS FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR HECKLER E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: NATO, EEC, PREL, GE SUBJECT : CONCERNS ABOUT GERMANY 1. ______________ |RELEASED IN FULL) (C-ENTIRE TEXT). 2. I KNOW HOW MUCH KOHL'S DECISION ON SNF IS ON YOUR MIND AND I WANTED TO SHARE WITH YOU SOME COMMENTS ON GERMANY BY PETER SUTHERLAND, IRISH EC COMMISSIONER UNTIL JANUARY 1 OF THIS YEAR AND UNIVERSALLY REGARDED AS ONE OF THE PRIOR COMMISSION'S BRIGHT LIGHTS. 3. DURING THE COURSE OF A WIDE-RANGING DISCUSSION ON US-EC RELATIONS AT MY RESIDENCE MAY 2, PETER KEPT COMING BACK TO HIS PREOCCUPATIONS ABOUT GERMANY. PREOCCUPATIONS PETER MAINTAINED WERE SHARED BY SOME MEMBERS OF THE CURRENT EC COMMISSION. PETER FEARS THAT CURRENT TENSIONS BETWEEN BONN AND LONDON, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WASHINGTON, ON SNF COULD VERY WELL SPILL OVER INTO THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP. IN PETER'S VIEW, THE GERMANS HAVE BEEN PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN KEEPING FRENCH, ITALIAN AND OTHERS' CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02698 021721Z PROTECTIONIST TENDENCIES UNDER CONTROL. THIS HAS BEEN CRUCIAL TO BOTH THE URUGUAY ROUND AND EC MOVEMENT TOWARDS A SINGLE MARKET. A SERIOUS RIFT WITH LONDON AND WASHINGTON ON ALLIANCE ISSUES COULD REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer! UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686400 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686400 Date: 09/04/2012 PUSH THE GERMANS INTO THE HANDS OF THE PROTECTIONISTS. A N O T H E R KEY F A C T O R , A C C O R D I N G TO PETER AND OTHERS WITH WHOM I HAVE SPOKEN, IS THATCHER'S PERSISTENT PERSONAL UNPOPULARITY WITH HER EC PARTNERS AND THE RISK WE FACE IN THE CURRENT CRISIS OF BECOMING TOO IDENTIFIED WITH HER STRIDENCY. 4. FOR MY PART HERE IN IRELAND, SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE NATO DEBATE, IT SEEMS INCUMBENT ON US TO SHORE UP THE FLANK ON THE TRADE SIDE BY TAKING PAINS TO KEEP THE TWO DEBATES TOTALLY SEPARATE. 5. ON ANOTHER SUBJECT, YOUR MESSAGE TO TAOISEACH CHARLES J. HAUGHEY IN WASHINGTON MADE A STRONG IMPRESSION AND HE HAS QUOTED YOU OFTEN WITH ADMIRATION SINCE HIS RETURN. HECKLER CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686400 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686402 Date: 09/04/2012 ? | 3 3 SECRET FAGE 01 STATE ORIGIN NODS-OO INFO LOG-OO ADS-00 101365 /000 R DRAFTED BY: EUR/NE:KLONGMYER/SOV:AWOLF (0318S) APPROVED B Y : D :LEAGLEBURGER EUR: RLRIDGWAY EUR/NE:EMHEAPHY ARA/CEN:PROMERO S/S:RWMUELLER EUR/SOV:SPIFER NS C S :GPHUGHES S/S-0:JCARRAGHER P :BBURTON (SUBS) S/S-S: S/P:PCLAPP (SUBS) 315111 010512Z /20 O P 010507Z APR 89 ZFF6 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY DUBLIN NIACT IMMEDIATE INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY S E C R E T STATE 101365 [RELEASED IN FULL] DECAPTIONED NODIS E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, UR, XK, El SUBJECT: LETTER FROM PRESIDENT BUSH TO PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY ON SOVIET POLICY TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA 1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT. 2. EMBASSY SHOULD DELIVER TEXT OF THE FOLOIING LETTER FROM PRESIDENT BUSH TO PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE NO SIGNED ORIGINAL. 3. BEGIN TEXT: DEAR PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY, I KNOW THAT YOU HAVE FOLLOWD OUR SUCCESSFUL EFFORTS TO DEVELOP A BIPARTISAN CONSENSUS BEHIND U.S. POLICY TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. JIM BAKER WILL BE WRITING TO SECRET SECRET PAGE 02 STATE 101365 BRIAN LENIHAN SHORTLY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE SUBJECT. I WANTED TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY, HOWEVER, TO LET YOU KNOW THAT I HAVE SENT MIKHAIL GORBACHEV A LETTER ON THE EVE OF HIS DEPARTURE FOR HAVANA OUTLINING REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer! UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686402 Date: 09/04/2012 UN C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686402 Date: 09/04/2012 OUR CONCERNS ABOUT -- AND URGING A CHANGE IN -- SOVIET POLICY TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. IN PARTICULAR, I UNDERSCORED THE DIFFICUTIES WE HAVE RECONCILING THE LANGUAGE OF SOVIET "NEW THINKING" WITH CONTINUING HIGH LEVELS OF SOVIET AND CUBAN ASSISTANCE TO NICARAGUA. AS YOU KNOW, THERE IS NO CONCEIVABLE MILITARY THREAT THAT JUSTIFIES THAT ASSISTANCE (WHICH LAST YEAR TOTALED ALMOST ONE BILLION DOLLARS). I NOTED FURTHER THAT THIS ASSISTANCE IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO BE USED TO UNDERCUT DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS, AS EVIDENCED BY NICARAGUAN AND CUBAN USE OF SOVIET AID TO SUPPORT VIOLENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR. I ALSO LEFT NO DOUBT THAT SOVIET ACTIONS IN THE REGION WILL NECESSARILY AFFECT THE PROSPECTS FOR U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS. THE LEADERSHIP OF BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS FROM BOTH PARTIES AGREE WITH ME ON THIS. IN CONCLUSION, I EXPRESSED MY HOPE THAT, DURING HIS VISIT TO CUBA, CHAIRMAN GORBACHEV WOULD REFLEC SERIOUSLY ON THE OPPORTUNITY NOW BEFORE US TO PURSUE PEACEFUL SOLUTIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. MOREOVER, AN INITIATIVE BY THE SOVIET UNION AND CUBA TO SHUT OFF THE ASSISTANCE PIPELINE FEEDING ARMED CONFLICT IN THE REGION WOULD PAY LARGE DIVIDENDS IN AMERICAN GOODWILL AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOVIET "NEW THINKING" WAS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. AS JIM BAKER TOLD YOU DURING YOUR RECENT VISIT TO WASHINGTON, WE WILL JUDGE THE SOVIET SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 STATE 101365 UNION'S REGIONAL INITIATIVES BY THEIR RESULTS WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE ENDING MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO NICARAGUA. GIVEN IRELAND1S INTEREST IN PROMOTING DEMOCRACY IN CENTRAL AMERICA, I HOPE THAT WHEN YOU SEE GENERAL SECRETARY GORBACHEV AT SHANNON YOU WILL URGE HIM TO SUPPORT DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO BRING PEACE TO THE REGION BY STOPPING THE SHIPMENT OF WEAPONS TO THE REGION. THANK YOU FOR DROPPING BY TO SEE ME ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY. I ENJOYED YOUR VISIT VERY MUCH AND LOOK FORWARD TO OTHER SUCH PLEASANT OCCASIONS. SINCERELY YOURS, UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686402 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686402 Date: 09/04/2012 GEORGE BUSH END T E X T . BAKER SECRET NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686402 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C LA S S IFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case ino. i-- u iu - u /a u u ^ uoc no. o i / ooo^u j uaie: u s / u h / ^ u CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION SS-00 INFO DUBLIN 02055 041300Z LOG-00 ADS-00 SSO-OO /000 W ------------------ 115573 O 041257Z APR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1884 INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW C O N F I D E N T I A L EXDIS 041302Z /38 DUBLIN 02055 [DECAPTIONEDj E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, El, UR, XK SUBJECT: IRISH PRIME MINISTER RAISES CENTRAL AMERICA WITH GORBACHEV REF: (A) STATE 101365, 1. (B) DUBLIN 2011, (C) STATE 94212 (C--ENTIRE TEXT.) [RELEASED IN f u l l ] 2. IN RESPONSE TO OUR DEMARCHE (REF B ) , THE AMBASSADOR'S EFFORTS AND THE PRESIDENT'S LETTER (REF A), IRISH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY BRIEFLY RAISED CENTRAL AMERICA WITH GORBACHEV DURING THE LATTER'S TWO-HOUR STOPOVER AT SHANNON AIRPORT APRIL 2. HAUGHEY RAISED THE ISSUE DURING THE LEADERS' TEN MINUTE TETE-A-TETE WITH ONLY INTERPRETERS PRESENT. 3. ACCORDING TO DFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR MURPHY AND A SENIOR SOURCE IN THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE WHO WERE BRIEFED BY HAUGHEY AFTER THE MEETING, HAUGHEY TOLD GORBACHEV HE WAS VERY PLEASED AT THE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS AND FAVORABLE DIRECTION IN U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS AND HE HOPED THAT DEVELOPMENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA WOULD NOT PUT ANY OBSTACLES IN THE WAY OF EVEN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02055 041300Z MORE IMPROVEMENT IN U.S.