CITY OF WINNIPEG
POPULATION, HOUSING AND
ECONOMIC FORECAST

Disclaimer: The 2016 City of Winnipeg Population, Housing and Economic Forecast strives to provide
accurate information gathered from a variety of sources, but makes no representation or guarantee on
the reliability and accuracy of such information.

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

2016

CONTENTS
Contents ........................................................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3
Purpose ..................................................................................................................................................... 3
The Capital Region and Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area.................................................................. 3
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 4
Short-term Forecast Uncertainties ....................................................................................................... 4
Key Facts and Figures ............................................................................................................................ 4
Methodology................................................................................................................................................. 5
The 2016 Forecast ......................................................................................................................................... 6
Demography Trends.................................................................................................................................. 6
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 6
Population Forecast Summary .............................................................................................................. 6
Population Forecast for CMA, City of Winnipeg and Rest of CMA ....................................................... 7
Population Growth Rate ....................................................................................................................... 9
Births, Deaths and the Natural Rate of Increase ................................................................................ 10
Migration............................................................................................................................................. 11
Age Distribution .................................................................................................................................. 13
Housing ................................................................................................................................................... 18
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 18
Housing Growth .................................................................................................................................. 19
Housing Starts ..................................................................................................................................... 21
Economy.................................................................................................................................................. 22
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 22
Gross Domestic Product...................................................................................................................... 22
Consumer Price Index ......................................................................................................................... 23
Labour Market .................................................................................................................................... 24
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 27
Appendix: Data Tables ................................................................................................................................ 28
Total Population for CMA, Winnipeg and Rest of CMA .......................................................................... 28
Households and Housing Starts in City of Winnipeg............................................................................... 29

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Economic Indicators for CMA ................................................................................................................. 30
Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................ 31

Figure 1: 2016 Population Forecast .............................................................................................................. 7
Figure 2: Annual Population Growth Rate (%) .............................................................................................. 9
Figure 3: Annual Births and Deaths (CMA) ................................................................................................. 10
Figure 4: Annual Natural Increase (CMA) ................................................................................................... 10
Figure 5: Components of Immigration (CMA)............................................................................................. 11
Figure 6: Annual Net Migration (CMA) ....................................................................................................... 12
Figure 7: 2006 Age Group Distribution (CMA) ............................................................................................ 13
Figure 8: 2016 Age Group Distribution (CMA) ............................................................................................ 14
Figure 9: 2026 Age Group Distribution (CMA) ............................................................................................ 14
Figure 10: 2036 Age Group Distribution (CMA) .......................................................................................... 15
Figure 11: Total Population Growth in Age Groups: 2015 to 2040 (CMA) ................................................. 16
Figure 12: Average Age in Winnipeg CMA .................................................................................................. 17
Figure 13: Winnipeg Population Growth and Housing Starts ..................................................................... 18
Figure 14: Household Forecast (City of Winnipeg) ..................................................................................... 19
Figure 15: City of Winnipeg Household Growth Rate (%) ........................................................................... 20
Figure 16: City of Winnipeg Household Growth (Total per Year) ............................................................... 20
Figure 17: City of Winnipeg Singles and Multi Starts .................................................................................. 21
Figure 18: City of Winnipeg Total Annual Starts ......................................................................................... 22
Figure 19: Annual Per Cent Growth in GDP (CMA) ..................................................................................... 23
Figure 20: Consumer Price Index (CMA) ..................................................................................................... 24
Figure 21: Unemployment Rate (CMA) ....................................................................................................... 25
Figure 22: Employment (CMA).................................................................................................................... 25
Figure 23: Personal Income Per Capita (CMA) ............................................................................................ 26

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INTRODUCTION
Purpose
The 2016 City of Winnipeg Population, Housing and Economic Forecast was created to serve as a
reference document to support the City of Winnipeg in planning of the city. The aim of this report is to
provide a common basis from which decisions can be made. By monitoring and reporting on the
economic region and its environment, decision makers are kept informed of opportunities and threats
that may exist in the region. This report provides base information to commence the next OurWinnipeg
review.

The Capital Region and Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area
Statistics Canada and The Conference Board of Canada often provide information based on Census
Metropolitan Areas (CMA). The CMA includes the core city and any neighbouring municipalities where
50% or more of the labour force works in the core city.
In the following pages there will be reference to Winnipeg’s CMA. The map below shows the Capital
Region, with Winnipeg CMA highlighted in green. Winnipeg CMA includes the rural municipalities of:

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Ritchot
Taché
Springfield
East St. Paul
West St. Paul
Rosser
St. Francois Xavier
Headingley
St. Clements
Brokenhead First Nation
MacDonald

