Overseas Merchandise Trade: February 2015
Embargoed until 10:45am – 25 March 2015

Key facts
For February 2015 compared with February 2014:
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Exports fell $608 million (13 percent) to $3.9 billion.
Milk powder, butter, and cheese led the fall.
Exports to China fell $421 million (36 percent) to $740 million.
Imports were up $139 million (3.7 percent) to $3.9 billion.
Consumption goods led the rise.
There was a trade surplus of $50 million (1.3 percent of exports).

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
ISSN 1178-0320
25 March 2015

 Commentary
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Exports fall 13 percent
Imports rise 3.7 percent
Small trade surplus in February 2015
Seasonally adjusted exports fall 3.2 percent
Seasonally adjusted imports rise 5.8 percent
Exchange rate movements

All comparisons are between February 2015 and February 2014, unless otherwise stated.

Exports fall 13 percent
In February 2015, goods exports were valued at $3.9 billion, down $608 million (13 percent) from
February 2014. This was the second-highest value ever of goods exported for a February month.
Exports in February 2014 were the highest ever for February months, valued at $4.5 billion.

Fall in exports due to milk powder to China
Milk powder, butter, and cheese (New Zealand’s largest export commodity group) fell $647
million (41 percent) to $913 million. The fall was driven by lower prices, with the quantity
exported in February 2015 down 10 percent.

2

 The fall in milk powder, butter, and cheese exports for February 2015 was led by whole milk
powder, down $457 million (51 percent). Whole milk powder quantity exported fell 15 percent.
By destination, milk powder, butter and cheese exports to China fell $525 million (77 percent).
There were smaller falls to other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Meat and edible offal (New Zealand’s second-largest export commodity group) rose $78 million
(12 percent). The rise was due to higher prices, with the quantity down 0.6 percent. Frozen beef
drove the rise, up $71 million (33 percent).
Other key changes in commodity group export values, for February 2015:



crude oil fell $51 million
aluminium and aluminium articles fell $33 million.

Exports to China fall
The monthly movements for February 2015 for our top export destinations (ranked by total
annual exports) were:
1. China – down $421 million (36 percent) to $740 million, due to whole milk powder. Wool
rose $27 million.
2. Australia – down $59 million (8.1 percent), due to crude oil, down $68 million.
3. United States – up $100 million (26 percent), led by frozen beef, up $60 million.
4. European Union (EU) – down $41 million (9.4 percent), led by milk powder, butter, and
cheese, down $15 million (41 percent), and wine, down $12 million (34 percent).
Harvesting machinery parts (such as fruit graders) partly offset the fall, up $15 million.
5. Japan – down $58 million (21 percent). Unwrought aluminium fell $36 million, while crude
oil partly offset the fall, up $17 million.

3

 Imports rise 3.7 percent
In February 2015, goods imports were valued at $3.9 billion, up $139 million (3.7 percent) from
February 2014.

Consumption goods lead the rise in imports
Of the three main broad economic categories, consumption and capital goods increased in
value, while intermediate goods decreased in value compared with February 2014.

4

 Consumption goods rose $126 million (14 percent), led by semi-durable consumer goods (such
as knitted clothing).
Capital goods rose $61 million (8.8 percent). Machinery and plant equipment rose $66 million
(13 percent) led by mobile telephones (personal and business use).
Intermediate goods fell $44 million (2.5 percent), due to crude oil, down $197 million (42
percent). Processed industrial supplies (including aluminium oxide) partly offset the fall, up $88
million (12 percent).
In other categories of goods:



passenger motor cars rose $29 million (11 percent)
petrol and avgas fell $35 million (27 percent).

Four of our top five import partners show increases
The monthly movements for February 2015 for our top import partners (ranked by total annual
imports) were:
1. EU – up $27 million (4.1 percent), led by petroleum bitumen from Spain (up $13 million)
and aircraft from France (up $9.1 million). The rise was partly offset by a fall in trains
from Spain (down $13 million).
2. China – up $156 million (24 percent), led by knitted clothing (such as jerseys).
3. Australia – up $91 million (20 percent), led by crude oil and aluminium oxide.
4. United States – down $4.6 million (1.3 percent), due to motor spirit and goods vehicles.
5. Japan – up $28 million (11 percent), led by motor cars.

