Conducted by the
University of New Hampshire
Survey Center
Interviews with 751 adults in New Hampshire conducted by
land line and cellular telephone on February 2-4, 2016
including 287 who say they plan to vote in the Republican
presidential primary and 312 respondents who say they plan
to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The margin
of sampling error for results based on Republican primary
voters is plus or minus 5.8 percentage points and for results
based on Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 5.5
percentage points.

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE:
Friday, February 5 at 5:00 p.m.

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

-1-

January/February, 2016

 1.

(UNDECLARED / INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS ONLY) “"Which Presidential primary
election do you think you will vote in ... the Republican Primary or the Democratic Primary?"
PROBE: “As of RIGHT NOW, which primary do you think you will vote in?”
Dec.
2015
48%
38%
14%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
UNDECIDED
2.

Jan.
Jan
Jan 2927-30 28-31 Feb 1
47%
46% 43%
42%
43% 45%
11%
11% 12%

EARLY
Feb
2-4
46%
44%
10%

FULL
Feb
2-4
46%
46%
9%

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Have you definitely decided who you will vote for
in the New Hampshire primary … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some
candidates but are still trying to decide?”
June
2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED
8%
LEANING TOWARD SOMEONE 17%
STILL TRYING TO DECIDE
75%

3.

Jan.
13-18
44%
48%
8%

Sept
2015
13%
28%
59%

Dec
2015
18%
26%
56%

Jan
13-18
31%
26%
43%

Jan.
27-30
39%
24%
37%

Jan
28-31
37%
24%
39%

Jan 29Feb 1
36%
23%
41%

EARLY FULL
Feb
Feb
2-4
2-4
41%
45%
25%
26%
34%
30%

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) "I’m going to read you the names of the candidates
who are running for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held
today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination Jeb Bush … Ben
Carson … Chris Christie … Ted Cruz … Carly Fiorina … Jim Gilmore … John Kasich … Marco
Rubio … Donald Trump … or someone else?" ROTATE CANDIDATES

DONALD TRUMP
MARCO RUBIO
TED CRUZ
JOHN KASICH
JEB BUSH
CARLY FIORINA
CHRIS CHRISTIE
BEN CARSON
JIM GILMORE
BOB EHRLICH
MARK EVERSON
LINDSEY GRAHAM
MIKE HUCKABEE
BOBBY JINDAL
PETER KING
GEORGE PATAKI
RAND PAUL
RICK PERRY
RICK SANTORUM
SCOTT WALKER
SOMEONE ELSE
DK / NOT SURE
CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

June
2015
11%
6%
3%
2%
16%
6%
5%
5%
0%
0%
--1%
2%
*
0%
1%
9%
4%
0%
8%
1%
21%

Sept.
2015
26%
9%
5%
7%
7%
16%
5%
8%
1%
--0%
1%
*
0%
--*
3%
--*
*
*
11%

Dec.
2015
32%
14%
6%
7%
8%
5%
9%
5%
*
----1%
1%
----0%
2%
--*
--0%
9%

Jan.
13-18
34%
10%
14%
6%
10%
4%
6%
3%
*
---1%
---6%
-0%
-*
6%
-2-

Jan
27-30
30%
11%
12%
9%
6%
4%
8%
3%
0%
---1%
---3%
-0%
-3%
10%

Jan
28-31
29%
11%
13%
9%
7%
5%
9%
3%
0%
---1%
---4%
-0%
-2%
7%

Jan 29Feb 1
29%
11%
12%
10%
9%
4%
9%
2%
0%
---1%
---4%
-0%
-2%
9%

EARLY
Feb
2-4
29%
18%
13%
12%
10%
4%
4%
2%
0%
-----------2%
8%

FULL
Feb
2-4
28%
17%
13%
13%
9%
5%
4%
1%
0%
-----------2%
8%

January/February, 2016

 4.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Which of the candidates who are running for the
Republican nomination would you NOT vote for under any circumstance?”
June
2015
DONALD TRUMP
23%
TED CRUZ
4%
JEB BUSH
10%
MARCO RUBIO
2%
CHRIS CHRISTIE
10%
CARLY FIORINA
*
JIM GILMORE
0%
BEN CARSON
0%
JOHN KASICH
*
BOB EHRLICH
1%
MARK EVERSON
--LINDSEY GRAHAM 2%
MIKE HUCKABEE 3%
BOBBY JINDAL
2%
PETER KING
1%
GEORGE PATAKI 2%
RAND PAUL
3%
RICK PERRY
1%
RICK SANTORUM 2%
SCOTT WALKER
2%
SOMEONE ELSE
1%
NONE / ALL OK
13%
DK / NOT SURE
19%

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

Sept.
2015
25%
3%
11%
0%
5%
1%
1%
1%
*
--1%
4%
8%
1%
--2%
10%
--2%
*
0%
10%
15%

Dec.
2015
26%
3%
11%
1%
6%
4%
2%
5%
2%
----3%
4%
----2%
7%
--3%
--1%
11%
9%

Jan.
13-18
30%
4%
18%
4%
9%
4%
3%
2%
2%
---2%
---5%
-1%
-*
10%
6%

-3-

Jan
27-30
35%
9%
12%
3%
3%
2%
1%
2%
2%
---1%
---4%
-1%
-1%
14%
9%

Jan
Jan 2928-31 Feb 1
36%
31%
9%
10%
11%
9%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
2%
3%
3%
4%
------1%
1%
------5%
6%
--2%
2%
--1%
1%
14%
15%
9%
10%

EARLY
Feb
2-4
37%
13%
7%
5%
3%
2%
3%
3%
1%
-----------1%
13%
11%

FULL
Feb
2-4
36%
14%
9%
5%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
-----------2%
13%
10%

January/February, 2016

 5.

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:) “Regardless of who you are voting for, which
candidate do you think is most likely to win the New Hampshire Republican primary?” 
  

DONALD TRUMP
TED CRUZ
MARCO RUBIO
JEB BUSH
JOHN KASICH
CHRIS CHRISTIE
CARLY FIORINA
BEN CARSON
JIM GILMORE
MARK EVERSON
LINDSEY GRAHAM
MIKE HUCKABEE
BOBBY JINDAL
GEORGE PATAKI
RAND PAUL
RICK SANTORUM
SCOTT WALKER
SOMEONE ELSE
DK / NOT SURE

CNN/WMUR/UNH Tracking Poll

Sept
2015
40%
*
5%
12%
3%
2%
8%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
*
0%
24%

Dec.
2015
59%
2%
6%
4%
1%
6%
1%
1%
0%
--0%
*
--0%
1%
0%
--0%
20%

-4-

Jan.
27-30
66%
6%
2%
2%
1%
1%
*
1%
0%
--0%
--1%
0%
-1%
19%

Jan
28-31
69%
4%
4%
2%
1%
1%
*
1%
0%
--0%
--1%
0%
-2%
17%

Jan 29Feb 1
70%
3%
4%
2%
1%
1%
*
0%
0%
--0%
--1%
0%
-2%
17%

EARLY
Feb
2-4
61%
11%
9%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
0%
--------*
17%

FULL
Feb
2-4
63%
11%
8%
1%
1%
*
*
0%
0%
--------*
16%

January/February, 2016