1. Funding was set aside in the 2009 budget to increase the number of studentsin?QRS. education review that was taking place at the time to decide how this additional run-urn used. 1.1211; e'rn'?'called epyvho had had an ingl?upport were put 2. As the review was not to be completed until the end of 2010,,apj3inte?rim ORS Extension was put into place. 400 students who werepilerthe a unsuccessful 0R8 application and who had been on Supplements into ORS Extension. 312.. 3. When the Special Education review was completed A10 it was agreed that an additional 700 places would be created forinR?s. incl an - 400*?Students in ORS Extension, it was planned that by December 2012?thier-e wo'u'l dilignal 1,125 places in ORS. 4. There was some discussion about??tiihetheg?4 as criteria would be changed to accommodate the additional 1,125 wasdeda additional places could be achieved without ofstu?dents in ORS had been increasing. changing the current bei532012 compared to June 2009 there were an additional 5. This proved to be theil'c'a?serB ?thestudents in ORS Extension. 1,082 students-EQELORS m. ""533?5Total ?ghese number's include 150 students who currently are not enrolled at a school because they are in transition between schools (17) or they are under the age of six and have not yet started school (133). 8. It is anticipated, based on data from previous years, that the number of non-enrolled students likely to remain at this level until the end of the year. Again, based on data from previous years, all but 5% of these students will be under that age of six and will have not yet started school. ENQREASING NUMBERS 9. The annual average rate of increase in ORS numbers since July 2010 has been Year (Juty) Total CTRS1 increase 2010 7,363 2011 7,515 2012 7,619 2013 7,938 2014 - 8,301 Average increase Application or the 0% criteria wannabe a maria softening and 10. The reasons for the increase in ORS numbers are likely to concern if the increase was a consequence of the verifiersl'za?ppItgatgon . letting more students into the scheme who have lesserpe?ed. ed since June 2009 would have 11. if this had occurred, the rate at which applications'hiayebe [age percentage of applications fame" SUbStan?auy. This does not appear tc?gbe?the are declined since 2007 has been 32%. . a occurred between 2013 and 2014 declined by the veritiers, the pped te9.6. This in fact is not the case. While applications declined in 2013 it is likely that the 14 above 30%. 12. lithe increase in the numbers of students was the result of a decrease lathe "parse percentage declined wouldghave?had there was a slight drop indireperc percentage of application'sgdecl 13' one th herritirinber of students in ORS appears to be the increase in the number Oilli?h'siitrat Births Increase compared to 2005 58,105 . 59,563 25 64.503 11.0 64,850 11,6 62,927 8.3 64,315 10.7 14. it is likely that the increase in the total number of births has seen a corresponding increase in the number of children who meet the ORS criteria. The 2007, 2008 and 2009 cohorts have been starting school over the last three years. 1 The number of students in ORS and ORS Extension attending a facility. 15. This appears to be reflected in the increase in the New Zeatand schooi population over. From 1 July 2013 to 1 July 2014 the New Zealand school population increased by 4,858 students. 1% of these students met the 0R8 criteria, this increase would have accounted for an additional 50 students being included in the 0R8. Increase in net: migration 16. In 2013 there was a slight net loss in long term and permanent migration of children between the ages of tiVe and 14. However, for children and young people between the ages of 15 and 21 there was a net gain in migration of 3,586these children and young people met the criteria for ORS, the . 20.1.4. in 2013 would have increased by approximately 35. Migration figures ai?efiiot?av gr but it is likely, based on past trends, a similar net migration gain wil __have 'o,cc Increase in the incidence of nedrodevelopmental conditions 18. The increasing incidence of neurodevelopmental exerting an effect on the number of students in ORS. Neurodevelopmentalconditions pairments of the growth and development of the brain and nervous I jest early in development and result In impairments in social, emotional andvgi?ntelle examples are autism spectrum disorder. attention deficit dis'brd etalalcohol 19. Evidence to support the view thser'eihas?be? ncreasejii.n"the incidence of disability particularly in neurodevetopmental conditiorniscgmes? o, study completed in the United States (Houtrow et al, 2014). manual/rs githe percentage of children with disabilities rose 16% between 2001 and 201 nigger?ig?