?? ? POLL July 24-30, 2012 Florida Likely voters N = 1,177 Ohio Likely voters N = 1,193 Pennsylvania Likely voters N = 1,168 All results are among likely voters. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA A lot 60 54 54 Some 25 31 33 Only a little 11 10 11 None 4 4 2 Most people do not vote in every election. How likely is it that you will vote in the Presidential election in November - would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, possibly not vote, or definitely not vote? Definitely Vote 100 100 100 Probably vote Possibly not vote Definitely not vote DK/NA 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Candidate names ROTATED) (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Candidate names ROTATED) RESULTS INCLUDE LEANERS Obama 51 50 53 Romney 45 44 42 Someone else (vol.) 1 1 1 DK/NA 4 4 4 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA 1a.(If candidate chosen in Q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? 7/24-30/12 FL Obama voters Romney voters OH Obama voters Romney voters PA Obama voters Romney voters Mind made up 89 89 90 87 86 89 87 84 90 Might change mind 10 11 10 12 13 10 12 15 9 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 Questions Q2 and Q3 ROTATED 2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Favorable 41 40 39 Unfavorable 42 43 47 Haven't heard enough 14 15 11 DK/NA 3 3 3 3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Favorable 50 51 53 Unfavorable 46 45 42 Haven't heard enough 2 2 2 DK/NA 2 2 3 4a. & 4b. (If candidate chosen in Q1) Thinking about your vote for president, would you describe your support for [SELECTED CANDIDATE] as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike [SELECTED CANDIDATE]? Strongly favor 7/24-30/12 FL 58 Obama voters 65 Romney voters 49 OH 52 Obama voters 60 Romney voters 42 PA 51 Obama voters 59 Romney voters 41 Like with reservations 26 24 29 33 31 35 34 33 37 Dislike other 14 10 19 15 9 22 13 7 22 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 FLORIDA: 5. Turning to this year's general election for United States Senator from Florida, if the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Connie Mack the Republican and Bill Nelson the Democrat, for whom would you vote? As of today, do you lean more toward Mack or Nelson? (Candidate names ROTATED) RESULTS INCLUDE LEANERS 7/24-30/12 Mack 40 Nelson 47 Someone else (vol.) 1 DK/NA 12 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor? 7/24-30/12 Approve 36 Disapprove 52 DK/NA 13 OHIO: 5. Turning to this year's general election for United States Senator from Ohio, if the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Brown or Mandel? (Candidate names ROTATED) RESULTS INCLUDE LEANERS 7/24-30/12 Brown 51 Mandel 39 Someone else (vol.) 1 DK/NA 9 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Kasich is handling his job as Governor? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 7/24-30/12 47 38 15 PENNSYLVANIA: 5. Turning to this year's general election for United States Senator from Pennsylvania, if the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Tom Smith the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey Jr. or Smith? RESULTS INCLUDE LEANERS 7/24-30/12 Casey 55 Smith 37 Someone else (vol.) DK/NA 8 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 7/24-30/12 38 45 17 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 7/24-30/12 FL 48 48 4 OH 48 48 3 PA 49 46 4 8. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you ROTATE OPTION LIST (national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else?) National security Economy Health care Budget deficit Taxes Immigration Something else DK/NA FL 3 52 22 9 5 2 5 2 OH 4 48 20 12 5 2 7 2 PA 3 54 20 8 6 1 7 2 9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election -- are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA More 32 32 29 Less 19 21 22 Same 49 47 49 DK/NA 1 - 10. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Better 26 26 20 Worse 41 39 39 Same 32 34 39 DK/NA 1 1 2 11. Do you think (Ohio's/Florida's/Pennsylvania's) economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Better 23 33 16 Worse 32 26 32 Same 43 40 49 DK/NA 2 1 3 Questions Q12 and Q13 ROTATED 12. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Does 55 55 58 Does not 42 43 39 DK/NA 3 2 3 13. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Does 42 38 39 Does not 49 55 54 DK/NA 9 7 7 14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? (Candidate names ROTATED) 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Obama 45 46 48 Romney 47 45 44 DK/NA 9 8 7 15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? (Candidate names ROTATED) 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Obama 50 48 51 Romney 42 42 41 DK/NA 8 9 8 16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on national security - Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? (Candidate names ROTATED) 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Obama 48 50 50 Romney 44 41 40 DK/NA 8 9 9 Questions Q17 and Q18 ROTATED 17. If Barack Obama is reelected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Help 23 26 23 Hurt 38 38 37 No difference 36 34 37 DK/NA 3 1 3 18. If Mitt Romney is elected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Help 31 26 26 Hurt 30 37 32 No difference 34 34 37 DK/NA 4 4 5 19. From what you have read or heard, does Mitt Romney have the right kind of business experience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney's kind of business experience too focused on making profits? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Right kind of experience 42 41 42 Too focused on profits 48 50 51 DK/NA 10 9 8 20. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will. Improving now 25 24 21 Will improve 30 30 35 No improvement 43 44 42 Made worse (vol.) 1 DK/ NA 1 1 1 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA 21. Do you think presidential candidates should publicly release several years of tax returns, or is releasing only one or two years of tax returns necessary, or don't you think it is necessary for presidential candidates to release any of their tax returns? Should release several years 53 51 54 Should release 1-2 years 19 18 17 Not necessary 23 28 25 DK/ NA 5 3 4 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA 22. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Support 58 60 62 Oppose 37 37 34 DK/NA 6 3 3 23. How important will television campaign ads be to your vote for president this year? Very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Very 10 8 7 Somewhat 14 14 14 Not so 17 20 23 Not at all 58 58 56 DK/NA 1 - Questions Q24 and Q25 ROTATED Have you seen any commercials on television for Mitt Romney, or not? IF YES, ASK: Did most of Mitt Romney's television commercials spend more time explaining what Mitt Romney stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Barack Obama? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes, explained 20 21 18 Yes, attacked 62 62 51 No, haven't seen 8 7 21 DK/NA 10 9 10 Have you seen any commercials on television for Barack Obama, or not? IF YES, ASK: Did most of Barack Obama's television commercials spend more time explaining what Barack Obama stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Mitt Romney? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes, explained 24 28 24 Yes, attacked 57 55 50 No, haven't seen 7 7 16 DK/NA 12 10 10 Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Republican 27 27 32 Democrat 36 35 38 Independent 32 32 26 Other 4 4 3 DK/NA 1 1 1 IF REPUBLICAN: Do you consider yourself a strong Republican or not a strong Republican? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Strong Republican 67 59 63 Not strong 28 39 35 DK/NA 5 2 2 IF DEMOCRAT: Do you consider yourself a strong Democrat or not a strong Democrat? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Strong Democrat 73 68 66 Not strong 26 31 32 DK/NA 1 1 1 IF INDEPENDENT: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican party or the Democratic party? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Republican 39 37 33 Democrat 38 38 48 Neither (vol.) 22 21 18 DK/NA 1 3 2 How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally do you think of yourself as liberal, moderate, or conservative? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Liberal 17 21 20 Moderate 40 39 43 Conservative 38 35 35 DK/NA 5 4 2 Are you registered as a Republican, Democrat, some other party, or are you not affiliated with any party? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Rep 36 35 40 Dem 42 42 46 Other party 1 1 Indep/Unaffiliated/No party 20 20 11 DK/NA 1 2 1 Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes 13 13 11 No 83 83 87 DK/NA 4 4 2 Did you vote for President in 2008, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote for President in 2008? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Voted 92 89 92 Didn't vote 4 7 5 Couldn't/Ineligible (Vol.) 3 3 2 DK/NA 1 Did you vote for Barack Obama, John McCain, or someone else? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Obama 53 53 54 McCain 40 38 40 Someone else 4 5 3 DK/NA 3 4 3 Are you currently married? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes 53 54 58 No 47 45 41 DK/NA - Do you have any children under the age of 18? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes 23 25 28 No 77 74 71 DK/NA - Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes 10 23 22 No 90 76 77 DK/NA 1 1 What is your religious preference? Is it Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, Mormon, Muslim, some other religion, or don't you belong to any religious denomination? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Protestant 42 47 40 Catholic 22 23 33 Jewish 6 1 3 Mormon Muslim 1 Other 9 7 5 None 18 16 15 DK/NA 3 4 3 Would you consider yourself a born-again Christian or evangelical Christian, or wouldn't you consider yourself either of those? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes 32 32 26 No 38 42 50 DK/NA 3 3 2 Not asked 27 22 22 Are you of Latino or Hispanic origin, such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban or any other Spanish speaking background? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Yes 12 2 3 No 87 98 96 DK/NA 1 1 Do you identify yourself as white, black, Asian or some other race? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA White 77 84 83 Black 13 11 11 Asian 1 1 Other 7 3 4 DK/NA 1 1 2 In what year were you born? 7/24-30/12 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ FL 12 15 43 31 OH 13 18 47 22 PA 8 21 43 28 Education question series: Did you receive a high school diploma? IF RECEIVED HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA: Did you ever attend college? IF "YES": Did you graduate? IF ATTENDED COLLEGE: Was this from a 4-year college, a junior college/two year program, or a vocational/technical school? IF ATTENDED/GRADUATED FOUR YEAR COLLEGE: Did you ever attend graduate school? IF "YES": Did you receive a graduate degree? 7/24-30/12 Less than HS High School Some College College Grad Some Grad School Post Grad Degree FL 8 16 44 15 4 13 OH 7 21 43 11 5 12 PA 5 23 38 14 4 16 About what do you think your total Will it be ... FL Less than $15,000 10 Between $15,000 and $30,000 16 Between $30,000 and $50,000 22 Between $50,000 and $100,000 25 Or over $100,000 16 DK/NA 11 household income will be this year? OH 12 16 19 24 17 12 PA 6 16 19 27 20 11 IF INCOME OVER $100,000: Would you say that your total household income will be under $250,000, or $250,000 or more? 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Less than $250,000 84 82 84 $250,000 or more 13 17 15 DK/NA 3 1 2 7/24-30/12 FL OH PA Male 46 48 48 Female 54 52 52