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The population of the City of Winnipeg is expected to increase from around 718,400 individuals in 2015
to around 922,600 by 2040, an increase of over 200,000 people. Population growth will be mainly driven
by continued international immigration. These individuals will continue to seek housing, maintaining
current growth in housing demand; however, aging baby boomers and changing affordability will result
in more multiple dwellings being built than single-detached. Over the forecast horizon, the annual
growth in the Winnipeg real Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth adjusted for inflation) will be
maintained around 2.1%.
Short-term Forecast Uncertainties
 Federal Budget Announcement on March 22, 2016
o The impact of infrastructure investment spending locally is anticipated to have positive
effects on real economic growth.
 Federal Immigration Policy change announced on March 8, 2016
o The Minister of Immigration announced changes to the country’s immigration policy,
increasing two out of the three permanent resident categories: family and refugee. The
new national target is 300,000 immigrants per year, up from the 250,000 range.
Correspondingly, there may be an increase in the total immigration figures for
Winnipeg.
Key Facts and Figures
 2015 Population of City of Winnipeg: 718,400.
 2040 Population of City of Winnipeg: 922,600.
 2040 Population of the City of Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area: 1,055,500.
 2034/35 Population of the City of Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area exceeds 1,000,000 for
the first time.
 Average annual population growth for the City of Winnipeg over the next 25 years is
approximately 8,200 people per year.
 Population outside of the City of Winnipeg but within the CMA is growing at double the rate
within the City of Winnipeg: 2% outside the City, versus 1% inside.
 Net migration to average approximately 7,600 per year from 2015 to 2040.
 Immigration has changed the age distribution of the City.
 From 2015 to 2040, the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups will increase by 17% and 10% respectively,
whereas the 75+ age group will increase by 140%, resulting in an increase in average age in the
Winnipeg CMA from around 39 to approximately 43.
 The number of households is expected to increase by around 32% or approximately 100,000, to
a total of 391,100 in 2040.
 Single-detached dwelling annual starts will decrease while multiple dwellings will increase, with
the annual total remaining around 4,000 per year.
 Real GDP (RGDP) expected to grow by around 2.1% per year.

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CPI expected to grow by around 2.0% per year.
Unemployment rate expected to decrease to around 4.8%.
Personal income, per capita, expected to double over the 25 year forecast horizon from $40,000
to $80,000.

METHODOLOGY
The City of Winnipeg purchases forecasts from the Conference Board of Canada, which is widely
considered the foremost independent, evidence-based, not-for-profit applied research organization.
The Conference Board of Canada is funded exclusively through fee for service in the private and public
sectors and does not lobby for specific interests.1 The Conference Board of Canada forecasts population
in concert with their Winnipeg macroeconomic model. The model forecasts the relationship between
the labour market and potential real economic growth, and is consistent with population and labour
supply.
The forecast from The Conference Board of Canada forms the basis of our long-term outlook for the
Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), the City of Winnipeg and the rest of the CMA. The 2016 forecast is
based on the Long-term Population Housing and Economic Forecast for Winnipeg, presented to the City
of Winnipeg in October 2015. The original report is included as an appendix to this report.
Information Sources
Please see the bibliography for a complete list of information sources.
Conference Board of Canada Forecast of Winnipeg CMA
 Analyzes the economy and forecasts growth using econometric model.
 Estimates job creation and labour market needs.
 Estimates net migration components (international, interprovincial, and intraprovincial)
 Factors in estimates of “natural increase” (births minus deaths) using Statistics Canada model.
City of Winnipeg Forecast
 City of Winnipeg population and housing forecast data is derived based on CMA data.
 Split between City of Winnipeg and Rest of CMA is derived based on regression analysis of
historic trends of population and housing growth rates.

1

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/about-cboc/default.aspx

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THE 2016 FORECAST
Demography Trends
Introduction
Demographic trends influence the long-term outlook of both the supply and demand of an economy and
are also a major focus of municipal planning. For example, the growth in population and changing age
structure are major determinants of the labour force, a major component of the supply-side of the
economy. This labour force is the core of shaping the potential output of an economy. At the same time,
the amount of people and their age influences the types of purchasing decisions, or overall domestic
demand. From the perspective of the City of Winnipeg, the overall size and structure of the demography
can influence major policy decisions, from long-term planning of housing developments, to nearly all
City services, like recreation, transit, ambulance and others. As a result, most analyses begin with a
thorough examination of the major trends that are present within a population. This section contains
the current forecast which includes a study of the significance for the City of Winnipeg.
Population Forecast Summary
Population growth in the City of Winnipeg has been influenced by three trends: the natural increase,
immigration and interprovincial migration. In turn, these trends are influencing patterns of where
population growth is expected to occur within the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). This
section provides this analysis.
The natural increase of a population is simply the difference between total births and total deaths. This
value is largely influenced by average total number of children being born per woman (known as the
fertility rate), and on the other end, the average life expectancy. From a national perspective, this
peaked around 4 children per woman in the early 1960’s, then declined to around 1.5 children per
woman by the early 1980’s – where it is now.2 While this value has been declining, due to the recent
influx of immigration, the natural increase has been and is anticipated to continue increasing the near
term to around 3,500 by 2022.
Immigration is recognized as playing a key role in population growth3 and indeed, immigration has been,
and continues to be, the largest single contributor to population growth in Winnipeg. There are several
ways an individual or family can immigrate, either as a temporary or permanent resident. Within the
permanent resident category, there are three immigration classes: economic, family and refugee. The
largest class driving immigration is the economic class, and this is mostly influenced by the Manitoba
Provincial Nominee Program (75% of all permanent residents into Manitoba in 2014) which introduces
skilled workers and business immigrants into the Province and City of Winnipeg.4

