3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC FINAL NH Republican Toplines March 2015 GeoCode: (N=500) n Hillsborough ------------------------------------------------------ 151 Rockingham ------------------------------------------------------ 125 North/West ------------------------------------------------------- 102 Central ------------------------------------------------------------- 122 % 30.20 25.00 20.40 24.40 ************************************************************************************************************************************* Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk University and I would like to get your opinions on some political questions. Would you be willing to spend five minutes answering some questions? Gender: (N=500) n Male ---------------------------------------------------------------- 245 Female ------------------------------------------------------------ 255 S.2. % 49.00 51.00 How likely are you to vote in the Republican Presidential Primary in ten months? (N=500) n % Very Likely -------------------------------------------------------- 419 83.80 Somewhat Likely -------------------------------------------------- 43 8.60 50/50 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 38 7.60 S.3 Are you currently registered as a Democrat, Republican, Undeclared/Independent, something else or are you not registered to vote? (N=500) n % Democratic --------------------------------------------------------- 26 5.20 Republican ------------------------------------------------------- 296 59.20 Undeclared/Independent -------------------------------------- 177 35.40 Not registered ------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 {S3.1, 3.3, 3.4 only} S.4 Just to be clear, although you are , you intend to vote in the Republican Presidential Primary in ten months? (N=204) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 204 100.00 QUOTA 5. What is your age category? (N=500) n 18-24 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 17 25-34 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 76 35-44 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 90 45-54 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 94 55-64 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 81 65-74 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 69 75 + ------------------------------------------------------------------ 55 Refused ------------------------------------------------------------- 18 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 1 of 9 % 3.40 15.20 18.00 18.80 16.20 13.80 11.00 3.60 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC QUOTA 6. For statistical purposes only, can you please tell me what your ethnic background / ancestry is? (N=500) n % White/Caucasian ------------------------------------------------ 454 90.80 Black/African-American ------------------------------------------ 3 0.60 American Indian / Alaska Native ------------------------------- 5 1.00 Asian ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 0.20 Native Hawaiian / Other Pacific Islander --------------------- 0 0.00 Hispanic/Latino ----------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 14 2.80 Refused ------------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.80 7. If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were held today, who would be your first choice to win the Republican nomination? {OPEN-END}. See next page. (N=500) n % John Bolton ---------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 64 12.80 Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.00 Chris Christie-------------------------------------------------------- 8 1.60 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 13 2.60 Carly Fiorina--------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 Lindsey Graham ---------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 Mike Huckabee ----------------------------------------------------- 7 1.40 Bobby Jindal -------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 John Kasich --------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Peter King ----------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 George Pataki ------------------------------------------------------ 1 0.20 Rand Paul ---------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.80 Mike Pence ---------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Rick Perry ------------------------------------------------------------ 2 0.40 Rob Portman -------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.00 Paul Ryan ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 0.20 Rick Santorum ------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Donald Trump------------------------------------------------------ 17 3.40 Scott Walker-------------------------------------------------------- 49 9.80 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 15 3.00 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 277 55.40 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 2 of 9 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC {FOR UNDECIDED} Here is a list of some potential candidates: {RANDOMIZE} 7A. Who would be your first choice? (N=277) n % John Bolton ---------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.36 Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 30 10.83 Ben Carson ---------------------------------------------------------- 6 2.17 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------- 15 5.42 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 11 3.97 Carly Fiorina--------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.81 Lindsey Graham ---------------------------------------------------- 