5

 Import shipments of petroleum tend to fluctuate depending on where they come from, which
causes large changes in quantities and values. In February 2015, petroleum influenced other
significant movements. Saudi Arabia and Singapore showed increases; Russia, Malaysia,
United Arab Emirates, Korea, and Kuwait showed decreases.

Small trade surplus in February 2015
In February 2015, there was a small trade surplus of $50 million (1.3 percent of exports). This
compares with an average surplus of 9.8 percent of exports over the previous five February
months.

For the year ended February 2015, there was an annual trade deficit of $2.2 billion (4.4 percent
of exports). This is down from the most-recent peak, which was a surplus of $1.8 billion for the
year ended August 2014.

Seasonally adjusted exports fall 3.2 percent
The seasonally adjusted value of exported goods in February 2015 fell 3.2 percent ($128 million)
from January 2015. This follows a 2.4 percent increase in January 2015 from December 2014.
The trend for exports has fallen 7.8 percent since the recent peak in January 2014.

Trend for monthly exports to China continues to fall
Seasonally adjusted country exports series for Australia, China, and EU were developed last
quarter. These series are available on Infoshare (See 'Seasonally adjusted and trend values of
exports & re-exports - by country - fob (Monthly)').

6

 Comparisons are between February 2015 and January 2015.
The seasonally adjusted monthly movements for February 2015 for these countries (ranked by
total annual exports) were:
1. China – up 11 percent ($64 million) to $631 million. However, the trend for exports to
China has been falling for over a year now. It is 45 percent lower than the series peak in
December 2013, and is now at similar levels to mid-2012.
2. Australia – up 4.0 percent ($27 million) to $701 million. The trend for exports to Australia
has been falling in recent years. It is 24 percent lower than the series peak in July 2011.
3. EU – down 14 percent ($61 million) to $386 million.

Change in seasonally adjusted export values
Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports fell 10 percent ($99 million), following a 5.2 percent
fall in January 2015. The seasonally adjusted quantity fell 6.0 percent.
Fruit exports fell 25 percent ($50 million), following a 34 percent rise in January 2015. The
seasonally adjusted quantity fell 55 percent, following a 22 percent rise.
Ships, boats, and floating structures exports fell 90 percent ($35 million), following a 15
percent fall in January 2015. This group is not seasonally adjusted.
Logs, wood, wood articles exports rose 23 percent ($62 million), following a 14 percent fall in
January 2015.
Crude oil exports more than doubled, up $37 million. However, export values for January 2015
were the lowest since March 2007. Crude oil is not seasonally adjusted; exports vary and are
affected by the timing of shipments.

Trend for milk powder, butter, and cheese continues to fall
The trend for milk powder, butter, and cheese exports has been falling for 14 consecutive
months. It is now 36 percent lower than the series peak in December 2013.
Recent trends for the values of other leading commodity groups show that:
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

meat and edible offal has been increasing since June 2014 and has reached a new
high.
logs, wood, and wood articles has fallen 11 percent since the series peak in October
2013 but appears to be rising. More data points are required to confirm this.

7

 Seasonally adjusted imports rise 5.8 percent
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 5.8 percent ($234 million), to $4.3 billion in February
2015, compared with January 2015. This follows an 8.7 percent fall in January 2015 compared
with December 2014. Excluding petroleum and products, seasonally adjusted imports rose 5.9
percent in February 2015.
The trend for import values has been rising in recent months and is now at a series high.

China top source for monthly imports
Seasonally adjusted country imports series for EU, China, and Australia were developed last
quarter. These series are available on Infoshare (See 'SCS - Seasonally adjusted and trend
values of imports - by country (Monthly)').
Comparisons are between February 2015 and January 2015.
The seasonally adjusted monthly movements for February 2015 for these countries (ranked by
total annual imports) were:
1. EU – up 5.8 percent ($43 million) to $796 million. The trend for imports from EU has
showed little change in the past 12 months.
2. China – up 9.1 percent ($69 million) to $831 million.
3. Australia – up 25 percent ($118 million) to $584 million.

