8' Ti?' MANITOBA 2019 ELECTION NEWS SURVEY RESULTS AUGUST 2019 KEY FINDINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION: • With just a few days left until Manitobans elect a new provincial government, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg finds the incumbent Progressive Conservatives remain the most popular party in the province, although the PC lead has decreased slightly compared to surveys conducted prior to the start of the campaign. • Overall, four-in-ten decided and leaning voters plan to cast ballots for a PC candidate in their riding (40%, down from 42% in June 2019). Three-in-ten would vote for the NDP (29%, +3% vs. June), with slightly fewer than two-in-ten preferring the Liberals (18%, +2%) and one-in-ten opting to vote for the Greens (10%, -4%). Twelve per cent of respondents are undecided. • Within Winnipeg, the race remains tight, with one-third of decided and leaning voters planning to cast a ballot for the PCs (33%, +1 vs. June) or the NDP (32%, no change). One-in-five prefer the Liberals (21%, +2%), while slightly more than one-in-ten plan to vote for a Green candidate (12%, -2%). Outside Winnipeg, fully one-half of decided voters (51%) intend to vote for the PCs. Mary Agnes Welch Principal PROBE RESEARCH INC. 211 – 10 Fort St. Winnipeg, MB R3C 1C4 (204) 470-8862 maryagnes@probe-research.com www.probe-research.com • • Within Winnipeg, the PCs and NDP are statistically tied in northwest and northeast sections of the city, with the PCs enjoying a statistically significant advantage (41% vs. 29%) in the southeast. The PCs and Liberals are tied in southwest Winnipeg (32% each), while the NDP is the most popular party in the Core, followed by the Greens (42% vs. 23% respectively). The PCs continue to benefit from a significant advantage among male voters and a slight edge among women. Older voters are more likely to back the PCs, while younger Manitobans are splitting their support across all four major parties. KEY FINDINGS (continued) FOR MORE INFORMATION: • The PCs appear to benefit from the fact that a significant number of voters who cast ballots for the NDP when it was in power remain dispersed. Only one-quarter of these “lapsed” NDP voters say they plan to vote NDP this time, with more than one-third preferring the PCs, one-in-five backing the Liberals and one-in-ten preferring the Greens. • An analysis of which party is voters’ “second choice” and the firmness of voting intentions shows that while PC voters are the most committed, there is relatively little room for the party to grow its support further. Fully eight-in-ten decided and leaning PC voters are very certain they will cast ballots for this party, compared to two-thirds of NDP supporters, slightly more than one-half of Liberal voters and fewer than one-half of Green voters. However, only six per cent of all voters say the PC party is their second choice, with Manitobans most likely to point to the Liberals and the Greens as their backup. Scott MacKay President PROBE RESEARCH INC. 211 – 10 Fort St. Winnipeg, MB R3C 1C4 (204) 926-6565 scott@probe-research.com • www.probe-research.com • Nearly half of NDP supporters say the Liberals are their second choice, while four-in-ten Liberal voters say the NDP is their backup. About one-quarter of supporters of each of these two parties select the Green Party as their second choice. An analysis of vote retention from the 2016 election shows the PCs and NDP have retained much of their 2016 support, with only one-half of those who backed the Liberals in the last provincial election remaining with the party this time around. METHODOLOGY ABOUT PROBE RESEARCH Probe Research is a leading public opinion and market research firm. Founded in 1994, Probe Research provides insights to Fortune 500 companies, provincial and federal government departments and agencies, municipal governments, member and professional associations and not-for-profit organizations. Vision: We create knowledge by helping citizens, consumers and stakeholders better understand one another and the world around them. Mission: We ask the questions and find the answers. We use both proven and emerging market research techniques to gather data and distill stories to reveal what truly matters. We help our clients use this knowledge to make smarter, better decisions. Learn more at: www.probe-research.com Between August 13th and 24th, 2019, Probe Research conducted an online survey of N=1,200 Manitoba adults on behalf of the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg. Respondents to the survey were recruited from Probe Research’s proprietary online panel, as well as a national online panel. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age, regional and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of Manitoba’s population based on 2016 Census data. The sample has also been weighted by voting behaviour based on the results of the 2016 provincial election. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software. Because an online panel is a sample of convenience, no statistical margin-of-error can be ascribed. For the purposes of comparison, a probabilistic sample of N=1,200 would have a margin of error of ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Media outlets reporting on these results must attribute them to the survey sponsors (the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg). MANITOBA 2019 ELECTION SURVEY RESULTS WW Vote Retrospective And Intentions AUGUST 2019 BE RESEARCH INC. Undecided: 12% PARTY SUPPORT IN MANITOBA DECIDED AND LEANING VOTERS QV1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?” Liberal, 18% NDP, 29% Green, 10% Manitoba Party, 2% PC, 40% Base: All respondents (N=1,200) Other, 1% Undecided: 12% PARTY SUPPORT IN MANITOBA PC NDP Liberal Green TRACKING 53% 48% 49% 46% QV1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?” 43% 44% 42% 44% 44% 42% 42% 42% 40% 40% 36% 30% 26% 27% 27% 26% 24% 24% 20% 18% 19% 20% 30% 30% 26% 25% 30% 28% 27% 26% 25% 20% 20% 19% 29% 21% 18% 16% 18% 16% 14% 14% 11% 8% Base: All respondents 5% April June 2016 2016 Election 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 5% Sept. 2016 7% 5% Dec. 2016 March 2017 June 2017 Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 March 2018 June 2018 Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 March 2019 June 2019 August 2019 Undecided: 11% PARTY SUPPORT IN WINNIPEG DECIDED AND LEANING VOTERS Liberal, 21% QV1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?” NDP, 32% Green, 12% PC, 33% Base: Winnipeg adults (N=756) Manitoba Party, 2% Other, 1% Undecided: 11% PARTY SUPPORT IN WINNIPEG PC NDP Liberal Green 43% 41% TRACKING 36% 34% QV1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?” 32% 31% 33% 31% 33% 31% 34% 34% 32% 32% 32% 32% 33% 32% 27% 27% 24% 36% 30% 29% 25% 35% 25% 25% 24% 23% 23% 21% 21% 19% 17% 14% 12% 9% 7% 8% 9% 8% 9% 12% 9% 8% 7% 5% Base: Winnipeg adults (N=756) 2016 Election Dec. 2016 March 2017 June 2017 Sept. 2017 Dec. 2017 March 2018 June 2018 Sept. 2018 Dec. 2018 March 2019 June 2019 Aug. 2019 PARTY SUPPORT ACROSS WINNIPEG REGIONS NORTHWEST (n=136) • PC: 35% • NDP: 32% • Liberal: 21% • Green: 10% NORTHEAST (n=145) • PC: 41% • NDP: 37% • Liberal: 13% • Green: 6% QV1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?” Base: Winnipeg adults (N=756) CORE (n=136) • NDP: 42% • Green: 23% • PC: 15% • Liberal: 14% SOUTHWEST (n=184) • PC: 32% • Liberal: 32% • NDP: 25% • Green: 9% SOUTHEAST (n=119) • PC: 41% • NDP: 29% • Liberal: 18% • Green: 12% PROVINCIAL PARTY SUPPORT IN MANITOBA ACROSS SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC SUB-GROUPS Gender Age Total Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+ (Unweighted) (1,200) (574) (622) (331) (382) (487) (Base) (1,200) (582) (614) (377) (456) (367) PC 40% 44% 36% 25% 42% 51% NDP 29% 26% 32% 29% 32% 26% Liberal 18% 16% 20% 24% 16% 15% Green 10% 10% 11% 16% 9% 7% Education Q1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?” Region HS or Less Some Post-Sec. Post-Sec. Grad Winnipeg Rest of Manitoba (Unweighted) (193) (250) (740) (756) (444) (Base) (208) (257) (715) (720) (480) PC 52% 41% 36% 33% 51% NDP 23% 23% 32% 32% 24% Liberal 12% 18% 19% 21% 14% Green 9% 15% 9% 12% 8% Income Indigenous <$50K $50K-$99K $100K+ Yes No Decided and leading voters. Valid responses only, DK/NS removed (Unweighted) (251) (415) (367) (142) (1006) (Base) (237) (406) (383) (148) (999) *Caution: Small base PC 40% 40% 37% 23% 42% NDP 25% 30% 32% 29% 30% Liberal 18% 17% 18% 22% 18% Green 14% 10% 9% 13% 10% ONLY ONEQUARTER OF LAPSED NDP VOTERS PLAN TO CAST A BALLOT FOR THE PARTY IN 2019 Lapsed NDP voters refers to those who voted for an NDP candidate in at least one of the 1999, 2003, 2007 or 2011 provincial elections – but who did not do so in 2016. Of these lapsed NDP voters, only one-quarter (27%) now plan to vote for an NDP candidate in 2019, with the largest share preferring the PCs. Liberal, 20% QV1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?” NDP, 27% Green, 9% Other, 3% PC, 35% Base: Lapsed NDP voters (n=225) Unsure, 6% SECOND CHOICE SUPPORT PC NDP Liberal Total (N=1,200) 6% 14% QV4. “If, for some reason, you decided you could not support the party of your choice, which party would be your second choice?” PC supporters (n=422) Green 21% Other 19% Unsure 6% 8% 11% 13% 11% 35% 57% 1% NDP supporters (n=308) 7% 46% 28% 18% 2% Liberal supporters (n=190) 10% 38% 27% 23% Base: All respondents (N=1,200) Green supporters (n=110) 13% 31% 28% 6% 22% FIRMNESS OF VOTE INTENTION % of those indicating they are “very likely” to vote for this party 80% Q5. “How likely is it that you will actually vote for the party of your choice in the upcoming provincial election?” 67% 67% 55% 45% Base: All respondents (N=1,200) Total PC NDP Liberal Green PARTY VOTE RETENTION: 2016 VOTE VS. 2019 VOTING INTENTION Base: All respondents (N=1,200) 2016 Voters 2019 Vote Intention PC NDP Liberal Unweighted (426) (297) (155) Weighted (500) (255) (142) PC 72% 3% 8% NDP 11% 68% 19% Liberal 6% 13% 53% Green 4% 7% 15% Others 2% 2% 1% Undecided 5% 7% 4% (Base)