International Travel and Migration: June 2015 Embargoed until 10:45am – 21 July 2015 Key facts In June 2015 compared with June 2014:   Visitor arrivals (177,000) were up 14,800. The biggest changes were in arrivals from: o Australia (up 8,500) o China (up 3,600) o the United States (up 2,300). Overseas trips by New Zealand residents (220,800) were up 14,200. The biggest changes were in departures to: o o o Australia (up 8,300) the United States (up 1,600) Fiji (up 1,500). In June 2015, seasonally adjusted figures showed a net gain of 4,800 migrants. See the commentary and tables for more information, including annual results. Colin Lynch, Acting Government Statistician ISSN 1179-0407 21 July 2015 Commentary       Visitor arrivals up 9 percent in June Annual visitor numbers increase from China, Australia, and the US More overseas trips by New Zealand residents in June Trips by New Zealand residents up 4 percent in the June 2015 year Monthly net gain of migrants remains high Annual net gain of 58,300 migrants Visitor arrivals up 9 percent in June Overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 177,000 in June 2015, an increase of 14,800 (9 percent) from June 2014. The latest figure is the highest visitor total for a June month. Visitor arrivals by country of residence The biggest changes in visitors by country of residence between June 2014 and June 2015 were in arrivals from:    Australia (up 8,500) China (up 3,600) the United States (up 2,300). The increase from Australia included more visitors from Victoria (up 3,000), New South Wales (up 2,700), and Queensland (up 2,000). Visitor arrivals by travel purpose The biggest changes in visitors by travel purpose between June 2014 and June 2015 were in arrivals for:   holidays (up 6,800) visiting friends and relatives (up 4,100). 2 Visitors arriving for holidays numbered 74,500 in June 2015, up 10 percent from June 2014 (67,800). This was primarily driven by more holiday visitors from Australia (up 3,700) and China (up 2,300). Australia also contributed the biggest increase in arrivals to visit friends and relatives, up 3,300 from June 2014. Annual visitor numbers increase from China, Australia, and the US Visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 2.99 million in the June 2015 year, the highest-ever annual total. The latest figure was 7 percent higher than the June 2014 year. Australia (1.29 million), China (313,400), and the United States (233,300) were New Zealand's biggest visitor sources, contributing 61 percent of all arrivals in the June 2015 year. These three countries also provided the biggest increases compared with the June 2014 year, with arrivals from China up 72,900, Australia up 49,900, and the United States up 21,600. For more detailed data about visitor arrivals, see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box. More overseas trips by New Zealand residents in June New Zealand-resident travellers departed on 220,800 overseas trips in June 2015, up 14,200 (7 percent) from June 2014. This is the second-highest June total, just below June 2012 (221,100), when the mid-year school holidays started earlier. Overseas trips by country of main destination The biggest changes in overseas trips by country of main destination (where the person will spend the most time) between June 2014 and June 2015 were in trips to:    Australia (up 8,300) the United States (up 1,600) Fiji (up 1,500). 3 Trips by New Zealand residents up 4 percent in the June 2015 year New Zealand residents departed on 2.34 million overseas trips in the June 2015 year. This was an increase of 98,700 (4 percent) compared with the June 2014 year. Around half of all trips by New Zealand residents were to Australia (1.11 million). The number of trips to Australia increased 46,600 from the June 2014 year. Residents also took more trips to the United States (up 20,600), Fiji (up 15,800), and Indonesia (up 10,100), compared with the June 2014 year. For more detailed data on overseas trips by New Zealand residents, see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box. Monthly net gain of migrants remains high Seasonally adjusted permanent and long-term (PLT) migration figures showed a net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 4,800 migrants in June 2015. Net migration has been fluctuating around this level for 11 months, recently peaking at 5,500 in January 2015. This was the third month in a row that there has been a seasonally adjusted net gain of 100 migrants from Australia. Before April 2015, there had not been a net gain in migrants from Australia in over 20 years (since 1991). Annual net gain of 58,300 migrants Unadjusted figures showed a record net gain of 58,300 migrants in the June 2015 year. The annual gain in migrants has been setting new records for the last 11 months. The increased net gain of migrants in the June 2015 year was driven by both more arrivals and fewer departures. Migrant arrivals continued to reach new highs (115,700), up 15 percent from the June 2014 year. Migrant departures numbered 57,400, down 8 percent. 4 Almost two-thirds (64 percent) of arriving migrants were aged 15–34 years. Another 13 percent were aged under 15 years, 13 percent were aged 35–49 years, and 10 percent were aged 50 years or more. Departing migrants had a similar age distribution, but were slightly less concentrated in the 15–34-year age group (59 percent). PLT migration by country of residence The increase in migrant arrivals between the June 2014 and June 2015 years was led by India, Australia, China, and the Philippines. The increase in arrivals from Australia was both New Zealand citizens and non-New Zealand citizens. The fall in migrant departures was mainly due to fewer New Zealand citizens leaving for Australia. Departures of New Zealand citizens to Australia fell 19 percent to 21,800 in the June 2015 year. This is less than half as many as the record 48,800 departures in the December 2012 year. The net loss of people to Australia has decreased from a record 40,000 people in the August 2012 year to just 1,200 people in the June 2015 year. The latest figure is the smallest annual net loss to Australia since 