8

 Exchange rate movements
According to the Reserve Bank’s trade weighted index, the New Zealand dollar was 1.3 percent
lower in February 2015 than in January 2015, and 0.2 percent lower than in February 2014.

For more detailed data, see the Excel tables in the ‘Downloads’ box.

9

 Definitions
About the overseas merchandise trade statistics
Overseas merchandise trade statistics provide statistical information on the importing and
exporting of merchandise goods between New Zealand and other countries.
Data is obtained from export and import entry documents lodged with the New Zealand Customs
Service. The data is processed and passed to Statistics NZ for further editing and compilation.

More definitions
Billion: is 1,000 million.
Capital goods: are produced assets that are used repeatedly or continuously, for longer than
one year, in industrial production processes. Examples are machinery, trucks, and aircraft.
cif: is the cost of goods, including insurance and freight to New Zealand.
Consumption goods: are goods used (without further transformation in industrial production
processes) by households, government, or non-profit institutions serving households.
Exports (including re-exports): are goods of domestic origin exported from New Zealand to
another country. Exports in this release are valued fob and are shown in New Zealand dollars.
Estimated values may be used for goods that are not already sold at the time of export entry
lodgement.
fob: is free on board (the value of goods at New Zealand ports before export).
Imports: are goods imported into New Zealand. Imports in this release are valued at cif and are
shown in New Zealand dollars. However, imports in table 1 are also shown at the vfd level, which
excludes the insurance and freight component.
Infoshare: is Statistics NZ's free online tool that gives you access to a range of time-series data.
Intermediate goods: are goods used up, or transformed in, industrial production processes.
Merchandise trade: covers exports or imports of goods that alter the nation's stock of material
resources. It includes goods leased for a year or more and excludes goods for repair.
Provisional: statistics for the latest three months are provisional, to allow late data and
amendments to be included.
Re-exports: are merchandise exports that were earlier imported into New Zealand and have
less than 50 percent New Zealand content by value.
Seasonal adjustment: removes the estimated impact of regular seasonal events, such as preChristmas purchasing, from time series. This makes the figures for adjacent periods more
comparable.

10

 Trade balance: is calculated by deducting imports (cif) from exports (fob). These two valuations
are not entirely comparable, because the cif valuation includes insurance and freight to New
Zealand, while the fob valuation excludes insurance and freight from New Zealand.
Trade deficit: occurs when the value of imports is more than the value of exports.
Trade surplus: occurs when the value of exports is more than the value of imports.
Trend: estimates reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series and are used to identify
turning points.
Two-way trade: is the sum of goods exported from New Zealand and goods imported into New
Zealand (exports + imports).
vfd: is value for duty (the value of imports before insurance and freight costs are added).

11

 Related links
Next release
Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2015 will be released on 29 April 2015.
Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form.
The release calendar lists all our upcoming information releases by date of release.

Past releases
Overseas Merchandise Trade has links to past releases.
Overseas Merchandise Trade by country is a trial one-off release using August 2014 data for our
top 50 trading partner countries.

Related information
Global New Zealand contains comprehensive annual trade statistics.
Overseas Trade Indexes measure the change in the level of prices and volumes of New
Zealand’s imports and exports.
Balance of Payments and International Investment Position measures the value of New
Zealand's transactions with the rest of the world, and provides a snapshot of the country's
international financial assets and liabilities.
National Accounts measure the values of a range of economic aggregates such as gross
domestic product, capital formation, and government and private consumption.
Economic Survey of Manufacturing provides an economic indicator of how the manufacturing
sector is performing.
New Zealand Customs Service is the government agency that ensures the security of our
borders.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade is the Government’s principal adviser and negotiator on
foreign and trade policy issues.

