MANITOBA [MARCH 15, 2016] EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST, MARCH 15, 2016 PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC. Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,764 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on March 12th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.33%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.34%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.26%; ; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census. A2 "Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”. 40% OF MANITOBANS SAY A GOOD SOCIAL MEDIA HISTORY IS ‘VERY IMPORTANT’ March 15, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Manitobans are much less likely to vote for candidates who make offensive remarks - 65% say it’s either somewhat or very important that candidates not have made offensive remarks. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/2.33%, 19 times out of 20. “To a certain extent there will be some social desirability bias in these numbers,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “These numbers validate why political parties drop candidates embroiled in these types of controversies. The individual circumstances matter of course, as well as how offensive the remarks were and what actions were taken afterward.” “Only a very small percentage of voters, almost as small as the margin of error, say offensive remarks on social media would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. 1 in 4 Manitobans say the behaviour would have no effect.” “We asked Manitobans which party was best to continue important government spending while eliminating waste. The PCs lead with 41%, that’s 6% higher than their horserace number from the same poll. The NDP over perform their horserace number by 3%, the Liberals match their horserace number of 16%.” “Almost 1 in 2 Manitobans (47%) support higher taxes for high income earners. Perhaps not surprisingly it’s the NDP that performs best with this group when we look at the party affiliation breakdowns. But many of these voters are also choosing the PC party (21%),” Maggi finished. About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. -30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca A3 When it comes to finding the right balance between cutting wasteful government spending and continuing government spending on important services, who do you trust to do a better job? 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Manitoba Winnipeg 16% 3% 14% 55% 13% 18% 3% 18% 33% 28% 17% 3% 16% 41% 0 22% 5 Rest of Manitoba A4 When it comes to finding the right balance between cutting wasteful government spending and continuing government spending on important services, who do you trust to do a better job? 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female NDP 30% 15% 23% 19% 20% 24% PC 35% 45% 41% 47% 49% 34% Liberal 16% 20% 16% 13% 15% 18% Green 4% 3% 2% 4% 1% 5% Undecided 16% 18% 18% 18% 16% 19% Sample 213 372 534 645 780 984 Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB NDP 22% 28% 13% PC 41% 33% 55% Liberal 16% 18% 14% Green 3% 3% 3% Undecided 17% 18% 16% Sample 1764 862 902 A5 Should High-Income Earners be taxed more, be taxed less or continue to be charged the current rate? 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female More 36% 50% 56% 47% 51% 42% Less 16% 11% 8% 8% 11% 11% The Same 31% 28% 27% 31% 28% 30% Not Sure 18% 12% 9% 15% 10% 17% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB More 47% 49% 42% Less 11% 11% 12% The Same 29% 26% 34% Not Sure 13% 14% 12% A6 If a candidate made sexist or homophobic remarks on social media, how would it affect your vote? 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Less Likely 60% 61% 58% 47% 60% 55% More Likely 0% 4% 2% 4% 4% 1% No Effect 31% 18% 28% 27% 27% 26% Not Sure 10% 17% 12% 21% 9% 19% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB Less Likely 57% 56% 59% More Likely 3% 3% 3% No Effect 26% 27% 25% Not Sure 14% 15% 13% A7 And how important is it to you that a candidate not have made embarrassing or offensive remarks on social media? 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Very 27% 48% 43% 46% 32% 47% Somewhat 28% 21% 28% 21% 26% 23% Not Too 35% 13% 20% 18% 24% 21% Not At All 6% 10% 4% 6% 10% 3% Not Sure 6% 8% 5% 9% 8% 5% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB Very 40% 38% 43% Somewhat 25% 24% 26% Not Too 22% 24% 20% Not At All 7% 7% 6% Not Sure 7% 7% 6% A6 PARTY AFFILIATION VS GOVERNMENT SPENDING 76% of voters who believe the NDP are the best fiscal managers are voting NDP NDP 76% PC Liberal 80% 10% 72% Undecided 6% 0 15% 25% 10% 10 20 9% 73% 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 NDP PC Liberal 76% 1% 1% 6% PC 3% 80% 2% 3% Liberal 2% 4% 72% 10% Green 4% 4% 0% 9% Undecided 15% 10% 25% 73% NDP Undecided A6 PARTY AFFILIATION VS TAXES ON HIGH INCOME HOUSEHOLDS 21% of Voters who want to increase taxes on high income earners are voting PC More 26% 21% Less 18% The Same 8% 29% 49% 5% 59% Not Sure 18% 0 22% 10 10% 21% 20 18% 30 40 25% 9% 15% 6% 37% 50 60 70 80 90 More Less The Same NDP 26% 18% 8% 18% PC 21% 49% 59% 21% Liberal 22% 5% 10% 18% Green 2% 3% 9% 6% 29% 25% 15% 37% Undecided 100 Not Sure A6 PARTY AFFILIATION VS OFFENSIVE SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT Less 19% 36% More 20% No Effect 17% 10 7% 23% 52% 18% 32% Not Sure 21% 0 15% 19% 31% 20 30 30% 14% 40 50 8% 30% 60 70 80 90 Less More No Effect NDP 19% 20% 17% 21% PC 36% 52% 32% 31% Liberal 15% 18% 19% 14% Green 7% 2% 2% 3% 23% 8% 30% 30% Undecided 100 Not Sure A6 PARTY AFFILIATION VS OFFENSIVE SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT Important 19% 36% Not Important 21% Not Sure 11% 0 10 15% 33% 20% 29% 12% 20 30 5% 25% 40 50 24% 10% 38% 60 70 80 90 100 Important Not Important Not Sure NDP 19% 21% 11% PC 36% 33% 29% Liberal 15% 20% 12% Green 5% 2% 10% Undecided 25% 24% 38% A8 SCRIPT When it comes to finding the right balance between cutting wasteful government spending and continuing government spending on important services, who do you trust to do a better job? The NDP led by Greg Selinger The Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister The Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari TheGreen Party led James Beddome Undecided Should High-Income Earners be taxed more, be taxed less or continue to be charged the current rate? Support taxing high-income earners more Support taxing high-income earners less Support taxing high-income earners the current rate Not Sure If a candidate made sexist or homophobic remarks on social media, how would it affect your vote? It would make you less likely to vote for the candidate It would make you more likely to vote for the candidate It would have no effect on your vote Not sure And how important is it to you that a candidate not have made embarrassing or offensive remarks on social media? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Not sure ONLY WE CALLED THE LIBERAL MAJORITY. “I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted. Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls. His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015 Mainstreet Research 132−2255B Queen Street East Toronto Ontario M4E 1G3 Canada Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE mainstreetresearch.ca TWITTER @MainStResearch FACEBOOK fb.com/mainstresearch © 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved