ANZ RESEARCH NEW ZEALAND ECONOMICS ANZ COMMODITY PRICE INDEX Data for May 2014, released on 4 June 2014 EVAPORATED MILK CONTACT: Weaker dairy, forestry and aluminium prices resulted in the ANZ Commodity Price Index posting a third monthly decrease in May. The headline index slipped 2.2 percent in the month, to be 5.8 percent below the record-high posted in February. Nine commodities reported a weakening in prices last month, seven commodity prices firmed over the month and one was unchanged. Steve Edwards Economist Telephone: +64 9 357 4065 E-mail: Steve.Edwards@anz.com Dairy prices led the falls. The international price of skim milk powder fell 7 percent over the month, wholesale cheese prices dropped 6 percent, whole milk powder prices eased 5 percent, and butter prices slipped 2 percent. Forestry prices also declined in May. Log prices eased 4 percent and wood pulp prices were 2 percent weaker. Aluminium prices fell 3 percent, and rounding off the declining commodity prices was a drop in the prices of casein and pelts, both easing around half of a percent. Looking at the bigger picture, dairy prices have now retraced to 14-month lows, with the overall price of the forestry sub-group easing to a 5-month low. However, it wasn’t all one-way traffic. Seven commodity prices recorded a lift in May, led by a 5 percent increase in wool prices. Fruit prices were also up, buoyed by a new season’s export crop reaching the Northern Hemisphere marketplace. Kiwifruit prices lifted 4 percent and apple prices rose half a percent. Sheepmeat prices moved up half a percent to reach a 2year high. Modest rises of up to a quarter of a percent were measured for seafood, sawn timber and beef. Nevertheless, while these were modest in magnitude, seafood prices touched a fresh record high, sawn timber reached a 6-year high, and the price level measured across the meat sub-group lifted to a 33-month high. The value of the New Zealand dollar was little changed in the month, resulting in the ANZ NZD Commodity Price Index, slipping 2.1 percent in May – a similar-sized drop to that of the headline commodity price index. The index is now nearly 13 percent below the peak measured in March 2011. ANZ COMMODITY PRICE INDEX Source: ANZ ANZ Commodity Price Index / Data for May 2014, released on 4 June 2014 / 2 of 6 ANZ COMMODITY PRICE INDEX SUB GROUP INDICES (WORLD PRICES) SUB GROUP INDICES (NZD PRICES) Source: ANZ Source: ANZ World Price Index Monthly % Change Annual % Change NZ$ Index Monthly % Change Annual % Change May-10 266.6 .. 47.3 203.7 .. 23.6 May-11 315.3 .. 18.3 216.8 .. 6.5 May-12 260.4 .. -17.4 182.5 .. -15.8 May-13 327.9 .. 25.9 213.8 .. 17.2 Dec-13 330.3 1.0 21.5 218.1 1.8 22.5 Jan-14 334.2 1.2 22.6 219.4 0.6 23.8 Feb-14 337.3 0.9 22.4 221.2 0.8 24.4 Mar-14 337.1 -0.1 14.0 215.5 -2.6 11.8 Apr-14 324.7 -3.7 -2.5 205.2 -4.7 -3.4 May-14 317.7 -2.2 -3.1 201.0 -2.1 -6.0 Commodity Price Index weights are based on contributions to merchandise exports. Weights for the 2014 year are: Wool 2.9%; Beef 8.0%; Lamb 10.4%; Venison 0.7%; Skins 2.3%; Dairy 46.8%; Apples 1.9%; Kiwifruit 3.3%; Logs 9.0%; Sawn Timber 3.7%; Wood Pulp 2.2%; Seafood 5.1%; Aluminium 3.7% ANZ Commodity Price Index / Data for May 2014, released on 4 June 2014 / 3 of 6 NEW ZEALAND’S LARGEST EXPORT MARKETS Table 2. NZ's Key Merchandise Exports, sorted by country and commodity, for the 12 months ended April 2014 India Netherlands Canada Vietnam Italy Belgium Egypt Fiji Venezuela Nigeria Algeria Brazil 1,527 ### ### 975 971 971 789 787 771 756 664 627 623 533 518 420 416 393 362 356 356 352 281 263 259 11 0 287 0 255 420 326 524 287 293 80 0 250 1 7 171 0 0 95 22 331 187 0 141 0 241 51 3 537 11 242 33 33 0 8 1 5 31 0 99 159 79 4 27 85 0 15 0 0 132 8 0 0 Logs 2,676 0 6 2,457 2 1,947 0 0 155 342 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 3 1 207 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Butter 2,567 205 431 511 434 389 92 63 16 16 5 43 0 67 65 93 70 100 43 23 0 83 8 6 81 0 166 150 8 2 24 1 106 1 2 Beef 2,111 117 172 646 96 184 12 897 171 116 30 33 11 140 34 71 24 19 11 34 0 30 34 73 3 11 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crude Oil 1,656 0 166 17 0 0 1,449 0 0 1 0 148 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 57 16 Cheese 1,458 67 183 602 119 140 221 6 89 39 11 0 39 16 19 1 61 10 0 8 0 18 42 3 11 0 0 18 0 2 Wine 1,320 431 28 58 7 23 381 319 14 2 319 21 15 1 3 1 6 1 2 18 0 0 34 