Project Myers

Confidential Draft Document
Work in process – for discussion purposes only
January 2015

 EY Disclaimer
Information contained herein has not been independently verified and is subject to material change based on continuing review.
Accordingly, the information contained herein is not intended to be and should not be relied upon as legal, auditing or accounting
advice.
The assumptions and underlying data were produced by the Charter County of Wayne (the “County”) and its management
(“Management”) and consist of information obtained solely from the County or publicly available resources. With respect to prospective
financial information received from the County, this information was not examined, compiled and agreed upon procedures were not
applied to such information in accordance with attestation standards established by the AICPA and no assurance of any kind is
expressed on the information presented. It is the County’s responsibility to make its own decision based on the information available to
it.
Management has the knowledge, experience and ability to form its own conclusions. There will usually be differences between projected
and actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected and those differences may be material. No
responsibility is taken for the achievement of projected results. Accordingly, reliance on this report is prohibited by any third party as
the projected financial information contained herein is subject to material change and may not reflect actual results.
Pension results are highly sensitive to underlying assumptions. To the extent the assumptions change and/or the experience differs
from the assumptions the projection will change. Pension projections are illustrative and should not be used or relied upon Wayne
County or any other party for budgeting or any other financial purpose.

Page 1

 Table of contents

Item
Executive Summary

Page(s) index

3

Financial Outlook

12

Long-Term Obligations

16

Appendix

18

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 2

  

 

 

Wayne County’s current financial condition is not sustainable in the long-term given the
sizeable General Fund structural fiscal deficit
Wayne County’s General Fund (“GF”) generated an average annual deficit of ~$50m (before DTRF transfers)
during the last 3 years. The accumulated unassigned deficit balance is projected to be ($161m) in FY15 and
($230m) in FY16 (absent transfers from DTRF) and continues to grow thereafter.
Historical and forecasted revenues, expenses, and general fund balance

►

The operating deficits have primarily been caused by:

Note: FY12A and FY13A balances are
per respective year CAFR, FY14-FY16
per Department of Management and
Budget monthly cash flow forecast
model, FY17-FY19 based on historical
trends.

•

21% reduction in property tax revenues between FY 2009 and FY 2014, for an average annual decline of 4.5%

•

Significant legacy expenditures, approaching $100m annually driven by an unsustainable defined benefit pension plan and continued
healthcare inflation

•

Historical and forecasted budget overruns in the Sheriff and Prosecutors Office

►

The County has attempted to address the deficits through the implementation of cost cutting initiatives including salary reductions,
healthcare benefits changes, and headcount reductions, but this has not been sufficient to prevent continued deficit growth

►

Recently, the GF has relied more heavily on transfers from the Delinquent Tax Revolving Fund (“DTRF”) to fund operating deficits, which has
seen increased activity/surplus as a result of the unusually high volume of foreclosure activity in recent years.

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 4

 The GF cash position is expected to be negative in the next 2 years. Pooled cash is expected
to decline and a liquidity crisis could materialize as early as August 2015
Historical and forecasted General Fund and general pooled cash position

►

The County’s liquidity is seasonal, with the majority of property taxes being collected in the fall of each year (high point in
September). During the Spring, liquidity is usually at its low point, and the County issues TANs to shore up liquidity.

►

Declining pooled cash balance: The lowest liquidity point for FY14 pooled cash was $22m in February 2014.
►

FY15 pooled cash is expected to reach a risk adjusted low point in August 2015 of $35m, breach a 5% cash contingency
balance in May 2016, and reach negative liquidity by June 2016.

►

Declining General Fund cash position: The GF position in pooled cash was ($49m) as of September 2014. The GF position
in pooled cash is expected to decline to as low as ($147m) in 2015 and ($143m) in 2016 if potential identified risks are
realized.

►

Despite transfers from DTRF to eliminate the GF deficit, the County’s liquidity position will continue to deteriorate in the
next 12 to 24 months without further action.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 5

 Preliminary 5 year cash flow projections based on current trends indicate significant cash
burn absent drastic budget cuts or significant changes to legacy liabilities
5 year cash flow forecast summary
$ in millions
General Fund revenues
General Fund expenditures
GF Operating surplus/(deficit)
Legacy expenditures
Pension
Hospitalization - Retiree
Total Debt Service
GF legacy expenditures
Potential risk adjustments
Issue/(Repayment) of TANs and other cash activity
GF cashflow before DTRF

Historical County Projections
2014A
2015P
2016P
539.5
495.4
488.4
(478.5)
(476.1)
(464.7)
60.9
19.3
23.7

Illustrative Trends
FY15-FY19
2017P
2018P
2019P Cumulative
488.6
496.7
508.3
2,477.4
(474.8)
(485.1)
(495.7)
(2,396.5)
13.8
11.6
12.6
80.9

(44.1)
(25.4)
(12.2)
(81.7)
(9.9)
(30.6)

(41.2)
(29.2)
(21.5)
(91.9)
(12.9)
(35.3)
(120.8)

(41.7)
(32.0)
(19.8)
(93.4)
(14.8)
(84.5)

(42.0)
(33.6)
(19.8)
(95.3)
(15.0)
(96.6)

(42.8)
(35.3)
(19.8)
(97.8)
(15.3)
(101.5)

(43.7)
(37.0)
(19.8)
(100.5)
(15.5)
(103.4)

(211.3)
(167.0)
(100.6)
(479.0)
(73.5)
(35.3)
(506.8)

92.1
61.5

152.7
31.9

39.5
(45.1)

33.3
(63.3)

30.9
(70.6)

29.7
(73.7)

286.1
(220.7)

Non-general fund cash activity - Sources/(Uses)
Non-General Fund cash activity
Delinquent Tax Revolving Fund
Other
Mental Health withdrawal from pool %

(22.8)
101.3
9.1
(16.4)

(34.4)
(78.2)
(18.5)
10.0

(34.2)
(16.0)

(20.7)
(16.0)

(20.7)
-

(20.7)
-

(130.7)
(78.2)
(18.5)
(22.0)

Non-General Fund cash activity 2
All funds cash flow

71.2
132.7

(121.1)
(89.2)

(50.2)
(95.3)

(36.7)
(100.0)

(20.7)
(91.3)

(20.7)
(94.4)

(249.4)
(470.1)

246.0
$156.8

156.8
$61.6

61.6
($38.4)

(38.4)
($129.7)

(129.7)
($224.1)

246.0
($224.1)

Delinquent Tax Revolving Fund transfer1
General fund cash flow after DTRF transfer

General pooled cash - beginning balance2
Remaining General Pooled Cash

113.3
$246.0

Legacy liabilities/
expenses should
be restructured to
help mitigate a
potential negative
cash position

Note: (1) $78m in DTRF transfers pending approval to be effective Mar15, (2) Excludes Trust and Agency cash activity and balance.
►

Risk adjusted net cash flow is forecasted to be negative each year during the forecast period, causing general pooled cash after
Trust and Agency balance to be negative in FY16 through FY19.
► Restructuring alternatives should be evaluated and implemented to right-size forecasted expenditures to a level appropriate for
forecasted revenues.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 6

 GF revenues are sufficient to cover operating expenditures. However, a significant level of
legacy expenses result in annual GF deficits of $50-100m
The General Fund’s FY15 projected deficit before transfers from DTRF is $73m. Legacy expenditures for the year are
projected to be $92m
►

Total General Fund operating revenues are forecasted to be $495 million in FY15. These revenues are appropriated for the following
departmental and non-departmental uses, totaling $568 million.

$600

Requires Additional Review
$495

$500
$147

($121)

$400
$300

$72
$276

($92)

($64)

$200

($131)
$100

Legacy Expenditures – ($92m)
($68)

$0

$153
($41)

($29)

($13)

($21)

($100)
($200)

Revenues
Key business
► Tax revenues
units:
► Grants and
► County Jail
contracts
► Court
► Other
Services
operating and ► Executive
financing
Division
revenues
► Roads

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Circuit Court
► Attorney fees
► Grant to
circuit court
through
General Fund

Other operating expenditures
► Juvenile Justice - $64m
► Other departmental - $131m
(includes: Management and
Budget, County Clerk, Health and
Human Services, among others)
► Other non-departmental - $68m
(Includes: building rentals
excluding jail related, Mental
Health Authority, Operating
Transfers Out to primary
operating funds)

Legacy expenditures (for GF and GF
subsidized funds)
Pension
► Normal cost and UAAL amortization
Retiree Medical Benefits
► Pay as you go disbursements only
Debt Service
► Includes jail debt service of $14m
*Note: legacy expenditures also include
certain expenditures of non-GF’s which are
subsidized by the GF through operating
transfers.

