RICE KINDER INSTITUTE FORURBAN RESEARCH THE 34TH ANNUAL I KINDER HOUSTON PERSPECTIVES ON A CITY IN x? V?n 1x:\ . 1' ikxft??x I Bank of America is honored to support the 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey Thank you for ali that you do in Houston. Your presence here creates connections that enrich our entire community. and we are honored to support the great work you are doing. Visit us at bankofamerica.com/Houston Life?s better when we?re connected? 5 gumsug Bankof America CO The 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey 3 FOUNDING NOTE 4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS 8 INTERETHNIC RELATIONS 10 SPECIAL FOCUS: FORT BEND AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES 15 THE NEW .r L??f . . ,v ?fr-FOUNOING NOTE lam pleased to report the results of the 2015 Kinder Houston Area Survey, the nation's longest-running study of any metropolitan region's economy, population, life experiences, beliefs and attitudes. No other urban area in America has been the focus of a long-term research program of this scope. Houston exemplifies, as few cities do, the remarkable trends that are refashioning the social and political landscape across all of urban America. The purpose of these continuing surveys is to measure systematically the way the general public is responding to the region's economic and demographic transformations; to explore the bases for individual differences in attitudes and beliefs; and to make the research findings readily available as a meaningful resource for the general public, civic and business leaders, and scholars everywhere in the shared pursuit of solutions to our most pressing urban challenges. SURVEY METHODOLOGY In this report, we track Harris County perspectives on the local economy, traffic and ethnic diversity. We present a preliminary analysis of the similarities and differences across Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties in their demographic patterns, experiences and beliefs. We conclude with an updated assessment of area residents' changing attitudes toward abortion rights, same-sex marriage and the death penalty. It has been a tremendous privilege to be able to work closely with so many good friends and colleagues over the years to develop this evolving chronicle of our times and to add the latest chapter to a story that is as complex and interesting as are Houston-area residents themselves. Sig/w Stephen L. Klineberg, DIRECTOR, KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY FOUNDING DIRECTOR, KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN RESEARCH Social Science Research Solutions (SSRS), the Philadelphia-based research firm, conducted the interviews for this year's survey between Feb. 2 and March 4, 2015. They reached (70 percent by landline, 30 percent by cell phone) a scientifically selected representative sample of 809 residents from Harris County. In a special focus this year, the firm completed an additional 399 interviews in Fort Bend County and 403 in Montgomery County, for a total of 1,611 systematic interviews. The responses from all 34 annual surveys are "weighted" to correct for variations in the likelihood of selection and to align the sample more closely with known population characteristics. This procedure helps to ensure that the data will reflect as accurately as possible the actual distributions along such dimensions as race and ethnicity, age, gender and education levels. The findings reported here, unless otherwise indicated, reflect the views of respondents from Harris County only, asking how the weighted responses in 2015 differ from those that were given to identical questions by previous representative samples of Harris County residents. 2015 The 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey 3 FIGURE 1: THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN HARRIS COUNTY (FEBRUARY FIGURES, 1982–2015) OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 11.0 10.1 9.8 10.0 Official unemployment rates in Harris County 9.0 8.6 8.4 7.8 8.0 7.3 6.8 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.0 6.7 5.7 5.0 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.0 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 YEAR OF SURVEY Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. 