-SOVIET RELATIONS. ACCORDING TO BOTH SOURCES, GORBACHEV SIMPLY NOTED THE POINT AND THEN BEGAN TO COMMENT ON HIS RELATIONS WITH WASHINGTON. HE HAD HAD GOOD RELATIONS WITH PRESIDENT REAGAN, GORBACHEV [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686403 Date: 09/04/2012 U N C L A S S lh ltD U .S. Departm ent ot s ta te u a s e no. i---'in u -u /'a u u uoc ino. u i / s o m u j uaie: u a / u ^ u \ . d SAID, AND HOPED GOOD RELATIONS WOULD CONTINUE WITH PRESIDENT BUSH. HOWEVER, GORBACHEV ADDED, HE FEARED THE PRESIDENT WAS COMING UNDER INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT WING. 4. BOTH OUR SOURCES UNDERLINED THAT THE TETE A TETE WAS VERY SHORT, ALL COMMENTS HAD TO BE INTERPRETED AND OTHER ISSUES (SEPTEL) WERE DISCUSSED. NONETHELESS, HAUGHEY BELIEVES HE HAS ACCOMMODATED THE PRESIDENT'S REQUEST AND HAS WRITTEN HIM AN ACCOUNT OF THE EXCHANGE (SEPTEL). HECKLER CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686403 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C176Sfci4U4 Date: u y /iw .'u iz CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 10-19 L-03 SP-02 LOG-OO MSC-01 HA-09 USIE-00 /068 W 02072 01 OF 03 INR-0 7 NEA-0 6 TRSE-00 SNP-01 041901Z SS-00 NSCE-00 PM-10 C-01 OIC-02 ARA-00 PA-01 PRS-01 o133425 CIAE-00 NSAE-00 OMB-Ol P-02 H-01 SSO-OO INRE-00 T-01 041904Z /45 O 041850Z APR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1891 INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW EC COLLECTIVE USINT HAVANA DIA WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 D UBL I N 02072 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, EEWT, UN, EEC, El, UR, US SUBJECT: SOVIET-IRISH SUMMIT 1. , -------------- - [ r e l e a s e d in f u l l ] (C-- ENTIRE TEXT.) SUMMARY 2. ONE HOUR OF TALKS BETWEEN GORBACHEV AND HAUGHEY DURING A STOPOVER AT SHANNON AIRPORT APRIL 2 CONSTITUTES THE FIRST EVER SOVIET-IRISH SUMMIT. THE SOVIETS HANDLED THE EVENT SKILLFULLY; GORBOMANIA HAS SWEPT THE COUNTRY. SUBSTANTIVELY, LITTLE WAS ACCOMPLISHED, BUT GROWING SOVIET-IRISH ECONOMIC TIES HAVE BEEN GIVEN A BOOST WITH GORBACHEV'S INVITATION FOR HIGH-POWERED IRISH MINISTERIAL DELEGATION TO VISIT MOSCOW LATER THIS YEAR TO EXPLORE A RANGE OF ECONOMIC DEALS. IN THE TALKS, GORBACHEV ACCUSED WASHINGTON OF PROCRASTINATING ON START, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02072 01 OF 03 041901Z COMPLAINED ABOUT NATO MODERNIZATION, AND PROMOTED HIS IDEA OF A COMMON EUROPEAN HOME AND HIS HOPES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE BETWEEN THE EC AND CMEA. HAUGHEY INDICATED SOME SIMILARITIES IN IRISH AND SOVIET REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 ?35 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 DISARMAMENT POSITIONS, BUT REFUSED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE M O D E R N I Z A T I O N DEBATE. HE AGREED W IT H THE A T L A N T I C TO THE URALS FORMULA AND THE NEED FOR MORE EAST-WEST TRADE, AND URGED SOVIET SUPPORT FOR UNIFIL. HE BRIEFED GORBACHEV ON NORTHERN IRELAND AND GORBACHEV SAID HE WOULD CONTINUE TO DISCUSS NORTHERN IRELAND WITH MRS. THATCHER. HAUGHEY AND THE IRISH ARE DELIGHTED WITH THE VISIT, AND HAVE, ONCE AGAIN, OFFERED IRELAND FOR A U.S.-SOVIET SUMMIT. END SUMMARY. FIRST EVER IRISH SOVIET SUMMIT 3. THE FIRST IRISH-SOVIET SUMMIT TOOK PLACE APRIL 2 DURING A TWO-HOUR STOPOVER AT SHANNON AIRPORT BY GENERAL SECRETARY GORBACHEV ON HIS WAY TO CUBA. WITH LIVE TELEVISION COVERAGE FROM ARRIVAL TO POST-DEPARTURE INTERVIEWS, THERE WASN'T A COMMENT TO BE HEARD THAT WASN'T POSITIVE. EVEN THE ELDERLY PASTOR OF THE LOCAL PARISH FOUND IT IMPOSSIBLE TO RECALL THE DAYS WHEN THE SIGHT OF THE RED FLAG FLYING ON IRISH SOIL WOULD HAVE GIVEN THE HIERARCHY APOPLEXY. AS THE IRISH TIMES SUB HEADLINE MONDAY READ, "AND NOT AN ANTI-COMMUNIST BLEAT OUT OF ANYONE." THE REPORTING, BOTH TELEVISION AND PRESS, WAS LARGELY ATMOSPHERIC. REPORTERS WERE PARTICULARLY PLEASED BY GORBACHEV'S OPENING REMARK THAT HIS VISIT WAS "NOT A CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 02072 01 OF 03 041901Z STOPOVER BUT A MILESTONE." THE UPSHOT WAS A SOLID VICTORY FOR THE GORBACHEV CHARM OFFENSIVE AS THE IRISH LET THEMSELVES BE CONVINCED THAT THEY HAVE A ROLE TO PLAY IN THE DEMOCRATIC EVOLUTION OF THE SOVIET UNION. AMIDST THE FANFARE, PROTOCOL AND MOB SCENES OF A RAISA GORBACHEV VISIT TO A LOCAL OPEN-AIR MUSEUM, GORBACHEV AND PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY HAD ABOUT ONE HOUR OF TALKS (INCLUDING INTERPRETATION). GORBACHEV WAS ACCOMPANIED BY FORMIN SHEVARDNADZE, DEP PRIME MIN KAMENTSEV AND POLITBUREAU MEMBER YAKOVLEV. HAUGHEY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY FORMIN LENIHAN, FINANCE MIN REYNOLDS, TRANSPORT MIN WILSON AND THREE SENIOR OFFICIALS. THE FOLLOWING ACCOUNT OF THE TALKS IS BASED ON A READ-OUT BY DFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR MURPHY TO AMBASSADOR AND DCM, A BRIEFING BY A SENIOR SOURCE IN THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE, AND THE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. l--2inu-u/'yuu uoc AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH IRISH TRANSPORT MINISTER WILSON, ALL OF WHOM ATTENDED THE MEETING. in o . u u d o d ^ u a ie . ARMS CONTROL 4. GORBACHEV SAID HE WAS "WORRIED" ABOUT THE DELAY IN RELAUNCHING THE START TALKS AND BEGINNING TO THINK THE DELAY HAD LESS TO DO WITH COMPLETING REVIEWS THAN WITH "PROCRASTINATION" IN WASHINGTON. SIMILARLY, HE WAS IMPATIENT WITH WESTERN TALK ABOUT MODERNIZATION AND ITS EFFECT ON CONVENTIONAL DISARMAMENT AND ASKED FOR IRISH VIEWS. HAUGHEY REFERRED TO SIMILARITIES IN THE IRISH AND SOVIET POSITIONS ON DISARMAMENT ISSUES AS REFLECTED IN GORBACHEV'S UNGA SPEECH. HOWEVER, HE REFUSED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE MODERNIZATION DEBATE BEYOND SAYING THE IRISH WOULD CONTINUE THEIR GENERAL POLICY OF URGING A QUICKENED PACE OF DISARMAMENT TO THE LOWEST POSSIBLE LEVEL. CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 02072 02 OF 03 041902Z LOG-OO 10-19 L-03 SP-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 OIC-02 CIAE-00 H-01 NEA-06 NSCE-00 ARA-00 NSAE-00 SSO-OO HA-09 TRSE-00 PM-10 PA-01 OMB-Ol INRE-00 USIE-00 SNP-01 C-01 PRS-01 P-02 T-01 /067 W ------------------ 133447 041904Z /47 45 O 041850Z APR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1892 INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW EC COLLECTIVE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 USINT HAVANA DIA WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 DUBLIN 0 2 0 7 2 EUROPE 5. GORBACHEV BEGAN BY INSISTING THE SOVIETS THOUGHT OF THEMSELVES AS STRONGLY EUROPEAN. HAUGHEY SAID HE BELIEVED EUROPE SHOULD BE DEFINED FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE URALS. GORBACHEV AGREED AND ADDED THAT HENRY KISSINGER BELIEVES EUROPE SHOULD BE DEFINED FROM WASHINGTON TO THE BORDERS OF THE SOVIET UNION. HE REJECTED THIS BUT INSISTED, AS HE DID SUBSEQUENTLY IN A BRIEF PRESS CONFERENCE, THAT THE "EUROPEAN PROCESS" COULD NOT BE SUCCESSFUL WITHOUT THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. "WITHOUT REALISM, THERE COULD BE NO EUROPEAN HOME, ONLY A RUBBISH HEAP." THE PROCESS MUST BEGIN FROM RECOGNITION OF THE EXISTENCE OF THE EC ON ONE SIDE AND THE CMEA ON THE OTHER AND NATO ON ONE SIDE, THE WARSAW PACT ON THE OTHER. THE SOVIET UNION ADMITS ITS MISTAKE AND NOW RECOGNIZES THE EC; THE USSR WANTS EXPANDED COOPERATION, INCLUDING FINANCIAL AND MONETARY. AS PERESTROIKA WILL BRING GREATER PROSPERITY TO THE USSR, MORE OPEN TRADING RELATIONS BETWEEN EAST CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02072 02 OF 03 041902Z AND WEST WILL BENEFIT BOTH SIDES. HAUGHEY AGREED THAT MORE TRADE WITH EASTERN EUROPE IS DESIRABLE. IRELAND DOES NOT FAVOR A FORTRESS EUROPE. MIDDLE EAST 6. GORBACHEV SAID HE BELIEVES THE MIDDLE EAST IS A SIGNIFICANT FLASHPOINT IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS WHICH DEMANDS GREATER INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION. HE SAID HE FAVORS A POLITICAL SOLUTION BASED ON NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ARAB COUNTRIES AND ISRAEL, THE SECURITY OF ALL COUNTRIES IN THE REGION, THE RETURN OF THE TERRITORIES AND THE RECOGNITION THAT THE PLIGHT OF THE PALESTINIANS IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. THE US. CANNOT PUSH THEM OUT OF THE ISSUE. THE U.S. APPROACH OF "SEPARATE DEALS" CANNOT WORK. HAUGHEY SAID HE COULD AGREE WITH MUCH OF WHAT GORBACHEV HAD SAID AND THAT HE AGREED ON THE NEED FOR AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE. HE NOTED IRELAND'S UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 PARTI C I P A T I O N IN UN I F I L AN D W E L C O M ED A N E W SOVIET ATTITUDE TO THE U.N. HAUGHEY SAID THE UNIFIL CONTINGENT WAS UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE IDF AND ISRAELI BACKED MILITIA AND URGED SOVIET SUPPORT FOR UNIFIL. GORBACHEV DID NOT RESPOND SUBSTANTIVELY. NORTHERN IRELAND 7. WHEN HAUGHEY RAISED NORTHERN IRELAND, GORBACHEV SAID IT WAS A SUBJECT HE HAD OFTEN DISCUSSED WITH MRS. THATCHER AND THAT IF HAUGHEY WANTED, HE WOULD RAISE IT WITH HER AGAIN ON HIS RETURN FROM CUBA. HAUGHEY SAID NORTHERN IRELAND IS HIS GOVERNMENT'S PRINCIPAL CONCERN. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 02072 02 OF 03 041902Z IT HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE IRISH DOMESTIC SCENE AND CREATES PERPETUAL TROUBLE IN ANGLO-IRISH RELATIONS. THE 1985 ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT HAD ACHIEVED SOME RESULTS, BUT NOT ENOUGH. IRISH UNITY REMAINS AN ASPIRATION. HAUGHEY THANKED GORBACHEV FOR SOVIET INTEREST IN THE BIRMINGHAM 6 AND GUILDFORD 4 CASES WHERE HE FEARED A CONTINUING MISCARRIAGE OF JUSTICE. AT THE PRESS CONFERENCE, GORBACHEV DEFTLY AVOIDED POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES BY CONFINING HIS REMARKS TO THE "HUMAN DIMENSION" OF THE NORTHERN IRELAND PROBLEM. THIS HAS LED THE IRISH TO BELIEVE GORBACHEV WILL RAISE SOME NORTHERN IRELAND ISSUES WITH THATCHER AND, IN AN UNUSUAL GESTURE (FOR HIM), HAUGHEY HAS CALLED THATCHER TO BRIEF HER ON THE MEETING. INTERNAL SOVIET DEVELOPMENTS 8. HAUGHEY EXPRESSED UNDERSTANDING AND SUPPORT FOR PERESTROIKA AND ASKED FOR A PROGRESS REPORT. GORBACHEV SAID PERESTROIKA IS AT A CRUCIAL STAGE-- EVERYTHING IS SET IN MOTION. THE PEOPLE SUPPORT PERESTROIKA BUT ARE CRITICAL OF ITS WEAKNESSES AND SLOW PACE. WHAT IS HAPPENING IS NOT A REVOLUTION FROM ABOVE BUT MOVEMENT FROM BELOW-- A BALANCE NEEDS TO BE FOUND. IN REFERRING TO THE ELECTIONS, GORBACHEV SAID THE MESSAGE IS THAT THE PEOPLE WANT MORE ACTION. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 02072 03 OF 03 041902Z LOG-00 10-19 L-03 SP-02 ADS-00 INR-07 SS-00 OIC-02 CIAE-00 NEA-06 NSCE-00 ARA-00 NSAE-00 SSO-OO TRSE-00 PM-10 PA-01 OMB-Ol INRE-00 SNP-01 C-01 PRS-01 P-02 T-01 ------------------ 133457 041905Z /47 O 041850Z APR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 18 93 INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW EC COLLECTIVE USINT HAVANA DIA WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L H-01 HA-09 USIE-00 /067 W SECTION 03 OF 03 DUBLIN 02072 BILATERAL RELATIONS 9. HAUGHEY RAISED THE ISSUE OF EXPANDED BILATERAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND CITED THREE POSSIBLE AREAS FOR DISCUSSION: -- A BARTER DEAL WHEREBY INCREASED SOVIET OIL EXPORTS TO IRELAND WOULD BE OFFSET BY SOVIET IMPORTS OF IRISH FOODSTUFFS; UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 --EXPANDED COOPERATION BETWEEN AEROFLOT AND THE IRISH AIRPORT AUTHORITY (AER RIANTA); AND --SHIP REPAIR FACILITIES AND FISHERIES. GORBACHEV SAID DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KAMENTSEV HAD SPECIFIC IDEAS AND PROPOSALS ON ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND (PRESUMABLY WITH HIS EYE ON THE ALREADY DELAYED DEPARTURE FOR HAVANA) SUGGESTED THE IRISH SEND A CONFIDENTIAL CONF I D E N T I A L PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02072 03 OF 03 041902Z MINISTERIAL DELEGATION TO MOSCOW TO MEET WITH KAMENTSEV TO DISCUSS THE PROPOSALS. (N.B., IRISH PLAN TO SEND A TEAM LED BY FOREIGN MINISTER LENIHAN, FINANCE MINISTER REYNOLDS AND TRANSPORT MINISTER WILSON TO MOSCOW IN SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER). COMMENT 10. THE IRISH ARE DELIGHTED WITH THE VISIT. HAUGHEY'S ADVISORS TELL US HE IS ELATED. ONE CALLED THE VISIT THE IDEAL "SOFT FOCUS PHOTO OP." THE SOVIETS CAN ALSO TAKE SATISFACTION. A TWO-HOUR STOPOVER HAS GENERATED MORE POSITIVE PUBLICITY FOR THE SOVIET UNION HERE THAN IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE STATE. THE SOVIETS PLAYED IT SKILLFULLY AND SUBTLY UNDERLINING, WITHOUT EVER MENTIONING THE WORD, THE BENEFITS TO IRELAND OF NEUTRALITY. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686404 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686405 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED PAGE Cl ORIGIN EUR-00 STATE INFO ADS-00 SSO-OO /022 R LOG-00 NSAE-00 P-02 107822 INR-0 7 PM-10 SS-00 INRE-00 CIAE-00 A-00 DODE-OO SP-02 NSCE-00 C-01 DRAFTED BY: TEXT RECEIVED FROM WHITE HOUSE/EUR/NE:KLONGMYER APPROVED BY: EUR:MJWILKINSON EUR/NE :VGRAY EUR:MJWILKINSON S/S-C: MWYATT EUR/NE:EMHEAPHY S/S:JSROY S/S-0:SMANN DESIRED DISTRIBUTION ALSO SSC ?350225 070545Z /22 O 070527Z APR 89 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY DUBLIN IMMEDIATE RELEASED IN FULL UNCLAS STATE 107822 E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: El, OPDC SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL, MESSAGE FOR PRIME MINISTER (S/S 8907371) 1. PLEASE DELIVER THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT TO PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY AT THE EARLIEST APPROPRIATE OPPORTUNITY. BEGIN TEXT: DEARMR. PRIME MINISTER: I WAS DELIGHTED TO GREET YOU AND YOUR COLLEAGUES DURING YOUR VISIT TO THE WHITE HOUSE ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY. IT'S AWAYS A GENUINE PLEASURE TO WELCOME FRIENDS ON THIS HAPPY OCCASION. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 STATE 107822 I VALUED OUR MEETING ON SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES AFFECTING THE WELFARE OF OUR TWO COUNTRIES, AND I LOOK FORWARD TO CONTINUING OUR CLOSE WORKING RELATIONSHIP. REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686405 Date: 09/04/2012 E36 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686405 Date: 09/04/2012 T H A N K Y O U V E R Y M U C H F O R THE M A G N I F I C E N T W A T E R F O R D CRYSTA BOWL FILLED WITH SHAMROCKS. I'M TRULY GRATEFUL FOR THIS WARM GESTURE OF IRISH-AMERICAN GOODWILL. BARBARA ASKS THAT I CONVEY HER SPECIAL THANKS FOR THE BEAUTIFUL IRISH LINENS. SHE DEEPLY APPRECIATES YOUR KIND GESTURE. WITH OUR BEST WISHES, SINCERELY, GEORGE BUSH HIS EXCELLENCY CHARLES HAUGHEY PRIME MINISTER OF IRELAND DUBLIN END TEXT. THE SIGNED ORIGINAL WILL FOLLOW. BAKER UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686405 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686406 Date: 09/04/2012 j j i CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ORIGIN EUR-00 STATE INFO ADS-00 LOG-00 112702 /000 R DRAFTED BY: EUR/NE:KLONGMYER (0429S) APPROVED BY: E U R : MJWILKINSON EUR/NE: VSGRAY EUR/SOV:ISILINS ------------------ 320405 120408Z /20 P 120127Z APR 89 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY DUBLIN PRIORITY INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 112702 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, El, UR SUBJECT: IRELAND OFFERS TO HOST SUMMIT RELEASED IN FULL 1 ------------- 1 - 1. CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT. 2. ON APRIL 10, IRISH AMBASSADOR MACKERNAN CALLED EUR DAS JAMES WILKINSON TO SAY THAT HE HAD BEEN INSTRUCTED TO CONFIRM THAT DURING THE RECENT GORBA HEV VISIT TO SHANNON AIRPORT, PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY HAD OFERED IRELAND AS A POSSIBLE SITE FOR A U.S. - SOVIE SUMM T. DUBLIN HAD ASKED MACKERNAN TO STATE THAT THE GOI WOULD BE PLEASED AND HONORED TO PROVIDE APPROPRIATE FACILIT S SHOULD BOTH SIDES DESIRE TO MEET IN IRELAND. WILKINSON ACCEPTED THE INFORMATION WITHOUT COMMENT. 3. MACKERNAN ALSO NOTED THAT LITTLE OF SUBSTANCE HAD OCCURRED DURING THE SOVIET LEADER'S VISIT AND BRIEF TAKS. THERE HAD BEEN NO SPECIFICS, EVEN ON ECONOMIC AFAIRS, BUT THE IRISH WILL BE SENDING A HIGH LEVEL DELEGATION TO MOSCOW SHORTLY TO EXPLORE POSSIBILITIES FOR EXPANDING RELATIONS IN THIS AREA. BAKER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 STATE REVIEW AUTHORITY: 112702 Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686406 Date: 09/04/2012 37 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686406 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686406 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2D10-07900 Doc No. C17686407 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ACTION ARA-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 H-01 TRSE-00 SNP-01 LOG-00 DODE-OO L-03 SP-02 /062 W 02011 311706Z INR-0 7 10-19 PM-10 C-01 EUR-00 NSCE-00 PA-01 SSE-01 SS-00 NSAE-00 OMB-Ol PRS-01 ?261772 O 311705Z MAR 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 18 72 INFO EC COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY MOSCOW C O N F I D E N T I A L OIC-02 SSO-OO INRE-00 P-02 CIAE-00 HA-09 USIE-00 T-01 311729Z /44 RELEASED IN FULL DUBLIN 02011 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL, El, US, UR, NU SUBJECT: DEMARCHE ON BIPARTISAN ACCORD ON CENTRAL AMERICA REF: (A) STATE 093892, 1. (B) STATE 094212 (NOTAL) (C--ENTIRE TEXT.) 2. SUMMARY. IRISH WELCOME THE BIPARTISAN ACCORD AND WOULD SUPPORT A FAVORABLE EC STATEMENT. HOWEVER, GOI WILL NOT ISSUE ITS OWN STATEMENT. CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOT ON THE AGENDA FOR THE GORBACHEV-HAUGHEY MEETING APRIL 2, BUT IN RESPONSE TO OUR REQUEST THE IRISH MAY RAISE NICARAGUA IN PASSING. END SUMMARY. 