DTRF transfer
► Transfer to General Fund to
address annual deficit
Potential risks
► Increased expenditures:
Increased pension contribution
($5m), 1% expenditure
contingency ($6m), other
operating variances ($2m)

Page 7

 The County’s defined benefit pension plan is severely underfunded, and could continue to be
de-funded absent major changes to accrued benefits
The County’s defined benefit pension plan is severely
underfunded and are a significant burden on the County’s
financial condition.
► The funding level is 44% for County retirees and 58% for
airport
►

Total UAAL was $896M as of the 9/30/2013 valuation

►

This valuation results in the County’s required pension
contributions to be very significant as a percentage of active
wages
►

County contribution is 48.6% of payroll, mostly driven by a
high UAAL amortization (41.3%)

►

On average, for each active employee, the County has to
contribute $30k to the pension plan

►

Average member contribution rate is ~4.3% of pay which is
on the low side compared to other plans.

The County is considering changes to future accrued benefits.
These changes require bargaining with the unions, which in
some cases have language protecting them from any pension
changes until 2020.
The likelihood of success for changes to future accrued
benefits is very low given the bargaining requirement to
implement them.

Wayne County Defined Benefit Plans (1)
(9/30/2013)
County (2)
Participants
Active employees
Retirees
Total
Ratio Active/Retiree

Airport

2,055
5,308
7,363
0.39

Total

366
186
552
1.97

2,421
5,494
7,915
0.44

Active payroll ($m)
Average pay/EE ($k)

$
$

125.5
61.1

$
$

26.4
72.2

$
$

151.9
62.7

Retiree benefits paid ($m)
Average pay/retiree ($k)

$
$

123.7
23.3

$
$

7.7
41.5

$
$

131.4
23.9

Balance sheet
Actuarial asset value ($m)
Actuarial accrued liab ($m)
UAAL ($m)

$

672.3
(1,512.8)
$ (840.6)

Percent Funded
FY 2014 Contribution
Normal
UAAL
POAM Member Rate Adj.
EE Contrib
Total %
County contribution 1 ($m)
$
County contribution/active ($k) $

$
$

76.2
(132.0)
(55.8)

$

748.5
(1,644.8)
$ (896.3)

44.4%

57.8%

45.5%

11.6%
41.3%

6.7%
18.8%

10.8%
37.3%

-4.3%
48.6%

-0.7%
24.7%

-3.6%
44.5%

61.7
30.0

$
$

7.2
19.8

$
$

68.9
28.5

Notes:
1. Information based on the Sept 2013 Gabriel Roeder Smith actuarial valuation for
Wayne County
2. The MHA separated in 2013 but members continue to accrue service to 10/1/2014.
The analysis above for the County includes the MHA.

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 8

 Pension underfunding has deteriorated and illustrative projections (*) indicate funding could
drop to 39% by 2023 under reasonable assumptions and current contribution levels
The plan’s funded status has deteriorated from 95% to 45% from
2004 to 2013. Key reasons for this decline include:
► Ability to purchase years of unearned service at a discount for
some plan members
►

Retirement incentives which waived the retirement age
requirement

►

Plans were reopened and had an influx of members beginning in
2002 for Plan 5 members and 2008 for Plan 6 members

►

Retiree payroll increased by 48% from $88.7m in 2004 to
$131.4 in 2013

►

Average pension increased 51% from $15,851 per year in 2004
to $23,914 in 2013

►

County used an offset from the Inflation Equity Fund in lieu of its
contributions in 2011 and 2012

►

Plan did not achieve investment returns for multiple periods

Plan funding could drop to 39% by 2023 under the following
assumptions:
►

Assumed rate of return and discount rate of 6.75% (1% lower
than current valuation rate)

►

2% payroll growth and 2% benefit payment growth

►

Employer contributions maintained at 48.9% of payroll

►

Based on Market Value of Assets

►

No other actuarial gains or losses or design changes

►

These results are high level illustrative projections and should
not be used by or relied upon Wayne County or any other party
for budgeting or any other financial purpose

Illustrative projections assuming 49%
contributions and 6.75% rate of return

Illustrative projections assuming 49%
contributions plus $40m a year for 10 years
and 6.75% rate of return

In order to restore funding levels to 70% by 2023, the County would need to contribute an additional $40m annually for the
next 10 years, assuming a 6.75% rate of return.
(*)These are high level illustrative projections based on the 2013 valuation report and should not be used by or relied upon Wayne County or any other party for budgeting
or any other financial purpose. Funding levels as of 2013 differ from the Gabriel Roeder Smith Report due to the use of a lower rate of return and discount rate.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 9

 The County faces significant issues that will need to be addressed in the short term to
ensure the long-term financial stability of the County
Current Situation
Structural
GF Deficit

►
►
►
►

Pension

►
►

►
►

DTRF

►

Observations

Ending FY13 General Fund accumulated deficit of
$159 million
General Fund liquidity is negative and highly
dependent on DTRF transfers-in
Recent use of TANs to generate necessary liquidity
for operations
General Fund generates annual structural deficit of
$50m to $70m

►

UAAL currently at $850m based on Market Value
Downward trending funded status of pension plan –
around 50% funding level, declining every year since
2001
Contributions as a percentage of wages are
approximately 50%
Certain bargaining units have language protecting
them from further changes

►

The County transferred a total of $92 million from
the DTRF into the General Fund in FY 2014:
► $82m of equity
► $10m of excess auction proceeds

►

►
►
►

►
►

►

Jail
Project

►

►

Sheriff’s
budget

►

The County has spent approximately $150m of the
$200m raised in bonds to fund the construction of
the jail project
Currently contemplating the issuance of an
additional $170m to address cost overruns

►

Sheriff’s department operating variances, primarily
related to additional headcount requirements at the
jail, had an operating variance of $29.5m in FY13.

►

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

►

Potential for further deficits despite significant expenditure cuts
Property taxes likely to have limited to no growth given Detroit
reassessment process
OPEB payments likely to grow in the future absent further actions
Potential additional debt service from jail project needs to be
considered

Pension assets will become insufficient to cover retiree benefits
absent an acceleration of UAAL amortization, which would result in
significant additional contributions (currently at 50% of wages)
Changes to future accruals need to be achieved through bargaining
and therefore the probability of success is low
Changes to future accruals, even if achieved, will not address
significant plan underfunding
DTRF available transfers projected to decrease:
► $74.5m in FY15 (additional $78m pending approval)
► $39.5m in FY16 and declining transfer amounts to $29.7m in
FY19
DTRF transfers should be used only as a bridge to financial
sustainability, not as a fix to the General Fund structural deficit
Additional debt expected to increase debt service burden by
approximately $20m annually
Alternative of repairing existing facilities would require significant
funding that the County cannot afford
Sheriff’s department operating variances are projected to be
$12m - $15m annually, absent efficiencies gained from the jail
project

Page 10

 



..