2

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2014002-eng.htm
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2014001-eng.htm
4
http://www.gov.mb.ca/labour/immigration/pdf/mb_imm_facts_rep_2014.pdf
3

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The nominee program helps speed up immigration by selecting skilled workers who have the intention
of becoming permanent residents. Introduced in the late 1990s, the nominee program has been
increasing the number of individuals, to where it recently resulted in over 13,000 in 2014.5
At the same time, interprovincial migration, people moving to or from Winnipeg, is expected to trend in
Winnipeg’s favour. While still remaining a net loss for Winnipeg, according to The Conference Board of
Canada, in the short-term this will improve, largely motivated by expectations of labourers who sought
employment in the oil industry or elsewhere and will be either moving for the first time, or returning, to
Winnipeg.6
Another population trend has been occurring: the difference in the rate of growth within the City of
Winnipeg versus the rest of the Winnipeg CMA. In fact, the rest of the CMA is growing at over double
the rate of the City of Winnipeg (0.86% average annual growth from 2001 to 2015 in the City of
Winnipeg versus 1.78% in the rest of the CMA). As a consequence, the model used to forecast the share
of population growth between the City of Winnipeg and the rest of the CMA assumes this divergence.
Population Forecast for CMA, City of Winnipeg and Rest of CMA
Figure 1: 2016 Population Forecast illustrates the absolute amount of population growth over the recent
history of the City of Winnipeg and forecasted horizon.
Figure 1: 2016 Population Forecast

2016 Population Forecast
1,200,000
1,000,000
Population

800,000
600,000
400,000

CMA Population
CoW Population
RoCMA Population

200,000
-

Source: CANSIM, The Conference Board of Canada, City of Winnipeg analysis
Winnipeg CMA is expected to grow from approximately 793,400 people in 2015 to approximately
1,055,500 in 2040. This is an increase of approximately 262,100 people, or 33%. The average annual
growth is expected to trend around 10,500 people per year.

5
6

Immigration Levels: http://www.gov.mb.ca/labour/immigration/pdf/mb_imm_facts_rep_2014.pdf
CBOC Long-Term Population, Housing and Economic Forecast for Winnipeg, October 2015, Page 3.

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The City of Winnipeg expected to grow from approximately 718,400 people in 2015 to approximately
922,600 in 2040. This is an increase of approximately 204,200 people, or 28%. The average annual
growth in City of Winnipeg is expected to trend around 8,200 people per year.
Outside of the City of Winnipeg but within the Winnipeg CMA is expected to grow from approximately
75,100 people in 2015 to approximately 132,900 in 2040. This is an increase of approximately 57,800
people, or 77%. The average annual growth outside of the City of Winnipeg is expected to trend around
2,300 people per year.
The reader should note the significant difference in the percentage growth of the Rest of CMA
compared to the City of Winnipeg. This can be explained by two facts: first, the Rest of the CMA is
growing at a much faster rate than the City of Winnipeg. Indeed, for the past decade the rate of growth
has been approximately double outside of the City of Winnipeg, and this trend is expected to continue.
Second, these are percent changes so even though the City of Winnipeg is expected to grow by almost
3.5 times more than outside the City, on a percentage basis this is smaller. The reader can see these
figures below in Table 1: Expected Population Growth.
Table 1: Expected Population Growth

Winnipeg CMA
City of Winnipeg
Rest of CMA

Expected Population Growth
Over Next
10 Years (2015-2025)
25 Years (2015-2040)
107,100
262,100
87,800
204,200
19,200
57,800

Source: The Conference Board of Canada, City of Winnipeg.

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Population Growth Rate
Figure 2: Annual Population Growth Rate (%) illustrates the average annual growth of the population in
the City of Winnipeg from the recent history (2001 to 2015) and over the forecast horizon (2016 to
2040).
Figure 2: Annual Population Growth Rate (%)

Population Growth (%)

Annual Population Growth Rate (%)
2.00%
1.80%
1.60%
1.40%
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%

CoW % Growth Actual
CoW % Growth Forecast

Source: CANSIM, The Conference Board of Canada, City of Winnipeg regression analysis
The rate of growth in the population has increased significantly through the 2000s to present: from a
low of 0.28% per year (2005) to a peak of 1.73% per year (2012). The forecast horizon projects this rate
of growth to gradually decline from approximately 1.2% currently to around 0.75% in 2040.