80 1 1 7 0 2 0 0 11 0 1 0 1,308 172 154 425 7 170 41 366 206 40 2 38 134 9 26 53 0 10 26 1 4 5 15 11 1 3 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 Confidential Items 35 622 1 194 22 83 54 0 22 1,219 38 283 14 17 1 9 7 205 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 165 1 Non-Agricultural Machinery 1,155 110 92 82 43 44 443 162 10 9 41 35 27 3 17 7 29 9 12 14 13 6 10 30 11 3 5 0 52 0 3 7 0 8 0 Sawn Timber 1,128 33 173 329 24 161 330 170 73 54 2 4 4 41 14 21 10 39 31 1 3 14 19 1 63 0 1 0 7 0 0 2 0 0 0 Electronic Components 1,013 41 347 184 20 0 127 44 12 18 0 0 0 0 148 15 15 35 41 2 7 4 6 39 6 1 17 1 23 0 0 7 0 6 964 97 15 621 38 23 79 31 464 125 42 2 1 3 2 7 0 0 2 6 13 0 49 5 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 3 0 14 910 295 46 460 8 100 59 22 237 40 0 11 183 58 13 10 4 2 7 24 4 0 0 3 3 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 Pet Food 849 45 102 237 21 93 130 192 37 38 8 6 13 20 10 66 3 6 11 49 1 15 12 25 2 2 0 47 7 0 0 3 0 1 0 Gold-Jewellery 781 7 17 6 1 0 737 8 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 Wool 744 192 14 390 20 363 39 14 16 1 48 0 40 5 5 2 1 0 7 5 38 0 1 4 1 60 11 9 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 Fish 735 107 40 230 14 122 173 70 78 7 7 8 15 4 2 2 9 6 14 18 0 1 3 4 7 3 4 0 2 0 2 30 0 5 0 123 216 12 56 24 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Malt Extract 733 5 360 6 105 1 16 2 9 2 7 0 13 0 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 92 0 0 0 0 659 59 67 61 36 23 14 321 30 6 0 44 52 2 2 0 1 20 0 0 2 20 1 18 1 1 0 33 0 8 0 0 0 16 0 Wood Pulp 637 8 169 311 0 151 74 0 54 84 0 0 0 22 19 120 0 5 17 0 14 0 0 0 9 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Preps (Ex Sauce, Baked) 578 5 49 179 5 30 312 11 81 42 3 16 1 2 11 1 0 8 9 23 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Apples 551 196 100 84 25 13 0 81 6 0 64 17 57 41 13 7 22 1 46 23 21 0 54 13 16 1 0 0 3 0 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fresh Vege (Ex Spud, Onion) 495 7 30 145 2 3 222 22 117 14 2 5 2 5 17 1 0 1 5 5 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 1 2 0 0 483 33 33 39 3 22 270 46 6 4 22 4 2 1 11 3 1 6 7 6 2 1 1 4 2 1 2 0 15 0 0 2 0 1 1 28 13 0 3 462 0 1 86 92 3 0 1 1 1 0 51 225 9 23 1 0 9 1 34 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 Clothes-Footwear 442 20 8 10 4 4 343 23 3 0 9 2 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 1 3 4 1 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 Raw Hides 390 97 20 215 22 164 17 3 2 30 4 0 1 2 0 7 0 0 2 16 8 0 0 0 12 71 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 Respirators-Breathing Apps 366 96 5 35 7 11 24 125 14 8 16 1 30 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 46 2 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 1 0 Rolled Steel 345 0 10 23 0 0 114 105 3 15 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 18 4 0 0 22 0 Fibreboard-Plywood 327 0 38 220 0 20 39 15 195 1 0 0 0 4 3 21 0 9 1 0 5 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Iron 317 24 7 18 7 3 159 12 12 1 9 2 1 0 2 0 5 1 1 1 0 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 41 0 0 0 0 Ice Cream 296 12 143 72 18 45 19 0 22 0 12 5 0 2 9 2 2 79 47 2 0 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 59 34 4 5 0 3 0 25 65 4 22 76 9 15 7 8 2 3 0 3 1 16 17 0 1 5 9 1 1 273 0 258 5 4 9 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 16 20 7 6 75 72 5 4 9 10 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 5 3 3 3 6 0 0 2 0 6 0 0 4 0 1 0 Offal-Misc Meat For Humans 258 31 24 101 8 19 42 6 35 23 21 3 0 4 6 10 0 3 2 20 0 5 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 12 13 46 6 11 0 0 0 Misc Dairy 241 0 91 100 3 73 11 0 0 3 0 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Motor Vehicles 233 18 14 7 19 2 133 9 4 0 9 2 3 0 8 1 17 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 7 0 1 1 0 1 0 Beverages (Excl Wine) 232 3 5 13 2 2 164 18 1 8 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chemicals 229 49 21 61 2 38 7 15 1 2 9 11 9 34 11 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 4 0 10 0 0 0 3 1 Agricultural Machinery 227 35 2 11 3 8 37 70 2 0 9 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 29 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 7 0 Tanned Hides 205 153 6 31 1 10 5 0 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 15 9 0 0 0 1 150 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Medications 198 55 7 19 7 6 59 16 2 4 11 5 8 0 1 0 2 0 0 6 0 1 3 2 0 3 11 0 7 0 0 12 0 1 0 Venison 197 134 2 14 0 1 1 21 0 1 8 2 60 1 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 22 4 0 2 23 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 Honey 186 59 19 63 3 19 23 13 13 3 43 14 5 0 4 0 1 0 0 28 0 1 1 6 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Seeds For Sowing 183 99 7 22 0 5 19 14 7 8 8 0 9 1 0 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 56 2 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 12 1 0 0 175 0 4 0 0 1 0 Boats-Yachts 5 5 3 1 0 3 0 262 0 0 0 286 5 0 0 287 0 0 0 0 Molluscs-Mussels 9 2 0 0 Misc Equipment-Apparatus 0 5 0 0 Crustations-Rock Lobster 0 1 0 0 0 Plastics Paper 510 58 14 Whey Misc Goods 55 0 2 0 Kiwifruit 0 6 5 Aluminium 17 23 4 53 0 Casein 70 316 Sri Lanka Hong Kong 1,617 42 221 France Thailand 2,851 2 6 Saudi Arabia UK 4,118 72 803 Philippines Korea 9,093 5,180 177 UAE Japan 11,436 895 922 Indonesia USA 2,155 5,587 54 Malaysia Australia 17,661 1,802 1,278 Taiwan China 5,099 1 2,956 Germany Middle East 4,964 10,075 Sheepmeat Singapore NE Asia 50,611 Milk Powder Global Total TOTAL ALL ITEMS European Union SE Asia Regional Sub-totals 1 10 3 3 1 1 38 19 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 Fruit (Ex Apples, Kiwifruit) 167 4 15 32 0 7 105 6 10 4 1 5 1 10 1 0 0 0 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Insecticides 167 4 2 2 0 2 140 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 12 0 Sugar 164 8 20 13 1 4 62 13 5 1 2 0 0 0 6 9 0 0 4 2 7 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 4 0 Fridge-Dishwasher-Laundry 162 79 27 0 1 0 10 17 8 5 2 5 0 1 5 0 0 1 2 1 8 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 Scrap Metal 149 2 52 59 0 5 3 0 0 46 0 8 0 7 13 11 0 0 3 0 21 0 2 0 17 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 147 14 4 12 2 4 84 6 1 1 5 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 5 0 0 6 2 0 0 1 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 Horses 144 2 13 37 0 3 92 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tallow 134 1 86 42 0 42 0 0 0 0 1 79 0 0 2 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Bread-Baked Goods 133 4 3 3 1 1 117 1 1 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 132 1 1 0 1 118 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 132 0 11 2 2 0 108 0 0 1 0 9 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 129 0 4 27 8 5 79 5 20 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sauces-Soups-Infant Food 121 0 1 39 0 0 78 0 38 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Copper-Nickel 111 6 7 50 2 37 30 13 3 6 3 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stone-Ceramic-Glass 111 27 1 12 1 2 40 4 1 0 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 4 0 0 0 0 Chocolate 21 0 3 Carpets 4 0 0 Frozen Veggies 2 0 0 0 Furniture-Musical Instruments 1 1 0 0 Animal Blood 105 38 1 10 22 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 0 3 0 1 2 0 Onions 103 43 25 16 0 0 0 3 10 0 9 2 5 4 11 12 0 0 0 2 0 0 15 0 0 0 8 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 Aircraft 100 9 7 1 0 1 22 18 0 0 2 1 4 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 99 2 4 4 87 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 98 21 4 4 3 1 18 28 2 0 10 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 5 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 4 0 96 2 1 3 0 2 85 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 21 17 0 0 3 0 0 18 23 0 1 40 4 2 1 0 0 0 Iron Ore 82 3 1 63 0 47 15 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cosmetics 82 11 3 15 2 1 33 9 5 2 4 1 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 Coffee-Tea-Spices 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Soap 0 0 0 Medical Equipment 93 0 0 Misc Vege Prodts-Tobacco Misc Seafood 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 38 5 3 17 0 2 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 21 0 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 Flowers-Trees 69 12 3 35 2 4 3 10 27 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Salt 66 3 8 5 0 0 7 3 1 2 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Misc Cereal Preps 66 0 0 3 0 1 60 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Leather-Furs 64 5 37 5 3 1 11 1 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 33 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dyes 63 