 

Near-term liquidity risks
24 month forecast – cash pool risks overview
$ in millions
Property Tax
Other revenues
General Fund Revenue
Operating expenditures
Legacy expenditures
General Fund expenditures
Receipt of TANs
Other Sources/(Uses)
Property Tax TAN Repayment Reserve
Issue/Repayment of TANs and other cash activity
Revenues less expenditures and other cash activity
Potential risks to General Fund: 1
Increased pension contribution per actuaries
Incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
Anticipated operating variances
Contingency (1% of expenditures)
No new TANs issued
Potential Adjustments to General Fund
General fund cash flow before DTRF
DTRF transfer
Potential General Fund cash flow activity

FY15
$275.7
219.7
495.4
(476.1)
(91.9)
(568.0)
75.0
6.0
(116.3)
(35.3)
(107.9)

►

FY16
$268.5
219.9
488.4
(464.7)
(93.4)
(558.1)
75.0
(75.0)
(69.7)

(5.2)
[TBD]
(2.0)
(5.7)
(12.9)
(120.8)
152.7
31.9
(34.4)
(78.2)
(18.5)
10.0

(5.3)
[TBD]
(3.9)
(5.6)
(14.8)
(84.5)
39.5
(45.1)
(34.2)
(16.0)

(121.1)
($89.2)

(50.2)
($95.3)

Beginning pooled cash with risks

246.0

156.8

Ending pooled cash before risks2

169.7

89.2

Risk adjusted ending pooled cash 2

156.8

Cash (Use) / Source - Non-General Fund
Delinquent Tax - net (use)/source
Other (Uses)/Sources
Mental Health withdrawal from pool %

Non-General Fund and other cash activity2
Potential net cash flow activity

Negative cash position period (month)
Cash low point

n/a
$35.1

The County’s budget may not reflect the most conservative scenario of
cash flow activity. Accordingly, the following key risks were identified
to reflect a more conservative view of liquidity for FY15 and FY16:
►

Increased pension contribution from 48.62% to 56.17% due to an
accelerated amortization period of 20 years – ~$5m annually
►

►

Increase incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
TBD

►

Anticipated budget overruns – increased overtime and wages
related to the Prosecutor and other departments of – $2m to $4m
annually (Note: $15m of risk related to Sheriff overtime and
increased salaries and wages have been included in projections)

►

No new issue of TANs, which affects timing of cash flows, as the
County is projecting to issue $75m in TANs from March through
May and repay $75m from April through September

General pooled cash could reach a low of $35m in August 2015 and
reach a negative cash position by June 2016 if the aforementioned
risks are realized. Should any additional risks be realized in FY15 (e.g.
delay in property tax receipts, additional departmental overages,
etc.), then cash may reach a negative balance in FY15 or earlier in
FY16.

61.6
Jun - Aug
($20.3)

Note: (1) $15m in risk related to Sheriff overtime and increased salaries and wages included in
forecast, (2) Excludes Trust and Agency activity and balance.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 13

 GF unassigned deficit has benefited from DTRF transfers. However, preliminary projections
based on current trends indicate a potential shortfall of $274 million in the next 5 years
The risk adjusted GF unassigned deficit could reach ($274m) by 2019.

►

The GF structural deficit before consideration of risk adjustments could reach $398m for the FY15-FY19 5-year period.
Actual
2014

$ in millions
Revenues1

Projected
2015
2016

Illustrative trends
Total
2017
2018
2019 FY15-FY19

$539.5

$495.4

$488.4

$488.6

$496.7

$508.3

$2,477.4

Expenditures and other fund activity
Ending surplus/(deficit) before adjustments
Adjustments to budget
Increased pension contribution per actuaries
Incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
Anticipated operating variances
Contingency (1% of expenditures)
Subtotal Adjustments to budget
General Fund surplus/(deficit) before DTRF
DTRF operating transfer
Potential GF surplus/(defict)

(560.2)
(20.8)

(568.0)
(72.6)

(558.1)
(69.7)

(570.1)
(81.6)

(583.0)
(86.2)

(596.2)
(87.9)

(2,875.4)
(398.0)

0.0
(20.8)
92.1
71.4

(5.2)
[TBD]
(2.0)
(5.7)
(12.9)
(85.5)
152.7
67.2

(5.3)
[TBD]
(3.9)
(5.6)
(14.8)
(84.5)
39.5
(45.1)

(5.4)
[TBD]
(3.9)
(5.7)
(15.0)
(96.6)
33.3
(63.3)

(5.5)
[TBD]
(3.9)
(5.8)
(15.3)
(101.5)
30.9
(70.6)

(5.6)
[TBD]
(3.9)
(6.0)
(15.5)
(103.4)
29.7
(73.7)

(26.9)
[TBD]
(17.8)
(28.8)
(73.5)
(471.5)
286.1
(185.4)

Beginning unassigned deficit3
GF surplus/(deficit)
Risk adjusted ending unassigned deficit

(159.5)
71.4
($88.1)

(88.1)
67.2
($20.9)

(20.9)
(65.9) (129.2) (199.8)
(45.1)
(63.3)
(70.6)
(73.7)
($65.9) ($129.2) ($199.8) ($273.5)

(88.1)
(185.4)
($273.5)

2

Note: (1) Includes GF transfers in, and (2) includes GF transfers out and special items, (3) FY14 beginning unassigned deficit per FY13 CAFR.
►

The General Fund unassigned deficit may continue to grow if significant changes are not made to the County’s cost
structure.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 14

 Major Revenue Sources – Historical
Major Revenue Sources
►

Property Taxes accounted for 45% of General Fund Revenue at $282 million in FY 2014.

►

Other Tax Revenues accounted for 2% of General Fund Revenue at approximately $13 million in FY 2014.

►

Wayne County Revenue Sharing payments accounted for 6% of General Fund Revenue. Payments are projected to be $50
million in FY 2015.

Historical Revenue Trends
►

Property tax revenues declined 21% between FY 2009 and FY 2014, for an average annual decline of 4.5%.

►

Taxable value of real and personal property in Wayne County fell 24% during the same period with the largest declines in
residential (-29%) and industrial real (-32%) property.

►

Uncollected delinquent taxes tripled between FY 2009 and FY 2012 with net payments from the DTRF falling 72% during
the same time period from $26.1 million (FY 2009) to $7.4 million (FY 2012).

►

The County’s revenue sharing payments from the State were around $40-43 million the last 3 fiscal years but are
projected to increase 25% to $50 million in FY 2015.

Major revenue sources overview
Currency $ millions
Property Tax General Fund
% Change property tax
State Sales Rev General Fund
% Change rev sharing

►

FY 2009
$357.1
$0.0

FY 2010
$329.3
-7.8%
$38.7

ACTUAL
FY 2011
$300.0
-8.9%
$50.0
29.3%

FY 2012
$286.3
-4.5%
$37.9
-24.3%

FY 2013
$272.0
-5.0%
$38.2
0.7%

FY 2014
$281.7
3.6%
$40.0
4.9%

PROJECTED
FY 2015
$275.7
-2.1%
$50.0
24.9%

The County’s projected GF Property Tax collection assumptions for FY2015 through FY2019 appear to be reasonable, with
some moderate decline from FY2014 of $10m to $15m over the next 3 years.

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 15

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary of Long Term Obligations
Primary Government long-term obligations have decreased in 2014 as a result of the changes in retiree health
benefits, which resulted in a reduction of the OPEB UAAL.
Summary of Long Term Obligations
$ in millions

2013

2014

YoY
change

Governmental Activities Debt

$718

$732

$14

Business Type Activities Debt

$165

$153

($12)

Total Primary Government Debt

$883

$885

$3

Pension - County

$825

$854

$29

OPEB

$1,569

$1,334

($235)

Total Primary Government Long Term Obligations

$3,277

$3,074

($203)

Component Unit Debt

$2,268

$2,311

$43

$53

$56

$3

Total Component Unit Long Term Obligations

$2,321

$2,367

$46

Total Wayne County Long Term Obligations

$5,598

$5,441

($157)

Pension - Airport

Source: Debt Rollforwards, 2013 Annual Actuarial Valuation Report, 2014 GASB 45 Actuarial Valuation.
Note: 2014 Pension valuation was not available. County Pension value includes the Mental Health Authority.