__sadiia_i?taged children had the highest rates of disability, but economically advantaged} experienced greater increases in disability. Disability due to neurodeveloprnental or?h?i 'l'vh'ela th conditions rose substantially. 20. Estimatingitheeffe? reason these conditions has had on 0R8 numbers is difficult; however nee has been increasing in New Zealand and other countries over the last . ora'utism are conservatively estimated at 1% of the population and foetal i . - incidence is thought to be equal if not greater. ase?in number of ORS applications of ORS applications received to date, it is likely that during 2014, 9% more 131) applications will have been made to the ORS compared to the number of applications received in 2013. 22. The increase in the number of applications received would appear to reflect the affect that the increase in births, the net migrations gains and the increase in the incidence of neurodevelopmental conditions noted above is having on applications to the 0R8. . 23. This increase is likely to account for an additional 90 to 100 students going into the scheme. increase in the number of ORS applications 24. Based on the number of ORS applications receiVed to date, it is likely that during 2014, 9% more (131) applications will have been made to the ORS compared to the number of applications received in 2013. Decrease in the number of students leaving the DRS 25. Another reason for the rise in the number of students in ORS is due to the drop in the numbe students leaving the scheme. 26. From 2008 to 2012 the average number of students exiting ORS each y?earwas i I predicted that 614 students will leave the scheme. This fall in the number?o?f?stu.? scheme would have accounted for an increase in ORS numbers of 9?34stud Since 2008 the average number of students exiting ORS each?iyearlhas these figures, 2014 it is predicted that 614 students will leave the 100 fewer students . Iscsrasrb rosrs {22:31:33, rate of 3.1% per rear? the number 0f 27' If the number or Siddents in ORS Continuestol - to the end of June over the next five students in the scheme (including sittidents?in' years will be as follows: a Jun?17 Jun-18 9087 9368 Jun-14 8301 8558 students in ORS. Based on the current rates for specialist and ei?addltional teacher component, the total cost of providing these a $169,688,692 (GST inclusive). 28. In June gquigthere'we' teacheg??-?alde?sup service?s-is esti 29. the students in ORS continue to increase by 3.1 each year, it is estimated that the ting'the's?e services over the next five years will be as follows: Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 ?69,688,692 $174,949,041 $180,372,461 $185,964,007 $189,485,679 References: Houtrow, Larson, K, Olson, L, Newaoheok, Halfon, N. (2014). Changing Trends of Childhood Disability, 2001?2011 Pediatrics; originally published online originally published online August 18, 2014 DOI: 1. Funding was set aside in the 2009 budget to increase the number of education review that was taking place at the time was to decide how thisladdit' be used. 5 :5 ea 2. As the review was not to be completed until the end oi2010,1_a_rijfinterim 0R8 Extension was put into place. 400 students who unsuccessful ORS application and who had been on Supplement into ORS Extension. ?1 ho had had an 'in'g?nSiipport were put 010 it agreed that an 3. When the Special Education review was corrupt-Tatedatl'th a 400?students in ORS Extension, it additional 700 places would be created for?ORS. Int was planned that by December 2012?theirewot 4. There was some discussion about-Whethe the additional 1,125 placesgil weeds the additional places could be achieved without otstudents in ORS had been increasing. f1; ember; 2012 compared to June 2009 there were an additional agithestudents in ORS Extension. 14 the number of students verified into ORS was as follows: 6,040 1,840 269 8,149 These numbers include 643 students who currently are not enrolled at a school because they are in transition between schools (375) or they are under the age of six and have not yet started school (268). 