3. DCM CARRIED OUT DEMARCHE REQUESTED REFTELS WITH DFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR MURPHY IN TWO MEETINGS MARCH 2 9 AND 31. IN ADDITION TO MAKING POINTS REF A AND LEAVING COPIES OF THE AGREEMENT AND THE PRESIDENT'S STATEMENT, DCM UNDERLINED THE CONGRUITY OF CERTAIN ELEMENTS OF THE ACCORD WITH LONGSTANDING IRISH VIEWS ON CENTRAL AMERICA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 DUBLIN 02011 311706Z AND URGED GOI TO ACKNOWLEDGE THEM WITH A STATEMENT OF SUPPORT. HE NOTED FURTHER SECRETARY BAKER'S CONVERSATION ON CENTRAL AMERICA WITH PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY AND URGED THAT HAUGHEY RAISE THE ACCORD DURING GORBACHEV'S [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686407 Date: 09/04/2012 E38 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686407 Date: 09/04/2012 STOPOVER AT SHANNON AIRPORT O APRIL 2. N 4. MURPHY WELCOMED THE ACCORD NOTING THAT IT GOES IN THE DIRECTION WHICH THE EC 12 HAVE LONG BEEN URGING. COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIALLY "HISTORIC" NICARAGUAN AGREEMENT ON MODALITIES FOR AN ELECTION AT THE TESORO BEACH MEETING, MURPHY OPINED THINGS WERE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME. HE GAVE SOME CREDIT TO THE SOVIETS WHO, IN HIS VIEW, HAVE BEEN CRITICAL OF SANDINISTA HANDLING OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND ECONOMIC ISSUES RECENTLY. WHEN PRESSED ON WHETHER THE GOI WOULD ISSUE A STATEMENT WELCOMING THE ACCORD, MURPHY DEMURRED. IRELAND PREFERRED NOT TO ISSUE A STATEMENT ON A REGIONAL DISPUTE IN WHICH THEY WERE NOT DIRECTLY INVOLVED, BUT WOULD SUPPORT A FAVORABLE EC STATEMENT IF PROPOSED BY SOMEONE ELSE. 5. WE PLACED CONSIDERABLE EMPHASIS ON HAUGHEY'S DISCUSSION WITH SECRETARY BAKER ON CENTRAL AMERICA AS THE BASIS FOR THE REQUEST FOR HAUGHEY TO RAISE CENTRAL AMERICA DURING GORBACHEV'S TWO-HOUR STOPOVER AT SHANNON AIRPORT APRIL 2. INITIALLY, MURPHY WAS NOT RECEPTIVE. HE SAID TIME WAS VERY SHORT, THE ONLY REGIONAL ISSUE ON THE AGENDA WAS THE MIDDLE EAST AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY, IRELAND HAD NO DIRECT INTEREST IN CENTRAL AMERICA. WE NOTED WE WERE NOT ASKING FOR A DETAILED DISCUSSION OF CENTRAL AMERICA, ONLY ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THE BIPARTISAN ACCORD AS A MOVE FORWARD AND THE NEED FOR THE SOVIETS TO BE HELPFUL, OR AT LEAST NOT BLOCK PROGRESS. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 DUBLIN 02011 311706Z 6. SUBSEQUENTLY, MURPHY TOLD US HE HAD DISCUSSED THE ISSUE WITH HAUGHEY WHO NOTED THE GOOD VISIT HE HAD IN WASHINGTON WITH THE PRESIDENT AND THE SECRETARY AND HIS DESIRE TO BE HELPFUL. HE INDICATED HE WOWLD CONSIDER RAISING THE ISSUE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SCHEDULED EXCHANGE ON THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION. MURPHY TOLD US IF HAUGHEY DID MENTION THE ISSUE IT WOULD BE VERY BRIEFLY AND ONLY TO NOTE THE NEED FOR PROGRESS IN CENTRAL AMERICA AS PART OF THE WIDER EFFORT TO REDUCE INTERNATIONAL TENSIONS. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686407 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686407 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686407 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 ?>> UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 EXIM-0 6 OPIC-07 USIE-00 LOG-OO H-01 ITC-01 FRB-01 /051 W 01047 01 OF 03 AID-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 JUSE-00 INR-0 7 COME-00 STR-17 SP-02 141012Z CIAE-00 LAB-04 INRE-00 C-01 ?301715 R 141002Z FEB 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1596 INFO EC COLLECTIVE EB-00 CTME-00 SEC-01 E-01 DODE-OO TRSE-00 AGRE-00 T-01 141359Z /49 RELEASED IN FULL UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 01047 BRUSSELS FOR USEC PASS AGRICULTURE ELECTRONICALLY FOR T&C, DLP AND ERS BATF FOR BUSEY E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: ECON, EFIN, E AGR, El SUBJECT: FINANCE MINISTER ANNOUNCES 198 9 BUDGET 1. SUMMARY: FINANCE MINISTER ALBERT REYNOLDS PRESENTED THE GOVERNMENT'S 1989 BUDGET TO THE IRISH PARLIAMENT (DAIL) ON JANUARY 25. THE BUDGET IS GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO BE A SAFE, CONSERVATIVE ONE WHICH BUILDS ON THE GOVERNMENT'S SUCCESS IN RECENT YEARS IN REDUCING THE EXCHEQUER BORROWING REQUIREMENT AND STABLIZING NATIONAL DEBT. MINISTER REYNOLDS ANNOUNCED MINOR CUTS IN TAXATION FOR THOSE IN THE STANDARD AND UPPER TAX BRACKETS, BUT OFFSET THOSE CUTS BY REDUCING SOME DEDUCTIONS, AND BY RAISING EXCISE TAXES ON BEER, ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND GASOLINE. EXCHEQUER BORROWING FOR THE YEAR IS ESTIMATED AT IP UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01047 01 OF 03 141012Z 1.057 BILLION. COMBINED WITH REYNOLD'S ESTIMATE OF REAL GNP GROWTH IN 198 9 (3 PERCENT), EXCHEQUER BORROWING WOULD AMOUNT TO ABOUT 5.3 PERCENT OF GNP THIS YEAR, COMPARED TO AN UNDERLYING RATE OF ABOUT 6.1 [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 3g U N C LAS SIFIE D U.S. Departm ent of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 PERCENT IN 1988 (OMITTING THE EFFECTS OF THE GOVERNMENT'S TAX AMNESTY). 2. REACTION TO THE BUDGET MESSAGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY SUBDUED, PRIMARILY BECAUSE HELD NO REAL SURPRISES. POLITICAL POLLS TAKEN AFTER THE BUDGET ANNOUNCEMENT SHOWED THAT ALMOST 70 PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED BELIEVED THAT THE BUDGET WAS GENERALLY AS THEY HAD EXPECTED, AND 73 PERCENT INDICATED THAT THE BUDGET WOULD NOT BRING ABOUT A CHANGE IN THEIR LIVING STANDARDS. THE BUDGET ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE GIVEN A BOOST TO THE RULING FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT, WHICH NOW ENJOYS THE SUPPORT OF 54 PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED. GIVEN THE PUBLIC REACTION, IT SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE BUDGET WILL PROVIDE OPPOSITION PARTIES ANY INROADS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT OF PRIME MINISTER CHARLES HAUGHEY. END SUMMARY. 3. THE 1989 BUDGET ANNOUNCED BY FINANCE MINISTER ALBERT REYNOLDS ON JANUARY 25 OFFERED FEW SURPRISES. CONTINUING THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY OF RECENT YEARS, THE MAIN THEME OF THE 198 9 BUDGET IS REDUCING THE EXCHEQUER BORROWING REQUIREMENT AND STABLIZING THE NATIONAL DEBT. IN 19B8, THE GOVERNMENT ENJOYED A LARGE MEASURE OF SUCCESS IN REDUCING ITS BORROWING NEEDS, THANKS TO A VERY SUCCESSFUL TAX AMNESTY (WHICH BROUGHT IN IP 500 MILLION), LOWER INTEREST RATES, LOWER THAN EXPECTED UNEMPLOYMENT AND GENERAL TAX BUOYANCY. IN EARLY 1988, THE GOVERNMENT ESTIMATED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01047 01 OF 03 141012Z THAT EXCHEQUER BORROWING WOULD AMOUNT TO ABOUT IP 1.477 BILLION, OR ABOUT 8.2 PERCENT OF ESTIMATED GNP. BY THE END OF THE YEAR, THE ACTUAL FIGURES PUT EXCHEQUER BORROWING AT ONLY ABOUT IP 619 MILLION, OR ROUGHLY 3.3 PERCENT OF GNP. EXCLUDING THE ONE TIME TAX AMNESTY RECEIPTS, BORROWING WOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT 6.1 PERCENT OF GNP. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE SUCCESS ACHIEVED IN 1988, THE NATIONAL DEBT STILL INCREASED BY IP 900 MILLION DURING THE YEAR. 4. THE 1989 BUDGET ESTIMATES THE COUNTRY'S BORROWING REQUIREMENT AT IP 1.057 MILLION. COMBINED WITH ESTIMATED GNP GROWTH OF 3 PERCENT THIS YEAR, THIS FIGURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5.3 PERCENT OF GNP. THIS RESULT PUTS THE GOVERNMENT WELL WITHIN THE TARGET SET UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 IN THE PROGRAM FOR NATIONAL RECOVERY SIGNED WITH THE SOCIAL PARTNERS IN O C T O B E R 1987, W H I C H CALLED F O R A N EXCHEQUER BORROWING REQUIREMENT IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 PERCENT OF GNP. 5. GIVEN THE GOVERNMENTS BUDGET SUCCESS IN 1988 AND THE GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY, IT WAS GENERALLY ASSUMED THAT MINISTER REYNOLDS WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE ROOM FOR MANEUVER IN THE 1989 BUDGET. HE RESPONDED BY REDUCING THE STANDARD TAX RATE FROM 35 PERCENT TO 32 PERCENT, AND THE TOP RATE FROM 58 PERCENT TO 56 PERCENT. THESE TAX REDUCTIONS ARE ESTIMATED TO REDUCE REVENUES BY IP 126 MILLION. THERE WERE NO CHANGES ANNOUNCED FOR CORPORATE TAXATION. HOWEVER, THE MINISTER SAID THAT THERE WOULD BE A REVIEW OF CORPORATE TAX POLICIES DURING THE 1990 BUDGET PROCESS. IN ADDITION REYNOLDS ANNOUNCED GENERAL INCREASES IN SOCIAL WELFARE PAYMENTS OF THREE PERCENT, WITH A SPECIAL 12 PERCENT INCREASE FOR THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED. UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 DUBLIN ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-OO H-01 ITC-01 FRB-01 /051 W 01047 ADS-00 EXIM-06 OPIC-07 USIE-00 R 141002Z FEB 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1597 INFO EC COLLECTIVE 02 OF 03 AID-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 JUSE-00 141013Z INR-07 COME-OO STR-17 SP-02 CIAE-00 LAB-04 INRE-00 C-01 -301752 EB-00 CTME-00 SEC-01 E-01 DODE-OO TRSE-00 AGRE-00 T-01 141400Z /49 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 DUBLIN 0104 7 BRUSSELS FOR USEC PASS AGRICULTURE ELECTRONICALLY FOR T&C, DLP AND ERS BATF FOR BUSEY 6. CONCESSIONS IN THE BUDGET WERE OFFSET, IN LARGE MEASURE, BY INCREASES IN THE EXCISE TAX ON BEER (1 PENCE PER PINT), ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES (2 PENCE PER GLASS OF SPIRITS AND 4 PENCE PER BOTTLE OF WINE), TOBACCO (4 PENCE PER PACK OF 20) AND GASOLINE (5 PENCE PER GALLON). TAKEN TOGETHER, THESE EXCISE TAX INCREASES ARE EXPECTED TO MEAN IP 28.5 MILLION IN ADDITIONAL REVENUE FOR THE GOVERNMENT. IN ADDITION REYNOLDS ANNOUNCED THE REDUCTION OF TAX DEDUCTIONS FOR MORTGAGE INTEREST AND LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUMS, A CHANGE WHICH HE SAID WOULD BRING IN NEW REVENUE OF IP 16.8 MILLION. 