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Births, Deaths and the Natural Rate of Increase
Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the projected pattern of births and deaths and consequential natural rate of
increase (births minus deaths). Figure 3: Annual Births and Deaths (CMA) illustrates these aspects
separately, while the Figure 4: Annual Natural Increase (CMA) is the net growth, calculated by
subtracting deaths from births.
Figure 3: Annual Births and Deaths (CMA)

Births and Deaths (CMA)
12,000

People

10,000
8,000
6,000

Births

4,000

Deaths

2,000
0

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Figure 4: Annual Natural Increase (CMA)

Natural Increase (CMA)
12000

People

10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Total births and deaths will continue to rise over the projected horizon. The fertility rate – the number
of children born to the average woman over her lifetime – peaked at almost 4 children per woman, in

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1966. Since then, this number has been falling to where it is now, leading to a slowdown in overall
natural population growth.7 This figure is not anticipated to increase. The overall natural increase will
decline from a forecasted high of approximately 3,500 in 2021 to 1,500 by the end of the forecast in
2040.
Migration
Figure 5: Components of Immigration (CMA) provides an illustration of the year over year net
immigration values for intercity, interprovincial and international sources from 2015 to 2040. Net
migration is the difference between in and out migration, and a positive value means that Winnipeg is
receiving more migrants than those leaving the city. Historically, the Winnipeg CMA has netted more
international migrants than from any other component of immigration. This is in contrast to
interprovincial migration, which has historically been a major source of population loss: more people
tend to leave Manitoba for other provinces than return. However according to The Conference Board of
Canada, over the forecast horizon this is expected to change particularly as the relative strength of the
Winnipeg economy draws individuals, and this is reflected below. This chart demonstrates that it is
important to not only attract population, but to retain it. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts that
retention over time will improve in the City of Winnipeg.
Figure 5: Components of Immigration (CMA)

Components of Immigration (CMA)
15,000

People

10,000
5,000
0
Intercity
-5,000
-10,000

Interprovincial
International

Source: CANSIM, The Conference Board of Canada
On a total net migration basis, Figure 6: Annual Net Migration (CMA) illustrates the net effect of the
above components of migration together. As illustrated below, over the course of Winnipeg’s recent
history, from the late 1980’s to mid-2000’s, Winnipeg has either lost or yielded only a small amount of
immigration. In fact, from 1987 to 1998, the Winnipeg CMA lost approximately 17,000 individuals. The
introduction of the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program in 1997 significantly changed this pattern.
1999 saw the first positive net migration figure of around 900 in nearly a decade, and since then has
7

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2014002-eng.htm

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steadily increased to a peak of around 11,000 in 2012. Cumulatively, from 1999 to 2015 the Winnipeg
CMA has seen approximately 88,000 net migrants. As illustrated in Figure 6: Annual Net Migration
(CMA) this figure is forecasted to stabilize in the range of 7,000 to 8,000 people net migrants per year.
Figure 6: Annual Net Migration (CMA)

Net Migration (CMA)
12,000
10,000

Net Immigration - Actual
Net Immigration - Forecast

People

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
All three aspects of net migration move in Winnipeg’s favour over the forecast horizon: net international
immigration is expected to increase from approximately 8,300 to 9,000, while net migration
(interprovincial plus intercity), improves from an annual loss of approximately 1,200 to an annual loss of
approximately 800. In the next two years, interprovincial migration losses are expected to drop to below
2,000 (from peak losses of 5,000 people per year in 2005 and 2006). Because of declining fertility rates,
the federal government sets the total number of immigrants to Canada between 260,000 and 285,000
per year, and is this expected to rise to around 340,000 per year by 2040. Indeed, there have been
recent announcements of an increase in immigration targets.8
Not only will Winnipeg attract people from other provinces, Winnipeg is expected to continue to attract
people from within Manitoba, where workers are expected to migrate to the city to take advantage of
the better employment opportunities. As services-producing industries continue to increase, reliance on
primary industries declines, more and more people are expected to move to the city, and therefore,
intercity migration is projected to climb from a historic average of 440 per year, to over 700.
On the whole, low unemployment rates will continue to attract labour to the city, providing individuals
with better choices, flexibility in the job market, and greater bargaining power.
Strong immigration has had an impact on Winnipeg’s ethnic structure. Visible minorities accounted for
21.4% of the population of Winnipeg in 2011, up from 16.3% in 2006. The Philippines ranked as the

8

http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=1041829

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area’s top immigration source, and correspondingly, is the largest visible minority community,
comprising over 56,000 individuals in 2011, up by 20,000 from 2006.
Age Distribution
The following four figures (Figures 7 to 10) illustrate the changing distribution of population age within
the Winnipeg CMA, which when examined over time, tells a story about the impact of baby boomers
and international immigration. The first figure starts in 2006 and the last figure ends in 2036.
There are two distinct waves, which are highlighted by the blue and red stars. The blue star points to the
“baby-boomer” generation, and the red star points to the Gen X and Gen Y generations. As the babyboomer generation gets older, the average age of Winnipeg’s population is expected to gently rise (See:
Figure 12: Average Age in Winnipeg CMA). Baby-boomers account for about a quarter (25%) of the
population, and are just starting to enter retirement, changing the needs and requirements placed on
the City of Winnipeg and the economy as a whole.
Figure 7: 2006 Age Group Distribution (CMA)