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Total Primary Government Long Term Obligations
Governmental Activities
Debt
25%
OPEB
40%
Business Type Activities
Debt
5%

Pension - County
30%

Page 17

  

 

 

 

 

   

FY14 cash flow detail

$ in millions
Revenues
Property Tax Collection

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Actual
Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Total

$34.3

$7.1

$1.7

$30.4

$23.2

$21.1

$10.4

$6.1

$16.1

$12.3

$20.4

$99.5

10.1

8.2

11.4

5.9

9.5

4.1

12.6

0.2

6.9

3.7

10.5

2.4

85.6

6.9
51.3
-69.4%

9.5
24.8
-51.6%

9.1
22.1
-11.0%

13.1
49.4
123.4%

8.7
41.4
-16.1%

11.9
37.0
-10.6%

14.0
37.0
-0.1%

10.6
17.0
-54.2%

11.2
34.2
101.7%

11.6
27.6
-19.2%

21.6
52.6
90.3%

43.2
145.0
175.9%

171.4
539.5
0.5%

10.8
1.8
12.6

8.8
1.0
9.9

9.0
0.7
9.8

10.1
1.8
11.8

7.8
1.0
8.8

9.1
1.2
10.3

8.4
1.4
9.8

10.4
1.3
11.8

8.1
1.5
9.6

10.6
1.7
12.3

8.0
1.6
9.6

6.7
1.4
8.1

107.9
16.5
124.4

1.8
1.1
2.9

1.1
0.9
2.0

1.9
0.9
2.8

1.7
1.1
2.8

1.6
0.9
2.4

1.7
0.9
2.7

1.7
1.0
2.6

0.2
1.1
1.2

1.8
0.9
2.7

1.7
1.1
2.8

1.7
0.9
2.6

4.1
0.6
4.7

20.8
11.3
32.2

Operating Transfers Out
Juvenile Justice
Grant To Circuit Court
Other Operating Transfers Out
Operating Transfers Out - Total

4.4
9.8
0.0
14.2

4.4
4.6
0.4
9.4

4.4
4.6
(0.0)
9.0

4.4
9.8
0.1
14.2

4.4
4.6
6.1
15.1

4.4
4.6
0.0
9.0

4.4
9.8
1.2
15.4

11.7
4.6
2.0
18.3

5.3
4.6
1.2
11.1

5.3
9.8
1.3
16.4

5.3
4.6
1.2
11.2

5.3
4.6
17.2
27.1

63.7
76.0
30.7
170.4

Other Operating Expenditures
Services and Contractual Serv
Other operating expenses
Total Other Operating Expenditures

4.7
6.6
11.3

4.8
4.1
8.9

5.1
6.6
11.7

7.3
5.1
12.4

5.9
7.2
13.2

4.4
9.6
14.0

9.5
5.2
14.7

4.0
5.0
9.0

4.2
5.7
9.9

4.7
4.7
9.4

3.6
7.8
11.4

11.8
13.9
25.7

70.0
81.6
151.6

Total operating expenditures
% of revenue

41.0
79.9%

30.2
121.4%

33.2
150.4%

41.3
83.6%

39.5
95.5%

35.9
97.1%

42.5
115.0%

40.3
237.8%

33.3
97.4%

40.9
148.0%

34.8
66.1%

65.5
45.2%

478.5
88.7%

Legacy Expenditures
Pension
Hospitalization - Retiree
Total Debt Service
Total Legacy Expenditures

4.3
2.2
0.1
6.6

3.5
1.4
0.0
4.9

3.5
2.4
5.9

4.2
2.2
6.4

3.1
2.0
5.1

3.7
2.1
3.5
9.3

3.5
2.1
0.4
6.0

3.6
0.2
5.5
9.4

3.6
2.3
5.9

3.7
2.1
0.8
6.7

3.6
2.1
0.1
5.8

3.7
4.3
1.8
9.7

44.1
25.4
12.2
81.7

44.6
(3.2)

45.3
(8.3)

48.6
(11.6)

49.7
(32.8)

39.2
(5.0)

47.5
(19.9)

40.6
12.0

75.3
69.7

(184.5)

(192.7)

(204.3)

(237.1)

(242.1)

(262.0)

Grants and Contracts
Other Revenue
GF Operating Revenue
Revenue growth %
Operating Expenditures
Personnel
Salaries and Wages
Overtime
Total Personnel
Fringe Benefits
Hospitalization - Active
Other Fringe Benefits
Total Fringe Benefits

GF Expenditures
GF Surplus / (Deficit) before DTRF and risks
GF cumulative unassigned deficit before DTRF transfer and risks

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

47.6
3.8
(155.7)

35.1
(10.2)

39.1
(17.0)

(165.9)

(183.0)

47.7
1.7
(181.3)

(250.0)

$282.5

560.2
(20.8)

(180.3)

(180.3)

Page 19

 FY14 cash flow detail (continued)

$ in millions
GF cumulative unassigned deficit before DTRF transfer and risks

Oct-13
(155.7)

Nov-13
(165.9)

(0.7)
(46.5)
(47.2)

(1.5)
(1.5)

(43.4)
(153.7)

(11.8)
(165.5)

(10.9)
(176.3)

(11.8)
(188.1)

3.8
(184.3)

(18.8)
(203.1)

(43.4)
(155.7)
(153.7)

(11.8)
(165.9)
(165.5)

(10.9)
(183.0)
(176.3)

(11.8)
(181.3)
(188.1)

3.8
(184.5)
(184.3)

(18.8)
(192.7)
(203.1)

Non-General Fund - Cash Sources/(Uses)

(18.4)
32.4
2.8
16.8

(22.6)
7.3
7.4
(16.4)
(24.3)

0.1
2.6
10.9
13.6

(10.3)
(0.2)
(1.5)
(12.0)

(14.5)
6.4
(3.4)
(11.5)

14.0
16.3
(10.4)
19.8

All funds - Net cash flow

(26.7)

(36.0)

2.8

(23.8)

(7.7)

General pool cash - beginning balance

113.3

86.6

50.6

53.3

Remaining General Pooled Cash

$86.6

$50.6

$53.3

$29.5

Non P&L Cash activity
Receipt of TANs
Other Sources/(Uses)
Property Tax TAN Repayment Reserve
Non P&L Net cash flow
Potential risks
Increased pension contribution per actuaries
Incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
Anticipated operating variances
Contingency (1% of expenditures)
No new TANs issued
Subtotal Potential Risks
General Fund - Net cash flow before DTRF
Risk adjusted GF position in pooled cash before DTRF
DTRF operating transfer to GF
GF - Net cash flow with DTRF
Risk adjusted cumulative GF unassigned deficit with DTRF
Risk adjusted GF balance in pooled cash with DTRF
Non-General Fund cash activity
Cash (Use) / Source - Non-General Fund
Delinquent Tax - net (use)/source
Other (Uses)/Sources
Mental Health withdrawal from pool %

Dec-13
(183.0)
6.1
6.1

Jan-14
(181.3)
(13.5)
(13.5)

Feb-14
(184.5)
7.0
7.0

Mar-14
(192.7)
(10.5)
(10.5)

Actual
Apr-14
(204.3)

May-14
(237.1)

Jun-14
(242.1)

Jul-14
(262.0)

Aug-14
(250.0)

Sep-14
(180.3)

Total
(180.3)

25.0
(2.0)
23.0

(5.9)
(5.9)

25.0
6.5
(1.7)
29.8

25.0
(17.3)
(9.5)
(1.8)

9.3
(22.5)
(13.2)

75.0
(4.7)
(80.2)
(9.9)

6.2
(196.9)

(9.8)
(206.7)

(10.9)
(217.6)

9.9
(207.7)

10.2
(197.5)

56.6
(140.9)

(30.6)
(140.9)

6.2
(204.3)
(196.9)

(9.8)
(237.1)
(206.7)

82.2
71.3
(159.8)
(135.3)

9.9
(179.8)
(125.4)

10.2
(167.7)
(115.2)

9.9
66.5
(88.1)
(48.8)

92.1
61.5
(88.1)
(48.8)

3.5
(13.4)
5.8
(4.1)

(9.4)
11.2
(13.4)
(11.6)

3.6
(1.3)
(2.5)
(0.1)

(22.8)
101.3
9.1
(16.4)
71.2

66.3

132.7

17.7
17.7

19.6
1.0
13.4
34.0

8.4
(18.1)
(13.9)
(23.6)

3.3
57.1
13.8
74.1

1.1

40.2

(33.4)

145.5

5.8

29.5

21.8

22.9

63.1

29.8

175.2

181.1

179.7

113.3

$21.8

$22.9

$63.1

$29.8

$175.2

$181.1

$179.7

$246.0

$246.0

(1.4)

Source: Department of Management & Budget

Note: excludes Trust and Agency activity and balance.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 20

 FY15P cash flow detail

$ in millions
Revenues
Property Tax Collection

Actual
Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Forecast
Apr-15
May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

$23.8

$14.7

$1.7

$31.0

$23.7

$21.5

$10.6

$6.2

$16.4

$12.5

$20.9

8.1

5.2

8.8

2.8

8.2

1.0

12.3

0.7

8.5

4.4

12.3

(0.2)