7. THE GOVERNMENT'S BUDGET PROVIDED FOR A MODEST 1.7 PERCENT INCREASE IN CURRENT SPENDING FROM 1988 ACTUAL SPENDING LEVELS, WHICH IN VIEW OF EXPECTED INFLATION UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01047 02 OF 03 141013Z (ESTIMATED AT 2.75 PERCENT FOR 1989) MEANS A REAL DECREASE. CAPITAL SPENDING, ON THE OTHER HAND IS SLATED TO INCREASE BY ABOUT 6.2 PERCENT IN NOMINAL TERMS, A WELCOME PROSPECT TO THE BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY WHICH HAS SUFFERED IN RECENT YEARS FROM GOVERNMENT CUTBACKS IN CAPITAL SPENDING. 8. THE INCREASE IN THE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BUDGET IS DUE PRIMARILY TO THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL STRUCTURAL FUND TRANSFERS FROM THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IN 1989. IRELAND RECEIVED ABOUT IP 339.3 MILLION FROM THE EC STRUCTURAL FUNDS IN 1988, INCLUDING ABOUT IP 145 MILLION FROM THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND. THE EC HAS ALREADY COMMITTED IP 125 MILLION FOR IRELAND IN 1989, AND ACCORDING TO MINISTER REYNOLDS, WILL COMMIT AT LEAST IP 75 MILLION MORE. CONSEQUENTLY, MINISTER REYNOLDS PROVIDED IN THE BUDGET FOR NEW PROJECTS WORTH IP 60.5 MILLION, INCLUDING IP 34 MILLION FOR ROAD IMPROVEMENTS, IP 10 MILLION FOR UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 SANITARY SERVICES, IP 11.5 MILLION FOR INDUSTRIAL PROMOTION AND MARKETING, IP 3.5 MILLION FOR TOURISM DEVELOPMENT, IP 1.5 MILLION FOR FISHERY HARBOR DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, REYNOLDS ANNOUNCED SPECIAL GRANT ASSISTANCE OF IP 14.5 MILLION FROM THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND WHICH WOULD NOT INVOLVE EXCHEQUER EXPENDITURES. 9. OVERALL, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM IP 9.369 BILLION IN 1988 (ACTUAL) TO ABOUT IP 9.596 BILLION IN 198 9, AND INCREASE OF 2.4 PERCENT IN NOMINAL TERMS. HOWEVER, CORRECTED FOR EXPECTED INFLATION, THE BUDGET REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPENDING OVERALL. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 DUBLIN 01047 02 OF 03 141013Z 10. THERE WERE A FEW CHANGES AFFECTING AGRICULTURE. THE MINISTER RAISED THE VALUE ADDED TAX (VAT) REFUND TO FARMERS FROM 1.4 PERCENT OF SALES TO 2 PERCENT, AT A COST OF IP 12 MILLION. THIS REFUND COMPENSATES THE SMALLER FARMERS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED FOR VAT AND THEREFORE ARE UNABLE TO RECLAIM VAT OF FARM EXPENSES. POORER FARM FAMILIES WILL ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE SPECIAL MEASURES FOR LOW INCOME FAMILIES. UNDER A PILOT SCHEME TO ENCOURAGE THE USE OF CALF TWINNING TECHNIQUES, A GRANT OF IP 20 PER TREATED COW WILL BE PAID UP TO A MAXIMUM OF 1000 COWS. 11. DESPITE THE CONCESSION ON VAT, FARMER ORGANIZATIONS' REACTION TO THE BUDGET HAS BEEN HOSTILE. THE IFA CHARGED THAT THERE WERE NO MAJOR NEW INITIATIVES TO STIMULATE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND THAT THE MINISTER HAD NOT GONE FAR ENOUGH ON THE VAT REFUND. THE RIVAL ICMSA STRONGLY CRITICISED THE MINISTER'S FIRM COMMITMENT NOT TO GIVE WAY ON ICMSA'S DEMANDS FOR A RETURN TO A LAND TAX OPTION FOR FARMERS, INSTEAD OF INCOME TAX ON ACCOUNTS. 12. GENERAL REACTIONS TO THE GOVERNMENT'S BUDGET HAVE RANGED FROM MUTED TO MILDLY FAVORABLE. ALMOST NO ONE DISAGREES WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S EMPHASIS ON CONSOLIDATING AND BUILDING UPON PAST SUCCESS IN BRINGING PUBLIC FINANCES AND DEBT UNDER CONTROL. THE SUCCESS OF THOSE EFFORTS HAVE PAID OFF RATHER WELL IN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 DUBLIN INFO ADS-00 EXIM-0 6 OPIC-07 USIE-00 LOG-OO H-01 ITC-01 FRB-01 /051 W 01047 03 OF 03 AID-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 JUSE-00 INR-0 7 COME-00 STR-17 SP-02 141012Z CIAE-00 LAB-04 INRE-00 C-01 -301751 EB-00 CTME-00 SEC-01 E-01 DODE-OO TRSE-00 AGRE-00 T-01 141400Z /49 R 1410022 FEB 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1598 INFO EC COLLECTIVE UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 DUBLIN 01047 BRUSSELS FOR USEC PASS AGRICULTURE ELECTRONICALLY FOR T&C, DLP AND ERS BATF FOR BUSEY THE FORM OF REDUCED PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWING REQUIREMENTS, LOW INFLATION (2.1 PERCENT IN 1988), REDUCED INTEREST RATES, LOWER THAN EXPECTED UNEMPLOYMENT, STRONG EXPORTS, LARGE TRADE AND CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES, AND GOOD ECONOMIC GROWTH. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. h-^UlU-U/'aiJU uoc No. C l /t>et>4U0 uate: u y /iw z u \ . , / 13. THERE IS ALSO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE REDUCTION OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX RATES IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH ONLY A SMALL ONE SO FAR. PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY TOLD REPORTERS, A FEW DAYS AFTER REYNOLDS' BUDGET SPEECH, THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD INTRODUCE FURTHER TAX RATE CUTS NEXT YEAR, IF BUDGET TARGETS WERE MET IN 1989. 14. THE INCREASES IN SOCIAL WELFARE PAYMENTS, WHILE NOT THE BROAD ATTACK ON POVERTY IN IRELAND THAT SOME UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 DUBLIN 01047 03 OF 03 141012Z HAVE ADVOCATED, IS GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO BE A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT, GIVEN THE NEED FOR CONTINUED FISCAL AUSTERITY. THE 12 PERCENT INCREASE FOR THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED WAS PARTICULARLY WELCOME TO THOSE WHO CHAMPION SOCIAL CONCERNS. IN RECENT MONTHS, BOTH THE IRISH CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ICTU) AND THE CATHOLIC CHURCH HAVE SPOKEN OUT ABOUT THE PLIGHT OF THE POOR IN IRELAND. 15. JOB CREATION HAS BEEN ANOTHER FAVORITE TOPIC OF UNION LEADERS IN RECENT MONTHS. MINISTER REYNOLDS SAID VERY LITTLE ABOUT THE SUBJECT IN HIS BUDGET SPEECH, INDICATING ONLY THAT A NUMBER OF CAPITAL PROJECTS FUNDED IN THE 198 9 BUDGET WOULD HELP TO CREATE MORE JOBS. HOWEVER, PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY SAID IN HIS SPEECH ON THE BUDGET (FEB. 1) THAT THE MEASURES INTRODUCED BY MINISTER REYNOLDS WOULD CREATE SEVERAL THOUSAND JOBS, AND THAT THE GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TOTAL EMPLOYMENT TO INCREASE BY 13,000 DURING 1989. 16. EMBASSY COMMENTS TO BE REPORTED SEPTEL. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686408 Date: 09/04/2012 21 4 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. I-- U U-U/'auu uoc No. U l/b >> b ua uaie: u y /tw z u iz LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 01 ACTION EUR-00 INFO DUBLIN 00603 271117Z LOG-OO STR-17 ADS-00 OIC-02 EB-00 10-19 COME-OO AMAD-01 AGRE-00 /039 W ------------------ 315215 281202Z /26 11 38 R 271118Z JAN 89 FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN TO SECSTATE WASHDC 148 6 INFO EC COLLECTIVE ______________ USMISSION GENEVA [RELEASED IN FULL) LIMITED OFFICIAL USE DUBLIN 00603 STATE PASS AGRICULTURE ELECTRONICALLY FOR O ' MARA/ITP; PASS USTR GENEVA PASS USTR ____________ [d e c o n t r o l l e d ! E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PREL, EAGR, E E C , El SUBJECT: NEW IRISH COMMISSIONER FOR THE EEC FOLLOWING TEL SENT ACTION SECSTATE, INFO EC COLLECTIVE 22 NOV 88 BEING REPEATED FOR YOUR INFO: QUOTE: LIMITED OFFICIAL USE DUBLIN 06557 STATE ALSO FOR EUR/NE AND INR/B E.O. 12356: N/A TAGS: PREL, EEC, El SUBJECT: NEW IRISH COMMISSIONER FOR THE EEC 1. THE LONG-ANTICIPATED ANNOUNCEMENT OF RAY MACSHARRY, LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 02 DUBLIN 00603 271117Z FINANCE MINISTER, TO BE THE NEW IRISH COMMISSIONER WAS MADE BY PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY ON WEDNESDAY, 16 NOVEMBER. THE IRISH GOVERNMENT HAS REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT MACSHARRY, WHO WILL BE REPLACING PETER SUTHERLAND, REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686409 Date: 09/04/2012 /j (j UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686409 Date: 09/04/2012 W I L L R ECEIVE EIT H E R THE A G R I C U L T U R E O R THE STRUCTURAL FUND PORTFOLIO. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ALBERT REYNOLDS, MINISTER FOR INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE, WILL BECOME THE NEW FINANCE MINISTER. 2. BIO NOTE. MACSHARRY, AGED 50, IS THE HEIR-APPARENT TO PRIME MINISTER HAUGHEY AS LEADER OF FIANNA FAIL, STANDING HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS ABOVE THE OTHER CONTENDERS IN THE GOVERNING PARTY. INDEED, SO FIRMLY IS HIS EVENTUAL SUCCESSION SET IN THE PUBLIC MIND, THAT THE RECENT SERIOUS ILLNESS OF THE PRIME MINISTER PROVOKED A ROUND OF SPECULATION THAT MACSHARRY WOULD NOT BE GOING TO BRUSSELS AFTER ALL. 3. AS A SELF-MADE MAN (IN AGRICULTURAL SERVICES), LACKING A UNIVERSITY EDUCATION, MACSHARRY IS A HARD WORKER WITH THE REPUTATION OF A POWERFUL MEMORY. HE USES HIS STAFF WELL, TRUSTING IN THEIR ADVICE. HE HAS RECEIVED HIGH MARKS FOR ALL HIS MINISTERIAL STINTS, NOTABLY IN THE EEC CONTEXT AS AGRICULTURE MINISTER DURING THE 1979 IRISH PRESIDENCY. (HE WAS AN MEP 1984-87.) 4. HIS POLITICAL CAREER, HOWEVER, HAS NOT BEEN WITHOUT DARK PERIODS. FIRST ELECTED TO THE IRISH PARLIAMENT IN 1969, HE MADE HIS CAREER MOVE, AS A JUNIOR MINISTER, BY OPPOSING HIS MINISTER IN THE SUCCESSION TO JACK LYNCH AS FIANNA FAIL LEADER IN 1979 AND BACKING--ACTUALLY NOMINATING--THE EVENTUAL WINNER, LIMITED OFFICIAL USE LIMITED OFFICIAL USE PAGE 03 DUBLIN 00603 271117Z CHARLES HAUGHEY. HE HAS REMAINED CONSTANT TO HAUGHEY THROUGHOUT THE SUBSEQUENT CHALLENGES TO HIS LEADERSHIP. IN ONE SUCH CHALLENGE, HE WAS CAUGHT UP ON THE PERIPHERY OF A BUGGING SCANDAL. THOUGH HIS PERSONAL HONOR WAS VINDICATED, HE HAD TO RESIGN HIS FRONT-BENCH POST AND FOR FIVE YEARS DID NOT RETURN TO A LEADERSHIP POSITION UNTIL NAMED MINISTER FOR FINANCE IN MARCH 1987. AS FINANCE MINISTER, HE HAS ENJOYED THE CONFIDENCE AND ESTEEM OF VIRTUALLY ALL THE PARTIES AS HE BROUGHT PUBLIC FINANCES BACK FROM THE VIRTUAL BANKRUPTCY OF THE MID-1980S. HECKLER UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686409 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686409 Date: 09/04/2012 UNQUOTE HECKLER LIMITED OFFICIAL USE NNNN UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686409 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686410 Date: 09/04/2012 [TREAT AS ORIG TO FAIM 3lSt to: PURPOSE: -- Haughey would like to get acquainted with you and to discuss Anglo-Irish efforts to address the problems of Northern Ireland. -- A meeting would also provide an opportunity for you to encourage Ireland to continue playing positive roles in : Northern Ireland, the EC, and in the UN. :' 5 ) 5/S 5/S-S {RELEASED IN FULL mA PMB 2UR CNR >A ?M BACKGROUND: Haughey will visit the U.S. March 15 the invitation of the Speaker of the Representatives. The Prime Minister indicated that he would like to call on March 16 and to present shamrocks President on St. Patrick's Day. TIMING: The Prime Minister would prefer to meet you on March 16. The call Would last 30 minutes. LOCATION: Your office. PROPOSED PARTICIPANTS: U.S. 3/P *F/pb [d e c o n t r o l l e d ! y |REVIEW AUTHORITY: -- 17 at House of has on you to the Ireland The Prime Minister The Secretary Ambassador MacKernan Assistant Secretary Ridgway Under Secretary Padraig o ' Huiginn Ambassador , Margaret Heckler DCM Martin Burke Desk Officer for Ireland Kenneth Longmyer (Notetaker) - Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686410 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686410 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686410 Date: 09/04/2012 U N U L A S S ih lh D U.S. Department or sta te uase n o . h -^ u iu -u ^ y u u u o c n o . u i/ b b b 4 iu uate: uy/u 4/ 2u i^ S b 08O^8-| 1 2 8 LIMITED OFFICIAL USE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686415 Date: 09/04/2012 fc- RELEASED IN FULL -' r 8903238 (Jnitrd S t a l e * DXSTt P S 3i ) !i h 3 - ! g q E P C S/S s/s-s TKA TMB ' 89 De p a r t m r n t of S t a t e W inu , D . 20, a gin .C ih February 18, P s c f c N t t * 0 F ERI B PI MS MEMORANDUM FOP BRENT SC OWCROFT j THE WHITE HOUSE EUP. S/CPR R F :rw ! FE6 ~ L r'"~ Appointment Request for Irish Prime Mi Haughey Subject: Irish Prime Minister Charles Haughey will visit the U.S. March 15 - 17 as the guest of Speaker of the House of Representatives Jim Wright. The Speaker will give a lunch for the Prime Minister on March 17. We understand that the Speaker plans to invite the President to join them. Mr. Haughey has indicated that he would like to sake the traditional St. Patrick's Day call on the President on the morning of March 17 to present a bowl of Shamrocks and to discuss issues of mutual interest. The Prime Minister has also requested a meeting with Secretary Baker. Receiving the prime Minister would provide an excellent opportunity for the President to pay tribute to the friendship and ties which exist between Ireland and the United States, to affirm U.S. support for the Anglo-Irish Agreement, and to encourage Americans to reject organizations which support terrorism. Such a meeting would also provide an occasion to discuss bilateral issues including immigration. Melvyn Levitsky Executive Secretary Attachments: Biographic information on Prime Minister Haughey REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686415 Date: 09/04/2012 >md for Ireland. -- We expect that Haughey will urge the Bush Adainibtration to support continued contributions to the Fund. ' He say use this occasion to enourage the Adainiatration to seek allocations from Congress to enable the U.S. to meet completely our assessment for UN peacekeeping operations, especially UNIFIL. Haughey will want your impressions of East-West relations and prospects for arms control. II. KBY FOISTS Haughey is visiting the U.S. at the invitation of Speaker >Jia Wright. The Prime Minister is taking advantage o f the opportunity to discuss several key issues w i y o u , the President, secretary Brady, and Meabera of Congress. s fBICROm e lm u m i This call provides an opportunity for you * 7 VF i " Bayc^g^onEflfi.fcsliewfci-lssues, to express su^nnrt- -for Anglo-Irish efforts tn. p>nhl>>..! nf Soramrn lf^land. and to enco>>f f < > IrAland to rpj - - >> " -* ? N llAiiic _? prpyent: * ,L - from - - ' ^.ihya i -n ? ?........... ................ 1 ? ? providing weapons and explosives to the IRA. CONFIDENTIAL*. __________________ DECL:OADR [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer! o UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State C a s e N ^ S l S S 7 9 0 ^ o c N ^ 1 7 6 8 6 4 2 ^ a t S ^ ^ S K - '- v f >> 'vV 'i UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686424 Date: 09/04/2012 . * y. >>>;*v* oo ? v.*- vy , - j i -' b >> vv ?o s *' '-- kV' ' ' . o .. COHrlL-ENTIAL 2 - III, PAmCIfrAgTS U>>S<< i l l S i,V Ireland $ ?&(? Secretary A&Si&tant Secretary Ridgway S9S/8E aireecor Gray O Prise Minister Baughey Noel Dorr Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ambassador HacKernan Padcaic O huiginn secretary to the Prise Minister Hartin Burke Political Counselor AsbsBsadox Hsctcler Desk office* -T^ongsyer ; ? jwViv1o.o>e*-H/>> * >>X--< fe-r \ o ? *"*. * v o*'V ''o' * ' ?. f c V Tfcere Will be a photo opportunity before the aeeting o' ;3Ct:E^ce of ctsskc;? ' SS>i . & " ' '* r *v * o T ?o>><< assistant Secretary Ridgway, end 'Ambassador -Reed- will meet the Prime Minister at the Diplomatic Eft.fccanbe ....... .. and escort hia to the Jawes Hadison Room. " ' ' " : ' v Rttachoentat ?j&Mre.-i-u ? 4, ^ai^inq points. (C) g rap h ic in fo rm a tio n on P rim e M in is te r Baughey Ki.ongsyes^' x76;?>?l wOHSi VSGray \y$o BffR/SBt EKHeaphy ?^. A I D / A R E / B(R) * E E * (C) t m \ I>>t8Ricby^- S t \ VrVV. .o ? .o o ;AH*> ,.v.. v\ i << * .... 2 P *m &v C0H3FI BESTIAL o ? --.>>w o.o,* ' >' '< UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686424 Date: 09/04/2012 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686418 Date: 09/04/2012 ,,. psm n 5 h - n i 7 i . S/S 8905566 C O N RD EN Tm L lni St* te* Dep*rtme,it nf s* e jt ii^ tt /{ faknin D C 2 5 0 rtigo, , . 0 2 RELEASED IN FULL ORIGINAL TO wH March 16, 1589 Copies to: MEMORANDUM FOR BRENT StOW'CROFT THE WHITE HOUSE: p Subjects g Irish Prime Minister Charles Haughey's Call on the President o\ ~Q r Attached are background information, talking points and C biographic information for the President's meeting with Irish Prime Mini#tar Charles Haughey. Prise Ministers of Ireland s / s accapt a responsibility to represent the interests of the Rationalist (Catholic) minority in Northern Ireland. Haughey >h*a to discass Kith t i President Jtash efforts to wpr* te *he 0 5 1 tin>f4 vho has no: y * v. 3 5 ^ - 2 art icu la ted his views on the Angio-Trish agreement, thp International Fund for Ireland, or the MacBride Principles, EUR >>P<<** <<< , - . . m t 1-201 q -q 7 9 0 [) U o c No C 1 7 6 8 6 4 2 9 pQ<> >> i otti y ; ' . - :fr (C)t >'- S&-HJK.