2006

People

15000
10000
5000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Age

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

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Figure 8: 2016 Age Group Distribution (CMA)

2016

People

15,000
10,000
5,000

0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
108

0
Age

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Figure 9: 2026 Age Group Distribution (CMA)

2026

People

15,000
10,000
5,000

0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
108

0
Age

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

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Figure 10: 2036 Age Group Distribution (CMA)

2036

People

15,000
10,000
5,000

0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
108

0
Age

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Over the period of the forecast horizon several patterns emerge through the various age groups. Each
group will change but not in the same way. Figure 11: Total Population Growth in Age Groups: 2015 to
2040 (CMA) and Table 2: Population Growth in Age Groups (CMA) provide a detailed summary of the
absolute and percent change over time.
As illustrated in Figure 11, the different age groups are expected to change in different ways from 2015
to 2040. In total, the eldest group, 75 to 110 years old (75+) is expected to increase in size by 139%, or
71,600 individuals. In terms of per cent change, the smallest change is expected to occur in the 25-34
age group: it is forecast to increase by only 8% or 9,100 individuals.
Also, these patterns change in different ways over the years from 2015 to 2040. For example, from 2015
to 2023, there is expected to be a significant decrease in the number of 15-24 year olds: by nearly 5,000.
After 2023, this cohort will increase, but only by 19,600 in 2040. Similarly, the 45-54 age group is
expected to decrease by almost 500 people from 2015 to 2023, but then to increase until 2040. These
details are provided below in Table 2: Population Growth in Age Groups (CMA).

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Figure 11: Total Population Growth in Age Groups: 2015 to 2040 (CMA)

People

Total Population Growth in Age Groups: 2015 to 2040
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0-4

5-14

15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

Age Groups

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Table 2: Population Growth in Age Groups (CMA)

2015-23
%
2015-32
%
2015-40
%

0-4
6,700
15%
6,700
15%
8,100
19%

5-14
11,000
13%
23,000
26%
23,400
27%

15-24
-5,000
-5%
6,500
6%
19,600
18%

25-34
7,100
6%
0
0%
9,100
8%

35-44
21,700
20%
36,000
33%
29,900
28%

45-54
-500
0%
22,500
20%
39,300
35%

55-64
9,800
10%
8,000
8%
26,900
27%

65-74
21,600
33%
37,400
58%
34,400
53%

75+
13,200
26%
42,300
82%
71,600
139%

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

It is important to consider the impact changes in the distribution of the population can have on the
services demanded within the City of Winnipeg. For example, younger age groups, particularly from 0 to
14, place demands on very specific types of public infrastructure, like playgrounds and pools, while older
age groups place different demands, like public gardens. Similarly, older generations will place more
demand on the City of Winnipeg with respect to emergency or ambulatory services – it is significant that
this is the age group that is expected to increase by the largest amount.
Also significant is the change with respect to the share of baby-boomers within the population: in the
recent past there were major concerns this share of population would become too large relative to the
others, placing too much burden on a smaller and smaller share. To a degree this concern has been
alleviated due to the increase and anticipated increase in the share of population aged 25-45, which has
been caused by immigration. On the whole, though, the overall age of the population is becoming older,

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as illustrated in Figure 12: Average Age in Winnipeg CMA. By taking all individuals into account, the
overall age of Winnipeg is expected to gently increase from just over 39 in 2015 to around 43 by 2040.
Figure 12: Average Age in Winnipeg CMA

Growth of Average Age in Winnipeg CMA
44.00
Average Age

43.00
42.00
41.00
40.00
39.00
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

38.00

Year

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

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Housing
Introduction
One of the most important financial decisions a Winnipegger can make is whether to purchase and own
a house. For younger individuals, homeownership may be a financial challenge, tying up a larger share of
disposable income. For older Winnipeggers, ownership of a home is viewed as an implicit source of
income; equity held in reserve that may be liquidated and used as income.
From the perspective of the City of Winnipeg, changes in numbers and types of homes affect both sides
of the municipal budget. For example, new homes and new neighborhoods will result in an increase in
demand for municipal services, like road infrastructure, sewer, water, and overall general municipal
planning, given changing geographical requirements. Existing homes also face changes – changes in
demand and supply for services over time, like new requirements for sewer and water. At the same
time, houses, and the property they exist upon, are the single largest and arguably most important
source of revenue for the City of Winnipeg.
Given the significance housing has on both the citizenry of Winnipeg, and the impact it has on the City of
Winnipeg, it is crucial to examine and understand the trends that exist within our City. It is important to
maintain awareness of these trends so that policy can be shaped to align with both the economy of
Winnipeg, and the ever-changing demands for services.
Figure 13: Winnipeg Population Growth and Housing Starts