3 8 4 1 1 27 4 0 0 1 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 Live Animals ex Horses 63 0 3 50 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Arts-Antiques 58 22 1 3 0 1 11 0 1 16 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coal 55 1 13 2 0 2 12 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fibres (Excl Wool) 55 3 1 4 0 0 23 13 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Printed Materials 2 16 54 4 1 1 0 37 3 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 53 10 1 1 0 1 17 13 0 0 4 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 48 4 3 4 1 4 26 3 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sports-Games 48 9 2 3 0 1 20 7 1 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tools-Cutlery 0 1 0 Rubber 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Misc Metal 44 2 1 1 26 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 Oils-Fats (Excl Tallow) 33 3 2 7 0 1 13 1 3 0 2 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deer Velvet 32 0 0 31 0 19 0 1 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Misc Manufactured Goods 25 4 0 1 0 0 11 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Grain 21 8 1 6 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sub-Total: Meat 5,521 1,559 252 1,684 281 1,007 61 1,145 259 142 596 49 313 178 73 81 33 23 18 97 0 134 217 157 7 41 113 7 22 0 0 140 13 0 0 Sub-Total: Dairy 16,602 516 2,871 7,359 1,511 6,020 469 758 632 165 58 439 187 384 571 539 614 595 431 135 8 426 34 43 271 5 191 325 41 353 216 1 265 21 246 Sub-Total: Wool 744 192 14 390 20 363 39 14 16 1 48 0 40 5 5 2 1 0 7 5 38 0 1 4 1 60 11 9 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 Sub-Total: Skins 596 250 26 245 23 174 22 3 7 30 5 0 1 4 0 7 0 0 7 30 17 0 0 0 13 221 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 Sub-Total: Horticulture 2,817 705 240 832 45 140 594 165 442 68 91 45 275 123 58 30 30 6 70 60 28 2 156 23 29 36 12 0 32 0 0 29 3 3 2 Sub-Total: Processed Agric 3,403 525 378 716 40 380 826 543 73 60 338 118 35 77 73 74 10 25 27 126 3 20 60 109 60 6 11 49 12 2 92 14 0 2 1 Sub-Total: Forestry 4,768 41 386 3,317 26 2,279 442 185 477 481 2 5 4 78 37 162 10 53 52 2 229 15 19 2 77 3 5 0 8 0 0 2 0 0 0 Sub-Total: Aquaculture Sub-Total: ALL PRIMARY 1,401 169 87 590 19 405 252 154 97 23 14 36,302 4,023 4,292 15,321 1,966 10,857 2,799 2,995 2,020 983 1,199 NZ EU SEA NEA ME CN AU US JP KR GB 0 29 23 7 8 2 12 7 30 59 0 1 8 13 9 7 6 0 3 0 2 33 0 5 0 711 883 858 831 897 711 710 643 578 325 599 497 365 467 380 352 390 121 355 310 242 281 32 249 NL CA VN IT BE EG FJ VE NG FR DZ BR LK SG DE TW MY ID AE PH TH HK IN SA ANZ Commodity Price Index / Data for May 2014, released on 4 June 2014 / 4 of 6 NEW ZEALAND’S LARGEST EXPORT MARKETS Who gets What? NZ's exports, by commodity and largest markets Bubble size reflects the value of exports in the 12 months to April 2014 (larger values are labelled in $m) The colour fill indicates the percentage change from a year earlier (3mth/3mtht-12) Sheepmeat Beef Other Meat Pet Food Milk Powder Butter Cheese Misc Dairy Whey/Casein Kiwifruit Apples Other Fruit Wine Malt Extract Foodstuffs Tallow Wool/Carpet Skins/Hides Lve Animals Honey Logs Sawn Timber Fibreboard Wood Pulp Fish/Seafood Crude Oil Coal/Confidential Aluminium Gold Fiji Italy Algeria Italy Egypt Venezuela Belgium France +5% to +10% S.Arabia Canada Vietnam India Thailand UAE HK Ntherlnds -5% to +5% Taiwan Malaysia Germany UK Korea Japan USA -5% to -10% Philippines -10% or less Indonesia KEY: Singapore Source: ANZ, SNZ Australia China Other Metals Chemicals Plastic Paper Textiles Whitewear Agri Machinery Non-Agri Mach Electronics Transport Medical Misc. Over +10% ANZ Commodity Price Index / Data for May 2014, released on 4 June 2014 / 5 of 6 IMPORTANT NOTICE The distribution of this document or streaming of this video broadcast (as applicable, “publication”) may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons who receive this publication must inform themselves about and observe all relevant restrictions. 