8. As students are enrolled at schools over the coming weeks the number of non-enrolled students will drop sharply. It is anticipated, based on data from previous years, that by early March the number of non-enrolled students will drop to approximately 150. The number of non-enrolled students likely to remain at this level until the end of the year. Again, based on data from previous years, all but 5% of these students will be under that age of six. 9. Compared to June 2009, currently there are an additional 1,182 students in the scheme if non- enrolled students under the age of six are removed. MEMBERS 10. While the number currently in ORS is close to the Special Education review targeted increase of 1,125, it is likely that the numbers will continue to increase. 11. The annual average rate of inerease in ORS numbers since June 2009 has been Year (June) Total 0R3 %~in_crease 2009 6643 2010 7012 201 1 7163 2012 7413 2013 7594 7_ Average Alex. it would be a concern if the criteria drifting and letting more a occurred, the rate at which applications . This infect this is not the case. The rate riodhas risen, as illustrated in the following 12. The reasons for the increase in ORS numbersare likely} increase was a consequence of the verifiersifjapplicati students into the scheme who have lesser have been declined since June 20001110010 hav? at which applications have been declined 0110 table: I "355;; a Year of appiicati??ir?te tie . 2009 27 2010 "v 2011. 2012 ?ion for the rise in numbers appears to be the increase in the number of 13- 0591.08 9 {births since illustrated in the following table: Births Increase compared to 2005 58,105 - 59,563 2.5 64,503 11.0 64,850 11.6 62,927 8.3 64,315 10.7 14. The increasing incidence of autism and low birth weight children could also be exerting an effect. IWIREASED {@878 15. If the number of students in ORS continues to increase at the rate of 3.4% per year, the number of students in the scheme (including students in ORS Extension) to the end of June over the next We years will be as follows: Jun~14 Jun?15 Jun~16 Jun-17 I Jun-18 7852 8119 8607 8840 9075 16. In June 2013 there were 7,594 students in ORS. Based on the current rates forr?s'p?e teacher?s aide support and the additional teacher component, the total cd?t services is estimated to have been $163,366,603. . 17. If the numbers of students in ORS continue to increase eac estimated that the cost of providing these services over the next five yearsvvill?be as - "13-3? Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 ?Ei?'fgiitrun I $168,593,020 $173,803,785 $178,818,779 $189,485,679 encneneuao . Funding was set aside in the 2009 budget to increase the number of studentsin ORS education review that was taking place at the time was to decide how this addit' be used. *33? 5 cheme called had had an mg?Es-upport were put . As the review was not to be completed until the end of 2010,_ aninteri'ni?a ORS Extension was put into place. 400 students who werejgverthe unsuccessful ORS application and who had been on Supplement into ORS Extension. . When the Special Education review was completed-ailing it agreed that an additional 700 places would be created tor?OBS. Incl 400' students in ORS Extension, it was planned that by December 2012jtherle wou ditignal 1,100 places in ORS. A Sacritefriavvould be changed to accommodate the additional places could be achieved without students in ORS had been increasing. . There was some discussion aboutawhethe the additional 1,100 changing the current criteria?as the . This proved to be meager: ember'2012 compared to June 2009 there were an additional 1,100 students?irigORS i n??theflOO students in ORS Extension. thetable?below the number of students in ORS at June 2013 compared to June The annual average rate of increase since June 2009 however, has Total ORS Increase 6643 - 7012 5.6 7163 . 2.2 7413 3.5. 7594 2.4 Average Increase 3.4 7. The reasons for the increase in numbers are likely to be complex. It would be a concern if the increase in the numbers of students in ORS was a consequence of the verifiers' application of the criteria drifting and letting more students into the scheme who have lesser need. if this had occurred, the rate at which applications have been declined since June 2009 would have fallen. This in fact this is not the case. The rate at which applications have been declined over that period has risen, as illustrated in the following table: Year of applications declined 2009 27 2010 35 2011 35 2012 33 8. The most plausible explanation for the rise in numbers appears to be the increase in the births since 2005 as illustrated in the following table: Year Births increase compared} - to 2005 2005 58,105 a 2005 59,583 sir-2:8 2007 54,503 2008 64,850 2009 52,927 2010 64,315 INCREASED it, inciease at the rate of 3.4% per year, the number of 10. lithe number of in ORS Extension) to the end of June over the next five students in the scheme (i'nt'oludin years will be as followszn "75-Jun-18 3un~17 Jun?18 8607 8840 9075 7,594 students in ORS. Based on the current rates for specialist and suppoit?and the additional teacher component, the total cost of providing these stimated to have been $163,366,603. 