EEDNIJMIE was FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Wednesday, October 1, 2014 Press Contact: Dave Oberting - 202.670.4403 If you are not a member of the press, please write to us at New Economic Growth DC CapitaIDecision2014 Poll Finds Bowser Lead at 8% 27% Still Undecided Poll Must Be Sourced: Economic Growth DC CapitalDecision2014 Poll For memo and full results, visit: WASHINGTON (October 1, 2014) - in the race for mayor of the District of Columbia, Democrat Muriel Bowser leads Independent David Catania by 8 percentage points among likely voters, 35%?27%. Independent Carol Schwartz trails at 11%. Twenty seven percent of likely voters remain undecided. Economic Growth executive director, Dave Oberting, said, ?This poll shows the race quite a bit closer than what was reflected in the Post/Marist poll released on September 18. Voters have started tuning in and we believe our methodology produced respondents who are somewhat more likely to actually vote.? The poll of 1,023 likely November 2014 voters was conducted by FrederickPolls of Arlington, Virginia from September 28th to September It was conducted using live calls to both landlines and cell phones. The poll sampled ?super voters? from the 2010 Mayor?s election, plus new registrants since 2010 from a District voter list. The margin of error is 60% of respondents have a favorable opinion of Muriel Bowser, followed by 55% favorable for Catania and 51% for Schwartz. 30% of voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Schwartz, followed by Bowser at 28% and Catania at 26%. In a head-to?head matchup, Bowser leads Catania 43%-33% with 24% undecided. Oberting commented, "This question surprised me a little. i would have expected Catania to benefit more if Schwartz were to drop out of the race. He actually does better with her in the race than out.? 81% of respondents indicated that it was very important to them that the next mayor bring a new ethical standard rooted in good government to their administration. David Catania was selected as best suited to implement this new standard with 34% of respondents choosing him. Muriel Bowser finished with 33% and 33% were undecided. Oberting said, "It?s no surprise that DC voters are concerned about ethics and the impact that?s had on the city over the last several years, but it appears that a significant number of voters are still undecided on who?s best suited to address those issues.? 83% of respondents would favor a law requiring the DC Council to study the economic impact their proposals will have on DC businesses and residents before they?re implemented. Oberting said, ?We?re pleased that the electorate is concerned about the costs that some legislation and regulation impose on residents and businesses. We?re preparing a bill that will call for a cost/benefit analysis to be prepared by the Chief Financial Officer on proposed legislation and rules. We?re glad there?s strong support for that." In April, 2014 the Global Strategy Group reported the following question from their polling: "Which candidate is most appealing to you personally?? A candidate focused on more economic growth? Or a candidate focused on less income inequality. Nationally, respondents chose the candidate focused on more economic growth by a margin of 80%-16%. The CapitalDecision2014 Poll asked essentially the same question. Respondents preferred a candidate focused on jobs and economic growth over a candidate focused on reducing income inequality by a margin of 54%-33%. Economic Growth Oberting commented, "As an organization focused on enabling faster growth, we found that question from 656 to be very interesting. District voters rank growth versus inequality a bit more evenly, but the preference for a candidate focused on growth is still pretty significant.? Economic Growth DC is a non-profit political and economic advocacy organization focused on the District and its economy. For more information, visit: Follow them on Twitter Contact Information: Dave Oberting Executive Director Economic Growth DC 202.670.4403 phone 1130 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 350 Washington, DC 20036 ENDS Poll Results 2014 DC Mayor?s Race Prepared for: Economic Growth DC Ballot Vote in the election for Mayor, which candidate -- Muriel Bowser, the Democrat, David Catania, an Independent or Carol Schwartz, an Independent -- do you support? (IF KNOW) Well, which one -- Muriel Bowser, David Catania, or Carol Schwartz -- do you lean most toward at this time? Muriel Bowser (D) 35 David Catania (I) 27 Carol Schwartz (I) 11 Undecided 27 Muriel Bowser holds an 8-point lead over David Catania, but with 27% of voters still undecided, the 2014 election for Mayor remains fluid. By Ward. Bowser holds solid leads over Catania in Ward 4 (39?18), Ward 5 (43-22), Ward 7 (46-13) and Ward 8 (46-12). Catania leads in the following Wards over Bowser: - Ward 1 (34-29) 0 Ward 3 (38-23); and 0 Ward 2 (41-29) 0 Ward 6 (33-29) UNDECIDED vote is high across all Wards ranging from 23% (Ward 5) to 35% (Ward 4) and equally high among African American and white voters. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104 Arlington, VA 22201 (703) 528-3031 (703) 528-1204 Keith@FrederickPolls.com Poll Findings October 1, 2014 Page 2 Candidate Ratings. Favorable Unfavorable Muriel Bowser 60 28 David Catania 55 26 Carol Schwartz 51 30 All three candidates have name recognition over 80% and are rated favorably by 50% or more. Bowser (60-28) and Catania (55-26) have similar ratings just over two-to-one positive. Candidate ratings among the 27% undecided are also similar -- Bowser 50% favorable, 26% unfavorable and Catania 51% favorable, 24% unfavorable. This suggests both frontrunners are equally acceptable choices for Mayor among the undecided swing vote in the electorate. Poll Methodology. Sample Size: n=1,023 completed interviews. Eligibility: Likely November 2014 voters.* Interview Dates: September 27-29, 2014. Margin of Error: Interview Method: Telephone, live callers; landline 72%, cell 28%. Sample and likely voter screen: District of Columbia ?super? voters who voted in at least one of the primary or general elections in the last 2010 Mayor?s race those newly registered since November 2010 were included in the poll sample. Respondents then only quali?ed if they passed two caller screen questions of: a) registered to vote in and b) "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote in the November mayoral election. Sample was quota- ed by Ward to re?ect turnout in 2010 Mayor?s race. Poll Sample Demographics: 0 Ward: 11% Ward1 - Race: 42% African American/Black 10% Ward 2 5% HiSpanic/Latino 14% Ward 3 53% White 15% Ward4 14% Ward 5 0 Gender: 49% Male 15% Ward6 51% Female 13% Ward 7 8% Ward 8 a Party Registration: 83% Democrat 6% Republican 10% Independent FrederickPolls October 2014 Toplines Job 2688 2014 DC Mayoral Election September 2014 Actual sample: 1023 3 A. Registered to Vote/Party ID. Democrat 83% Republican 6% Independent 1 0% B. Likely November 2014 Voter. Very likely 92% Somewhat likely 8% First of all, tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of each of these candidates for Mayor. Here is the ?rst one. 1. Muriel Bowser. Very favorable 24% Somewhat favorable 36% Somewhat unfavorable 17% Very unfavorable 11% DK/Refused 12% Favorable 60% Unfavorable 28% 2. David Catania. Very favorable 21% Somewhat favorable 34% Somewhat unfavorable 14% Very unfavorable 13% DK/Refused 18% Favorable 55% Unfavorable 26% FrederickPoHs October 2014 Toplines 2014 DC Mayoral Election Actual sample: 1023 3. Carol Schwartz. Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable DK/Refused Favorable Unfavorable Job 2688 September 2014 14the election for Mayor, which candidate - Muriel Bowser, the Democrat, David Catania, an Independent or Carol Schwartz, an Independent - do you support? Well, which one - Muriel Bowser, David Catania, or Carol Schwartz - do you lean most toward at this time? Muriel Bowser/Democrat 35% David Catania/Independent 27% Carol Schwartz/Independent 1 1% Undecided 27% 5. Second Choice for Mayor. Muriel Bowser/Democrat 16% David Catania/Independent 15% Carol Schwartz/Independent 23% Undecided 46% 6. And if this year?s election were just a choice between David Catania, an Independent and Muriel Bowser, the Democrat, which one - Bowser or Catania - would you vote for Well, which one - Bowser or Catania - do you lean most toward at this time? Muriel Bowser/Democrat David Catania/Independent Undecided 43% 33% 24% FrederickPolls October 2014 Toplines Job 2688 2014 DC Mayoral Election September 2014 Actual sample: 1023 5 7. In your opinion, how important is it for the next Mayor to bring a new ethical standard rooted in good government to their administration - very important, somewhat important, or not too important at all? Very important 8 1% Somewhat important 14% Not too important at all 3% DK/Refused 2% Total Important 95% 8. And which of these two candidates for Mayor - Muriel Bowser or David Catania - is best suited to implement this new standard? Muriel Bowser 33% David Catania 34% None/DK/Refused 33% 9. In general, which of these two candidates do you like best? One focused onjobs and economic growth. 54% One focused on reducing income inequality between the poor and very rich in DC. 33% Refused 1 3% 10. Lastly, would you favor or oppose requiring DC Council members to study the economic impact their proposals will have on DC businesses and residents before they make decisions? Favor 83% Oppose 9% DK/Refused 8% D1. Gender. Male 49% Female 5 1% rederickPolIs October 2014 Toplines Job 2688 2014 DC Mayoral Election September 2014 Actual sample: 1023 6 D2. Age. 18-29 3% 30?39 8% 40-49 13% 50-59 20% 60-69 24% 70-79 19% 80-up 10% Refused 3% D3. How long have you lived in Born here 15% Less than 3 years 1% 3-5 years 3% 6-10 years 7% 11-20 years 15% 21-30 years 14% More than 30 years 43% DK/Refused 1% D4. Is your total household yearly INCOME over or under $75,000? Over 55% Under 35% DK/Refused 10% D5. Hispanic. Yes 5% No 93% DK/Refused 2% D6. African American/Black. Yes 42% No 56% DK/Refused 3% rederickPoHs October 2014 Toplines Job 2688 2014 DC Mayoral Election September 2014 Actual sample: 1023 7 Phone Landline 72% Cell 28% Ward Ward 1 11% Ward 2 10% Ward 3 14% Ward 4 15% Ward 5 14% Ward 6 15% Ward 7 13% Ward 8 8% FrederickPolls October 2014