FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Manitoba Election Voter Intention Numbers Leader’s Favourability Ratings 22nd August 2019 METHODOLOGY The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between August 17th to 19th, 2019 among a sample of 808 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party. The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.44% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. (full methodology appears at the end of this report) ABOUT MAINSTREET With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication standards. CONTACT INFORMATION In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President quito@mainstreetresearch.ca In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca Find us online at: www.mainstreetresearch.ca twitter.com/MainStResearch facebook.com/mainstreetresearch MANITOBA PCs LEAD, BUT KINEW IS THE MOST POPULAR LEADER 22 August 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – As the Manitoba provincial election heads into its final act, the governing Progressive Conservatives have a significant lead over the opposition NDP. Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Manitoba poll. The poll surveyed 810 Manitobans between August 17th to 19th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.44% and is accurate 19 times out of 20. “The level of support for both the NDP and the Conservatives is roughly the same as it was since the last time we polled in March, although the NDP is doing somewhat better,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “That said, Brian Pallister has the advantage at this stage in the election and would likely win if the vote were held today.” Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 42.5% (-2.3% from March), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 34.7% support (+2.6%). The Liberals with Dougald Lamont at the helm currently enjoy 13.1% (-1.2%), and the Greens with James Beddome as leader have 6.7% (+2.9%). The poll also asked Manitobans about their impressions of the party leaders. Once again, no party leader enjoys a positive favourability rating. However, Kinew’s net favourability rating is best among all party leaders at -6%. Pallister’s net favourability rating is -15.4%. -30For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact: Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca If a provincial election were held today, which party would oters you vote for? 17.4% 0.9% 36.5% 7.6% All Voters 9.6% ded and Leaning Voters 27.8% ll Voters Progressive Conservatives 9.6% NDP 1.4% Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided 17.4% 11.9% 0.9% 36.5% 42.5% 7.6% Decided and Leaning Voters All Voters 9.6% 34.7% 27.8% Progressive Conservatives NDP Progressive Conservatives Liberals NDP Greens Liberals Another Party Greens Undecided Another Party r Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following party leaders? Wab Kinew 3.5% 8% 19.5% 30.8% 31.6% 22.6% Brian Pallister Wab Kinew ont Dougald46.2% Lamont James Beddome Favourable Unfavourable Not sure 19.3% Not familiar 37.8% Favourable 20.9% 19.3% Unfavourable Not sure Not familiar 15.7% 20.9% 34.9% Dougald Lamont Dougald Lamont 25.9% 33.9% James Beddome 19.4% 25.9% 33.9% 29.9% Favourable Unfavourable Not sure Not familiar Favourable Unfavourable Favourable Not sure Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure Not familiar Breakout Tables If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? (all voters) 1834 3549 5064 26% 28.7% 36.6% 38.8% 45% 30.3% 44.8% 21.8% 33.5% 32.3% 28.8% 28.4% 19.5% 30.8% 23.9% 9.6% 9% 10.3% 8% 9.4% 7.7% 14.7% 10.4% 8.7% Greens led by James Bedomme 7.6% 7.7% 7.5% 6.1% 8.8% 8.8% 6.8% 7.9% 7.3% Another Party 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% - 1.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% Undecided 17.4% 12.3% 22.3% 24.9% 15% 14.3% 13.6% 19.9% 14.2% Unweighted Frequency 808 404 404 127 181 259 241 429 379 Weighted Frequency 808 393 415 238 196 209 164 460 348 Total Male Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 36.5% 47.7% NDP led by Wab Kinew 27.8% Liberals led by Dougald Lamont Female 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB (leaning voters with true undecided totals) 3549 5064 65+ 34% 39.4% 41.9% 45.3% 32.1% 49.6% 39.2% 38.5% 32.4% 30.4% 22.5% 36% 25.9% 9.8% 12.3% 10.8% 9.9% 8.4% 16.5% 12.5% 9.3% 8.9% 8.4% 9.3% 7.8% 9.4% 10.4% 8% 9% 8.8% Another Party 1.3% 2% 0.7% 0.8% 2.1% 1.9% 0.4% 1.5% 1.2% Undecided 7.3% 6.3% 8.3% 8.2% 6.7% 7% 7.4% 8.9% 5.3% Unweighted Frequency 808 404 404 127 181 259 241 429 379 Weighted Frequency 808 393 415 238 196 209 164 460 348 Total Male Female Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 39.7% 49.6% 30.2% NDP led by Wab Kinew 31.7% 23.8% Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 11.1% Greens led by James Bedomme 1834 Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB (decided and leaning voters) Female 1834 3549 5064 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB Total Male Progressive Conservatives led by Brian Pallister 42.5% 53.1% 32.4% 36% 42.3% 45% 48.9% 34.8% 52.6% NDP led by Wab Kinew 34.7% 25.5% 43.4% 43.3% 34.8% 32.8% 24.4% 40.3% 27.2% Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 11.9% 10.4% 13.3% 11.5% 10.5% 8.9% 17.8% 13.5% 9.8% Greens led by James Bedomme 9.6% 9% 10.1% 8.4% 10% 11.2% 8.6% 9.8% 9.2% Another Party 1.