885565 of students in ORS continue to increase by 3.4 each year, the cost of providing hese services over the next five years will be as follows: Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 $168,593,020 $173,803,785 $178,818,779 $184,097,097 $189,485,679 1. Funding was set aside in the 2009 budget to increase the number of students anticipated that the outcome of the special education review that was taking place? determine how this additional funding would be used. apt-.15, 2. As the review was not completed until the end of 2010, an interimfone?f Extension was put into place. 400 students who were over thegai?ge unsuccessful 0R8 application and who had been on Supplem'enta trig Support were put into ORS Extension. sing ?we, 3. When the Special Education review was completedat?th' 010 agreed that an additional 700 places would be created for?QRS. It ithathy December 2012 there would be an additional 1,125 places in 38;.crlteriagwould be changed to accommodate eadditidnal places could be achieved without 4. There was some discussion about fsttilicilients in ORS had been increasing. the increase in numbers. It wasdecidm changing the current criteriaas the. 5. This proved to be thejcjase?? mber?2012?lcompared to June 2009, there were an additional 1,082 students in, ?the students in ORS Extension. en emanate seem" th?number of students verified into 0R8 and ors Extension was as follows: 6. WC 1 I 6229 244 Ignaz 8.450 heSe numbers include 204 students who currently are not enrolled at a school because they are in transition between schools or they are Under the age of six and have not yet started school. WCREASWG NUMBERS 8. The annual average percentage increase in ORS numbers since July 2010 has been 3.1. The increase has been more substantial over the last two years and appears to be trending upwards. As can be seen in the table below, the number of students in ORS increased by 4.2 percent between July 2012 to June 2013 and by 4.6 percent between July 2013 and June 2014. 1 Year (Juty) Total Ons? Increase 2010 7,363 2011 7,515 2.1 2012 7,619 1.4 2013 7,938 4.2 2014 8,301 4.6 Average increase 3.1 Application of the 088 criteria 9. The reasons for the increase in ORS numbers are likely to be complex. However, it wou wit. concern if the increase was a consequence of the verifiers' application of the Criteria 3 I and letting more students into the scheme who have lesser need. 09 would have 10. lfthis had occur-led, the rate atwhich applications have been declined sinc lications declined fallen substantially. This does not appear to be the case. Theypercent .- since 2007 has remained fairly constant averaging 32%. 11. If the increase in the numbers of students verified into not: ?T?ed between 2013 and 2014 was the result of a decrease in the percentage of applic?tii ?b'y.the verifiers, the percentage declined would have had to havediiopp?idi :{Isgjn fact?i?s not the case. While there was a slight drop in the percentage ofja?p?plica' ined'in'j2013 it is likely that the percentage of applications declined for 201401" increase in birth rate ORS appears to be the increase in the number 12. One reasonfor-the rise injthe nu . grand 12010 as can be seen in the following table: of births that has occurred bet Births Increase compared to 2005 58,105 - 59,563 2.5 64,503 11.0 64,850 11.6 62,927 8.3 64,315 10.7 61,400 5.7 61,178 5.3 58,717 1.1 The 2007, 2008 and 2009 cohorts have started school over the last three years. This appears to be reflected in the increase in the New Zealand school population. From 1 July 2013 to 1 July 2014 the New Zealand sch00l population increased by 4,858 students. 14. If 1% of these students met the ORS criteria, this increase would have accounted for an additional 50 students being included in the scheme. 1 The number of students in ORS and ORS Extension attending a facility. 2 15. This trend is likely to be short?lived. As can be seen in the table above. since 2010 the number of births has dropped each year and by 2013 had returned to the level recorded in 2005. increase in net migration 16. In 2013 there was a slight net loss in long term and permanent migration of children between the ages of five and 14. However, for children and young people between the ages of 15 and 21, there was a net gain in migration of 3,586. 