? SIENA COLLEGE New York City Poll July 9-15, 2013 Registered voter N = 1,010 Registered Democratic voter N = 610 Registered Republican voter N = 125 An asterisk indicates registered respondents. Trends are based on New York Times Polls except: New York Times/CBS News Polls: Oct. 1998 - Oct. 2000, Sept. 2006, Aug. 2011 and New York Times/Cornell University/NY1: Jun. 2009. What borough in New York City do you NOW live in? 7/9-15/13* Bronx 16 Brooklyn 31 Manhattan 23 Queens 24 Staten Island 6 Refused - Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the election district where you now live, or aren't you? 7/9-15/13 Yes 66 No 33 DK/NA - 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? 6/4-9/02 8/25-29/02 10/12-16/02 1/11-15/03 6/6-11/03 7/13-27/03 8/31-9/4/03 4/16-21/04 8/20-25/04 2/4-13/05 6/21-26/05 8/22-28/05 10/21-26/05 8/23-27/06 6/6-11/08 5/29-6/3/09 8/27-31/10 10/26-28/10 8/9-15/11 8/10-15/12 7/9-15/13* Approve 48 47 47 31 24 25 32 38 40 43 50 59 67 63 67 60 59 54 45 48 48 Disapprove 26 31 41 53 65 67 57 46 49 45 35 31 23 22 28 34 29 30 43 39 42 DK/NA 26 22 12 16 11 8 11 16 11 12 15 11 10 15 5 6 12 16 13 13 10 2. Do you feel things in New York City are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? 10/21-26/05 6/6-11/08 8/9-15/11 7/9-15/13* Right direction 63 37 36 51 Wrong track 28 56 54 41 DK/NA 8 7 10 8 2 QUESTIONS 3-18 WERE ROTATED 3. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Michael Bloomberg yet to have an opinion? 8/5-12/01* 10/6-9/01* 10/27-11/1/01* 6/4-9/02* 1/11-15/03 8/31-9/4/03 4/16-21/04 8/20-25/04 2/4-13/05* 6/21-26/05* 8/22-28/05* 10/21-26/05* 6/6-11/08* 5/29-6/3/09 7/9-15/13* Favorable 26 26 37 39 26 21 28 28 41 48 50 52 56 48 44 Not Favorable 16 16 15 13 30 39 33 34 34 33 28 23 23 26 39 Undecided 26 27 30 18 28 28 23 24 22 17 19 21 13 19 15 Haven't heard enough 31 29 17 30 15 9 13 13 2 1 2 2 7 5 2 Refused 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Andrew Cuomo yet to have an opinion? 9/24-27/06* 6/6-11/08* 5/29-6/3/09* 10/10-15/10* 7/9-15/13* Favorable 36 35 58 40 56 Not Favorable 19 11 6 12 14 Undecided 32 27 17 31 19 Haven't heard enough 13 26 19 17 11 Refused 1 1 - 5. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion? 6/6-11/08* 7/9-15/13* Favorable 52 69 Not Favorable 19 18 Undecided 21 11 Haven't heard enough 8 1 Refused 1 6. Is your opinion of Sal Albanese favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Sal Albanese yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 6 Not Favorable 8 Undecided 12 Haven't heard enough 73 Refused - 7. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill de Blasio yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 23 Not Favorable 10 Undecided 22 Haven't heard enough 45 Refused 1 3 8. Is your opinion of John Liu favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Liu yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 20 Not Favorable 18 Undecided 19 Haven't heard enough 43 Refused - 9. Is your opinion of Christine Quinn favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Christine Quinn yet to have an opinion? 6/6-11/08* 7/9-15/13* Favorable 13 26 Not Favorable 12 26 Undecided 18 22 Haven't heard enough 56 25 Refused 1 - 10. Is your opinion of Erick Salgado favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Erick Salgado yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 3 Not Favorable 5 Undecided 11 Haven't heard enough 81 Refused - 11. Is your opinion of Bill Thompson favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Thompson yet to have an opinion? 6/6-11/08* 5/29-6/3/09* 7/9-15/13* Favorable 13 13 23 Not Favorable 6 2 10 Undecided 16 13 21 Haven't heard enough 64 71 45 Refused 1 1 - 12. Is your opinion of Anthony Weiner favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Anthony Weiner yet to have an opinion? 