1. Disclaimer for all jurisdictions, where content is authored by ANZ Research: Except if otherwise specified in section 2 below, this publication is issued and distributed in your country/region by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ABN 11 005 357 522) (“ANZ”), on the basis that it is only for the information of the specified recipient or permitted user of the relevant website (collectively, “recipient”). This publication may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. It is general information and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Nothing in this publication is intended to be an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any product, instrument or investment, to effect any transaction or to conclude any legal act of any kind. If, despite the foregoing, any services or products referred to in this publication are deemed to be offered in the jurisdiction in which this publication is received or accessed, no such service or product is intended for nor available to persons resident in that jurisdiction if it would be contradictory to local law or regulation. Such local laws, regulations and other limitations always apply with non-exclusive jurisdiction of local courts. Before making an investment decision, recipients should seek independent financial, legal, tax and other relevant advice having regard to their particular circumstances. The views and recommendations expressed in this publication are the author’s. They are based on information known by the author and on sources which the author believes to be reliable, but may involve material elements of subjective judgement and analysis. Unless specifically stated otherwise: they are current on the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice; and, all price information is indicative only. Any of the views and recommendations which comprise estimates, forecasts or other projections, are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies that cannot reasonably be anticipated. On this basis, such views and recommendations may not always be achieved or prove to be correct. Indications of past performance in this publication will not necessarily be repeated in the future. No representation is being made that any investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those achieved in the past, or that significant losses will be avoided. Additionally, this publication may contain ‘forward looking statements’. Actual events or results or actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward looking statements. All investments entail a risk and may result in both profits and losses. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any products or services described in this publication. The products and services described in this publication are not suitable for all investors, and transacting in these products or services may be considered risky. ANZ and its related bodies corporate and affiliates, and the officers, employees, contractors and agents of each of them (including the author) (“Affiliates”), do not make any representation as to the accuracy, completeness or currency of the views or recommendations expressed in this publication. Neither ANZ nor its Affiliates accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to their notice, which may affect the accuracy, completeness or currency of the information in this publication. Except as required by law, and only to the extent so required: neither ANZ nor its Affiliates warrant or guarantee the performance of any of the products or services described in this publication or any return on any associated investment; and, ANZ and its Affiliates expressly disclaim any responsibility and shall not be liable for any loss, damage, claim, liability, proceedings, cost or expense (“Liability”) arising directly or indirectly and whether in tort (including negligence), contract, equity or otherwise out of or in connection with this publication. If this publication has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as e-mail, then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. ANZ and its Affiliates do not accept any Liability as a result of electronic transmission of this publication. ANZ and its Affiliates may have an interest in the subject matter of this publication as follows:  They may receive fees from customers for dealing in the products or services described in this publication, and their staff and introducers of business may share in such fees or receive a bonus that may be influenced by total sales.  They or their customers may have or have had interests or long or short positions in the products or services described in this publication, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales in them as principal or agent.  