4 1.44 Mike Huckabee ----------------------------------------------------- 9 3.25 Bobby Jindal -------------------------------------------------------- 3 1.08 John Kasich --------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Peter King ----------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 George Pataki ------------------------------------------------------ 1 0.36 Rand Paul ---------------------------------------------------------- 16 5.78 Mike Pence ---------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.36 Rick Perry ------------------------------------------------------------ 3 1.08 Rob Portman -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.36 Marco Rubio--------------------------------------------------------- 6 2.17 Paul Ryan ------------------------------------------------------------ 6 2.17 Rick Santorum ------------------------------------------------------ 2 0.72 Donald Trump------------------------------------------------------ 12 4.33 Scott Walker-------------------------------------------------------- 22 7.94 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 3 1.08 Undecided -------------------------------------------------------- 120 43.32 Q7. Combined (Open-end/prompted) for FIRST CHOICE. (N=500) n John Bolton -------------------------------------------------------- 1 Jeb Bush ----------------------------------------------------------- 94 Ben Carson -------------------------------------------------------- 16 Chris Christie ----------------------------------------------------- 23 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 24 Carly Fiorina ------------------------------------------------------- 8 Lindsey Graham -------------------------------------------------- 6 Mike Huckabee --------------------------------------------------- 16 Bobby Jindal ------------------------------------------------------- 5 John Kasich -------------------------------------------------------- 0 Peter King ---------------------------------------------------------- 0 George Pataki ----------------------------------------------------- 2 Rand Paul ---------------------------------------------------------- 35 Mike Pence --------------------------------------------------------- 1 Rick Perry ----------------------------------------------------------- 5 Rob Portman ------------------------------------------------------- 1 Marco Rubio ------------------------------------------------------ 16 Paul Ryan ----------------------------------------------------------- 7 Rick Santorum ---------------------------------------------------- 2 Donald Trump ---------------------------------------------------- 29 Scott Walker ------------------------------------------------------ 71 Other ---------------------------------------------------------------- 18 Undecided ------------------------------------------------------- 120 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 3 of 9 % 0.20 18.80 3.20 4.60 4.80 1.60 1.20 3.20 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 7.00 0.20 1.00 0.20 3.20 1.40 0.40 5.80 14.20 3.60 24.00 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC {Exclude answer from Q7 & 7A as an option, respondents must pick another candidate} 8. Who would be your second choice? (RANDOMIZE) (N=380) n % John Bolton ---------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.53 Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 42 11.05 Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 17 4.47 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------- 21 5.53 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 12 3.16 Carly Fiorina--------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.32 Lindsey Graham ---------------------------------------------------- 5 1.32 Mike Huckabee ---------------------------------------------------- 15 3.95 Bobby Jindal -------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.32 John Kasich --------------------------------------------------------- 7 1.84 Peter King ----------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.53 George Pataki ------------------------------------------------------ 2 0.53 Rand Paul ---------------------------------------------------------- 26 6.84 Mike Pence ---------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.53 Rick Perry ----------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.63 Rob Portman -------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.26 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 36 9.47 Paul Ryan ----------------------------------------------------------- 13 3.42 Rick Santorum ------------------------------------------------------ 6 1.58 Donald Trump------------------------------------------------------ 18 4.74 Scott Walker-------------------------------------------------------- 36 9.47 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 5 1.32 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 92 24.21 9. How satisfied are you with the Republican field of candidates? (N=500) n Very satisfied------------------------------------------------------- 76 Somewhat satisfied--------------------------------------------- 199 Somewhat dissatisfied ----------------------------------------- 107 Very dissatisfied --------------------------------------------------- 59 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 59 % 15.20 39.80 21.40 11.80 11.80 Great, I am going to read you a list of individuals in state and national politics. For each, please tell me if your opinion of them is generally favorable or generally unfavorable. If you are undecided or if you have never heard of someone, just tell me that. First take Barack Obama. Is your opinion