1991. New Zealand recorded net gains of migrants from most other countries in the June 2015 year, led by:     India (12,000) China (8,000) the Philippines (4,300) the United Kingdom (4,300). PLT migrant arrivals by visa type The biggest changes in migrant arrivals by visa type between the June 2014 and June 2015 years were:    student visas (up 7,700) work visas (up 4,100) New Zealand and Australian citizens (up 2,100). A total of 25,800 migrants arrived on student visas in the June 2015 year. Most of the arriving students were from India (10,100) and China (4,900). Migrants arriving on work visas numbered 35,200 in the June 2015 year, with the United Kingdom being the biggest source (6,100). Arrivals on work visas include working holidaymakers. Arrivals of New Zealand and Australian citizens, who do not have to apply for a visa, numbered 34,900 in the June 2015 year. Another 13,800 migrants arrived on residence visas. Most migrants gain New Zealand residence after, rather than before, arrival. Many arrive on temporary visas (eg work, student) and transfer to a residence visa after spending time in New Zealand. 5 PLT migration by New Zealand region All regions had a net gain of international migrants in the June 2015 year, led by Auckland (26,800), Canterbury (6,400), and Waikato (2,300). Half of all migrants who stated an address on their arrival card were moving to the Auckland region. Of those who stated an address on their departure card, 42 percent were migrating from the Auckland region. In comparison, the Auckland region is home to 34 percent of New Zealand's population (at 30 June 2014). For more detailed data about permanent and long-term migration, see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box. 6 Definitions About the international travel and migration statistics International travel and migration statistics count passengers arriving into and departing from New Zealand. Passengers are split into one of three passenger types: overseas visitors, New Zealand-resident travellers, and permanent and long-term migrants. Arrivals and departures of overseas visitors and New Zealand-resident travellers are key indicators of tourism and travel. Permanent and long-term migration is a component of New Zealand’s population change, along with births and deaths. Migration affects the composition of the population as well as population size. More definitions Citizenship: determined from the country that issued the passport the person uses when arriving or departing. A person may hold passports from more than one country. Country of main destination: the country where a New Zealand-resident traveller will spend the most time while overseas. Departure cards do not ask travellers which other countries they intend to visit on the same trip. Country of residence: this is the country where the person last lived or will next live for 12 months or more. New Zealand region: the area in New Zealand containing the residential or contact address stated on a passenger's arrival or departure card. Regional council areas are approximated by grouping territorial authority (city and district council) areas. Where a territorial authority area is split across regional council areas, it is fully included in the region that most of its population lives in. New Zealand-resident travellers: people who live in New Zealand and are travelling overseas for less than 12 months. Overseas visitors: people who live overseas and are visiting New Zealand for less than 12 months. Passenger type: each passenger is classed as an overseas visitor, a New Zealand-resident traveller, or a permanent and long-term migrant. Passenger type is not related to legal permanent residence in a country or the visa type a person holds. It is based on the time spent in and out of New Zealand. This is primarily determined from responses on the arrival and departure cards to questions about how long the person is in or away from New Zealand, and where they are living for 12 months or more. Permanent and long-term arrivals (migrant arrivals): people from overseas arriving to live in New Zealand for 12 months or more (including permanently), and New Zealanders returning after an absence of 12 months or more overseas. Permanent and long-term departures (migrant departures): New Zealanders departing for an absence of 12 months or more (including permanently), and migrants leaving after a stay of 12 months or more in New Zealand. 7 Travel purpose: the main purpose for the visit to New Zealand or trip overseas. Categories are holiday, visiting friends and relatives, business, conferences and conventions, education, and other. Visa type: the type of immigration visa held or granted on arrival in New Zealand. People may change their visa type later while still in New Zealand. 8 Related links Next release International Travel and Migration: July 2015 will be released on 21 August 2015. Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. You can also subscribe to receive International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand, and our weekly provisional international travel statistics. The release calendar lists all information releases by date of release. Past releases International Travel and Migration has links to past releases. Related information Information about international travel International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand contains detailed tables about the number and characteristics of visitor arrivals. It is released two working days after each International Travel and Migration information release. Provisional international travel statistics provide the latest weekly and four-weekly figures for visitor arrivals and New Zealand-resident traveller departures, including figures for 10 major source and destination countries. These are released weekly, usually at 2pm on a Friday. International travel and migration articles are occasional publications that provide analyses of selected topics. Statistics NZ's Tourism web page lists tourism-related data sources, such as the Accommodation Survey and the Tourism Satellite Account. Tourism research and data from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment includes results from the International Visitor Survey, Domestic Travel Survey, and tourism forecasts. Tourism New Zealand provides guides to New Zealand's key tourism markets, which include the outlook for future months. Cruise New Zealand data has figures on cruise ship visits and cruise passengers. This includes passengers considered to be 'in transit' by the Immigration Act 2009, who are not included in international travel and migration statistics. Information about international migration International travel and migration articles are occasional publications that provide analyses of selected topics. 