72.3

8.4
40.3
-72.2%

11.4
31.3
-22.5%

9.8
20.3
-35.0%

13.2
47.1
131.4%

10.4
42.4
-10.0%

11.4
34.0
-19.8%

13.3
36.2
6.7%

9.3
16.1
-55.4%

12.6
37.5
132.3%

13.2
30.1
-19.6%

16.0
49.2
63.1%

18.3
110.8
125.3%

147.5
495.4
-21.6%

9.7
1.6
11.3

9.8
1.4
11.2

9.1
0.8
9.8

9.7
2.0
11.7

7.8
1.3
9.1

9.0
1.4
10.4

8.4
1.6
10.1

9.0
1.5
10.5

8.6
1.6
10.2

9.0
1.8
10.8

8.7
1.7
10.5

9.3
1.4
10.8

108.2
18.1
126.3

1.1
1.0
2.1

1.7
1.0
2.7

2.1
0.9
3.1

2.1
1.0
3.1

1.9
0.9
2.8

2.1
1.0
3.1

2.1
0.9
3.0

2.1
1.0
3.1

2.1
0.9
3.0

2.1
1.0
3.1

2.1
1.0
3.1

2.1
0.9
3.0

23.9
11.4
35.2

5.3
9.9
1.2
16.4

5.3
4.7
1.9
11.9

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.5

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.4

5.3
6.2
1.9
13.5

63.7
76.9
21.9
162.5

4.8
2.5
7.3

5.8
9.5
15.3

6.1
6.2
12.3

6.5
6.0
12.5

6.1
7.0
13.1

6.1
6.1
12.2

6.2
6.4
12.5

6.1
6.0
12.1

6.0
1.0
7.0

6.4
7.5
13.9

6.0
6.2
12.2

11.0
10.5
21.5

77.3
74.8
152.0

Total operating expenditures
% of revenue

37.2
92.1%

41.1
131.5%

38.7
190.1%

40.7
86.5%

38.5
90.9%

39.2
115.3%

39.0
107.7%

39.1
242.0%

33.6
89.6%

41.2
136.7%

39.1
79.5%

48.7
44.0%

476.1
96.1%

Legacy Expenditures
Pension
Hospitalization - Retiree
Total Debt Service
Total Legacy Expenditures

3.4
1.4
2.9
7.7

3.7
2.2
9.0
14.9

3.5
2.6
0.2
6.3

3.5
2.6
0.2
6.3

3.1
2.4
0.2
5.7

3.5
2.6
0.3
6.3

3.4
2.5
0.3
6.2

3.5
2.6
0.2
6.3

3.4
2.5
5.5
11.4

3.5
2.6
0.7
6.8

3.5
2.6
0.7
6.8

3.3
2.5
1.3
7.2

41.2
29.2
21.5
91.9

44.8
(4.5)

56.0
(24.7)

45.0
(24.7)

45.9
3.3

55.9
54.8

(92.6)

(117.3)

(142.0)

Grants and Contracts
Other Revenue
GF Operating Revenue
Revenue growth %
Operating Expenditures
Personnel
Salaries and Wages
Overtime
Total Personnel
Fringe Benefits
Hospitalization - Active
Other Fringe Benefits
Total Fringe Benefits
Operating Transfers Out
Juvenile Justice
Grant To Circuit Court
Other Operating Transfers Out
Operating Transfers Out - Total
Other Operating Expenditures
Services and Contractual Serv
Other operating expenses
Total Other Operating Expenditures

GF Expenditures
GF Surplus / (Deficit) before DTRF and risks
GF cumulative unassigned deficit before DTRF transfer and risks

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

47.0
0.1
(141.9)

44.3
(1.9)

45.5
(11.5)

45.2
(9.0)

45.4
(29.3)

45.0
(7.5)

47.9
(17.8)

(143.8)

(155.3)

(164.3)

(193.6)

(201.1)

(218.9)

(215.6)

$92.7

Total

(160.7)

$275.7

568.0
(72.6)
(160.7)

Page 21

 FY15P cash flow detail (continued)

$ in millions
GF cumulative unassigned deficit before DTRF transfer and risks

Actual
Oct-14
(92.6)

Nov-14
(117.3)

Dec-14
(142.0)

Jan-15
(141.9)

Feb-15
(143.8)

Non P&L Cash activity
Receipt of TANs
Other Sources/(Uses)
Property Tax TAN Repayment Reserve
Non P&L Net cash flow

6.0
(41.3)
(35.3)

-

-

-

-

Potential risks
Increased pension contribution per actuaries
Incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
Anticipated operating variances
Contingency (1% of expenditures)
No new TANs issued
Subtotal Potential Risks
General Fund - Net cash flow before DTRF
Risk adjusted GF position in pooled cash before DTRF

(39.8)
(88.6)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1.3)
(26.0)
(114.6)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(1.1)
(25.8)
(140.4)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(1.2)
(1.1)
(141.5)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(1.1)
(3.0)
(144.5)

(39.8)
(92.6)
(88.6)

(26.0)
(118.6)
(114.6)

(25.8)
(144.4)
(140.4)

(1.1)
(145.5)
(141.5)

Non-General Fund - Cash Sources/(Uses)

(0.7)
30.6
(18.5)
11.4

(14.5)
10.0
(4.5)

(10.2)
(10.2)

All funds - Net cash flow

(28.4)

(30.6)

(36.0)

General pool cash - beginning balance

246.0

217.6

187.0

151.1

$217.6

$187.0

$151.1

$149.9

DTRF operating transfer to GF
GF - Net cash flow with DTRF
Risk adjusted cumulative GF unassigned deficit with DTRF
Risk adjusted GF balance in pooled cash with DTRF
Non-General Fund cash activity
Cash (Use) / Source - Non-General Fund
Delinquent Tax - net (use)/source
Other (Uses)/Sources
Mental Health withdrawal from pool %

Remaining General Pooled Cash

Mar-15
(155.3)
25.0
25.0

Forecast
Apr-15
May-15
(164.3)
(193.6)

Jun-15
(201.1)

Jul-15
(218.9)

Aug-15
(215.6)

Sep-15
(160.7)

Total
(160.7)

25.0
(7.7)
17.3

25.0
(4.5)
20.5

(11.9)
(11.9)

(9.0)
(9.0)

(15.1)
(15.1)

(26.8)
(26.8)

75.0
6.0
(116.3)
(35.3)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(25.0)
(26.2)
(12.7)
(157.2)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(17.3)
(18.5)
(10.1)
(167.3)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(20.5)
(21.7)
(30.4)
(197.7)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
11.9
10.7
(8.6)
(206.4)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
9.0
7.9
(19.0)
(225.4)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
15.1
14.0
2.2
(223.2)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.6)
26.8
25.6
53.6
(169.6)

(5.2)
[TBD]
(2.0)
(5.7)
(12.9)
(120.8)
(169.6)

(3.0)
(148.5)
(144.5)

78.2
65.5
(83.0)
(79.0)

(10.1)
(93.1)
(89.1)

(30.4)
(123.5)
(119.5)

(8.6)
(132.2)
(128.2)

(19.0)
(151.2)
(147.1)

2.2
(149.0)
(145.0)

74.5
128.1
(20.9)
(16.9)

152.7
31.9
(20.9)
(16.9)

(0.0)
(0.0)

(4.4)
(4.4)

(3.4)
(78.2)
(81.6)

(1.3)
(1.3)

(6.8)
(6.8)

(8.5)
(8.5)

(2.2)
(2.2)

(6.6)
(6.6)

24.3
(30.6)
(6.3)

(34.4)
(78.2)
(18.5)
10.0
(121.1)

(1.1)

(7.4)

(16.1)

(11.4)

(37.2)

(17.2)

(21.1)

(4.4)

121.8

149.9

142.6

126.5

115.0

77.8

60.7

39.5

35.1

246.0

$142.6

$126.5

$115.0

$77.8

$60.7

$39.5

$35.1

$156.8

$156.8

(89.2)

Source: Department of Management & Budget

Note: 1. Includes $78.2m of DTRF transfers to the GF which is pending approval, and 2. Excludes Trust and Agency activity and balance.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 22