12

 Data quality
Period-specific information
This section contains data information that has changed since the last release.
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Number of working days
Data influencers
Foreign currency conversions February 2015

General information
This section contains information that does not change between releases.
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Merchandise trade – data source
Crude oil imports – effects of timing of recording
Exports – timing of recording and undercoverage
Seasonally adjusted series
Trend series
Broad economic category groups
New Zealand Harmonised System Classification
Standard International Trade Classification
Confidential items
More information

Period-specific information
Number of working days
There were 19 working days in both February 2015 and February 2014.

Data influencers
We imputed the value of aircraft imported in December 2014 based on the value of twin-aisle
aircraft imports. The imputed value has been revised in this release to adjust for exchange rate
movements.
See September 2014 quarter Data influencers section for our treatment of September quarter
aircraft imports.

Foreign currency conversions February 2015
Import values are converted from foreign currencies when import documents are processed by
New Zealand Customs Service (NZCS).
We convert values given in foreign currencies into New Zealand dollars, using weekly exchange
rates, when we compile the statistics.

13

 Currency conversions – February 2015
Foreign currencies to New Zealand dollars
Value in
Number of
Currency
foreign currency
exports
$(million)
USD
37,629
1,750
AUD
44,798
254
EUR
5,183
131
GBP
3,053
61
JPY
901
3,499
Other currencies
1,829
...
Total in foreign
93,393
...
currency
NZD
68,132
...
Total
161,525
...

2,354
267
200
125
40
53

Average
exchange
rate
0.7431
0.9507
0.6573
0.4895
88.04
...

3,038

...

885
3,923

...
...

Value in NZD
$(million)

Symbol: ... not applicable

In February 2015, we converted 161,525 export line entries worth $3.9 billion into New Zealand
dollars.
See Merchandise trade – data source for more information on the use of exchange rates.

General information
Merchandise trade – data source
We obtain data from export and import entry documents lodged with NZCS. Once processed by
NZCS, we receive this data.
We convert export values given in foreign currencies into New Zealand dollars, using weekly
exchange rates when the statistics are compiled. For exports, a rise in the New Zealand dollar
has a downward influence on prices and, as a consequence, quantities and values reduce.
Import values are converted from foreign currencies when import documents are processed by
NZCS. NZCS set the exchange rates each fortnight. These rates are prepared 11 days before
the start of the fortnight, so have a lag of 11 to 25 days compared with the daily rates published
by the Reserve Bank. For imports, a rise in the New Zealand dollar has a downward influence on
prices and an upward influence on quantities. The combined influence on values can be either
positive or negative.

Crude oil imports – effects of timing of recording
Imports are generally compiled by date-of-entry clearance by NZCS. NZCS entries are required
from up to five days before, to 20 working days after, arrival of goods into New Zealand. The
exception to this rule is for crude oil imports, which can have entries lodged later than 20 working
days after entry into New Zealand.
We estimate crude oil values for the latest month using actual quantities and country-of-origin
data (provided by NZCS, based on information from the refinery at Marsden Point), together with
estimated prices. These estimates for crude oil are replaced once actual entries are lodged with
NZCS.

14

 While all entries are provisional for the latest three months, and have the potential to be changed
by the importer/exporter within this period, changes are not common, and generally do not have
a material impact on the results. However, New Zealand has only a few ships carrying crude oil
arriving each month, and each ship represents a high proportion of the monthly total of imported
crude oil. Any variation in the data for crude oil resulting from a later lodgement date can result in
a significant revision to the value. Once we receive actual lodgements from NZCS, the value for
crude oil can be regarded as robust.

Exports – timing of recording and undercoverage
From 1 March 2004, NZCS has not allowed goods to be loaded for export until an export entry
has been lodged and cleared. A study undertaken in 2001/02 indicated that export entries not
being lodged might account for between 1 and 3 percent of exports at that time. There is a
possibility that the change in NZCS processes may have reduced this undercoverage, although
this has not been quantified.