9 Statistics NZ's Migration web page lists migration-related data sources, such as the Longitudinal Immigration Survey. Labour and Immigration Research Centre, part of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, publishes research reports and information about the immigration research programme. Immigration New Zealand statistics include application and approval numbers for the main immigration visa types. 10 Data quality Period-specific information  More countries to be added to International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand report General information       Data source Accuracy of the data Interpreting the data Timing of published data Confidentiality More information Period-specific information More countries to be added to International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand report Beginning with the release of July 2015 data on 25 August, the International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand report will include detailed information for more top source countries and states/provinces. We are adding data for:        Malaysia France Taiwan South Australia Shanghai Guangdong Beijing. The International Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand report contains detailed tables and graphs about visitor arrivals, and is released two working days after each International Travel and Migration release. General information Data source International travel and migration statistics are based on electronic arrival and departure records for each international passenger, supplied to Statistics NZ by the New Zealand Customs Service. These electronic records include flight and passport details, such as date of travel, date of birth, sex, and country of citizenship. The New Zealand Customs Service also supplies Statistics NZ with arrival and departure cards completed by passengers. Statistics NZ captures additional detail such as country of residence and travel purpose from these cards, and adds it to the information from electronic records. Immigration New Zealand owns the arrival and departure cards, which are used to administer numerous New Zealand laws in addition to producing statistics. Statistics NZ only captures 11 information from the cards for statistical purposes, and passes the cards to Immigration New Zealand after it has captured the data. See the arrival card (PDF, 84kb). See the departure card. These are for reference only. Accuracy of the data Data collection Statistics NZ scans every arrival and departure card, and uses image recognition technology to automatically recognise and code responses. Processing staff then manually capture any required information not captured automatically – as automated software cannot clearly recognise every response. The imaging system automatically determines all of the information required for around 9 in every 10 cards, meaning about 1 million records are completed manually each year. Some response fields are required from every card. These include passport number and birth date, which are used to match each card with the corresponding electronic record containing flight and passport details. Some fields are only required for certain passenger types, or for a sample of passengers. Changes in recorded passenger intentions Statistics NZ processes all arrivals and departures and allocates them to one of three passenger types: overseas visitors, New Zealand-resident travellers, and permanent and long-term migrants. A person may change their intentions after their arrival or departure, which may mean the recorded passenger type becomes incorrect. Statistics NZ does not revise published statistics for such changes, but advises that the published figures remain a good indicator of trends in permanent and long-term migration. The Alternative methods for measuring permanent and long-term migration article has more detail about the effect of intention changes. Sampling Some fields are only collected for a sample of passengers. Data from the sample is used to estimate the characteristics of the full population. This still provides a good picture of the characteristics of travellers, while greatly decreasing the time and cost of capturing the data. All figures for permanent and long-term migrants are actual counts (not derived from a sample). Arrival and departure totals for overseas visitors and New Zealand-resident travellers are also actual counts. More detailed data for overseas visitors and New Zealand-resident travellers, such as figures by country or travel purpose, are derived from a sample. 12 The sample ratios currently used are:     Overseas visitor arrivals: 1 in 16 Overseas visitor departures: 1 in 26 New Zealand-resident traveller arrivals: 1 in 26 New Zealand-resident traveller departures: 1 in 20. Figures derived from a sample may contain sample error (a difference from the actual figure). Small numbers are more likely to contain a large sample error as a percentage of the actual figure, and should be used with caution. Seasonally adjusted and trend series The purpose of seasonally adjusting a time series is to measure and remove the varying seasonal components in the series (for example, there are more visitor arrivals during the New Zealand summer, due to the warmer weather and longer daylight hours). This makes the data for adjacent periods more comparable. The seasonal adjustment process for international travel and migration statistics uses Statistics NZ's standard seasonal adjustment package, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, with