They may act or have acted as market-maker in products described in this publication. ANZ and its Affiliates may rely on information barriers and other arrangements to control the flow of information contained in one or more business areas within ANZ or within its Affiliates into other business areas of ANZ or of its Affiliates. Please contact your ANZ point of contact with any questions about this publication including for further information on these disclosures of interest. 2. Country/region specific information: Australia. This publication is distributed in Australia by ANZ. ANZ holds an Australian Financial Services licence no. 234527. A copy of ANZ's Financial Services Guide is available at http://www.anz.com/documents/AU/aboutANZ/FinancialServicesGuide.pdf and is available upon request from your ANZ point of contact. If trading strategies or recommendations are included in this publication, they are solely for the information of ‘wholesale clients’ (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 Cth). Persons who receive this publication must inform themselves about and observe all relevant restrictions. Brazil. This publication is distributed in Brazil by ANZ on a cross border basis and only following request by the recipient. No securities are being offered or sold in Brazil under this publication, and no securities have been and will not be registered with the Securities Commission – CVM. Brunei. Japan. Kuwait. Malaysia. Switzerland. Taiwan. This publication is distributed in each of Brunei, Japan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Switzerland and Taiwan by ANZ on a cross-border basis. European Economic Area (“EEA”): United Kingdom. ANZ in the United Kingdom is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”). Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and limited regulation by the PRA. Details about the extent of our regulation by the PRA are available from us on request. This publication is distributed in the United Kingdom by ANZ solely for the information of persons who would come within the FCA definition of “eligible counterparty” or “professional client”. It is not intended for and must not be distributed to any person who would come within the FCA definition of “retail client”. Nothing here excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer which ANZ may have under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or under the regulatory system as defined in the Rules of the PRA and the FCA. Germany. This publication is distributed in Germany by the Frankfurt Branch of ANZ solely for the information of its clients. Other EEA countries. This publication is distributed in the EEA by ANZ Bank (Europe) Limited (“ANZBEL”) which is authorised by the PRA and regulated by the FCA and the PRA in the United Kingdom, to persons who would come within the FCA definition of “eligible counterparty” or “professional client” in other countries in the EEA. This publication is distributed in those countries solely for the information of such persons upon their request. It is not intended for, and must not be distributed to, any person in those countries who would come within the FCA definition of “retail client”. Fiji. For Fiji regulatory purposes, this publication and any views and recommendations are not to be deemed as investment advice. Fiji investors must seek licensed professional advice should they wish to make any investment in relation to this publication. Hong Kong. This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by the Hong Kong branch of ANZ, which is registered at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) regulated activities. The contents of this publication have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. If in doubt about the contents of this publication, you should obtain independent professional advice. ANZ Commodity Price Index / Data for May 2014, released on 4 June 2014 / 6 of 6 IMPORTANT NOTICE India. This publication is distributed in India by ANZ on a cross-border basis. If this publication is received in India, only you (the specified recipient) may print it provided that before doing so, you specify on it your name and place of printing. Further copying or duplication of this publication is strictly prohibited. New Zealand. This publication is distributed in New Zealand by ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited. This publication is intended to be of a general