09 12 15 PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS FIGURE 2: POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982–2015) 100 Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good” 90 80 70 71 69 68 60 50 43 48 42 40 35 41 30 20 25 10 0 58 60 58 11 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15 YEAR OF SURVEY FIGURE 3: THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY (1982–2015) 80 71 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 70 60 50 Traffic Economy Crime 70 51 47 44 40 30 26 25 27 20 10 0 39 35 14 10 82 85 YEAR OF SURVEY 88 91 94 97 00 03 23 16 15 10 06 37 09 12 26 31 20 19 28 21 16 18 15 Traffic congestion was the dominant concern during the booming years of the early 19805, whereas area residents were preoccupied with economic issues during the recession of the mid-19805. The percentages naming the economy as the most serious problem peaked at 71 percent in early 1987. During the 19905, worries about crime were predominant, mentioned spontaneously by 70 percent of area residents in 1995. Since that year, the numbers citing crime or personal safety as the biggest problem decreased steadily, to just 16 percent in 2012. Meanwhile, the proportion of area residents who named traffic as the dominating concern grew again from single digits in the early 19905 to 47 percent in 2004; traffic woes faded during the years from 2009 to 2012, when economic anxieties once again predominated. Now, as the economy has improved and with Houston's population still surging, traffic has once again taken over as the dominating concern among area residents. Traffic congestion was cited as the biggest problem by 28 percent of Harris County residents in 2015 and by 31 percent in 2014, up from 20 percent in 2013 and 15 percent in 2012. Just 18 percent in this year's survey named the economy and 21 percent cited crime as the biggest problem facing people in the Houston area today. TRAFFIC AND ITS SOLUTIONS In alternating years, the survey participants who had lived in the Houston area for three or more years were asked directly whether they thought traffic had generally been getting better, worse or stayed about the same. In the 2015 survey, almost two-thirds of all Harris County residents (65 percent) said it was getting worse, up from 56 percent who felt that way in 2013, from 53 percent in 2011 and from 59 percent in 2009. The proportion of respondents who thought traffic was getting better dropped from 16 percent in 2009 to just 6 percent in this year's survey. As Figure 4 indicates, the respondents were also asked which of three proposals they thought would be the best solution to traffic problems in the Houston area. By far the most widely preferred solution, chosen by 43 percent this year, was ?making improvements in public transportation, such as trains, buses and light rail." Another 27 percent called for ?developing communities where people can live closer to where they work and shop." Only 26 percent of Harris County residents thought that the traditional solution, ?building bigger and better roads and highways," would be li?lleal .- FIGURE 4: ASSESSMENTS OF TRAFFIC IN THE HOUSTON AREA, AND OF THREE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS (2009–2015) 100 90 80 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 70 60 “Over the past three years, has traffic in the Houston area generally gotten better, gotten worse, or has it stayed about the same?” 65 59 53 2009 56 “Which of these proposals would be the best long-term solution to the traffic problems in the Houston area?” 2011 2013 2015 50 42 40 44 43 40 31 31 30 24 33 33 28 16 15 20 12 10 0 Worse Same 27 26 21 23 27 27 6 Better Highways Urbanism Transit FIGURE 5: ASSESSMENTS OF CRIME, AIR POLLUTION AND OVERALL LIVING CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY (2005–2015) “Very worried” that you or a member of your family will become the victim of a crime. “Very concerned” about the effects of air pollution on your family’s health. 50% 33% 31% 05 07 09 11 13 42% 29% 15 05 07 09 11 13 36% 15 Living conditions in the Houston area have “gotten better.” 37% 05 34% 07 09 11 13 38% 15 FIGURE 6: ASSESSMENTS OF RACE AND ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992–2015) 60% Percent rating ethnic relations as “excellent” or “good” 48% 49% 38% 33% 27% 21% 35% 59% 56% 53% Anglos 46% 48% 45% Latinos 37% 36% 35% 27% 14% 10% 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Blacks FIGURE 7: ATTITUDES TOWARD IMMIGRANTS IN HARRIS COUNTY (2009–2015) Percent of respondents agreeing 90% 69% 54% 55% 83% 72% 64% 09 11 72% 52% Admit the same number or more legal immigrants. 0% 71% 13 For: granting a path to legal citizenship. 15 09 10 11 12 13 14 60% 59% 47% The new immigration mostly strengthens American culture. 