4/16-21/04 2/4-13/05* 6/21-26/05* 8/22-28/05* 6/6-11/08* 8/10-15/12 7/9-15/13* Favorable 7 9 9 11 17 15 22 Not Favorable 4 4 8 10 9 27 37 Undecided 14 16 19 23 21 19 25 Haven't heard enough 73 69 63 54 52 36 15 Refused 2 1 1 1 1 4 - 13. Is your opinion of John Catsimatidis favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Catsimatidis yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 8 Not Favorable 12 Undecided 12 Haven't heard enough 68 Refused 1 4 14. Is your opinion of Joseph Lhota favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Joseph Lhota yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 8 Not Favorable 13 Undecided 16 Haven't heard enough 63 Refused - 15. Is your opinion of George McDonald favorable, not favorable, undecided, haven't you heard enough about George McDonald yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 5 Not Favorable 6 Undecided 12 Haven't heard enough 77 or Refused - 16. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Adolfo Carrion yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 6 Not Favorable 8 Undecided 11 Haven't heard enough 75 Refused - 17. Is your opinion of Eliot Spitzer favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Eliot Spitzer yet to have an opinion? 10/21-25/98* 9/24-27/06* 5/29-6/3/09* 7/9-15/13* Favorable 13 48 25 28 Not Favorable 6 7 41 35 Undecided 32 27 26 24 Haven't heard enough 48 18 7 12 Refused 1 - 18. Is your opinion of Scott Stringer favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Scott Stringer yet to have an opinion? 7/9-15/13* Favorable 14 Not Favorable 7 Undecided 18 Haven't heard enough 61 Refused - 5 19. How much attention have you been able to pay to this year's campaign for mayor of New York City - a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? 4/27-5/3/85* 6/11-17/89* 5/10-14/93* 9/29-10/3/93* 10/20-24/93* 3/1-6/97* 10/13-18/97* 8/5-12/01* 10/6-9/01* 10/27-11/1/01* 2/4-13/05* 6/21-26/05* 8/22-25/05* 10/21-26/05* 7/9-15/13* A lot 18 25 18 41 41 14 30 19 25 26 16 18 17 26 13 Some 30 39 41 41 42 35 44 39 38 41 30 38 41 42 42 Not much 50 29 31 15 13 32 19 31 28 26 36 29 31 24 30 No attention 7 10 3 2 17 5 11 9 5 19 14 10 7 14 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 - Are you registered in a specific party? IF YES, ASK: What party are you registered in -- the Republican party, the Democratic party, the Conservative party, the Working Families party, Independence party, Green party, or something else? Republican Democratic Conservative Working families Independence party Green party Other Not registered in a party DK/NA 7/9-15/13* 11 57 1 1 6 1 19 4 20. How likely is it that you will vote in the Democratic primary for Mayor on September 10th -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the Democratic primary? 7/9-15/13* DEM Definitely vote 62 Probably vote 28 Probably not vote 7 Definitely not vote 2 DK/NA 1 6 21. If the Democratic primary were being held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: Sal Albanese, Bill de Blasio, John Liu, Christine Quinn, Erick Salgado, Bill Thompson or Anthony Weiner? CANDIDATE NAMES AND ANSWER CODES ROTATED Albanese de Blasio Liu Quinn Salgado Thompson Weiner Other (vol.) Won't vote (vol.) DK/NA 7/9-15/13* DEM 2 11 7 27 1 11 18 2 22 22. How likely would you say you are to vote for (CANDIDATE NAME)? Are you: 1. Absolutely certain -- there's no chance I will change my mind; 2. Fairly certain -it is unlikely I will change my mind; 3. Not very certain -- I very well may change my mind or 4. Not certain at all -- there a good chance I will change my mind. 7/9-15/13* DEM Quinn voters Weiner voters Absolutely certain 30 21 41 Fairly certain 41 52 33 Not very certain 21 21 18 Not certain at all 7 6 9 DK/NA 1 1 23. How likely is it that you will vote in the Republican primary for Mayor on September 10th -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the Republican primary? 7/9-15/13* REP Definitely vote 51 Probably vote 32 Probably not vote 10 Definitely not vote 1 DK/NA 6 24. If the Republican primary were being held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: John Catsimatidis, Joseph Lhota or George McDonald? CANDIDATE NAMES AND ANSWER CODES ROTATED Catsidmatidis Lhota McDonald Other (vol.) Won't vote (vol.) DK/NA 7/9-15/13* REP 21 32 3 1 6 36 25. How likely would you say you are to vote for (CANDIDATE NAME)? Are you: 1. Absolutely certain -- there's no chance I will change my mind; 2. Fairly certain -it is unlikely I will change my mind; 3. Not very certain -- I very well may change my mind or 4. Not certain at all -- there a good chance I will