 FY16P cash flow detail

$ in millions
Revenues
Property Tax Collection

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Forecast
Apr-16

May-16

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep-16

Total

$24.0

$14.9

$1.5

$29.9

$22.9

$20.7

$10.2

$5.8

$15.7

$11.9

$20.2

$90.9

8.3

4.2

8.9

2.7

8.3

1.0

12.2

0.7

8.5

4.2

12.5

0.8

72.3

8.6
40.9
-63.1%

11.5
30.7
-25.0%

9.9
20.3
-33.8%

13.2
45.7
125.3%

10.5
41.7
-8.8%

11.6
33.3
-20.2%

13.2
35.6
7.0%

9.4
15.9
-55.5%

12.8
37.0
133.6%

13.0
29.1
-21.3%

16.3
49.0
68.1%

17.5
109.2
123.1%

147.6
488.4
-1.4%

9.2
0.4
9.6

8.3
0.4
8.7

8.6
0.2
8.8

8.6
0.6
9.1

7.8
0.4
8.2

8.6
0.4
9.0

8.3
0.5
8.8

8.7
0.5
9.2

8.3
0.4
8.7

8.7
0.5
9.1

8.5
0.4
9.0

13.6
12.9
26.5

107.1
17.6
124.7

1.2
1.0
2.2

1.9
1.0
2.9

2.4
1.0
3.3

2.4
1.0
3.3

2.1
0.9
3.0

2.4
1.0
3.3

2.3
0.9
3.2

2.4
1.0
3.3

2.3
0.9
3.2

2.4
1.0
3.3

2.4
1.0
3.3

2.3
0.9
3.2

26.4
11.5
37.9

5.0
10.1
1.3
16.4

5.0
4.8
1.9
11.7

5.0
6.4
1.8
13.2

5.0
6.4
1.8
13.2

5.0
6.4
1.9
13.3

5.0
6.4
1.8
13.2

5.0
6.4
1.9
13.3

5.0
6.4
1.8
13.2

5.0
6.4
1.9
13.3

5.0
6.4
1.8
13.2

5.0
6.4
1.8
13.2

5.0
6.4
1.9
13.3

59.7
79.0
21.8
160.6

4.7
2.6
7.2

5.8
9.2
15.0

5.9
5.4
11.3

6.3
5.2
11.5

5.9
6.1
12.0

5.9
5.4
11.3

6.0
5.6
11.5

5.9
5.2
11.0

5.8
0.3
6.1

6.2
6.7
12.9

5.8
5.4
11.1

10.9
9.5
20.5

75.0
66.6
141.5

Total operating expenditures
% of revenue

35.5
86.9%

38.3
124.8%

36.7
180.9%

37.2
81.4%

36.5
87.6%

36.9
110.8%

36.8
103.4%

36.8
232.1%

31.2
84.3%

38.6
132.5%

36.7
74.9%

63.5
58.1%

464.7
95.1%

Legacy Expenditures
Pension
Hospitalization - Retiree
Total Debt Service
Total Legacy Expenditures

3.5
1.5
2.3
7.3

3.8
2.4
9.0
15.2

3.5
2.9
0.2
6.6

3.5
2.9
0.2
6.6

3.2
2.6
0.2
5.9

3.5
2.9
0.2
6.6

3.4
2.8
0.2
6.4

3.5
2.9
0.2
6.6

3.4
2.8
5.4
11.5

3.5
2.9
0.6
7.0

3.5
2.9
0.6
7.0

3.4
2.8
0.6
6.8

41.7
32.0
19.8
93.4

42.8
(1.9)

53.5
(22.8)

43.3
(23.0)

43.7
5.3

70.3
39.0

(162.6)

(185.4)

(208.4)

Grants and Contracts
Other Revenue
GF Operating Revenue
Revenue growth %
Operating Expenditures
Personnel
Salaries and Wages
Overtime
Total Personnel
Fringe Benefits
Hospitalization - Active
Other Fringe Benefits
Total Fringe Benefits
Operating Transfers Out
Juvenile Justice
Grant To Circuit Court
Other Operating Transfers Out
Operating Transfers Out - Total
Other Operating Expenditures
Services and Contractual Serv
Other operating expenses
Total Other Operating Expenditures

GF Expenditures
GF Surplus / (Deficit) before DTRF and risks
GF cumulative unassigned deficit before DTRF transfer and risks

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

43.8
2.0
(206.5)

42.5
(0.7)

43.4
(10.2)

43.3
(7.6)

43.4
(27.5)

42.8
(5.7)

45.6
(16.4)

(207.2)

(217.4)

(225.0)

(252.5)

(258.3)

(274.7)

(269.4)

(230.4)

$268.5

558.1
(69.7)
(230.4)

Page 23

 FY16P cash flow detail (continued)

$ in millions
GF cumulative unassigned deficit before DTRF transfer and risks
Non P&L Cash activity
Receipt of TANs
Other Sources/(Uses)
Property Tax TAN Repayment Reserve
Non P&L Net cash flow

Oct-15
(162.6)

Nov-15
(185.4)

Dec-15
(208.4)

Jan-16
(206.5)

Feb-16
(207.2)

Mar-16
(217.4)

May-16
(252.5)

Jun-16
(258.3)

Jul-16
(274.7)

Aug-16
(269.4)

Sep-16
(230.4)

Total
(230.4)

25.0
(7.4)
17.6

25.0
(4.4)
20.6

(11.5)
(11.5)

(8.8)
(8.8)

(14.6)
(14.6)

(28.3)
(28.3)

75.0
(75.0)
-

-

-

-

-

-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.2)
(3.1)
(172.7)

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.5)
(1.3)
(24.1)
(196.8)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.2)
(24.2)
(221.0)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.2)
0.7
(220.3)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.1)
(1.9)
(222.1)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(25.0)
(26.2)
(11.4)
(233.5)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(17.6)
(18.8)
(8.8)
(242.3)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(20.6)
(21.8)
(28.7)
(271.1)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
11.5
10.4
(6.9)
(278.0)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.5)
8.8
7.6
(17.7)
(295.7)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
14.6
13.4
4.1
(291.6)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.4)
(0.7)
28.3
26.8
37.5
(254.1)

(5.3)
[TBD]
(3.9)
(5.6)
(14.8)
(84.5)
(338.6)

(3.1)
(24.0)
(20.0)

(24.1)
(48.1)
(44.1)

(24.2)
(72.3)
(68.3)

0.7
(71.6)
(67.5)

(1.9)
(73.4)
(69.4)

(11.4)
(84.8)
(80.8)

(8.8)
(93.6)
(89.6)

(28.7)
(122.4)
(118.4)

(6.9)
(129.3)
(125.3)

(17.7)
(147.0)
(143.0)

4.1
(142.9)
(138.9)

39.5
76.9
(65.9)
(61.9)

39.5
(45.1)
(65.9)
(61.9)

Non-General Fund - Cash Sources/(Uses)

(3.9)
(3.9)

(10.7)
(16.0)
(26.7)

(8.2)
(8.2)

2.9
2.9

(2.7)
(2.7)

(1.6)
(1.6)

(4.7)
(4.7)

(6.5)
(6.5)

(0.1)
(0.1)

(4.5)
(4.5)

4.9
4.9

(34.2)
(16.0)
(50.2)

All funds - Net cash flow

(7.0)

(50.9)

(32.4)

3.7

(4.6)

(12.9)

(8.1)

(33.4)

(13.4)

(17.7)

(0.4)

81.9

(95.3)

156.8

149.8

99.0

66.5

70.2

65.7

52.7

44.6

11.2

(2.2)

(20.0)

(20.3)

156.8

$149.8

$99.0

$66.5

$70.2

$65.7

$52.7

$44.6

$11.2

($20.0)

($20.3)

$61.6

$61.6

Potential risks
Increased pension contribution per actuaries
Incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
Anticipated operating variances
Contingency (1% of expenditures)
No new TANs issued
Subtotal Potential Risks
General Fund - Net cash flow before DTRF
Risk adjusted GF position in pooled cash before DTRF
DTRF operating transfer to GF
GF - Net cash flow with DTRF
Risk adjusted cumulative GF unassigned deficit with DTRF
Risk adjusted GF balance in pooled cash with DTRF
Non-General Fund cash activity
Cash (Use) / Source - Non-General Fund
Delinquent Tax - net (use)/source
Other (Uses)/Sources
Mental Health withdrawal from pool %

General pool cash - beginning balance
Remaining General Pooled Cash

25.0
25.0

Forecast
Apr-16
(225.0)

0.7
0.7

($2.2)

Source: Department of Management & Budget

Note: Excludes Trust and Agency activity and balance.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 24