nature, does not take into account your financial situation or goals, and is not a personalised adviser service under the Financial Advisers Act 2008. Oman. This publication has been prepared by ANZ. ANZ neither has a registered business presence nor a representative office in Oman and does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman. Consequently ANZ is not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Capital Market Authority. The information contained in this publication is for discussion purposes only and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 4/74) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree 80/98), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). ANZ does not solicit business in Oman and the only circumstances in which ANZ sends information or material describing financial products or financial services to recipients in Oman, is where such information or material has been requested from ANZ and by receiving this publication, the person or entity to whom it has been dispatched by ANZ understands, acknowledges and agrees that this publication has not been approved by the CBO, the CMA or any other regulatory body or authority in Oman. ANZ does not market, offer, sell or distribute any financial or investment products or services in Oman and no subscription to any securities, products or financial services may or will be consummated within Oman. Nothing contained in this publication is intended to constitute Omani investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice. People’s Republic of China. If and when the material accompanying this publication does not only relate to the products and/or services of Australia and New Zealand Bank (China) Company Limited (“ANZ China”), it is noted that: This publication is distributed by ANZ or an affiliate. No action has been taken by ANZ or any affiliate which would permit a public offering of any products or services of such an entity or distribution or redistribution of this publication in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). Accordingly, the products and services of such entities are not being offered or sold within the PRC by means of this publication or any other method. This publication may not be distributed, re-distributed or published in the PRC, except under circumstances that will result in compliance with any applicable laws and regulations. If and when the material accompanying this publication relates to the products and/or services of ANZ China only, it is noted that: This publication is distributed by ANZ China in the Mainland of the PRC. Qatar. This publication has not been, and will not be lodged or registered with, or reviewed or approved by, the Qatar Central Bank ("QCB"), the Qatar Financial Centre ("QFC") Authority, QFC Regulatory Authority or any other authority in the State of Qatar ("Qatar"); or authorised or licensed for distribution in Qatar; and the information contained in this publication does not, and is not intended to, constitute a public offer or other invitation in respect of securities in Qatar or the QFC. The financial products or services described in this publication have not been, and will not be registered with the QCB, QFC Authority, QFC Regulatory Authority or any other governmental authority in Qatar; or authorised or licensed for offering, marketing, issue or sale, directly or indirectly, in Qatar. Accordingly, the financial products or services described in this publication are not being, and will not be, offered, issued or sold in Qatar, and this publication is not being, and will not be, distributed in Qatar. The offering, marketing, issue and sale of the financial products or services described in this publication and distribution of this publication is being made in, and is subject to the laws, regulations and rules of, jurisdictions outside of Qatar and the QFC. Recipients of this publication must abide by this restriction and not distribute this publication in breach of this restriction. This publication is being sent/issued to a limited number of institutional and/or sophisticated investors (i) upon their request and confirmation that they understand the statements above; and (ii) on the condition that it will not be provided to any person other than the original recipient, and is not for general circulation and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Singapore. This publication is distributed in Singapore by the Singapore branch of ANZ solely for the information of “accredited investors”, “expert investors” or (as the case may be) “institutional investors” (each term as defined in the Securities and Futures Act Cap. 289 of Singapore). ANZ is licensed in Singapore under the Banking Act Cap. 19 of Singapore and is exempted from holding a financial adviser’s licence under Section 23(1)(a) of the Financial Advisers Act Cap. 100 of Singapore. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with the distribution of this publication in Singapore, contact your ANZ point of contact. United Arab Emirates. This publication is distributed in the United Arab Emirates (“UAE”) or the Dubai International Financial Centre (as applicable) by ANZ. This publication: does not, and is not intended to constitute an offer of securities anywhere in the UAE; does not constitute, and is not intended to constitute the carrying on or engagement in banking, financial and/or investment consultation business in the UAE under the rules and regulations made by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, the Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority or the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Economy; does not, and is not intended to constitute an offer of securities within the meaning of the Dubai International Financial Centre Markets Law No. 12 of 2004; and, does not constitute, and is not intended to constitute, a financial promotion, as defined under the Dubai International Financial Centre Regulatory Law No. 1 of 200. ANZ DIFC Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The financial products or services described in this publication are only available to persons who qualify as “Professional Clients” or “Market Counterparty” in accordance with the provisions of the DFSA rules. In addition, ANZ has a representative office (“ANZ Representative Office”) in Abu Dhabi regulated by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. ANZ Representative Office is not permitted by the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates to provide any banking services to clients in the UAE. United States. If and when this publication is received by any person in the United States or a "U.S. person" (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended) (“US Person”) or any person acting for the account or benefit of a US Person, it is noted that ANZ Securities, Inc. (“ANZ S”) is a member of FINRA (www.finra.org) and registered with the SEC. ANZ S’ address is 277 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10172, USA (Tel: +1 212 801 9160 Fax: +1 212 801 9163). Except where this is a FX- related or commodity-related publication, this publication is distributed in the United States by ANZ S (a wholly owned subsidiary of ANZ), which accepts responsibility for its content. Information on any securities referred to in this publication may be obtained from ANZ S upon request. Any US Person receiving this publication and wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to in this publication must contact ANZ S, not its affiliates. Where this is an FX- related or commodityrelated publication, it is distributed in the United States by ANZ's New York Branch, which is also located at 277 Park Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10172, USA (Tel: +1 212 801 9160 Fax: +1 212 801 9163). Commodity-related products are not insured by any U.S. governmental agency, and are not guaranteed by ANZ or any of its affiliates. Transacting in these products may involve substantial risks and could result in a significant loss. You should carefully consider whether transacting in commodity-related products is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and investment objectives. ANZ S is authorised as a broker-dealer only for US Persons who are institutions, not for US Persons who are individuals. If you have registered to use this website or have otherwise received this publication and are a US Person who is an individual: to avoid loss, you should cease to use this website by unsubscribing or should notify the sender and you should not act on the contents of this publication in any way. This document has been prepared by ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited, Level 7, 1 Victoria Street, Wellington 6011, New Zealand, Ph 64-9-357 4065, e-mail nzeconomics@anz.com, http://www.anz.co.n