October 20, 2014 Bowser Holds 12-Point Lead in D.C. Mayoral Contest Survey Results To: Interested Parties From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research survey conducted on behalf of Economic Growth DC shows Muriel Bowser holding a double-digit lead over David Catania and Carol Schwartz in the race for mayor of Washington, D.C. 60% 40% 45% 33% 20% 12% 0% Bowser Catania Schwartz 7% Undecided 11% “Thinking about the election for D.C. mayor next month, if the general election for mayor were being held today, for whom would you vote -- Democrat Muriel Bowser, Independent David Catania, or Independent Carol Schwartz?” Bowser’s advantage is built upon the strength of her support among African American voters, who comprise a slight plurality of the electorate. The table on the following page shows that Bowser’s African American vote is triple Catania’s. By contrast, while Catania attracts a majority of the white vote, his margin among this bloc is significantly smaller; Bowser’s white vote share outpaces Catania’s African American vote. There is no gender gap in the race, with Bowser running equally as strong among men as women. WORLD HEADQUARTERS 10 G Street, NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 NEW YORK 54 West 40th St. New York, NY 10018 EUROPE 22 Bloomsbury Square London, UK WC1A 2NS L www.gqrr.com LATIN AMERICA Cabrera 6060, 7D C1414 BHN Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina CANADA 350-1 First Canadian Place Toronto Board of Trade Tower Toronto, ON MSK 1C1 Economic Growth DC: Polling Memo 2 Table 1: Vote By Subgroup, Percent Responding Bowser African American 57 Catania 19 51 32 35 Schwartz 14 9 13 10 White Women Men 32 45 46 Both Bowser and Catania are popular among the electorate, receiving nearly identical favorability ratings (48-27 percent favorable-unfavorable for Bowser, 46-23 percent for Catania). Mayor Gray is not well-liked (32-47 percent favorable-unfavorable), but voters are quite bullish about the direction of the city (57-30 percent right direction-wrong track). Though Bowser holds a solid lead, there is an element of fluidity left in the race. One-in-five voters in this electorate are weak Bowser supporters, and another 7 percent remain undecided. Further, as the following table shows, Bowser’s advantages on key images all fall short of her overall 12-point lead on the ballot. Table 2: Comparative Imagery, Percent Responding Bowser 36 Catania 28 Schwartz 10 Represents people like me 38 21 12 Will reduce crime and drugs 30 27 11 Will improve public schools 34 33 10 Will work with the business community to grow and create jobs 31 38 12 Represents a change from the current administration 28 40 13 Will improve the economy and create jobs in the District Now I'm going to read a list of phrases used to describe political figures. For each phrase, please indicate whether you believe it best describes Democrat Muriel Bowser, Independent David Catania, or Independent Carol Schwartz. 2014 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October, 2014 Economic Growth DC: Polling Memo 3 About The Survey Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted this survey among 800 District of Columbia voters likely to vote in the November 4th, 2014 election. Likelihood to vote was determined using a combination of a respondent’s actual vote history and their stated intent. The survey was conducted by live professional interviewers between October 16th and 19th, 2014. Forty percent of all respondents in the survey were reached on a cell phone. The sample is subject to a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval; margin of error is higher among subgroups. The sample for this survey was drawn randomly from a list of registered voters and stratified by ward within the city of Washington, D.C. Quotas were assigned to reflect the actual contribution of these areas to the total electorate. The sample reflects the demographic composition of the city’s registered voters per data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. Board of Elections, and several distinct voter files. It is 43 percent white and 48 percent African American. 2014 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October, 2014