Seasonally adjusted series
We calculate seasonally adjusted series monthly and for calendar quarters using X-13ARIMASEATS, which adjusts for outlying values and uses a centred moving average. The X-13ARIMASEATS package is an updated version of X-12-ARIMA, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Seasonal adjustment removes the estimated impact of regular seasonal events, such as preChristmas purchasing, from time series. This makes the figures for adjacent periods more
comparable. Seasonally adjusted figures are estimates and are subject to revision each period,
with the largest changes generally occurring in the latest periods.
Seasonal adjustment in Statistics New Zealand has more information.

Trend series
Time series can be split into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. Seasonal adjustment
removes the seasonal component, while trend estimation removes the seasonal and irregular
components. Trend estimates reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series and are
used to identify turning points.
We calculate the trend series using X-13ARIMA-SEATS. The length of the centred moving
average is selected automatically and can be 9, 13, or 23 months, depending on the relative
variability of the irregular component compared with the trend. A long moving average has the
effect of smoothing the trend series but slowing the response to underlying changes in growth
rates. A short moving average produces a trend series that is less smooth but quicker to identify
turning points.
To improve estimation of the underlying movement, we calculate the imports trend after
removing individual import items that have cif values of $100 million or more, such as large
aircraft and ships. The trade balance trend is calculated by subtracting the imports trend from the
exports trend.
We recalculate trend figures each month. Using new monthly data means that previously
published trend estimates are revised. These revisions mainly affect the latest months and can
be large if a trade value is initially treated as an outlier but is later found to be part of the
underlying trend.

15

 Broad economic category groups
Broad economic category (BEC) groups are arranged, as far as practicable, to align with the
System of National Accounts’ three basic classes: capital goods, intermediate goods, and
consumption goods. We categorise commodities in BEC groups on the basis of their main end
use. This means, for example, that all video recorders are treated as consumption goods even
though some are used in business. Similarly, all helicopters are treated as transport equipment
even though some are military goods (and are treated as such in the national accounts).

New Zealand Harmonised System Classification
From January 2012, we compile overseas merchandise trade data using the Harmonised
System classification (HS2012). Before January 2012, HS2007 applies.
See the Excel supplementary table in the 'Downloads' box for a summary of the effect of this
change on the overseas merchandise trade data.
The classification change means data users need to take care when analysing time-series data,
although changes from this review are not as significant as when HS2007 was introduced. The
supplementary table uses the HS2012 classification to estimate January 2011 values for
comparison. We made some assumptions to do this, so the results are not perfect, but the
process removes most of the effect of the classification change from the data.
We will use HS2012 within overseas merchandise trade statistics until the next five-yearly review
in 2017. Minor amendments may still occur on a quarterly basis.
Although the classification change potentially affects the published seasonally adjusted and trend
series, our investigations so far show a negligible effect. We will communicate any effects we
find when conducting our normal seasonal adjustment or trend series review processes.
HS2012 changes have been implemented in overseas trade indexes (OTI).
See Harmonised System 2012 and trade statistics for more information on how HS2012 has
affected overseas merchandise trade data.
See Harmonised System 2012 for information about the HS2012 classification.

Standard International Trade Classification
The Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) is an output classification that uses
Harmonised System (HS) codes at the six-digit level as building blocks. It was designed by the
United Nations as an analytical tool for economic analysis, and includes some simple
implications regarding level of processing. Published figures are at a high level of aggregation;
more disaggregated information is available on Infoshare.
Contact customer services at: info@stats.govt.nz for customised jobs using the SITC Rev 4
classification.
We compile overseas merchandise trade (OMT) statistics in close accordance with the United
Nations' International Merchandise Trade Statistics Concepts and Definitions. OMT data, after
adjustment, is used in the balance of payments and national accounts. The adjustments are for
coverage, timing, valuation, and classification.

16

 See Balance of Payments – Sources and Methods 2004 for more explanation.