enhancements that allow Statistics NZ to specify and adjust additional calendar effects. These include the number and type of trading days in the month (as more people generally arrive and depart on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday), and holiday periods, which have important effects on travel but can occur in different months each year (eg Easter can be in March or April). Both monthly and quarterly seasonally adjusted series are available. The quarterly series are adjusted independently of the adjustments made to the monthly series. Hence, quarterly figures may not equal the sum of monthly seasonally adjusted figures. Seasonally adjusted and trend data back to January 1996 is subject to revision each period. The size of these revisions is expected to be minimal, with the largest revisions occurring in the periods immediately before the current month or quarter. Data before January 1996 is not revised. This cut-off is used because of the change to a four-term school year in 1996, which resulted in changes to the seasonal patterns of the New Zealand-resident traveller series. Interpreting the data Passenger counts The statistics in this release relate to the number of passenger movements to and from New Zealand, rather than to the number of people – that is, the multiple movements of individual people during a given reference period are each counted separately. For example, a New Zealand resident making five business trips overseas within a year would be counted as five arrivals and five departures. Timing of published data Final international travel and migration statistics: released approximately three weeks after the end of the reference month. This delay is longer for December and January data due to the peak travel period coinciding with the Christmas and New Year holidays. 13 New Zealand and overseas port data: becomes available two working days after the international travel and migration release. Provisional international travel statistics: normally released at 2pm every Friday on the Provisional international travel statistics web page. These show the latest weekly and fourweekly figures for visitor arrivals and New Zealand-resident traveller departures, including figures for 10 major source and destination countries. No further data is available until the monthly release of final statistics. Confidentiality Statistics NZ releases statistics derived from arriving and departing passenger records. It does not release the records of individual passengers. More information International travel and migration in DataInfo+ has more information. DataInfo+ is the main source of information about our statistical activities and data. Statistics in this release have been produced in accordance with the Official Statistics System principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics for quality. They conform to the Statistics NZ Methodological Standard for Reporting of Data Quality. Liability While all care and diligence has been used in processing, analysing, and extracting data and information in this publication, Statistics NZ gives no warranty it is error-free and will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by the use directly, or indirectly, of the information in this publication. Timing Our information releases are delivered electronically by third parties. Delivery may be delayed by circumstances outside our control. Statistics NZ does not accept responsibility for any such delay. Crown copyright© This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. You are free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or governmental emblem, logo, or coat of arms in any way that infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981. Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo. 14 Contacts For media enquiries contact: Melissa McKenzie Christchurch 03 964 8700 Email: info@stats.govt.nz For technical information contact: Melissa McKenzie Christchurch 03 964 8700 Email: info@stats.govt.nz For general enquiries contact our Information Centre: Phone: 0508 525 525 (toll-free in New Zealand) +64 4 931 4600 (outside New Zealand) Email: info@stats.govt.nz Subscription service: Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. Correction notifications: Subscribe to receive an email if a correction notice is published for International Travel and Migration. Unsubscribe to correction notifications for International Travel and Migration. Subscribe to all to receive an email if a correction notice is published for any of our information releases. Unsubscribe to all if you change your mind. 15 Tables See the following Excel tables in the ‘Downloads’ box on this page. If you have problems viewing the files, see opening files and PDFs. 1. International travel and migration, by direction and passenger type, actual counts 2. International travel and migration, by direction and passenger type, seasonally adjusted and trend series 3. Overseas visitor arrivals, by country of last permanent residence 4. Overseas visitor arrivals, by travel purpose and country of last permanent residence 5. New Zealand-resident traveller departures, by country of main destination 6. Permanent and long-term arrivals, by country of last permanent residence 7. Permanent and long-term departures, by country of next permanent residence 8. Net permanent and long-term migration, by country of last/next permanent residence 9. Permanent and long-term migration, by citizenship, actual counts 10. Permanent and long-term migration, by citizenship, seasonally adjusted series 11. Permanent and long-term migration, by New Zealand region 12. Permanent and long-term arrivals, by visa type and country of last permanent residence Access more data on Infoshare Infoshare allows you to organise data in the way that best meets your needs. You can view the resulting tables onscreen or download them. Use Infoshare For this release, select the following categories from the Infoshare homepage: Subject category: Tourism Group: International Travel and Migration Next release International Travel and Migration: July 2015 will be released on 21 August 2015. 16