17. if 1% of these children and young people met the criteria for ORS, the number of students i in 2013 would have increased by approximately 35. 18. Migration figures are not available for 2014, but it is likely, based on past} migration gain will have occurred. rend increase in the incidence of neurodeveiopmental conditions 19. The increasing incidence of neurodevelopmental conditions could exerting an effect on the number of students in ORS. pairments of the growth and development of the brain and nervous "a I I nifest early in development and result in impairments in social, emotional tidhin?g?nCommon examples are autism spectrum disorder, attention deficit disord a taiaicohoi or?easegih?the incidence of disability particularly in errant study completed in the United States (Houtrow et at, 2014). ThefsiLIdy?fo line number of children with disabilities rose 16% between 2001 and . illsadvantaged children had the highest rates of disability, but economically advantaged. experienoed greater increases in disability. The study also reported that disabilitydu {redevelopmentai or mental health conditions rose substantially. 20. Evidence to support the View thyere?iiahs neurodevelopmental conditionspome? 21. It is clear-{thatth rile the?p?ei'Centage of applications to ORS for students with needs relating to autism 111.1201 '20 persent, to date in 2014, 38% of the applications received have involved .S'ttidehts?itm se needs. an increase in the percentage of applications from students with autism, a greater age Qithese applications have been successful. For example, 19 percent of the in 2011 were successful compared with 24 percent in 2014. This suggests hat as well as neurcdeveiopmental conditions increasing in incidence, so has the need for these a students to receive higher levels of support. 22. i Increase in the number of ORS applications 23. Based on the number of ORS applications received to date, by December 2014, it is anticipated 9% (131) more applications will have been made to the ORS compared to the number received in 2013. 24. The increase in applications received would appear to reflect the combined effects of the increase in births, the net migrations gains and the increase in the incidence of neurodeveloprnental conditions noted above. 25. This increase has occurred at a time when early intervention support has remained access to early intervention services may also have contributed to an increase in" the applications to ORS. 3 26. The anticipated rise in applications to ORS is likely to account forlanadd'ti :1?0_0_sttidents going into the scheme. Decrease in the number of students leaving 27. Another factor contributing to the rise in the number 7' RS sine drop in the number of students leaving the scheme. lg}, RS eachiyear has been declining. By the end identswitl'have exited 0R8. Over the test six each-en's each year has been 707. 28. Since 2008 the average number cistd?dents e' of the year it is predicted that durin?g2014, years, the average number of studentse 29. The fall in the number ofis?tgde ORS numbers of approximate pytheisch??rne in 2014 will account for a net increase in cancrusaens ?1.2.1.332; 30. Betwee?r?iijov Sand-Nevember 2014, the number of students in ORS and 0R8 ExtensiOn masses in the birth rats an increase in net migration an increase in the incidence and severity of neurodevelopmental conditions and a decrease in the numbers of students exiting the scheme. 32. If the number of students in ORS continues to increase at the rate it has over the last two years (4.2 percent in 2012-2013 and 4.6 percent in 2013 to 2014), over the next five years the number of students in the scheme will be as follows: Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 8301 8666 8935 9211 9487 33. In June 2014 there were 8,301 students in ORS. Based on the current rates for specialist and teacher's aide support and the additional teacher component, the total cost of providing these services is estimated to be $169,688,692 (GST inclusive). 34. if the numbers continue to increase by 4.4 percent each year, it is estimated that the cost (G inclusive) of providing these services over the next five years will be as follows: Jun-14 Jun-15 I Jun?16 Jun~17 ?Jh' $169,688,692 $177,154,994 $182,646,799 $188,308,849 $19 Reference: Houtrow, Larson, K, Olson, L, Newacheck, Halfon, 2001?2011 Pediatrics; originally published online, origina 2014 DOI: .. gases-- of Childhood lished enline August 18,