15 09 11 13 15 © 2015 The 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey 9 FIGURE 8: ETHNICITY AND EDUCATION IN THE THREE COUNTIES (ACS 2009–2013 FIVE-YEAR ESTIMATES) 100% 90% 8.0 19.8 80% 70% 41.4 23.9 40% 18.5 20% 10% 0% 80% 4.1 20.7 69.9 30% 90% 21.6 60% 50% 100% 4.4 Asians/Others 60% Latinos 50% Blacks 40% 32.1 30% Harris Fort Bend Montgomery (N=4,255,830) (N=628,443) (N=485,225) 0% 9.9 Adults 25 years and older 21.3 27.9 Graduate or professional degree 26.7 29.5 28.0 23.7 17.9 20% 10% 14.4 18.7 70% Anglos 35.6 10.3 20.8 Harris Bachelor's degree Some college Associate's degree, 25.4 High school graduate Less than high school 11.8 14.0 Fort Bend Montgomery FIGURE 9: COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY (2015) Harris 100 90 80 70 Fort Bend 73 73 67 60 60 60 63 53 71 70 63 67 54 Montgomery 49 50 54 45 40 30 20 10 0 Admit more or about the same number of legal immigrants as in the last 10 years. The increasing immigration into this country mostly strengthens American culture. The increasing ethnic diversity brought about by immigration is a good thing. Favor granting illegal immigrants in U.S. a path to legal citizenship. Ratings of the relations among ethnic groups as either “good” or “excellent.” © 2015 The 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey 11 FIGURE 10: THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FACING PEOPLE IN THREE COUNTIES (2015) Harris Fort Bend Montgomery 8.0 11.4 28.1 24.6 16.8 13.0 20.9 14.8 Economy Traffic 27.8 40.4 23.8 21.2 18.4 10.0 DK/RF 20.8 Crime All other concerns FIGURE 11: COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN THE PREFERENCE FOR “WALKABLE URBANISM” (2015) 100 Harris 90 Fort Bend 80 Montgomery 70 60 50 40 49 39 40 41 37 34 38 43 49 54 42 38 43 45 45 30 20 10 0 Prefer area with mix of developments, including homes, shops and restaurants. Visited Houston’s urban amenities three or more times in the past year. Percent who own a bicycle. Percent wishing they could ride a bicycle more often. Improving public transportation is the best solution to traffic problems. FIGURE 12: POLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATION IN THE THREE COUNTIES (2015) 100% 90% 80% 32 41 70% 60% 53 23 50% Republicans 18 40% Independent/Other/DK 18 30% 20% 45 41 29 10% 0% Democrats Harris Fort Bend Montgomery © 2015 The 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey 13 FIGURE 13: COUNTY DIFFERENCES IN PERSPECTIVES ON PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES (2015) 100 Harris 90 Fort Bend 80 Montgomery 70 62 60 50 75 66 45 50 47 40 40 37 28 30 31 56 30 20 10 0 Government is trying to do too much that should be left to individuals and businesses. "Very concerned" about environmental issues in general. Favor a law making it more difficult to obtain an abortion. Favor the death penalty for persons convicted of murder. FIGURE 14: ABORTION ATTITUDES IN HARRIS COUNTY (1999–2015) 100% 63% 61% 59% 0% 1999 58% 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Opposed to “a law that would make it more difficult for a woman to obtain an abortion.” Believe that “abortion is morally wrong.” 2015 © 2015 The 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey 15 FIGURE 15: THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THOSE WHO SUPPORT THE “RIGHT TO CHOOSE” AMONG THE ANTI-ABORTION RESPONDENTS (2015) 70 60 60 50 52 49 46 63 60 60 46 47 39 40 30 20 10 0 Male Female Less than $37,500 $37,500− $75,000 More than $75,000 Democrats Independent Republicans Attended Did not attend religious religious services. services in the past month. PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS FIGURE 16: SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (1991–2015) 70 Favor: “Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children.” 60 Agree: “Marriages between homosexuals should be given the same legal status as heterosexual marriages.” 50 47 40 40 30 10 32 91 35 27 93 96 42 38 47 45 43 51 51 14 15 43 37 35 28 27 17 41 37 31 20 49 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FIGURE 17: SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH PENALTY (1993–2015) 80 75 66 70 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 60 62 67 58 66 57 56 50 40 34 41 32 39 30 30 28 The death penalty, and not life imprisonment, “should generally be the penalty for persons convicted of first-degree murder.” 10 0 37 Favor “the death penalty for persons convicted of murder.” 20 93 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 YEAR OF SURVEY 18 61 58 60 © 2015 The 34th Annual Kinder Houston Area Survey 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 THE NINE-COUNTY HOUSTON METROPOLITAN REGION  HARRIS COUNTY AREA: 1,777 SQ. MI. POPULATION: 4,225,830  MONTGOMERY COUNTY AREA: 1,077 SQ. MI. POPULATION: 485,225 LIBERTY AUSTIN WALLER CHAMBERS  GALVESTON FORT BEND COUNTY AREA: 885 SQ. MI. POPULATION: 628,443 BRAZORIA SOURCE: ACS 2013 (THREE–YEAR ESTIMATES), U.S. CENSUS BUREAU .aIcI. V. h? r?Yl. II. . i It?l'l? In. -. . I. 1- :Iu-Inli'l? - . . d-unn??i ?l I II I- - It?l?i- m: 41nd m; nu tum u. ?mg Ion \Ian- .. I 7hr tum-Lou: ?113) . 'I]q - .. . . ll?? ., :mnmuz.?_ -. 'a 57""