THE IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY 800 Iowa likely voters Margin of error: ? 3.5 percentage points Study #2064 October 30-November 2, 2012 925 contacts weighted by age and sex Are you a resident of the state of Iowa? 100 - Yes No Not sure How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for president and other offices--will you definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, probably not vote, or have you already voted? Already voted 42 Definitely vote 58 Probably vote - Might or might not vote Probably not vote - Refused/ Not sure - - (If definitely vote, ask:) If the election for president were held today and the candidates were [BARACK OBAMA FOR THE DEMOCRATS/MITT ROMNEY FOR THE REPUBLICANS], for whom would you vote--[BARACK OBAMA/MITT ROMNEY] or for someone else? (Rotate candidate names.) (If already voted, ask:) In the election for president, for whom did you vote--[BARACK OBAMA FOR THE DEMOCRATS/MITT ROMNEY FOR THE REPUBLICANS], or for someone else? (Rotate candidate names.) (If not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember? (Ask only of those who do not name a first choice candidate:) Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or support the most? (If not sure, ask:) Is there one candidate you favor just a little more? First Choice Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else Not sure (don't remember) Don't want to tell Leaning (Based on all) 46 41 4 4 5 1 1 3 n/a Total 47 42 4 2 5 Would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to vote for another candidate? Asked only of likely voters who named a candidate as first choice or lean. By adding in the no first choice option, based on all likely voters. All Mind is made up Could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate Not sure No first choice 88 7 5 Obama supporters 95 4 1 n/a Romney supporters 96 3 1 n/a Within the last month, have any of the following happened to your opinion of the candidates--just answer yes or no. Have you: (Read list. Rotate. Multiple responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.) 7 71 9 20 1 Changed your mind about which candidate is your first choice Become more strongly committed to the candidate you already supported Become less strongly committed to the candidate you already supported None of these (VOL) Not sure _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 1 Regardless of which candidate you support, would [BARACK OBAMA or MITT ROMNEY] do the best job of: (Rotate candidate names. Read each item and repeat question. Rotate list.) Obama Romney Neither (VOL) Both (VOL) 45 41 44 44 5 7 1 - 5 8 51 38 3 1 7 Fixing the economy Reducing the federal budget deficit Handling relations with other countries Not Sure Regardless of which candidate you support, do you think [MITT ROMNEY or BARACK OBAMA]: (Rotate candidate names. Read each item and repeat question. Rotate list.) Neither (VOL) Not Sure Obama Romney 52 48 50 37 38 42 5 8 2 6 6 6 37 43 13 7 49 39 6 6 Cares the most about people like you Is the most honest Is a stronger leader Would be more likely to bring Republicans and Democrats together Is the most trustworthy In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track Not sure 48 49 3 How would you characterize your mood as we look toward election day--are you more inspired and optimistic or more angry and pessimistic? Inspired and optimistic Angry and pessimistic Not sure 65 24 11 Speaking honestly, are you 100% confident your candidate for president is the best person for the job or do you have some misgivings, even if your concerns are small? Obama All supporters n=800 n=379 73 66 25 32 2 2 100% confident Some misgivings Not sure Romney supporters n=334 65 34 1 How much of an effect will the outcome of this election have on you personally--will it affect you a lot, a little, or not much? A lot A little Not much 53 21 20 Not sure 6 _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 2 (If definitely vote, ask:) On the ballot is the question of retaining or removing four of Iowa's Supreme Court justices. On Justice David Wiggins, will you vote yes to retain or no to remove him? (If already voted, ask:) Did you cast a vote on the question of whether four Iowa Supreme Court justices should be retained? (If yes, ask:) On Justice David Wiggins, did you vote yes to retain or no to remove him? Yes to retain No to remove 38 Will not vote/ did not vote (VOL) 34 Not sure 6 22 (If definitely vote, ask:) What about the other three justices who are new to the court? Will you vote to retain all three, vote to remove one or two, or remove all three? (If already voted, ask:) What about the other three justices who are new to the court? Did you vote to retain all three, vote to remove one or two, or remove all three? Retain all three 49 Remove one or two 6 Remove all three 12 Will not vote/ did not vote (VOL) 9 Not sure 24 Did you happen to vote in the 2010 election that included races for governor and other statewide offices? (If yes, ask:) Did you vote on the question of whether to retain or remove three Iowa Supreme Court justices? (If yes, ask:) Did you vote to retain all three justices, to remove one or two, or to remove all three? 22 4 30 4 25 15 Did not vote Voted in the election, but not on the retention questions Voted to retain all three Voted to remove one or two Voted to remove all three Not sure About the Poll The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 30- Nov. 2 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 925 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent Census data. Questions based on a subsample of 800 likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents--such as by gender or age--have a larger margin of error. To qualify as likely Iowa voters, respondents had to say they live in Iowa and will definitely vote or have already voted in the November 2012 general election. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited. _______________ SELZER & COMPANY PAGE 3