of Barack Obama generally favorable or generally unfavorable? (RANDOMIZE11-17) (N=500) 10. Barack Obama NEVER HEARD 2 0.40 FAVORABLE 87 17.40 UNFAVORABLE 391 78.20 HOF/UNDECIDED 20 4.00 11. Hillary Clinton 3 0.60 87 17.40 382 76.40 28 5.60 12. Chris Christie 11 2.20 192 38.40 193 38.60 104 20.80 13. Jeb Bush 7 1.40 269 53.80 134 26.80 90 18.00 75 15.00 229 45.80 76 15.20 120 24.00 14. Scott Walker New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 4 of 9 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC 15. Ben Carson 16. Rand Paul 145 29.00 176 35.20 53 10.60 126 25.20 20 4.00 227 45.40 132 26.40 121 24.20 17. Mike Huckabee 19 248 147 86 3.80 49.60 29.40 17.20 18. What is the first word or phrase that comes to mind when you hear the name “Jeb Bush”? (N=500) n “George Bush/Brother/Son” ------------------------------------ 61 “Family/Legacy/Dynasty” ---------------------------------------- 86 “Tired of the Bushes/Too many Bushes” -------------------- 37 “Republican”-------------------------------------------------------- 15 “Florida/Governor of Florida” ----------------------------------- 36 “Knowledgeable/Intelligent” ------------------------------------ 14 “Immigration/Hispanics” ----------------------------------------- 15 “Honest/Trustworthy/Credibility” ------------------------------- 21 “Experience”--------------------------------------------------------- 7 “Conservative” ------------------------------------------------------ 7 “Education” ---------------------------------------------------------- 3 “Has done a good job” -------------------------------------------- 4 “Presidential candidate” ----------------------------------------- 11 “Like him/General positive” ------------------------------------- 37 “Patriotic” ------------------------------------------------------------- 2 “Dedicated/Dependable” ----------------------------------------- 5 “Old school/Timer” ------------------------------------------------- 6 “Politician” ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 “Big money” --------------------------------------------------------- 3 “Agree with his views” (General) ------------------------------- 1 “Competent” --------------------------------------------------------- 4 “Someone New/Different” ---------------------------------------- 4 “Dislike him/General negative”--------------------------------- 31 “Moderate/Liberal/Not conservative enough” -------------- 15 “Don't know enough about him” -------------------------------- 4 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 14 DK/NA/Refused --------------------------------------------------- 57 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 5 of 9 % 12.20 17.20 7.40 3.00 7.20 2.80 3.00 4.20 1.40 1.40 0.60 0.80 2.20 7.40 0.40 1.00 1.20 2.00 0.60 0.20 0.80 0.80 6.20 3.00 0.80 2.80 11.40 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC 19. What is the first word/phrase that comes to mind when you hear the name “Scott Walker”? (N=500) n % “Conservative” ----------------------------------------------------- 18 3.60 “Anti-Union/Right to work” -------------------------------------- 37 7.40 “Wisconsin/Governor of Wisconsin” -------------------------- 20 4.00 “Young” --------------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 “Intelligent” ---------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 “New/Fresh candidate” ------------------------------------------ 11 2.20 “Has done a good job” -------------------------------------------- 8 1.60 “Honest/Integrity”-------------------------------------------------- 12 2.40 “Strong” -------------------------------------------------------------- 15 3.00 “Successful” --------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 “Leader” -------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 “Fighter/Hard worker” -------------------------------------------- 18 3.60 “Agree with policies”----------------------------------------------- 6 1.20 “Interesting” --------------------------------------------------------- 7 1.40 “Politician” ----------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 “Potential/Presidential candidate” ------------------------------ 9 1.80 “Courageous/Rebel”----------------------------------------------- 8 1.60 “Capable/Competent” -------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 “Experience/Qualified” -------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 “Crooked/Deceitful” ------------------------------------------------ 5 1.00 “Like Him/General positive” ------------------------------------ 35 7.00 “Dislike him/General negative”--------------------------------- 17 3.40 “Don't know him/enough about him” ------------------------- 27 5.40 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.60 DK/NA/Refused ------------------------------------------------- 199 39.80 20.What is the first word /phrase that comes to mind when you hear the name “Hillary Clinton” (N=500) n % “Liar/Dishonest/Untrustworthy” -------------------------------- 97 19.40 “Corrupt/Thief/Crook” -------------------------------------------- 38 7.60 “Bill Clinton/Another Clinton” ----------------------------------- 14 2.80 “Controversial” ------------------------------------------------------ 3 0.60 “Drama/Baggage/Issues” --------------------------------------- 15 3.00 “Benghazi” ----------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 “Capable/Competent” --------------------------------------------- 6 1.20 “Accomplished/Qualified/Experience”------------------------- 6 1.20 “Ambitious/Effective” --------------------------------------------- 14 2.80 “A woman/First Woman president” --------------------------- 14 2.80 “Liberal” -------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 “Intelligent” ----------------------------------------------------------- 6 1.20 “Hasn't done a good job/History” ------------------------------- 7 1.40 “Incompetent/Ineffective” ----------------------------------------- 8 1.60 “Democrat” ---------------------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 “Entitled/Establishment” ------------------------------------------ 5 1.00 “Old/Over the hill” -------------------------------------------------- 8 1.60 “Secretary of State”------------------------------------------------ 6 1.20 “Strong/Strength/Power” ---------------------------------------- 14 2.80 “Been around too long/No more Clintons” ------------------ 13 2.60 “Self-centered” ------------------------------------------------------ 5 1.00 “Not ready/Unqualified” ------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 “Like Her/General positive” ------------------------------------- 22 4.40 “Dislike her/General negative” ------------------------------- 132 26.40 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 17 3.40 DK/NA/Refused --------------------------------------------------- 43 8.60 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 6 of 9 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC 21. Do you think the country is heading in the right direction or is on the wrong track? (N=500) n % Right direction ----------------------------------------------------- 64 12.80 Wrong track ------------------------------------------------------ 398 79.60 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 38 7.60 22. Do you believe the Republican Party today is too conservative, not conservative enough, or does it match your values? (N=500) n % Too conservative ------------------------------------------------ 158 31.60 Not conservative enough ------------------------------------- 161 32.20 Matches my values --------------------------------------------- 106 21.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 75 15.00 23. Do you think the Tea Party has too much influence in Washington, not enough influence or is their level of influence about right? (N=500) n % Too much --------------------------------------------------------- 159 31.80 Not enough ------------------------------------------------------- 129 25.80 About right -------------------------------------------------------- 143 28.60 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 69 13.80 24. What do you think is the most important issue facing the country right now? {Randomize} (N=500) n % Reducing the national debt ------------------------------------ 54 10.80 Taxes ---------------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.60 Jobs and the economy ---------------------------------------- 106 21.20 Schools and education ------------------------------------------ 26 5.20 Health care -------------------------------------------------------- 34 6.80 Energy independence ------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 Illegal immigration ------------------------------------------------ 55 11.00 Abortion policy ------------------------------------------------------ 7 1.40 Same-sex marriage ----------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 Civil liberties -------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.60 Terrorism and National Security ---------------------------- 145 29.00 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 33 6.60 25. What do you think is the second most important issue facing the country right now? {Randomize} (N=467) n % Reducing the national debt ------------------------------------ 57 12.21 Taxes ---------------------------------------------------------------- 26 5.57 Jobs and the economy ------------------------------------------ 91 19.49 Schools and education ------------------------------------------ 30 6.42 Health care -------------------------------------------------------- 42 8.99 Energy independence ------------------------------------------- 12 2.57 Illegal immigration ------------------------------------------------ 71 15.20 Abortion policy ------------------------------------------------------ 5 1.07 Same-sex marriage ----------------------------------------------- 3 0.64 Civil liberties -------------------------------------------------------- 15 3.21 Terrorism and National Security ------------------------------ 91 19.49 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 24 5.14 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 7 of 9 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC 26. Do you agree or disagree that raising taxes should be an option for helping to reduce the national debt? (N=500) n % Agree -------------------------------------------------------------- 140 28.00 Disagree ---------------------------------------------------------- 322 64.40 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 38 7.60 27. Do you think that the Affordable Care Act should be repealed, modified or left alone? (N=500) n % Repealed ---------------------------------------------------------- 225 45.00 Modified ----------------------------------------------------------- 177 35.40 Left alone ----------------------------------------------------------- 60 12.00 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 38 7.60 28. In 2012, Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee and lost to Barack Obama not only nationally but in New Hampshire as well. As a Republican Primary voter, why do you think Mitt Romney lost in 2012 (in your own words)? {OPEN} (N=500) n % “Ran a poor campaign” ----------------------------------------------------- 43 8.60 “Didn't get his message out/Didn't focus on issues” ---------------- 