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 2.3% 2.1% 0.4% 1.6% 1.2% Unweighted Frequency 751 377 374 118 169 241 223 394 357 Weighted Frequency 751 366 385 222 182 195 152 427 324 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister? Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB Favourable 30.8% 39.2% 22.8% 24.8% 27.9% 33.5% 39.6% 27.4% 35.2% Unfavourable 46.2% 40% 52.2% 43.6% 53.2% 47.6% 39.9% 51.4% 39.4% Not sure 19.5% 17.4% 21.5% 26.1% 15.6% 16.2% 18.7% 18.3% 21% Not familiar with Brian Pallister 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 5.5% 3.4% 2.8% 1.7% 2.9% 4.4% Unweighted Frequency 808 404 404 127 181 259 241 429 379 Weighted Frequency 808 393 415 238 196 209 164 460 348 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew? Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB Favourable 31.6% 24.9% 38% 34% 31.1% 30.6% 30.1% 33.7% 28.8% Unfavourable 37.8% 47.3% 28.7% 28.8% 38.6% 41.4% 45.2% 37.7% 37.8% Not sure 22.6% 19.4% 25.7% 27.1% 21.2% 21.5% 19.4% 21.6% 24% Not familiar with Wab Kinew 8% 8.4% 7.7% 10.2% 9.1% 6.5% 5.4% 6.9% 9.4% Unweighted Frequency 808 404 404 127 181 259 241 429 379 Weighted Frequency 808 393 415 238 196 209 164 460 348 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dougald Lamont? Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB Favourable 20.9% 21.6% 20.3% 21.5% 21% 18.7% 22.9% 24% 16.9% Unfavourable 25.9% 33.9% 18.3% 18.8% 24.9% 31.6% 29.9% 23.6% 28.8% Not sure 33.9% 28.5% 39.1% 35.5% 30.9% 35.1% 33.7% 34.8% 32.8% Not familiar with Dougald Lamont 19.3% 16% 22.4% 24.2% 23.2% 14.6% 13.5% 17.6% 21.5% Unweighted Frequency 808 404 404 127 181 259 241 429 379 Weighted Frequency 808 393 415 238 196 209 164 460 348 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome? All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Rest of MB Winnipeg Favourable 7% 7.1% 6.9% 10% 6.4% 4.9% 5.8% 5% 8.2% Unfavourable 17.6% 25.3% 10.2% 17.8% 16.5% 21.9% 13.1% 20.9% 15.6% Not familiar with James Beddome 31.5% 30.5% 32.5% 29.6% 35.9% 25.5% 36.9% 342% 29.9% Not sure 43.9% 37.1% 50.5% 42.5% 41.3% 47.6% 44.2% 39.9% 46.3% Unweighted Frequency 810 470 340 221 210 218 161 371 439 Weighted Frequency 810 399 411 240 205 209 156 306 504 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Steven Fletcher? Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB Favourable 15.7% 15.9% 15.6% 17.4% 17.1% 12.5% 15.8% 18.5% 12.1% Unfavourable 19.4% 25.5% 13.6% 14.1% 20.4% 20.9% 24.1% 17.9% 21.5% Not sure 29.9% 26.5% 33.2% 26.2% 28.3% 35.9% 29.7% 30.4% 29.3% Not familiar with James Beddome 34.9% 32.1% 37.6% 42.3% 34.2% 30.8% 30.3% 33.3% 37.1% Unweighted Frequency 808 404 404 127 181 259 241 429 379 Weighted Frequency 808 393 415 238 196 209 164 460 348 Full Questionnaire If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by Wab Kinew Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald Lamont Green Party of Manitoba led by James Bedomme Another Party Undecided Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not sure Not familiar with Wab Kinew And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of respondents who were undecided in previous question) Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by Wab Kinew Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald Lamont Green Party of Manitoba led by James Bedomme Another Party Undecided Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Bedommel? Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not sure Not familiar with James Bedomme Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dougald Lamont? Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not sure Not familiar with Dougald Lamont What is your gender? Male Female What is your age group? 18 to 34 years of age 35 to 49 years of age (the order of the following five 50 to 64 years of age questions were randomized) 65 years of age or older Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister? Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not sure Not familiar with Brian Pallister Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew? Methodology The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between August 17th to 19th, 2019 among a sample of 808 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Manitoba. This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any thirdparty organization. The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from random digit dialing. At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period. The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question. The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and region. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.44% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.88%, Females: +/4.88%, 18-34 age group: +/- 8.7%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.28%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.09%, 65+ age group: +/- 6.31%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.73%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 5.03%. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.