Confidential items
Under Section 37A (d) of the Statistics Act, the Government Statistician may disclose details of
external trade, movement of ships, and cargo handled at ports. However, we understand that the
release of merchandise trade commodity information can, in some cases, place commercially
sensitive information in the public domain. We can provide a limited form of confidential status for
commodity items (at the discretion of the Government Statistician), on application by a company
or business.
In practice, all confidential HS codes are aggregated into the code 9809.00.00.00 in order to
protect their confidentiality and to maintain total export and import values. Any aggregations of
HS codes below this level, which encompass confidential 10-digit codes, exclude the confidential
value(s) for these codes.
The only aggregates that include the confidential codes are total exports, total imports, and the
total exports and imports by country.

More information
See more information about Overseas Merchandise Trade
Statistics in this release have been produced in accordance with the Official Statistics System
principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics for quality. They conform to the
Statistics NZ Methodological Standard for Reporting of Data Quality.

Liability
While all care and diligence has been used in processing, analysing, and extracting data and
information in this publication, Statistics NZ gives no warranty it is error-free and will not be liable
for any loss or damage suffered by the use directly, or indirectly, of the information in this
publication.

Timing
Our information releases are delivered electronically by third parties. Delivery may be delayed by
circumstances outside our control. Statistics NZ does not accept responsibility for any such
delay.

Crown copyright©

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. You are
free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and
abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or
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Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981. Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your
attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo.

17

 Revisions
Provisional values published on 26 February 2015 were updated. Merchandise trade statistics for
the latest three months are provisional so we can include late data and amendments.
Trade data can be revised for many reasons. For more information see:
Why overseas merchandise trade data can change
Investigating how overseas merchandise trade data can change after publication

Updates to overseas merchandise trade statistics
Published 26 Feb 2015

Published 25 Mar 2015

Change

$(million)(1)
Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports Balance
(fob)
(cif)
(fob-cif)
(fob)
(cif)
(fob-cif)
(fob)
(cif)
(fob-cif)
Month:
Nov 20
4,042 P 4,328 P
14

-285 P

4,041 F 4,324 F

-283 F

-2

-4

2

Dec 20
4,403 P 4,597 P
14

-195 P

4,405 P 4,603 P

-199 P

2

6

-4

Jan 20
3,698 P 3,641 P
15

56 P

3,677 P 3,644 P

33 P

-21

2

-23

Year ended:
Nov 20
14

50,423
P

50,917
P

-494 P

50,422
F

50,913
F

-492 F

-2

-4

2

Dec 20
14

50,077
P

51,257
P

-1,180
P

50,078
P

51,260
P

-1,182
P

1

2

-1

Jan 20
15

49,707
P

51,116
P

-1,409
P

49,686
P

51,120
P

1,434 P

-20

4

-25

1. Figures are calculated on unrounded data.
Symbols:
F final
P provisional
Source: Statistics New Zealand

18

 Contacts
For media enquiries contact:
Jason Attewell
Wellington 04 931 4600
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
For technical information contact:
Samisoni Makaafi or Morag Butler
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
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19

 Tables
The following tables are available in Excel format from the ‘Downloads’ box. If you have
problems viewing the files, see opening files and PDFs.
1.01
1.02
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Overseas merchandise trade, actual values
Overseas merchandise trade, trade balance – actual values
Overseas merchandise trade, seasonally adjusted and trend values – monthly
Exports by destination
Imports by country of origin
Exports of main commodities
Imports of main commodities
Imports by broad economic category (BEC) group
Exchange rates
Related series, livestock, cars, and crude oil
Exports and imports by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC)
Exports by top 10 HS categories, values – seasonally adjusted
Exports by top 10 HS categories, quantities – seasonally adjusted
Imports by selected HS categories, values – seasonally adjusted
Exports by top 10 HS categories, values – trend
Exports by top 10 HS categories, quantities – trend
Imports by selected HS categories, values – trend

Access more data on Infoshare
Infoshare allows you to organise data in the way that best meets your needs. You can view the
resulting tables onscreen or download them.
Use Infoshare
For this release, select the following categories from the Infoshare homepage:
Subject category: Imports and Exports

Next release
Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2015 will be released on 29 April 2015.

20