30 6.00 “Obama/Democrats lied” ---------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 “Seemed out of touch” ------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.20 “Poor voter turnout” ---------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 “Trust issues” ------------------------------------------------------------------ 6 1.20 “Too honest” ------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 1.20 “Not aggressive enough/Too nice/Gentleman” ----------------------- 66 13.20 “Liar/Crook/Fraud” ------------------------------------------------------------ 7 1.40 “Obama was better/Ran a better campaign” -------------------------- 37 7.40 “Couldn't connect to the people” ----------------------------------------- 47 9.40 “Media” ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 3.40 “Not conservative enough/Too liberal” --------------------------------- 11 2.20 “Too conservative” ---------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 “Obama already president/People gave him another chance” ---- 8 1.60 “Gender Bias”------------------------------------------------------------------ 3 0.60 “Religion/Values/Mormon” ------------------------------------------------- 10 2.00 “Massachusetts” ------------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.20 “Didn't get enough votes/Too many people voted for Obama” --- 10 2.00 “Voter fraud” ------------------------------------------------------------------ 11 2.20 “Personality” ------------------------------------------------------------------ 17 3.40 “47% Comment” -------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 “Didn't follow through/Gave up” ------------------------------------------- 9 1.80 “Wasn't a good candidate” ------------------------------------------------- 7 1.40 “More democrats/liberals in NH” ------------------------------------------ 5 1.00 “Associated with the rich/Elitist” ------------------------------------------- 9 1.80 “Didn't have the black vote/Didn't reach out to minorities” ---------- 4 0.80 “Democrats offering handouts” -------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 “Didn't have support of Republicans” ------------------------------------ 4 0.80 “Lack of Leadership qualities” --------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 “Said the wrong things” ----------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 “People wanted a black president” --------------------------------------- 3 0.60 “He wasn't ready” ------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 “Lack of support” -------------------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 “His choice for Vice President” -------------------------------------------- 4 0.80 “People didn't agree with his position on issues” --------------------- 3 0.60 General negative ------------------------------------------------------------- 7 1.40 Other ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.80 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 8 of 9 Confidential 3/21 – 3/24 SUPRC DK/NA/Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 67 13.40 29. The last three Republican Presidents were George W. Bush serving from 2001-2008, George Herbert Walker Bush serving from 1989-1992, and Ronald Reagan serving from 1981-1988. From your point of view, which of the three was your personal favorite – “W” Bush, George Herbert Walker Bush, or Ronald Reagan? (N=500) n % "W" Bush (2001-2008) ------------------------------------------ 30 6.00 Herbert Walker Bush (1989-1992) --------------------------- 72 14.40 Ronald Reagan (1981-1988) -------------------------------- 381 76.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 17 3.40 30. life? 31. 32. With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro-choice or pro(N=500) n Pro-choice -------------------------------------------------------- 243 Pro-life ------------------------------------------------------------- 205 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 52 % 48.60 41.00 10.40 Do you favor or oppose legalizing same-sex marriage? (N=500) n Favor --------------------------------------------------------------- 215 Oppose ------------------------------------------------------------ 194 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 91 % 43.00 38.80 18.20 Have you ever worked for minimum wage? (N=500) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 401 No--------------------------------------------------------------------- 93 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 6 % 80.20 18.60 1.20 THE FINAL 3 QUESTIONS WILL HELP US CLASSIFY YOUR ANSWERS WITH OTHERS TAKING THE SURVEY 33. 34. 35. Would you describe yourself as conservative, moderate or liberal? (N=500) n Conservative ----------------------------------------------------- 245 Moderate ---------------------------------------------------------- 207 Liberal --------------------------------------------------------------- 35 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 13 % 49.00 41.40 7.00 2.60 Are your values similar to the values of the Tea Party? (N=500) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 182 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 233 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 85 % 36.40 46.60 17.00 Do you currently have children in the school system? (N=500) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 123 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 371 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 6 % 24.60 74.20 1.20 [THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. HAVE A NICE DAY/EVENING.] New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 9 of 9 Confidential