change my mind. 7/9-15/13* REP Absolutely certain 22 Fairly certain 35 Not very certain 22 Not certain at all 17 DK/NA 4 7 26. How satisfied are you with the candidates now running for Mayor - very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied or not at all satisfied? Very 10 3 13 7/9-15/13* REP DEM Somewhat 43 34 46 Not too 27 33 24 Not at all 11 18 9 DK/NA 9 12 7 27. If you had to choose ONE, which is MOST important in deciding who you will support for mayor of New York City this year: 1. The candidate understands the needs and problems of people like you; 2. The candidate has the right temperament; 3. The candidate has successfully managed a large organization in the past OR 4. The candidate knows how to attract and keep businesses in New York City? 7/9-15/13* Understands needs and problems 61 Has managed large organization 11 Right temperament 6 Knows how to attract and keep business 15 DK/NA 7 28. Of all the problems facing New York City, which one do you most want the next Mayor to concentrate on first? 10/2711/1/01* 22 6/49/021 17 1/1115/031 10 6/611/031 5 4/1621/041 9 12/412/05* 9 6/2126/05* 6 8/2228/05 8 7/915/13* 9 Education 19 34 18 16 22 22 20 27 17 Jobs/Unemployment 9 6 16 19 11 12 9 7 18 Poverty,homelessness 2 6 4 4 3 4 2 Infrastructure 2 3 5 6 3 Police 2 1 2 - - 1 City economy 11 5 Crime 5 4 4 9 7 3 5 5 4 4 Economic Issues 3 4 1 1 6 1 10 Budget 3 5 - 1 1 - 1 Taxes 3 9 3 5 3 3 2 2 2 Housing 3 Security Rebuild the city 1 2 2 1 10 13 12 8 2 2 - 2 1 3 4 6 5 Terrorism 1 - 1 13 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 Other 8 13 13 14 16 13 12 17 9 DK/NA 8 10 8 10 11 8 8 11 6 Transit fare 1 Question read: " ...which one do you want Mayor Bloomberg to concentrate on first?" 8 29. How would you rate the condition of the New York City economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? 9/29-10/3/93 3/1-6/97 Very good 2 Fairly good 30 Fairly bad 40 Very bad 25 DK/NA 3 6 53 25 12 4 8/5-12/01* 12 66 13 5 4 10/6-9/01* 5 55 27 8 5 10/27-11/1/01* 4 54 30 9 2 6/4-9/02 4 46 34 12 4 1/11-15/03 2 28 42 24 3 6/4-11/03 2 22 43 30 3 4/16-21/04 2 43 33 19 3 8/20-25/04 3 44 32 19 2 2/4-13/05 3 51 27 17 2 6/21-26/05 4 51 28 14 2 8/22-28/05 4 55 25 13 4 5/29-6/3/09 2 34 38 25 1 8/9-15/11 2 27 39 29 2 8/10-15/12 7/9-15/13* 2 5 42 59 33 24 20 11 2 2 30. Compared to a year ago, do you think New York City is more safe from crime today, less safe today, or about as safe today as it was a year ago? 1/11-15/03 7/9-15/13* More 12 20 Less 25 19 Same 61 60 DK/NA 3 1 31. Are you generally satisfied with the quality of public schools in New York City, or are you not satisfied? Satisfied Not satisfied DK/NA 5/10-14/93 14 72 13 9/29-10/3/93 13 73 14 6/12-15/94 20 71 12 3/1-6/97 21 67 13 10/13-18/97* 13 76 11 8/5-12/01* 15 73 12 10/27-11/01* 22 61 17 6/4-9/02 20 68 12 1/11-15/03 20 66 14 4/16-21/04 16 72 12 2/4-13/05* 16 68 15 6/21-26/05 24 64 12 8/22-24/05 28 59 13 8/9-15/11 7/9-15/13* 29 28 57 58 15 14 9 32. How willing would you be to pay higher taxes in order to improve public education in New York City - very willing, somewhat willing, not very willing or not at all willing? 7/9-15/13* Very 16 Somewhat 39 Not very 15 Not at all 27 DK/NA 3 33. How serious a problem do you think affordable housing is in New York City - very serious, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not serious at all? 7/9-15/13* Very 68 Somewhat 21 Not very 5 Not at all 3 DK/NA 3 34. If Michael Bloomberg supported a candidate for Mayor of New York City, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or wouldn't it affect how you vote? 7/9-15/13* More likely 16 Less likely 28 Wouldn't affect 53 DK/NA 3 35. Which of these statements comes closer to your own views? 1. After twelve years of Michael Bloomberg, we need to elect a mayor who can move the city in a new direction. OR 2. We need to keep moving in the same direction Michael Bloomberg has been taking the city. ANSWER CHOICES ROTATED 7/9-15/13* Move in new direction 65 Keep moving in same direction as Bloomberg 30 DK/NA 5 36. Would you prefer that the next Mayor of New York City keep Ray Kelly in his role as police commissioner, or would you prefer that the next mayor select a new police commissioner? 