Winnipeg Population Growth and Housing Starts (1992 to 2015)
1.50%

4000

1.00%

3000

0.50%

2000

0.00%

1000

Total Housing Starts (Right Axis)

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

0
1992

-0.50%

Annual Total Housing Starts

5000

Annual Population Growth (%)

2.00%

Population % Growth (Left Axis)

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC
As population increases in our city, as does the demand for dwelling types, which is collectively referred
to as housing or households. Therefore it is important to separate the number of households into
dwelling types: singles, or individual separate households, and multiples (apartments, duplexes, row
housing). This is significant because it will inform planners on the amount and type of demands to be
placed with respect to land and services, and where these dwellings may be constructed in the future.

18

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

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Housing Growth
Figure 14: Household Forecast (City of Winnipeg) illustrates the overall total growth in households
within the City of Winnipeg. Housing is defined as any type of dwelling unit, which includes both single
detached, and multiples.
Figure 14: Household Forecast (City of Winnipeg)

Total Households Forecast
450,000

Households

400,000
350,000
300,000

CoW Households Actual
CoW Households Forecast

250,000
200,000

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
From 2002 to 2015, the number of households in the City of Winnipeg has increased from around
249,000 to around 291,900, or by 17%. Over the forecast horizon to 2040, the number of households is
expected to increase by around 32% or approximately 100,000 units to 391,100. This growth is based on
the change in population growth and therefore demand for housing. As illustrated by Figure 15: City of
Winnipeg Household Growth Rate (%), the annual rate of growth averaged 0.6% per year from 2002 to
2010, and from 2010 to present this growth rate has been around 2.2% per year. Over the forecast
horizon, this rate of growth is not expected to be maintained: from 2016 to 2040 the rate of growth is
expected to decline from around 1.5% per year to around 0.9% per year.

19

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

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Figure 15: City of Winnipeg Household Growth Rate (%)

Household Growth Rate (%)

Household Growth (%)
3.50%

Household Growth Actual
Household Growth Forecast

3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
This pattern can also be illustrated in absolute terms as well: Figure 16: City of Winnipeg Household
Growth (Total per Year). From 2003 to 2015, there was a significant change in the annual increase in
number of households from around 2,000 units per year to a peak of almost 8,000. This rate of growth
is not expected to be maintained; the total annual household growth rate is forecasted to decline from
around 4,500 units per year to around 3,500 per year in 2040.
Figure 16: City of Winnipeg Household Growth (Total per Year)

City of Winnipeg Household Annual Growth
9,000
Households Per Year

8,000

Annual Growth Actual

7,000

Annual Growth Forecast

6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
-

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

1,000

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

20

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

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Housing Starts
Winnipeg’s housing market has begun a transformation which is changing the type of housing expected
to be constructed, or started. Primarily, aging baby boomers and reduced housing affordability of singlefamily dwellings has, and will, increase the demand for multi-family units. This can be illustrated by the
recent history and forecasted horizon in Figure 17: City of Winnipeg Singles and Multi Starts. Beginning
in 2013, the number of multi-unit starts exceeded the number of single-unit starts, and in the past few
years has been exceptionally high. In 2015 the number of multiple units started was around 2,700 versus
under 1,300 for singles.
Over the short run, the number of multiples started is expected to decline to around 2,000, however
over the long run it is expected to increase to around 2,500 per year. Moreover, the number of multiples
constructed per year is expected to increase each year from around 2,000 in 2017 to 2,500 in 2040,
whereas the number of singles is expected to decrease.
Figure 17: City of Winnipeg Singles and Multi Starts

City of Winnipeg Single and Multi Starts
3,000
2,500
Starts

2,000
1,500
1,000

-

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

500

CoW Single

CoW Multi

Source: CMHC, The Conference Board of Canada
Taken together, the number of total housing starts in the City of Winnipeg is expected to maintain an
annual rate of around 4,000 units per year. As illustrated by Figure 18: City of Winnipeg Total Annual
Starts, this is expected to remain fairly flat over the forecast horizon. Cumulatively, the number of
multiples started is expected to reach around 60,000 by 2040, and for singles, around 40,000.

21

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Figure 18: City of Winnipeg Total Annual Starts

Annual Housing Starts Total

Total Annual Starts: Actual and Forecast
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

Total Starts Actual
Total Starts Forecast

Source: CMHC, The Conference Board of Canada

Economy
Introduction
This section will provide forecasts about the Winnipeg CMA economy, focusing on gross domestic
product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, and income patterns.
The Winnipeg CMA is expected to have a healthy economy over the forecast horizon to 2040 because of
diversity in manufacturing, strong construction activity, and an expanding services sector – and all of this
should result in strong employment growth.
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product is the monetary measure of the value of all goods and services produced over a
period of time in an economy. It is the sum of all consumption, investment, government spending, and
the net difference between exports and imports. The maximum gross domestic product an economy can
achieve is called the natural gross domestic product, or the production possibilities frontier. When an
economy is producing at or close to its natural GDP, unemployment will fall and inflation will begin to
rise. As illustrated in Figure 19: Annual Per Cent Growth in GDP (CMA), GDP is expected to grow by an
average annual compound growth rate of 2.1% from 2015 to 2040, and unemployment and inflation will
continue to fall and rise, respectively. These are considered healthy signs of an economy.

