REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION SURVEY
ARIZONA
N=677 Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters
MoE +/-3.77%

METHODOLOGY
Silver Bullet has conducted a survey of likely Republican Presidential Primary voters in Arizona. The survey used IVR
technology to gather responses from a random sample of registered voters who stated that they were very likely or
somewhat likely to vote in the Republican Presidential Primary Election in 2016. The random sample of voters was used
to generate results that mirrored the gender, age and geographic demographics among registered Republican voters in
Arizona so that post-survey stratification required minimal weighting. Gender, age and geography were weighted based
on voter registration percentages among Republican voters in previous Republican Presidential Primaries.
No partial surveys were accepted into the sample. Respondents were contacted by landline telephone and responded
to an automated survey on August 3rd, 2015. The survey has a sample size of 677 likely Republican Presidential Primary
voters in Arizona. The margin of error is +3.77% with a 95% confidence interval.

Silver Bullet

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CONFIDENTIAL

 Arizona

Republican Presidential Primary Election Survey

Hello, tonight we are conducting a brief scientific of voter in Arizona about the 2016 presidential election and we would
like to get your opinions.
1.

To begin, how likely would you say you are to vote in the Republican Presidential Primary election on March
22nd, 2016? For very likely, press one. For somewhat likely, press two. For somewhat unlikely, press three. For
very unlikely, press four.
1.
2.
3.
4.

2.

Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely

96%
4%
END
END

Thank you, and if the Republican Presidential Primary election were held today, for whom would you vote? For
Jeb Bush, press one. For Donald Trump, press two. For Scott Walker, press three. For Ted Cruz, press four. For
Marco Rubio, press five. For Rand Paul, press six. For Mike Huckabee, press seven. For Ben Carson, press eight.
For another candidate not listed here, press nine. If you are undecided or would rather not say, press zero.
IF ANOTHER CANDIDATE: Thank you, if you did not hear your preferred choice in the first list of candidates,
please select instead from the following. For Chris Christie, press one. For John Kasich, press two. For Rick
Perry, press three. For Carly Fiorina, press four. For Bobby Jindal, press five. For Lindsay Graham, press six. For
George Pataki, press seven. For Jim Gilmore, press eight. If you are undecided or would rather not say, press
zero.
IF UNDECIDED: And if you had to choose today, if you would lean toward Jeb Bush, press one. If you would lean
toward Donald Trump, press two. For Scott Walker, press three. For Ted Cruz, press four. For Marco Rubio,
press five. For Rand Paul, press six. For Mike Huckabee, press seven. For Ben Carson, press eight. If you are
still undecided or would rather not say, press zero.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

Jeb Bush
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
Chris Christies
John Kasich
Rick Perry
Carly Fiorina
Bobby Jindal
Lindsay Graham
George Pataki
Jim Gilmore
Hard Undecided/Refused

17%
33%
13%
5%
4%
1%
2%
10%
1%
5%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
7%
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 Arizona

Republican Presidential Primary Election Survey
3.

Thank you, and who would you most like to see as the Vice Presidential running mate in the presidential
election? For Jeb Bush, press one. For Donald Trump, press two. For Scott Walker, press three. For Ted Cruz,
press four. For Marco Rubio, press five. For Rand Paul, press six. For Mike Huckabee, press seven. For Ben
Carson, press eight. For another person not listed here, press nine. If you don’t know or would rather not say,
press zero.
IF ANOTHER PERSON: Thank you, if you did not hear your preferred choice in the first list of possible vice
presidential candidates, please select instead from the following. For Chris Christie, press one. For John Kasich,
press two. For Rick Perry, press three. For Carly Fiorina, press four. For Bobby Jindal, press five. For Lindsay
Graham, press six. For George Pataki, press seven. For Jim Gilmore, press eight. For another person not listed
here, press nine. If you are undecided or would rather not say, press zero.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.

4.

Jeb Bush
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
Chris Christies
John Kasich
Rick Perry
Carly Fiorina
Bobby Jindal
Lindsay Graham
George Pataki
Jim Gilmore
Someone Else
Undecided/Refused

5%
11%
18%
16%
14%
4%
3%
7%
1%
1%
0%
3%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
15%

Thank you. And now we have just two more questions for demographic purposes. First, if you are male, press
one. If you are female, press two.
1.
2.

Male
Female

48%
52%

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 Arizona

Republican Presidential Primary Election Survey
5.

And for the final question, which of the following broad categories best describes your age? If you are 18-34,
press one. If you are 35-44, press two. If you are 45-54, press three. If you are 55-64, press four. If you are 65
or over, press five.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

6.

18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

18%
14%
19%
20%
29%

Congressional District [FROM FILE].
1.
2.
3.

CDs 1-3
CDs 4-6
CDs 7-9

36%
35%
29%

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