 FY15 cash risk detail

$ in millions
Property Tax
Other revenues
General Fund Revenue
Operating expenditures
Legacy expenditures
General Fund expenditures
Receipt of TANs
Other Sources/(Uses)
Property Tax TAN Repayment Reserve
Issue/Repayment of TANs and other cash activity
Revenues less expenditures and other cash activity
Potential risks to General Fund:
Increased pension contribution per actuaries
Incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
Anticipated operating variances
Contingency (1% of expenditures)
No new TANs issued
Potential Adjustments to General Fund
General fund cash flow before DTRF
DTRF transfer
Potential General Fund cash flow activity
Cash (Use) / Source - Non-General Fund
Delinquent Tax - net (use)/source
Other (Uses)/Sources
Mental Health withdrawal from pool %

Non-General Fund and other cash activity1
Potential net cash flow activity

Actual
Oct-14
Nov-14
$23.8
$14.7
16.6
16.6
40.3
31.3
(37.2)
(41.1)
(7.7)
(14.9)
(44.8)
(56.0)
6.0
(41.3)
(35.3)
(39.8)
(24.7)

Dec-14
$1.7
18.7
20.3
(38.7)
(6.3)
(45.0)
(24.7)

Jan-15
$31.0
16.1
47.1
(40.7)
(6.3)
(47.0)
0.1

Feb-15
Mar-15
$23.7
$21.5
18.6
12.4
42.4
34.0
(38.5)
(39.2)
(5.7)
(6.3)
(44.3)
(45.5)
25.0
25.0
(1.9)
13.5

Forecast
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
$10.6
$6.2
$16.4
25.6
10.0
21.1
36.2
16.1
37.5
(39.0)
(39.1)
(33.6)
(6.2)
(6.3)
(11.4)
(45.2)
(45.4)
(45.0)
25.0
25.0
(7.7)
(4.5)
(11.9)
17.3
20.5
(11.9)
8.3
(8.7)
(19.4)

Jul-15
Aug-15
$12.5
$20.9
17.7
28.3
30.1
49.2
(41.2)
(39.1)
(6.8)
(6.8)
(47.9)
(45.9)
(9.0)
(15.1)
(9.0)
(15.1)
(26.8)
(11.8)

Sep-15
$92.7
18.1
110.8
(48.7)
(7.2)
(55.9)
(26.8)
(26.8)
28.0

FY15
$275.7
219.7
495.4
(476.1)
(91.9)
(568.0)
75.0
6.0
(116.3)
(35.3)
(107.9)

(39.8)
(39.8)
(0.7)
30.6
(18.5)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.6)
(1.3)
(26.0)
(26.0)
(14.5)
10.0

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(1.1)
(25.8)
(25.8)
(10.2)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(1.2)
(1.1)
(1.1)
(0.0)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(1.1)
(3.0)
(3.0)
(4.4)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(25.0)
(26.2)
(12.7)
78.2
65.5
(3.4)
(78.2)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(17.3)
(18.5)
(10.1)
(10.1)
(1.3)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
(20.5)
(21.7)
(30.4)
(30.4)
(6.8)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
11.9
10.7
(8.6)
(8.6)
(8.5)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
9.0
7.9
(19.0)
(19.0)
(2.2)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.5)
15.1
14.0
2.2
2.2
(6.6)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.2)
(0.6)
26.8
25.6
53.6
74.5
128.1
24.3
(30.6)
-

(5.2)
[TBD]
(2.0)
(5.7)
(12.9)
(120.8)
152.7
31.9
(34.4)
(78.2)
(18.5)
10.0

11.4
($28.4)

(4.5)
($30.6)

(10.2)
($36.0)

(0.0)
($1.1)

(4.4)
($7.4)

(81.6)
($16.1)

(1.3)
($11.4)

(6.8)
($37.2)

(8.5)
($17.2)

(2.2)
($21.1)

(6.6)
($4.4)

(6.3)
$121.8

(121.1)
($89.2)

Beginning pooled cash with risks

246.0

217.6

187.0

151.1

149.9

142.6

126.5

115.0

77.8

60.7

39.5

35.1

246.0

Ending pooled cash before risks1

217.6

188.3

153.5

153.6

147.3

157.3

164.4

148.8

120.9

91.9

73.5

169.7

169.7

Risk adjusted ending pooled cash 1

217.6

187.0

151.1

149.9

142.6

126.5

115.0

77.8

60.7

39.5

35.1

156.8

156.8

Note: (1) Excludes Trust and Agency activity and balance.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 25

 FY16 cash risk detail

$ in millions
Property Tax
Other revenues
General Fund Revenue
Operating expenditures
Legacy expenditures
General Fund expenditures
Receipt of TANs
Other Sources/(Uses)
Property Tax TAN Repayment Reserve
Issue/Repayment of TANs and other cash activity
Revenues less expenditures and other cash activity
Potential risks to General Fund:
Increased pension contribution per actuaries
Incremental pension contribution to avoid defunding
Anticipated operating variances
Contingency (1% of expenditures)
No new TANs issued
Potential Adjustments to General Fund
General fund cash flow before DTRF
DTRF transfer
Potential General Fund cash flow activity
Cash (Use) / Source - Non-General Fund
Delinquent Tax - net (use)/source
Other (Uses)/Sources
Mental Health withdrawal from pool %

Non-General Fund and other cash activity1
Potential net cash flow activity

Oct-15
Nov-15
$24.0
$14.9
16.8
15.7
40.9
30.7
(35.5)
(38.3)
(7.3)
(15.2)
(42.8)
(53.5)
(1.9)
(22.8)

Dec-15
$1.5
18.8
20.3
(36.7)
(6.6)
(43.3)
(23.0)

Jan-16
$29.9
15.9
45.7
(37.2)
(6.6)
(43.8)
2.0

Feb-16
Mar-16
$22.9
$20.7
18.9
12.6
41.7
33.3
(36.5)
(36.9)
(5.9)
(6.6)
(42.5)
(43.4)
25.0
25.0
(0.7)
14.8

Forecast
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16
$10.2
$5.8
$15.7
25.4
10.1
21.4
35.6
15.9
37.0
(36.8)
(36.8)
(31.2)
(6.4)
(6.6)
(11.5)
(43.3)
(43.4)
(42.8)
25.0
25.0
(7.4)
(4.4)
(11.5)
17.6
20.6
(11.5)
10.0
(6.9)
(17.3)

Jul-16
Aug-16
$11.9
$20.2
17.3
28.8
29.1
49.0
(38.6)
(36.7)
(7.0)
(7.0)
(45.6)
(43.7)
(8.8)
(14.6)
(8.8)
(14.6)
(25.2)
(9.3)

Sep-16
$90.9
18.3
109.2
(63.5)
(6.8)
(70.3)
(28.3)
(28.3)
10.7

FY16
$268.5
219.9
488.4
(464.7)
(93.4)
(558.1)
75.0
(75.0)
(69.7)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.2)
(3.1)
(3.1)
(3.9)
-

(0.5)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.5)
(1.3)
(24.1)
(24.1)
(10.7)
(16.0)

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.2)
(24.2)
(24.2)
(8.2)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.2)
0.7
0.7
2.9
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(1.1)
(1.9)
(1.9)
(2.7)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(25.0)
(26.2)
(11.4)
(11.4)
(1.6)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(17.6)
(18.8)
(8.8)
(8.8)
0.7
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
(20.6)
(21.8)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(4.7)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
11.5
10.4
(6.9)
(6.9)
(6.5)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.5)
8.8
7.6
(17.7)
(17.7)
(0.1)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.3)
(0.4)
14.6
13.4
4.1
4.1
(4.5)
-

(0.4)
[TBD]
(0.4)
(0.7)
28.3
26.8
37.5
39.5
76.9
4.9
-

(5.3)
[TBD]
(3.9)
(5.6)
(14.8)
(84.5)
39.5
(45.1)
(34.2)
(16.0)

(3.9)
($7.0)

(26.7)
($50.9)

(8.2)
($32.4)

2.9
$3.7

(2.7)
($4.6)

(1.6)
($12.9)

0.7
($8.1)

(4.7)
($33.4)

(6.5)
($13.4)

(0.1)
($17.7)

(4.5)
($0.4)

4.9
$81.9

(50.2)
($95.3)

(2.2)

Beginning pooled cash with risks

156.8

149.8

99.0

66.5

70.2

65.7

52.7

44.6

11.2

Ending pooled cash before risks1

163.9

114.3

83.1

88.0

84.6

97.9

108.6

97.0

73.2

Risk adjusted ending pooled cash 1

149.8

99.0

66.5

70.2

65.7

52.7

44.6

11.2

(2.2)

(20.0)

(20.3)

156.8

47.9

34.1

89.2

89.2

(20.0)

(20.3)

61.6

61.6

Note: (1) Excludes Trust and Agency activity and balance.