22

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Figure 19: Annual Per Cent Growth in GDP (CMA)

Annual % Growth in GDP

Annual Growth in GDP (%)
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
-1%
-1%

Annual Growth in GDP (%) Actual
Annual Growth in GDP (%) Forecast

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Over the short-run, real GDP is expected to be very strong, growing around 2.6% given the considerable
amount of construction activity. Over the long-run, real GDP is expected to grow by an average annual
compound growth rate of 2.1% from 2015 to 2040. This will be driven by strong diversity, featuring
manufacturing, construction and service sector, resulting in strong long-term employment and income
growth. Provincial mining and electricity-generating potential will lead to further megaprojects being
developed over the next decade which will directly benefit Winnipeg’s economy. Stable provincial and
municipal spending commitments to upgrade infrastructure (hospitals, sewage, roads) will support
Winnipeg’s growth. As a consequence of strong employment and income growth, local domestic
demand, consumer spending and retail sales will continue remaining healthy.
Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index is the most familiar measure of general price change in an economy. Simply, it
represents the price change of a typical consumer basket of goods over a period of time. This change in
price may increase, which is known as inflation, or decrease, which is known as deflation. Changes in
prices over time can impact both consumers as well as planners at the City of Winnipeg. For example, if
a consumer anticipates a decrease in price of a certain good or service, the individual may defer
purchasing until that expected decrease occurs. Similarly, price changes can impact salary negotiations
between employees and employers, such as occurs at the City of Winnipeg. Depending on how
significant actual or expected changes are, it can adversely impact an economy. For example, in the
early 1980’s, annual CPI reached peaks of 12% change per year – this meant that the price of consumer
goods and services increased by 12% from one year to the next.9 Recognizing this impact, since February
1991, the Bank of Canada has targeted annual consumer price index inflation between 1% and 3% per
year through use of monetary policy.10 Since then, annual inflation of the consumer price index has
9

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ46b-eng.htm
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/inflation-control-target/

10

23

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

2016

largely remained within these targets. The readers will note that the inflation targeting regime is up for
review in 2016.
Over the forecast horizon, annual CPI change is expected to remain around 2% per year. As illustrated by
Figure 20: Consumer Price Index (CMA), with prices of consumer goods and services compounding at a
rate of around 2% per year, an item worth $1.00 in 2015 will cost just under $1.70 in 2040.
Figure 20: Consumer Price Index (CMA)

2040

2039

2038

2037

2036

2035

2034

2033

2032

2031

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
2015

Index: 2015 = 1.0

Consumer Price Index (2015=1.0)

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Labour Market
Statistics related to employment are among the most watched indicators of an economy. There are two
ways to look at the labour market: employment and unemployment. The definitions for employment
and unemployment are somewhat complex, but generally refer to an individual who did paid or unpaid
work, over a period of time, at a business, self-employment, or household-owned operation.
Unemployment is not just the reverse; rather, it is defined as not employed and also seeking
employment. The unemployment rate is expected to remain low, declining from around 5.4 to 4.8 over
the forecast horizon.

24

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

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Figure 21: Unemployment Rate (CMA)

Unemployment Rate (CMA)
Unemployment Rate (%)

7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%

Unemployment Rate Actual

3.0%

Unemployment Rate Forecast

2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Historically, the Winnipeg CMA has had a low unemployment rate relative to other Census Metropolitan
Areas across Canada. In fact, since November 2005, Winnipeg has exceeded the national unemployment
rate for only one month, which briefly occurred in February 2015.11 Matching this fact has been a
consistent growth in the number of employed individuals in Winnipeg. As illustrated by Figure 22:
Employment (CMA) below, the Winnipeg CMA has increased the number of employed individuals, or
jobs, by almost 35,000. Given the confidence in the economy, the consistently low unemployment rate,
this rate of growth is expected to continue for the forecast horizon, resulting in almost 120,000 new jobs
from 2015 to 2040.
Figure 22: Employment (CMA)

Employed People / Jobs

Employment (CMA)
600,000
500,000
400,000

Employment - Actual

300,000

Employment - Forecast

200,000
100,000
0

200520072009 2011 20132015 2017 2019 2021 20232025 2027 20292031 203320352037 2039

Source: The Conference Board of Canada
11

Source: CANSIM Table 282-0135 Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by census metropolitan area based on
2011 Census boundaries, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, monthly