-: * & o * y s ' ? > ? *; * i-?' ; .#&* -- * "? n >> r << >> . " *>> >> r<<<< .jmuaww w y> .- r nxfotKWw^ i * . ? . . -X . M *xm I /M * * ? ' H ' m cr i * ! - '? w . H O f v W ' o. .o w i ' y f c w '. /. ' - C o n g r e s s of the U n i t e d S t a t e s : fegss^*-* v - > ?ommftttr(R)i ^aifian SrTtlri WjWMW^ fl1 ^ ; . y W r ^ y ,, ;. '?.v-.^:o " - o n! *1 ^ / , . . y o. *. ' ;. ? vo o . - o -: -KWcvwoft^ ?o* : v;- , o.' 4 ' o*..v \ o J M m s l A * ^. v ?-? o > . - A w n . i ^ o. o ': oo . ?. ?. O MUi , ^ w u w * ^ >> OA) .: s >>.>>o?o*..... ' n0 * ; o j*1o M i r x r o. " 4^>>0UC*fW l^.tttw -; . fMrr<. . ^-iRepr^entatiV^i^^pian' .^-^'ad- a/^leastiqiy q f f i v e t o eight oV'vy^.'i ^ United . >.. p. ... Kingdom and Scotland; during the period 3une 30-July. 9, 1989. ;: ,o . " .^&vv';i The primary/purpose of the trip will; be meetings with Prime -: v ,? Minister Margaret Thatcher in tondon anti Charles H^iughey, Prime r :? ~ JUhister of Ireland, in Dublin. Vin additionv the -delogation ": r . o .. . V intends to visit UjS. military installations in Scotland. A ' . ; . . < detailed list of the participants, who will be accompanied by; - : . ; ' >. o ; ,? spouses' for the purposes of protocol, and key; staff ..will be . --. ; r;. ut^te^bd'.': ;a'.later date;^^;-'/^.'at: ' o : o f v > i? > 'o ' ' It\w.ouid be appreciated if .the Department of:State would'. ; o >'. o . ftirnieh such assistance as necessary to facilitate the success of ' this mission. lt.;is requested that local currencies for per diem oV and local transportation be made available in accordance with : .o;y :? ' ; Section 50r2(b) of the Mutual Security Act of 1954> a3 amended by ? o 'iw .' * I1 ' *%v ' ' .c * A r. + /- ^ t n # 'v ' n ! n i* o 1 r&a ' * o C " t f ' ' o j: ' '-k-k'Xi^you^ have-.: any.;que^iqnsy-^,; prcblems; regarding this V: ' ; ; ' ? ' j < q e t,oplease, contact De^rahBurns, o i . h . ? ' ' ' r B u s o; n t e ,Committee-, staf f a t ,o.. . With b e s t wisiheSr ^ am ;. CV--y -'-i j , [REVIEW AUTHORITY: -" '. ? ' . .. * : r Sincerely, yours, FASCELE Chairman .V V Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] r l > * & $ % $ $ $ 'K : .; ? >.._ . UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department o State Case Ne. F-2010-07900'D<<'No'C17S86429 Date: 09/04/2012' f 6890 G 8 ! - 2 I 7 5 Embassy of the United States of America 89083 Dublin? ?relan^ March 23, 1989 RELEASED IN FULL # o o The Honorable James Baker Secretary of State Department of State Washington, D.C. 20520 Dear Jim: O I am glad we finally had a few minutes together before your meeting with Prime Minister Haughey. I think the meeting went very well and know the Prime Minister and his entourage were very pleased by the reception they received in the State Department. I am convinced that the Irish tenure in the presidency of the EC next year can be useful to us and that they will be receptive to our efforts to keep the march toward 1992 on the right track. V It was great to see you in command of the State Department. CD ^T CM 05 Very best wishes. C M Margaret M Ambassador [REVIEW AUTHORITY: ckler Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686428 Date: 09/04/2012 8907371 #974024 ' 89 DIST; S/S S/S-S S/S-S(C) ?MB A PR RELEASED IN FULL -7 ftlO : 1 4 THE WHITE HO I S E WASHINGTON RF: rw April 5, 1989 Dear Mr. Prime Minister: I was delighted to greet you and your colleagues during your visit to the White House on St. Patrick' s Day. I ' always a genuine pleasure to welcome ts friends on this happy occasion. I valued our meeting on substantive issues affecting the welfare of our two countries, and I look forward to continuing our close working relationship. Thank you very much for the magnificent Waterford crystal bowl f l e with shamrocks. I'm truly grateful ild for this warm gesture of Irish-American goodwill. Barbara asks that I convey her special thanks for the beautiful Irish linens. She deeply appreciates your kind gesture. With our best wishes, Sincerely, S/S-l M ! CRr' APR p ,9 6 3 . ~ His Excellency Charles Haughey Prime Minister of Ireland Dublin ISCANNED APR |REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer 7 lr on L -V UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686417 Date: 09/04/2012 mm Ln i t e d St a t e s De p a r t m e n t o f St at e (fiishington, D.C. SECRETARY JAMES A. BA: (RELEASED IN FULL EVENT: DATE: TIME: LOCATION: 9:25 a.m. 20520 ir""to i iuW r1 W 1 Bilateral with Irish Prime Minister Charles Haughey Thursday, March 16, 1989 9:25 a.m. - 10:05 a.m. James Madison Room, Department of State SECRETARY BAKER, accompanied by Ambassador Heckler, proceeds to Diplomatic Entrance via private elevator. O Met in lobby by: O Roz Ridgway O Ambassador Joseph Reed o 9:30 a.m. rj s 9:30 a.m. O SECRETARY BAKER, accompanied by Ambassador Reed, proceeds to curb to greet Prime . Minister Haughey. w ^ CM prime Minister Haughey arrives Department of State, Diplomatic Entrance. OPEN PRESS COVERAGE | NOTE j | Mr. Haughey prefers to be addressed as Taoiseach (TEE-shuk), the Gaellic salutation. I ! _________________________________________ SECRETARY BAKER, accompanied' by Prime Minister Haughey, proceeds to 8th floor via private elevator. rpp e- |REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer) 2 8883 U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686412 Date PRIHE MINISTER HAUGHEY BILATERAL ELEVATOR MANIFEST SECRETARY BAKER Prime Minister Haughey Ambassador Reed Karen-Groomes DS (1) USSS (1) ALL OTHERS WILL BE ESCORTED BY PROTOCOL OFFICER TO 8TH FLOOR VIA SEPARATE ELEVATOR. SECRETARY BAKER, accompanied by Prime Minister Haughey, arrives 8 th Floor and proceeds to Benjamin Franklin Room for Photo Opportunity. POOL PHOTO COVERAGE SECRETARY BAKER, accompanied by Prime Minister Haughey, proceeds to James MAdison Room for Bilateral. LZ S SECRETARY BAKER Bob Kimmitt Bob Zoellick Roz Ridgway Margaret Tutwiler Dennis Ross Ambassador Heckler Kenneth Longmyer (Notetaker) 30I Prime Minister Haughey Ambassador MacKernan Mr. o hUigginn Mr. Dorr Mr. Burke UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686412 Date: 09/04/2012 Entrance via private elevator. ELEVATOR MANIFEST Same as on arrival. 10:05 a.m. SECRETARY BAKER bids farewell to Prime Minister Haughey at limo. OPEN PRESS COVERAGE UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No, F-2010-07900 Doc Noi C17686430 Dgje. 0 9 /0 4 /^ 1 2 Qfitwimt ro<*joo>>r Mf , ;v. - ;v-Xewi<><<6 <>e primary purpose of the trip will; be meetings.,. ________ _______ .. wi 1 . be, mee tings. .. ^ *?ith:Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in London and \ > London; . . .. ^ . / ; 1 J. Hr- - .X :*iy spouse, Judy Hoyer, will aocompemy m e : b r reasons of fi. protocol. . o'; ~ v: v V -r . ' - . { f ' * ; , . : v .^.^o^.<^snmiss^on;.request the use of Congressional ^ . ^ ' :^s 'travel "fundspursuant to Public. Law: 5 - 3 8 4 which was 9 k ?/ o to/host. official events and.other miscellaneous^ ? ' ' request \is mads . acbprdande wiibh' * m p; . "s ^f%.v f-;'5(Bc^dfn^S02:(bJ:. of'the: Mutuai:''Seourity- Act as- / ? k ' ? ' 'aoendsdv / o ' * , > . '? o . v ' ?? o' .? & i? Sincere V - ;*? -VviVC*' v ^vv-v*' ' - '' * ' 'v} ? !' [REVIEW AUTHORITY: . . '.paaSHW. \ - ' c? "c ; . Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer]: WH - ^3* *" * >> '* ?^ ' ? ' * ** * o ' * . *o ' ' . ; '" * ? ' o . ' oo . v f U r?V? o jj . o *> ov . o. ' . ' *' * >vV '.' * L o' ' > ^* o ' ,*1.o \ -. o* .. ' *. * ' * ? ' * .\ >> * UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686430 Date: 09/04/2012 o. V v. UNCLAb^ ? D - U . ^ D e g a r t m e n ^ ^ No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686431 D |e ^0 9 /0 4 /2 0 1 2 .o ? ? ^ '?' ,, ' - o -- <<5^8;>K6i3S&a>&#yi2(R)S$ v with . . Fascell.t . CODEL __ . o ireliuid a c Great- Britain.,\'Jvme,3CKJuly 1 , 1989. nl 2. - ; ~ .o' -- ' -:V oo i; o : II#'7' = f:C c'&J, 'i .' .: ^ PWCPW?' the trip I f to m e a t - . w i t h - P r i m e . o # f . ^'v V'j> , . ' oMargaret Ihatichar-in London and the Prime Minister of Ireland in C '\ g i ' \ Eublin. , " > / , v . , -N ' , , _____ . i t is requested that th* * ' -- ----- -- ^ . . . . . ana . ir e 1954 ??:> acaordance with Section 502(b)' ?; ll-Jt , Mr. Peterson . o carrier; ;lji\''*" -'o'; ;; o.. V' .\ * > . V y s>* , . vmV?> * ' < >, * / you-for your- assistance, and best wishes. v f'o ' V ;,- ;v . W ; " s. v.; : 5<<^v- -:- oV;v " Vt ei.;' v'. * . V S*^*"; - " vV :/ ' v;;- ;; oo' ? ' o. o' v'. ^ \ . y ;.l" ' . f t rC ooo ? .' '. v.x;->V .v" ' *" : ? ' v o' o/>>'* *>. ^ ; V o .-> - * v . v ' . ,o V.::" W 1PEVIEW AUTHORITY: o v * '.?>> ; '' f* ? .?>>oo ?>o*' * v . % * . . . Sincerely/ //' . Ci/tMtA o>o -:V\.: o -:? ' '-> . '? . !V T -Fionas S; PaiEUR3r T e .Speaker h; fj / o > vy cc:.Ron. DraTn&ndersOn, Clerk, U.S. House of Repji^serttatiyess. m * & C W M f 9$ " ' * ' , ? * i /4 i & S ' Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer] o ; ., UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Caae No. F-2010-07900 Dec No. C17686431 Data: 09/04/2012 U N U L A a a i M ^ L j j ^ a j J e p a r t m e n t or s ta te .............. 4 i a u a te - u a / u 4/ ^ u i / ! w m m x m s y s s a * c a se n o . h - /U T U - u /y u u u o c no. u i/b O b 1 ^ bUi i f i i j ut .Il nL RELEASED IN FULL r~'3 .T? EA C K(JROv NJ5 * . ? The Anglo-Ir;sa agreement -- In 19351 ?ciTe Minister Thatcher and Prixs MiniBter FifczGetald signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement which gave Ireland the right to consult in the affairs of Northern Iceland. -- The Dnionisfc (Protestant) majority in Sorthern Ireland strongly opposed the Agreement. -- Despite continued Unionist opposition, Ireland and the UK are using the Agreement to address tne social, eq^ftppics political, and security meccis s? rMxetftefn rtirlsm.w . r >> Tie TntecngttQr a .l for Ireland <>ployraenfe. -- 5oa<< A<<.et -tf i.r rfy-'Vj U * 'pSf'&uti* f.sit eapioyrcent in jisjrthejro Irwlapd Jsy e r* i* o (R) fc >> federal, state, and local i*ws to ?oits companie* setivt j . Ho .t h u i u XselanS to suppnrt r the NacBride Principles, a set ot guidelines requiting *>>! fires to practice equal eh opportunity and affirmative action. -- . Like all jsajor political parties in Northern Iceland, {the pro-terrorist Sinn Fein is the exception} the u,3. has apposed American laws to , coispsi ficiss to subscribe to the MacBride Principles. 0 Ufi Peacekeeping -- Ireland is a aajor contributor to UN peacekeeping operations, especially in behanon where 2 6 Irish servicemen have lost their lives. . -- The failure of Bi&ny US ae>>bers, including the United States, to pay their full peacekeeping assessments has forced Ireland and other troop contributors to assume part of the financial burden of keeping thei? troops in the field. -- In September, Secretary Shultz told Irish Foreign Minister benihan that the U.S. would try to persuade Congress to budget full funding for peacekeeping in 1390 o He also said that *e hoped to work out a plan for paying arrears, probably over a five year period. -- we expect the U.S. assessment for UHIFIL to- be approximately $44 trillion for FY 90. But we have requested only $30.1 million from Congress. -- Haughey hopes to heat from the President that the U.S. will meet its assessment. SIFTED UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686419 Date: 09/04/2012 r {'??' Ana 1 - i ?' ? ? -- "o:<< l.<, :<< -- Wt a c ? r *o_o o ana tn# pro o icra r r't "S v>rtc c l Ir- t.inu .i* - o ? ' o- c>eet Wit.n you and *ihh the Nationalist leadesj o i Northern Ireland to find solutions to Northern I reland'e problems? -- what are the- keys to >>ii-'.mating sectarian o -i. r .-f Us*_!o -. ?; toi . . .j- in . ?. ati-vnal 7 - . _ cr j r c iind -j f - " f m * ,,S , j* * o? v * - . t o ' v oV **^ * ? ^ c * ; V *? > , ** we are nappy tr.at we wer* -.pie to r . e . os* re* ccassitcent to tr*e f - i r . a. -- we *rerp pleased chat t ' c HS decided to ..contr icute to t Find snd hope that others will s ls o -- ? believe tnst sccoe:;-; i > cresting jobs ana r dessonstratiny that econo* _c development promotes reconciliation will cteate additional international support: f t : tne Fund. fair X .-rpioyfter, -. -- the iJ.s, supports ?eir e-ploy .-sent a n ' equality oi opportunity in i<> I__ .1:o" f o' LI Peacekeeping - - The U .S . d e ep ly c o n trib u tio n (R) to a p r.re c ia te s UN Ir e la n d 's p e ace kee p in g , e s p e c ia lly in Lebanon. -- Because of budgetary considerations, we have been unable to pay c > full UNXFIL obligations, r we hope to pay our assessments in the future. Terror law -- - - We are distressed by sectarian violence and other ?oms of terrorism. As you o f in te r n a tio n a l fo re ig n Know, the U .S . has macifs t e i f o r iss-. <* t?><< m ajo r su p p re s s io n g o al o f our p o lit y . Co n s e q u e n t l y , *v h a v <<* u t g e d tsrrcritp everywhere. A.T? r i c 4. !\ ! o r- jett * He applaud Ireland's efforts against terrorism and urge you to continue your efforts to rid the world of this plague. sfsgti sf-st ........ UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900* Doc No. C17686419 Date: 0 9/0 4/2 0 lT UNC LASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C 17686435 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL RELEASED IN FULL TALKING BILATERAL POINTS FOR CHARLES HAUGHEY ISSUES -- We very Ma r c h . -- The P r e s i d e n t a p p r e c i a te s your letter of your c o n v e r s a t i o n w i t h General Gorbachev. -- I un d e r st a n d that Foreign M i n i s t e r L e n i h a n has r e t u r n e d to the h o sp ita l. P l e a s e tell him th at I wish him an e a r l y and c o m p l e t e r e c o v e r y . INTERNATIONAL much enjoyed your visit to the U.S. in informing Secretary hi" ISSUES -- o -- We s h a r e I r e l a n d ' s c o m m i t m e n t to tr ue d e m o c r a c y N i c a r a g u a a n d w a n t to m a k e the E s q u i p u l a s / E l Salvador p e ac e pro c e ss work. --- o The our vie b e l i e v e t h a t w i t h c o n c e r t e d i n t e r n a t i o n a l t h i s c a n a c t u a l l y c o n e to p a s s . -- Ire la nd wil l hav e o p p o r t u n i t i e s to f u r t h e r the pe a c e p r o c e s s in C e n t r a l A m e r i c a as I r e l a n d m o v e s i n t o the EC l e a d e r s h i p . n -- v P re sident asked shared concerns that I c a l L yo u t o d a y in C e n t r a l Arcerica. to discuss in action T w o e v e n t s w i l l c o l o r the p r o s p e c t s tor fair e l e c t o r a l a r r a n g e m e n t s in N i c a r a g u a . President O r t e g a ' s t r i p to E u r o p e , i n c l u d i n g D u M in, and the S w e d i s h p l e d g i n g c o n f e r e n c e for N i c a r a g u a c a l l e d for raid-May. -- P r e s i d e n t O r t e g a w a n t s to o b t a i n n e w E u r o p e a n aid and d e m o n s t r a t e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a p p r o v a l of his election reforms. Ho w ev e r, in recent wc-eks th<' i nt e rn a l o p p o s i t i o n m N i c a r a g u a has o f f e r e d a r e a s o n a b l e s e r i e s of p r o p o s a l s to P r e s i d e n t O r t e g a , iie, h o w e v e r , has r e f u s e d to n e g o t i a t e w i t h their, and put f o r t h his o w n e l e c t o r a l iaw r e f o r m p r o p o s a l s w hi c h w o u l d leav e the S a r.Jir.i **o> g o v e r n m e n t in oo: c o n t r o l of the e l e c t o r a l cocrti ssior. and the e n t i r e election process. -- Th e K i c a r a g u a n s o l i d a r i t y and de mo e r ac i e s . oc r a t ic o p p o s i t i o n h o p e s for u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the E u r o p e a n the p n u n n c M T !A ! [REVIEW AUTHORITY: Robert Homme, Senior Reviewer UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686435 Date: 09/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL m n 093-160? C o n s i d e r a t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l E u r o p e a n a i d to N i c a r a g u a at t h i s t i m e w o u l d t e l l the S a n d i n i s t a s t h a t t h e y m i g h t s u c c e e d in a v o i d i n g t h e s e r i o u s st eps to w h i c h they have c o m m i t t e d themselves. X h o p e y o u w i l l r a i s e t h e s e m a t t e r s in y o u r d i s c u s s i o n s with other E u r o p e a n leaders and with President Ortega. directly In a d d i t i o n , s i n c e O r t e g a h a s t h u s f a r r e f u s e d t o h e e d p r i v a t e a d v i c e , w e t h i n k it i m p o r t a n t t h a t y o u a n d o t h e r k e y E u r o p e a n l e a d e r s m a k e it c l e a r p u b l i c l y that Ortega has not made s a t i sf a c t o r y e l e c t i o n reforms, but must neg o t i at e such reforms d i r e c t l y w i t h the i n te rn a l o p p o s i t i o n . Election refo r m s are critical. Our new p o l i c y d e s i g n e d to end c o n f r o n t a t i o n and p r o v i d e a democratic opening. W e nee d yo ur he l p to keep p o s it i v e p o s s i b i l i t i e s alive. is W e s t r o n g l y o p p o s e ? L O r . e n b e r s h i p in U N a g e n c i e s . W e a s k t h a t t h e I r i s h d e l e g a t i o n be i n s t r u c t e d to support any effo rt to p o s t p on e action on such m e m b e r s h i p s h o u l d the i ss u e a r i s e at the W o r l d H e a l t h Asse r a b l y in M a y . V CONFIDENTIAL UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2010-07900 Doc No. C17686435 Date: 09/04/2012 lauam