Note: Risk adjustments are preliminary and require further review.
WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 26

 Non-GF cash activity detail
Non-general Fund cash activity ($ in millions)
Fund
Fund Name
00201
County Road Fund
00469
Construction - Bldg Authority
00835
Circuit Court
00590
Downriver Sewage Disp.Sys
00266
Law Enforcement
00836
Friend of the Court
00221
County Health Fund
00401
Capital Programs
00265
Drug Enforcement Program Fund
00676
Health Fund
00677
Worker Compensation Self Insur
00821
Chapter 20 Drains - O & M
00598
Rouge Val Sewage Disp Sys
00599
N.E. Sewage Disposal Sys
00516
Parking Lots Fund
00297
Youth Services
00801
Regular Drain Fund-Maint.
Other
Total source/(use)

FY14
6.4
(17.3)
12.6
(10.7)
0.4
(2.8)
(3.7)
(5.2)
1.9
(1.9)
1.9
1.3
(1.3)
(1.2)
1.2
(1.2)
(1.0)
(1.9)
(22.8)

FY15
(21.4)
(0.4)
(0.2)
(3.1)
(0.0)
(1.1)
(2.8)
(0.3)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
0.0
(0.1)
(5.0)
(34.4)

FY16
(21.4)
(0.4)
(0.2)
(3.1)
(0.0)
(1.1)
(2.8)
(0.3)
(0.1)
(4.9)
(34.2)

YoY change
FY15 FY16
(27.7)
17.3
(13.0)
0.0
10.5
0.0
(3.5)
2.8
0.0
2.6
(0.0)
2.5
(2.2)
1.9
0.0
(1.9)
0.0
(1.3)
1.3
0.0
1.2
(1.2)
(0.0)
1.2
1.0
($3.1) $0.2
($11.5) $0.2

►

The above cash flow activity is for non-General funds – a
majority of which are intended to be self supporting.
Accordingly, actual fund activity may have non-cash
transfers such as a use of fund balance to cover deficit
amounts presented in the table to the left.

Source: Department of Management & Budget

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Page 27

 Historical operating variances
FY12 operating variances - General Fund
Final Amended
Actual
$ in 000's
Budget Expenditures
Prosecuting Attorney
38,038
40,759
Office of the County Executive
1,975
2,393
Register of Deeds remonumentation
410
588
Public safety:
County jail
85,227
110,544
Sheriff
29,560
31,567
Health and welfare:
Indigent Health Care
Medical examiner
Senior Citizen Services
Cooperative extension
Non Departmental:
General Fund Transfers
including Special Item
Economic Development
Total General Fund
Source: FY12 CAFR page 66

Amount Over
Budget
2,721
418
178
25,317
2,007

26,304
5,471
128
303

36,310
6,377
284
369

10,006
906
156
66

99,908
693
$288,017

134,101
892
$364,184

34,193
199
$76,167

►

The schedules to the left are excerpts from the
County’s CAFR for 2012 and 2013, which list total
expenditures in excess of 2.5% of the final amended
budget the General Fund.
► General fund operating variances from Public
Safety (Jail and Sheriff) decreased from $30m in
FY12 to $27m in FY13.
► Prosecuting Attorney operating variances
increased from $2.7m in FY12 to $11.5m in FY13.

FY13 operating variances - General Fund
$ in 000's
Adult Probation
County Elections
Office of the County Executive
Health and welfare
Prosecuting Attorney
Public safety:
County jail
Sheriff
Total General Fund
Source: FY13 CAFR page 60

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Final Amended
Actual
Budget Expenditures
2,039
2,105
1,917
2,032
5,435
5,733
335
360
31,029
42,518
89,131
30,950
$160,836

118,723
32,205
$203,676

Amount Over
Budget
66
115
298
25
11,489
29,592
1,255
$42,840

Page 28

 Sources and Assumptions
►

The preliminary financial projections (the “Financial Projections”) contained herein, its assumptions and underlying data are the product of the
Client and its management (“Management”) and consist of information obtained solely from the Client.

►

FY14A is unaudited and is subject to change.

►

The following are significant assumptions included in the FY15 and FY16 monthly forecast and FY17-FY19 Financial Projections:
FY14A-FY16F

FY17F-FY19F

Revenues (primary source: 2014 15 Cashflow model 11-18-14 vs. 3.xlsx)
►

Property
Taxes

Per File: 2014 12 22 - Property Tax Revenue Projection revised 12-22-14 to
include 2020 by PZ.xlsx, Adjusted from primary source to take into account
revised taxable values after impact of PPT legislation and lower reappraisal
values, assuming Oct’14 and Nov’14 of primary source were actual, with
consistent seasonality of model for remaining months of FY15-FY16 per
updated tax projections

Per new source file

►

Non-Tax
revenues

Growth assumptions per Department of Management and Budget model

Long-term growth assumption of
2.0%

►

DTRF
Transfers-in

DTRF transfers in Mar15 of $78.2m to be approved by commission, and
$74.5m and $39.5m in transfers effective Sep15 and Sep16, respectively to
be approved by commission.

FY17 – FY19 per Treasurer’s office
file “Estimated General Fund
Transfers 2015.01.14.xlsx”

►

Other
Financing
Sources

Consists primarily of Cobo Hall liquor tax, which is expected to stay at
current level if not grow larger

Assumed flat growth with FY16 at
$6.6m

Expenditures (primary source: 2014 15 Cashflow model 11-18-14 vs. 3.xlsx)
►

Personnel

Takes into account $15m related to excess Sheriff overtime and other
premium/differential pay

–

2.0% growth in Salaries and
Wages and Overtime

►

Fringe
Benefits

Split of Active and Legacy Hospitalization insurance:
– Active: 56%
– Retiree: 44%

–

5.0% growth for Hospitalization
2.0% growth for Other Fringe
Benefits

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

–

Page 29

 Sources and Assumptions (cont.)
►

The following are significant assumptions included in the FY15 and FY16 monthly forecast and FY17-FY19 illustrative trends:
FY14A-FY16F

FY17F-FY19F

Expenditures (continued) (primary source: 2014 15 Cashflow model 11-18-14 vs. 3.xlsx)
►

Operating Transfers
Out

Operating Transfers Out in the amount of the respective funds payments for
Hospitalization Insurance, and Debt Service transfers adjusted back into
Operating Transfers Out and reflected in Legacy expenditures for the
following funds:
– County Park; County Health; Comm Dev Blk Grant (CDBG); Juv Justice
and Abuse/Neglect; Circuit Count; Friend of Circuit Court; Probate Court;
HCS Nutrition; Community & Economic Development

–

2.0% growth

►

Other Operating
Expenditures

Rental related to Jail debt service adjusted out of Rental and included in
Legacy Expenditures Debt Service

–

2.0% growth

DB pension contribution
of 48.6% based on same
% of relevant Salaries
and Wages from FY16

Legacy Expenditures (primary source: 2014 15 Cashflow model 11-18-14 vs. 3.xlsx)
►

Pension

Includes “Retirement” and “Retirement – Ct Reorg”;

–

►

Hospitalization –
Retiree

Includes assumed retiree portion of Hospitalization costs and insurance as
noted in Fringe Benefits assumptions

– 5% growth

►

Debt Service

Includes: Jail debt service included in rentals; Transfers to the General Debt
Service Account; Principal, and Interest Payments from the GF

– Flat with FY16

Other Cashflow activity (primary source: 2014 15 Cashflow model 11-18-14 vs. 3.xlsx)
►

General Fund

FY14 includes actuals in October; additional analysis to be conducted by
County for remainder of FY15 – FY16

–

►

Non- General Fund

Includes Non-GF, Mental Health withdrawal from pool and other – additional
analysis to be conducted by Department of Management and Budget for
FY15-FY17

– Flat with FY16

►

DTRF Activity

Per Treasurer’s office file “Estimated General Fund Transfers 2015.01.14.xlsx”

WORKING DRAFT
Subject to Material Change

Flat with FY16

Page 30

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WORKING DRAFT page 31
Subject to Material Change