25

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

2016

As a consequence of the growth in the Winnipeg CMA economy (as measure by GDP), the low
unemployment rate expectations, and finally the consistent employment growth, income on a per capita
basis is expected to rise. As illustrated in Figure 23: Personal Income Per Capita (CMA), personal income
per capita is expected to double, from around $40,000 per person, to around $80,000 per person in
2040. Similarly, disposable income is expected to increase at an almost identical rate, growing from
around $30,000 in 2015 to around $60,000.
Figure 23: Personal Income Per Capita (CMA)

90,000.0
80,000.0
70,000.0
60,000.0
50,000.0
40,000.0
30,000.0
20,000.0
10,000.0
0.0

Personal Income Per Capita
Personal Disposable Income Per Capita

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

Personal Income (CDN $)

Annual Personal Income

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

26

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

2016

CONCLUSION
The population of the City of Winnipeg is expected to increase from around 718,400 individuals in 2015
to around 922,600 by 2040. Population growth will be driven largely by continued international
immigration. These individuals will continue to seek housing, maintaining the current growth in housing
demand; however the aging baby boomers and changing affordability of dwellings will result in more
multiple dwellings being built than single-detached. Over the forecast horizon, the annual growth in the
Winnipeg real Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth adjusted for inflation) will be maintained around
2.1%, resulting in strong employment and a doubling of per capita gross and disposable income.

27

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

2016

APPENDIX: DATA TABLES
Total Population for CMA, Winnipeg and Rest of CMA
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

28

Winnipeg CMA
746,100
759,600
770,300
782,600
793,400
803,500
814,100
824,600
835,300
846,000
856,800
867,600
878,500
889,500
900,500
911,400
922,200
933,100
943,800
954,500
965,000
975,400
985,700
995,900
1,006,000
1,016,000
1,025,900
1,035,800
1,045,700
1,055,500

Change
13,500
10,700
12,300
10,800
10,100
10,600
10,500
10,700
10,700
10,800
10,800
10,900
11,000
11,000
10,900
10,800
10,900
10,700
10,700
10,500
10,400
10,300
10,200
10,100
10,000
9,900
9,900
9,900
9,800

City of Winnipeg
677,800
689,500
698,600
709,200
718,400
726,700
735,500
744,200
753,000
761,900
770,700
779,500
788,400
797,300
806,200
814,900
823,500
832,000
840,400
848,700
856,800
864,700
872,400
880,000
887,400
894,700
901,800
908,900
915,800
922,600

Change
11,700
9,100
10,600
9,200
8,300
8,800
8,700
8,800
8,900
8,800
8,800
8,900
8,900
8,900
8,700
8,600
8,500
8,400
8,300
8,100
7,900
7,700
7,600
7,400
7,300
7,100
7,100
6,900
6,800

Rest of CMA
68,200
70,100
71,700
73,400
75,100
76,800
78,600
80,400
82,300
84,200
86,100
88,100
90,100
92,200
94,300
96,500
98,800
101,000
103,400
105,800
108,200
110,700
113,300
115,900
118,600
121,300
124,100
127,000
129,900
132,900

Change
1,900
1,600
1,700
1,700
1,700
1,800
1,800
1,900
1,900
1,900
2,000
2,000
2,100
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,200
2,400
2,400
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,600
2,700
2,700
2,800
2,900
2,900
3,000

 CITY OF WINNIPEG
Households and Housing Starts in City of Winnipeg
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

29

Households
264,700
272,600
279,600
287,400
291,900
296,400
300,800
305,000
309,300
313,700
318,000
322,200
326,300
330,400
334,600
338,700
342,700
346,500
350,600
354,500
358,300
362,200
366,000
369,900
373,600
377,200
380,700
384,200
387,700
391,100

Singles
1,600
1,700
1,700
1,400
1,300
1,400
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,700
1,700
1,700
1,700
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,400
1,400
1,400
1,400

Multiples
1,200
1,800
2,200
2,200
2,700
2,000
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,500
2,600
2,600
2,600
2,600
2,600
2,600
2,600
2,600
2,600
2,500

2016

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

2016

Economic Indicators for CMA
Year
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040

30

Gross Domestic
Product (%)
2.5
3.0
2.6
1.7
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

Population
Growth (%)
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9

Unemployment Consumer Price
Rate (%)
Index (%)
5.4
1.0
5.2
2.2
5.1
2.0
5.1
2.0
5.1
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.9
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1
4.8
2.1

 CITY OF WINNIPEG

2016

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. (2016, February). Historical Starts by Dwelling Type.
Retrieved 02 19, 2016, from Winnipeg CY.
Conference Board of Canada. (2015). Long-Term Population, Housing and Economic Forecast for
Winnipeg. The Conference Board of Canada.
Statistics Canada. (2016, 02 11). Annual Population Estimates by Sex, July 1 2001 to 2015, Census
Subdivision Winnipeg.
Statistics Canada. (n.d.). Table 051-0056 - Estimates of population by census metropolitan area, sex and
age group for July 1, based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2011, annual
(persons). Retrieved 03 12, 2016

31