7/9-15/13* Keep Ray Kelly as commissioner 50 Select new commissioner 38 DK/NA 11 10 37. Looking back over the years, many New York City Mayors have been larger than life personalities that came to embody the essence of the city. Do you think any of the current candidates for mayor could become that type of Mayor? Yes 43 7/9-15/13* No 43 DK/NA 14 38. (AMONG RESPONDENTS WHO SAID YES IN Q37) Who is that? 7/9-15/13* 1 2 4 5 3 5 2 25 1 7 27 19 Albanese Carrion Catsidmatidis de Blasio Lhota Liu McDonald Quinn Salgado Thompson Weiner DK/NA 39. As you may know, Michael Bloomberg recently proposed a plan to spend nearly $20 billion to create levees, flood gates and other measures to protect New York City in the event of another devastating storm such as Sandy last year. Do you favor or oppose a plan to spend nearly $20 billion to try to safeguard the City against major storms? 7/9-15/13* 40. As you detains and weapon. Do harassed OR safer? 7/9-15/13* Favor 65 Oppose 27 DK/NA 8 may know, stop and frisk is a police procedure where a police officer searches an individual to determine if the person is carrying a concealed you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City Excessive 50 Acceptable 45 DK/NA 5 11 41. As you may know, when Eliot Spitzer was the Governor of New York, he admitted to patronizing prostitutes and he resigned. He is now planning to run for Comptroller of New York City. Do you think he deserves another chance at elected office despite his past behavior, or does he not deserve another chance because of his past behavior? QUESTIONS 41 AND 42 ROTATED 7/9-15/13* Deserves another chance 54 Does not 42 DK/NA 3 42. As you may know, when Anthony Weiner was a member of Congress, he admitted to sending sexual images to women over the internet and he resigned. He is now running for Mayor of New York City. Do you think he deserves another chance at elected office despite his past behavior, or does he not deserve another chance because of his past behavior? QUESTIONS 41 AND 42 ROTATED 7/9-15/13* Deserves another chance 59 Does not 38 DK/NA 3 No 89 DK/NA 3 Are you gay, lesbian or bisexual? 7/9-15/13* Yes 8 Are you the parent or guardian of a child under 18 that lives with you? 7/9-15/13* Yes 27 No 72 DK/NA 1 12 Are your children currently enrolled parochial school? AMONG PARENTS in public school, or private school, or 7/9-15/13* 52 23 6 3 3 13 1 - Public Private Parochial Public & other Charter school Not school age Other (Vol.) DK/NA Are you or any other member of your household - that is, any other adult living in your home or apartment - a member of a labor union? IF YES, ASK: Is that person you or someone else? Yes, someone Yes, respondent or else in respondent & someone else household No, no one DK/NA 15 10 72 3 7/9-15/13* How much will your vote for Mayor be based on your union's endorsement of a candidate - a lot, some, not much or not at all? AMONG UNION MEMBERS 7/9-15/13* A lot 15 Some 27 Not much 18 Not at all 38 DK/NA 2 Generally speaking, do you usually consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, a Liberal, a Conservative, or what? 7/9-15/13* Republican 10 Democrat 50 Independent 18 Liberal 10 Conservative 5 Other 1 DK/NA 7 How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally do you think of yourself as liberal, moderate, or conservative? 7/9-15/13* Liberal 32 Moderate 36 Conservative 25 DK/NA 7 What is your religious preference today? 7/9-15/13* Catholic 28 Jewish 11 Protestant 24 Muslim 4 Other 5 No affiliation 21 DK/NA 6 What was the last grade in school you completed? 7/9-15/13* Grade school 3 High school 20 Some college or trade school 26 Bachelor's degree 25 Grad or professional degree 24 Refused 2 In what year were you born? 7/9-15/13* 18-29 26 30-44 24 45-64 25 65+ 19 Refused 6 13 Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background? Yes 21 7/9-15/13* No 75 DK/NA 4 Are you white, black, Asian, or some other race? 7/9-15/13* White 45 Black 27 Asian 10 Other 9 Refused 9 Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes? 7/9-15/13* 7/9-15/13* Under 15,000 11 $15,000 -29,999 12 Male 46 $30,00049,999 13 $50,000 -74,999 15 $75,00099,999 10 $100249,999 17 $250K or more 5 Refused 17 Female 54 14